Originally Posted by SLT223

What you suggest here definitely would not work for me if I were running such business. If business is booming and my plant manager (or anyone with production decision authority) suggested shutting in to widen supply demand gap (thus letting my competition fill it), that would illustrate to me he/she is unknowledgeable about things like asset optimization, managing supply contracts, filling market contracts, managing cashflow, and would be fired instantly. I would want to replace him/her with some figuring out how to make even more at an even lower cost with existing assets. You simply dont shutter production when business is booming unless you literally wore out the plant. You also dont shutter production during demand destruction unless you absolutely have to. Shut down and start up is simply too expensive and logistically complicated to do because of short term blips in market conditions for large scale manufacturing. I think perceived shortages in times like these are better explained by a change in purchasing behavior vs a change in manufacturing behavior. Nor do I believe the situation is exacerbated by manufacturing withholding supply for reasons stated above.

Changing logistics in large scale manufacturing to meet demand increase is a LONG lead time item, in most cases, that involves changes from suppliers and to the plant line. That’s capital expenditure and increased operating and variable costs. Its probably not something thats going to happen unless the manufacturer believes the surge is going to be around for a long enough time to pay back the expansion costs. Im pretty sure most folks in manufacturing see COVID as a short term surge / bust depending on what side of it you’re on, as in 2020 /2021 time frame issue. For reloading components maybe that outlook changes this November, but I doubt it.

Now all that being said, my knowledge is more specific to refined products than ammo components. They may be far more flexible than I can imagine, but deliberately slowing down when the market is making a historical call on your product doesnt add up to me. I dont think it adds to profit. I think it would make very uncomfortable conversation about earnings during a board meeting. I think manufacturing and with holding sales for perceived unknown future value vs selling into the current strength would lead to the same uncomfortable conversation.