100M a week is the number of rds all manufactures are making a CCI rep told me when I called today. He said they make 3 million a day. up from 2 mil a day in 2012. He said they have no plans on further expansion plans. He thought everyones closet and basement should be full by summer or there wallets empty. He also said if that many rds were being shot, it woudnt be safe for anyone to go outside. That's 14,700,000 a day, 7 days a week. This is a far cry from the numbers thrown around on the web. Either this is a sign of better things to come, or I am going to buy a backhoe for all the basement additions that are going to be needed. Me thinks sanity will prevail. BiggB

Those numbers sound about right! My wife is really starting to get upset about the basement, the garage is getting the overflow! I suppose I will have to post pictures?!
Ed

Thos number match what the NSSF and Wikepedia have listed for annual production.

The problem is that if there are 30-40 Million .22 caliber firearms in the US alone, that means there are only about 100 rounds built PER YEAR for each .22 cal firearm.

I've been shooting 3-5K per year for a while now.

I really don't see a light at the end of the tunnel on this.

But how many of those .22 caliber firearms see actual use? I have 8 firearms that are .22lr, but out of those, only 3 really see a lot of use.

So, if we use your number of 30-40 million firearms, but only half of them see use, that brings us down to 15-20 million firearms, and about 300 rounds produced for each one per year.

Feel better now?

Well,I probably have 3-4k rounds stuck away as does my son and we are just backwoods plinkers.I can't imagine where it all went...

No matter who says what, the bottom line is that .22 ammo is scarce and expensive when it should not be.

Nope, cuz the other half is shooting a brick a month.....

The 30-40 million number might be low. Ruger built upwards of 5 million 10-22 units. Marlin has built over 11 million Model 60 rifles so just those two alone are over half of the low end number I suggested....

That's a brick for every 10 million 22lr shooters per year. The more I look at this is unless everyone doesn't petition CCI and other manufacters to up production, this is a long term problem. They are not believing the demand is there. wake up or pay the prices and lack of ammo. We need to call or e-mail them. BiggB

The solution will be wives! I know mine thinks 17,000 rds of 22 is plenty plus all the other calibers. This year will be the test to how many we need. 2 kids got m&p 15-22 ar. If they dont shoot much, we are good for a long time. If they shoot alot, back to walmart!

Since I saw it coming I was proactive. In late 2012 WalMart had shelves full. Every time I went there I bought 5 bricks and stocked up. I never took the last of their stock - they had many more bricks left. Tghis was all before the crisis.

Sure more guns were sold in the past year, but you can't convince me that the increase in guns or shooters is more than a few percent compared to 2012. Thus, the true demand (what's being shot) hasn't really increased at all.

There's more to it than we are being told. If production is truly at high levels where is it all going? Its hard to hoard it when the shelves are bare.

I probably shoot a few hundred rounds of .22 ammo in a month. I don't get out much in the winter and when I do, I don't shoot as much. Of the people I know that shoot, most shoot less than I do and a few shoot a lot more.
I currently have somewhere north of 6000 rounds of .22lr so I am good for awhile...so long as this zaniness doesn't continue for too long. If everyone would just buy a brick or two when they find some instead of buying the maximum allowed. The key to the problem is the those who pay the inflated prices, so long as they keep it up the problem will continue.

I've said all along the producers are the problem. I still believe that and if the OP is to be believed (or his source), its an admission they are the problem. People want ammo, and they can't get it. The producers and their apologists are saying the buyers that want the ammo are the problem. But if they have the money and the willingness to purchase, the suppliers are the ones not doing their job. Its an in your face kind of answer for a guy who's job is to produce and he won't do that.

Worse, this nonsense has been going on for 16 months now with no end in sight. As long as the producers have been limiting production there seems to be no issue with where the problem lies. Its kind of a shame that some foreign company doesn't enter the market in a big way. I'm not sure why we should show loyalty to companies that won't take steps to solve the problem.

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Dick Burg

I try to shoot 25,000 .22s a year. I like the Win. X22LR and I have had trouble finding them for the last 3 or 4 years. If is also hard to find powder and primers for center fire guns. If something doesn't happen soon I'm going to be out of the shooting business. Larry

My bet is your kids will run through your stash before you know it.

Looks like they will be missing out on sales. I guess they forgot about all of the new shooters.

