I wouldn't over think this. It all comes down to the budget.

The Bureau training budget has been reduced every year for the past decade or so. To its credit, the Bureau has not cut back on qualifications, so every one of the 14000 agents still burns about 1000 rounds a year. Add in SWAT guys who shoot more, HRT who shoot waaay more, and new agents in training who burn about 10K rounds each before graduation, and that is a lot of ammo. The cost of replacing guns every decade is small potatoes compared to all that pretty factory ammo.

The same "budget uber alles" rule affects the selection of guns. DAO means less time in training. The requirement for adjustable grip sizes means more justification for doing away with the personally owned weapons program.

Wait, say you - isn't it cheaper to let guys buy their own guns? Nope. I carry a grandfathered-in Sig. Because the gun vault does all maintenance (even on POWs) they have to have a Sig trained armored and keep parts on hand, just for me and maybe 100 other guys with POW Sigs. The "here's your gun, hope you like it" approach sucks to guys like me, but most folks don't care. It's worked for the Army for quite a while.

The change also has nothing to do with female agents. We had female agents in my class in 1991 in about the same proportion as we do now. We do have a lot more military veterans, both male and female, than we ever had.

One more and I'll shut up. The FBI issued round on 4/11/86 was a +P .38 Special. SA Dove had a 9mm Smith because he was on SWAT. The FBI continued to allow the use of 9mms without a break. I was issued a Sig P226 in the academy in 1991, which I gave back when I got my 220. Some kind of 9mm has been allowed during my entire career. What changed was the ammo. It's been a 147 grain of various makes over the years. I know I was issued Hydra Shoks at first, now I think it's a Gold Dot. But we never "abandoned" the 9mm.

Remember the B in FBI stands for Bureau, as in bureaucracy. When dealing with bureaucracy always think budget first.

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