Penetration requires bullet integrity, sectional density and velocity. Sectional density is the relationship between bullet diameter and weight. Assuming bullet integrity, the higher sectional density (heavier bullet for diameter), the deeper the penetration. The higher the velocity, the deeper the penetration.

You're showing about a 10% velocity increase and a 10% loss of sectional density. Penetration would be wash. I've got no experience with the XTP in .380, impressive expansion doesn't seem to be part of the design.

FWIW, I was looking at SD in the Sierra manual a couple of days ago. A 115 gr 9mm and 185 gr .45 have virtually identical sectional densities.