Nothing is forever. At some point we'll see the pendulum swing the other way when people start shooting what they've squirreled away (and stop buying), and then watch sales crash. Manufacturers might be guessing the same thing - that might explain why, except for Remington, none of them are spending much on infrastructure to increase manufacturing capacity.

I hope they do. That means they are outside doing something fun and not on thier ipad or xbox.

where is it moved to? OK found it this makes sense now. My point is unless we push for more 22lr production to the manufacturers, they are not stepping up, with the exception of Remington. Make some calls or e-mails if you want to find 22lr.

last Saturday at Cabela's they had 300+ bricks of various 22's as part of a sale , one brick per customer. they were all gone in less than 25 minutes. there was over 400 people waiting to get into the store when the doors opened at 8:00. when I was in there it seemed like everybody and their brother was carrying a brick of 22's of some kind. I don't even bother looking for 22 ammo these days. I have about 200 rounds just in case I decide to shoot my dad's old Mossberg. all I shoot now is the Springfield Range Officer in 45 acp

I would agree with you if the demand had not increased but it did and that is our problem. The huge number of new shooters. The manufacturing capacity today cannot keep up with demand for any caliber let alone 22lr. If it wasn't for imports the ammo shelves would be empty.

Thats less than one round per shooter per week. As far as the wallet statement that is what they were saying over year ago so I guess that statement is worthless.

From the original post...
That is a 50% increase in production. I am betting that CCI is not alone. What more can you ask from the producer? Are you willing to pay a higher price to cover increased production costs for new production lines, or more workers to keep lines moving 24/7 indefinitely?

Not sure where you are shopping, but other calibers are not an issue. I can walk into Academy, Walmart, Cabela's, etc. and pick up everything else.

Yes, the stats also show more households own a gun, but that doesn't necessarily mean a huge increase in .22lr firearm sales. I know lots of folks who became gun owners after the Colorado and the Sandy Hook incidents... They bought AR-15s, not .22lr. New gun owners are purchasing for protection and concealed carry as well. Those purchasers are also not buying .22 firearms.

The .22lr demand we have seen in the market has been driven by speculation, not actual use. You have people purchasing the cheap ammo at the retailer to flip for profit. I went to Academy the other day and they had quite a bit of match grade .22lr... why, because the price is higher and the flippers can't make money on it.

You also have folks stockpiling due to shortage, political climate, etc. Once these people reach their limit, they will drop from the market as well.

If you follow the forums and ammo threads, you can already see a trend of decreased demand. The flippers were getting $100 for bricks of ammo at gun shows, now their prices have come down to the $40 to $60 range. Many have commented that they have built their stockpile to a level where they feel comfortable and are no longer chasing .22. It is slow, but the trends are showing decreasing demand.

re: "If everyone would just buy a brick or two when they find some instead of buying the maximum allowed."

there IS no 'brick or two' in my normal ammo supply stores....the closest to a retail 'brick' I have been in the past 3 years was a few weeks ago at Cabelas where Norma Target 22LR brick was $54 (limit ONE).

Most often IF any 22LR is on the shelf, it is the 50/box.

None of the WM in 20 miles ever has 22LR on the shelf no matter what time I visit. BiMart rarely has some, and "limit 2" makes it tough to do any level of 'hoarding'. Local gun shows have usually around 10 cents/round of various econo brands, with any target stuff easily double that.

I talked with the Midway order guy last week on my attempt to get on the 'notify' list. The last 6 months every 'notify' notice I get has a second 'notice of sold out' immediately following. He said there was no point in expecting any benefit to getting on the 'notify' list as the back order supply is unpredictable.

So it goes.

__________________
Dum vivimus Vivamas

I've been doing the waiting in line thing since Jan of 2013. What started out as an attempt to get ammo quickly became a social thing then became an intellectual exercise. What I'm seeing are new shooters are constantly coming into the hobby. People show up and wait in line for a few months until they eventually get their basic stash. They then start showing up occasionally then stop coming all together. Those that have left though are replaced by new people. While the faces have changed the numbers waiting to get ammo have not and it is still going on to this day.
People are still checking multiple places during their search to include online searches.

As it stands today the lines have not gone away. The faces have changed but the numbers have not. The amount of ammo being delivered has fallen from a year ago. The manufactures better understand what is happening. Our hobby is growing by leaps and bounds and if the manufactures do not get on the ball and increase production they will do more damage to us than the anti gunners could ever hope to do.

BTW I have not seen any one in line selling ammo at a local gunshow.

I hope when this is over that most on this web site will not ever get caught with their shorts down again.
You can store 14 of the 550 Paks in a FAT 50 Ammo Can, that does not take up all that much space to store. That is 7,700 rounds per ammo can.

Down the Road, when the shelves are full again, buy an extra Brick now and again to store. When you have a FAT 50 filled, start on another one. This will help keep sales up, and over time you will have enough 22 ammo to not get excited the next time something happens to spike a buying frenzy.

The same thing with Primers. Figure out what Quantity you feel comfortable with as your Emergency Reserve, and always work above that number.

Bob

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ICORE MO2908

Funny you mention the 50 count boxes as I'm seeing that here too. Bulk 22lr is all but impossible to get these days. We are also seeing a lot of the Colibri ammo show up.

There are also a lot of people who really have no idea what is going on in regards to the limits retailers have placed on ammo sales. They think you can buy it by the case but the truth is a retailer may only receive a single case of 22lr if that much on delivery day.

As a further example of ammo limits I can buy two Winchester 222 count boxes of 22lr but only one box of 300 count ammo at Academy if they happened to get said examples in a delivery but recently its only 50 count boxes and all I can buy are 2 of them. Hard to horde 22lr 100 rounds at a time. I guess you could if you didn't shoot for a year or two.

To me it is all BS, the population wants more 22lr ammo but the companies wont make more??? Sounds like something is not adding up, I will tell you what will happen next, the adminstration will use the EPA to stop all lead importation and then we will see what the new 22 (all copper) ammo cost. I havent seen 22lr ammo on a walmart shelf in over a year, yes other ammo is coming in but I never see 22lr. It is just all BS, I may just have to sell off my 22lr due to no ammo avalible, I have a better chance getting 10mm than 22,

Again, where are you getting your facts that "the companies wont make more"? Per the original post, CCI is stating that they have increased production by 50%.

If you want to see ammo on the Walmart shelf, you need to get there on the day the shipment arrives, before 7 AM. I have recently purchased 2 bricks of CCI Blazer, and 3 boxes of Winchester 333 at my local Walmart. Yesterday, they received Remington Golden Bullets and are still showing stock available on the ammo apps. I think I might run over there and get a box or two...

A politician promised "a chicken in every pot!" about a hundred years ago. Now if one would just run on, "a brick of rimfires in every household!"

He'd get alot of votes!

GF

"He said they have no plans on further expansion plans." there is your fact fight there, they increased there production from back in 2012, If they are producing 50% more then there should of atleast be a little out there and that is only one company out of the how many that produce ammo? Also I refuse to get up and go to walmart before 7am to try to beat the jerks out there who buy it only to resale it for more, forget that BS that is part of the problem. This does not only affect us but it affects the childern who want to go out and shoot but cant because there is no ammo to get. The FACT is when you go to the store and the shelf for 22LR is bear! What more facts do you need?

I have two 22's. I've shot maybe 1000 rounds in the last 10 years.

I was purposely not shooting any so all of you guys would have more to shoot and the shortage would end sooner.

Look where it got me.

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That's just somebody talkin.

+ 1 Miiiiiiiillion likes!

Well here you go! Get your investment dollars together and start a manufacturing line. Since you've already assessed the long term investment versus demand versus cost, you should be rolling in the dough in no time and you'd have access to everything you need.

I look forward to your product! Will you guarantee the forum members 4 cent per round ammo? I've also read in one of these threads that it's the only morale thing to do!!!

even if the companies decided to really expand the loading equipment lead times are probably several years out for delivery

Until last summer I owned .22 RF bolt action and pump rifles and revolvers. I considered a weekend excursion where I used up 100 rounds to be extravagant. I shot slowly, reloaded slowly and an hour later a box was gone and I was ready for some clays.

Then I won a 10-22 with a 25 round magazine in a raffle. 10 Minutes shooting, 10 minutes loading and an hour later "where did the brick go?"

I suspect that if the Ruger, let alone an AR-type .22, had been in my battery in the past I would have burned up a lot more. Many of our new shooters have never known anything with a magazine capacity less than 25 rounds.

I've said before that I think a lot of the shortage is the result of manufacturers failing to account for the increased rate of fire at which their product is being consumed.

A 50% increase in production is a good start. If buying slows in the summer that would be an opportune time for the ammo companies to build up a backlog and start breaking ground for expansion.

America has rediscovered the rimfire and it is too fun to give up.

__________________
I need ammo, not a ride.

the explosion of high cap tactical 22's mimicing the centerfire guns are what is driving the increased 22 purchasing. those ar15, ak, hk, mp,etc 22's are one of the hottest selling items now. i don't see the end in sight of this 22 crisis. federal bulk packs are selling on gb for over $50 even in 20 brick quantities. i have some set aside but am shooting in sparingly until it is at least readily available, even if its $40/brick.

500 count CCI Blazer available at Cabela's right now for $27.99, less than $.06 per round. See the link in the official in stock ammo thread.

I am one of those who think we will start to see 22 ammo again at the stores as far as what people are actually shooting as opposed to buying. When I am at the range most of the people are shooting 9mm's, 40's and 45's and the amount of 22 ammo being shot does not seem to equal the amount being bought. Again that is just one shooting range and one place. I am one of the lucky "guilty" hoarders who bought a case of CCI SV right after the tragedy at Sandi hook and am glad that I did. I figure that I have a several years of ammo. I sometimes think that it might be worth while sending a letter to probate attorneys saying "I buy ammo" for when some poor widow is forced to deal with a garage full of 22 ammo.

I don't think the ammo manufactures are stupid and they think that it is not worth while to spend the money on more production equipment for the fear that sales will drop.

I wouldn't consider you a hoarder for 1 case. You might have acted on one of my notifications at SG during that time

We're running both Bullseye and .22 cal Pin shoots each week at the club. ~15-20 shooters for Bullseye, many shooting two relays, and 15-29 so far for pin-shooting, most shooting 2-3 sets, 6-tables per set.

I shoot both, and that comes to about 200-rounds of .22lr for me every week, assuming minimum-to-no practice in between. Given my preference, I'd be shooting-up about double that with practice.

Any way you look at it, that's a lot of .22lr for just two events every week at one club. We also run a Jr. Rifle program and other training classes that use up even more. Many of these are with NEW shooters, and we just had 50 new members join the club this month!

This is only one club with organized events, so how many others are seeing similar usage increases? And then you have all of the other new or returning shooters, either on their own or on the public and commercial ranges...

So it's certainly not just the hoarders buying up all the stock! I have to haunt my best local supplier on their usual shipment days to feed this habit. How many others have now been hooked by this particular addiction in the last year? There are a lot of new "ammo junkies" out there, and they're using, not hoarding.

Who Are You?



You may have heard on the news about a Southern California man who was put
under 72-hour psychiatric observation when it was found he owned 100 guns
and allegedly had 100,000 rounds of ammunition stored in his home. The house
also featured a secret escape tunnel.

By Southern California standards, someone owning 100,000 rounds is
considered "mentally unstable."

In Michigan, he'd be called "The last white guy still living in Detroit."

In Arizona, he'd be called "an avid gun collector."

In Arkansas, he'd be called "a novice gun collector."

In Utah, he'd be called "moderately well prepared," but they'd probably
reserve judgment until they made sure that he had a corresponding quantity
of stored food."

In Kansas, he'd be "A guy down the road you would want to have for a
friend."

In Montana, he'd be called "The neighborhood 'Go-To' guy."

In Alabama, he'd be called "a likely gubernatorial candidate."

In Georgia, he'd be called "an eligible bachelor."

In North Carolina, Virginia, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky and South
Carolina he would be called "a deer hunting buddy."

And in Texas he'd just be "Bubba, who's a little short on ammo."

How many 15-22s have been sold and are being used extensively??

At our LGS yesterday CCI MM going for $ 14.95 a box of 100, same in Midway was $ 7.19. The only difference: Midway didn't have any, my LGS does.

I and countless others still have to work for a living... please stop saying all we need to do to get .22LR is just be at a Walmart when they open, when the ammo arrives.

Second... "I try to shoot 25,000 .22s a year", once upon a time that quanity was a lifetime of shooting... divide that number by 365 days and it works out to 68 rds per day. A box of 50, shot every day, 7 days a week.

Multiply that by the number of people doing that amount (and more), and the number for yearly rate of consumption would be staggering.

People's appetite for .22 LR has become glutinous, down right insatiable, like a bunch of crack junkies. If we consumed food at the same rate, we'd all require gastric bypass surgery.

Exercise some self control, and maybe when the .22 LR inventories are given a chance to build up and sustain themselves, the panic about a shortages will subside and people will go back to the pre-panic buying habits that allowed ammo to be on the shelves and available whenever we want it.

Third... "Nothing is forever. At some point we'll see the pendulum swing the other way when people start shooting what they've squirreled away (and stop buying), and then watch sales crash."

Nope... not a chance, the die has been cast.

Because this has been going on for so long now the behavior has been adopted as a way of life. It's depression era mentality at work... you don't want to risk using what you have for fear of not being able to replace it, and if you do use some... getting down to having 10K - 15K on hand is now considered as "being short" ?

FUD... fear, uncertainty and doubt.

So we can continue to blame the manufactures, blame each other, blame the government, blame everyone else we can think of... justify price gouging as "free enterprise" at work, make hoarding sound noble ("I've got fill-in the-blank thousands of rounds stashed away, and I'm still buying... aren't I proud"), continue to rehash this **** in ever reoccurring threads, and watch this never ending losing game continue on... or get real and realize that it is going to take a consorted effort as a whole to get things back into balance.

Or... someone can start a rumor on all of the gun forums that xyz caliber is in short supply and people we flock to panic buying that and leave .22 LR alone... kind of like what's started to happen with 7.62x39 and the panic developing from the Russia vs USA sanctions. Bartender... a round of "tin foil hats" for everyone... my treat.

Rant off... stepping down from my soap box.

__________________
Conrad
SWCA #1830 SWHF #222

[QUOTE=Gunhacker;137800949

Second... "I try to shoot 25,000 .22s a year", once upon a time that quanity was a lifetime of shooting... divide that number by 365 days and it works out to 68 rds per day. A box of 50, shot every day, 7 days a week.
.[/QUOTE]

When I was younger I shot rifles and pistols and I shot more .22s because they were cheaper and I didn't have to reload. Then I got started shooting shotgun and for about 15 yrs. I shot over 30,000 shotgun shells a year. Now I am back shooting pistol and I only shoot about one box of center fire a week so that's the reason I need 25,000 .22s a year. It is just however someone wants to spend their money. Larry

The companies are not going to spend millions to increase production when they know at some point buyers will stop the hoarding and the market will crash--leaving the companies owning big time on a facility that's not making a return on investment.

I would agree with you except that the number of gun owners have increased dramatically at a time that manufacturing capacity was struggling to keep up before the Nov/DEC 2012 time frame. Those increased numbers plus the firearms most are using today (AR style 22's) have impacted the demand for 22lr to the point that without increased production the shortage will stay with us.

LadyT, where are you getting your numbers? I haven't found anything solid on number of "new" gun owners. Yes, sales were up, but some surveys point to more purchases by existing owners. And of all the guns sold, how many were .22lr? S&W pointed to a 30% increase in handgun sales. Ruger also had an increase in total sales of 28% in 4Q2013, but again, how many .22lr?

I think we all agree that there was an increase in guns sales between 2012 and now. But I am just not finding a solid breakout on the data past that. I find one webpage that says more new gun owners, but immediately find a second one that says more sales to existing owners...

I stopped at Cheaper than Dirt today and they had plenty of .22 bricks on the shelves. Can't imagine why at $99/brick.

First of all, I think that the majority of the new gun buyers, bought a box of ammo, went and shot it up, and put the new gun in the closet. So, they are probably not in the market.

Second, the ammo companies are under no obligation to produce something to make us happy as long as they can make more money making other calibers. The thing you can do to influence the manufacturers is buy their stock, and vote at their annual meetings. If you are a share holder, they are more likely to respond to your complaints.

Third, the foreign manufacturers that are most commonly seen are Fiocchi, (Italian, used to be cheaper than US stuff), and Aquilla, (Mexican, also cheaper, and hot stuff). You can't find them around either. The German and British stuff was always expensive. What we need is Chinese and Russian production.
The Chinese make a pretty good iphone, they probably could make good .22lr.
The Russian ammo is good as long as it's shot in Russian guns.

As mentioned above and before, manufacturers are unlikely to invest in more production because of potential market decrease. They are making record profits now.

It's just business.