You can "what if" forever, but the paranoiacs will do their best to keep ammo, components and guns in short supply for normal folks for a long time.

I don't feel sorry for them. The vast majority of them never supported the 2nd Amendment. Most are liberals who live in cities that are burning down. The only reason they bought guns was because they got spooked by the smell of their own city hall burning down.

Some were so stupid, here in California, they got upset when they had to wait to take home their new purchase. They actually believed the total media lie that people could just walk into a store with cash and walk out with a gun,

Interesting - what ammo do we import from Canada? The UK? or Israel? Or are those where companies like S&B, Prvi Partisan, Wolf, Tula, and Monarch ship from?

I cleaned out all the 22 ammo at my local Walmart this morning. I was going to buy one box of the CB's but the kid behind the counter asked if I wanted all that was left so I said "sure". The two boxes of WW were tucked behind some other stuff and we almost missed them.

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I believe you have just nailed it.

I am afraid that in the next few years we will see laws passed that will greatly reduce the availability of guns, ammo and reloading components. If not laws, lawsuits against the manufacturers are another means to accomplish objectives. I hope that I am wrong.

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Mighty 90's,Trying 4 a 100!

I never thought that I would be afraid of losing my guns, or my 2nd Amendment rights. Now, I'm very afraid; what else will we lose in the next 4 years? I always felt sorry for the countries where civilians couldn't own firearms or ammunition. Who will feel sorry for us? Whatever happened to "The land of the free, and the home of the brave"? :-(

I'll believe the end of the world when I see it. 44 was supposed to be the end, we survived that, surely we can survive this.

We will get through this. The ammo drought is more about COVID and the massive increase in gun purchases. I’ve been hearing politicians say things and not deliver for my whole life. It’s just to get elected. This will calm down at some point. I’m glad I got into reloading after Newtown but I do wish I had stocked up on more components. I’m good for at least a year at my reloading rate but that will be my new priority.

I’ll believe they will “Hell yes, I’m gonna take your AR-15” when they actually do it. I’m not holding my breath. Only good thing about the last 6 months is I have learned that if enough people take to the streets, the cops and the courts are powerless to do anything, and I will be among the “peaceful protesters” if that day ever comes. There are tens of millions of gun owners in this country. I’m not surrendering my property.

Until then, I’ll shoot more .22 ammo. Have probably 20,000 rounds of that.

Unless it has a bayonet attached, then it's a pike...

I've said this before, and I suppose I can repeat it here: If I play my cards right, I have a lifetime supply of ammo on me right now......Ben

If I play my cards wrong, I have a lifetime supply of ammo .

Absolutely The prices/supply will react to the consumer market pressure. Manufacturers don't set prices based on politics; that pressure comes from the buyers. Unfortunate that the, should I be nice and say the "overreactors", will drive the market supply and demand.

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John

I think that you are overly optimistic about gun owners' resolve. With "tens of millions of gun owners in this country" how many actually are united with a group to preserve freedoms? Yes, they'll buy ammo like TP, until there is a scarcity, but won't contribute a dime to join shoulder-to-shoulder with other gun owners. They will come up with all kinds of "reasons" not to join.

I disagree. Yeah, we’ve been somewhat silent until now, but we’ve never been faced with the “hell yes I’m gonna take your AR15”. And we’ve never seen Tens of thousands of people get a pass from burning and looting when there’s enough of them out there. The mood is different now. Nobody is taking my personal property. And I’m not alone, I’m sure. People can only be pushed so far.

Private sales, where they exist, likely gone.

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Sure you did

Yeah, there is a lot of acceptance and capitulation showing up here lately. Work-arounds abound. Kind of sad to read, but it may be the more practical course for now to take the stress off. My HBP has been through the roof all this week... not good. I don't need a brain aneurysm.

I, too, need to step back and be thankful for what I have. Other folks are in far worse shape than moi.

One thing I am not is overly-optimistic. We are in for a long haul here until anything returns to normal.

Ammunition and gun manufacturing companies are pretty likely to lose their legal protections from frivolous lawsuits. Their liability insurance rates will go through the roof. This will put several of them out of business.
Insurance companies will become more and more reluctant to write policies for anybody involved in manufacturing and selling any of the above for fear of being blackballed and harassed by the government.

3 to 5 years from now, today’s prices will seem like bargains.
Dark days dead ahead, folks.

Not just lately.

There are “gun owners” and true 2A advocates, never confuse the two.

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Sure you did

This ammo shortage is primarily due to global manufacturing and supply disruption from Covid, and we cannot expect it to normalize until Covid has been successfully subdued.
Once Vista completes onboarding it's new ownership of Remington ammo production, however, that should help the supply chain significantly.

“Historically, imported amounts of lower-priced ammunition have taken up the slack in unmet demand in the U.S. ammunition industry during cyclical periods of rising consumer demand,” said Rommel Dionisio, gun industry analyst for Aegis Capital. “However, potential shipment delays resulting from recent COVID-19 related shutdowns around the world may be delaying the delivery of such imported ammunition into the U.S. at the current time.”

The top U.S. ammo manufacturers are Vista Outdoor, which recently acquired Remington’s bullet business, and Olin Corp. OLN +2.9%, which owns the Winchester bullet brand. The top foreign suppliers of ammo to the U.S. are from Canada with 20.2% of market share, followed by Europe (particularly Germany and the United Kingdom) with 13.5%, and then Israel with 12.1%, according to Rogers.

The disruption is causing inventories to run dry in America. Retailers told this reporter that ammunition is selling out everywhere, especially for commonly used caliber like 9 mm and .38, prompting some shops to ration one box per purchase.

American consumers and retailers are learning that they can no longer rely on importers. So why don’t American ammo factories just ramp up production?

Dionisio said the large U.S. ammunition manufacturers, including Vista Outdoor, Olin and Remington, have been hesitant to expand production capacity during cyclical upturns in demand, for fear of being unable to use it when demand tapers off.

“It is not as simple as adding a few extra shifts of labor,” said Dionisio, who described expansion as “capital intensive, requiring significant outlays on machinery and facility expansion” with a lengthy buildup of 12 to 18 months.

Vista Outdoor, the top U.S. manufacturer of ammunition with 30% of market share, recently took a large stake in ammo production that could have significant implications on the industry going forward. Vista paid $81.4 million for Remington’s ammo brand after the venerable gun company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for the second time in two years.

“We are rapidly onboarding Remington Ammunition capacity, while also continuing operations at our existing domestic facilities, so that we can continue to support the strong consumer demand in the marketplace,” said Fred Ferguson, Vice President for Public Affairs for Vista Outdoor.

Dionisio described Vista’s decision to boost its ammo production capacity through the Remington acquisition as “certainly timely,” considering the nationwide bullet shortage.

You're right on all counts. The good times couldn't last forever. I guess i'll just sell everything now or put a curb alert in CL. Then I'll see if i can get a reservation at the nursing home.

Gee I hope the don't discontinue TV!

After the .22lr Famine a short time ago, and the disgusting Profiteering by Scalpers, I learned my Lesson well. Every month I ordered a few thousand bulk 22lr when Midway was selling it for 14.99/500 with free shipping over $49. I have enough to last my Lifetime, and my Son will take the rest. I also backed myself up with enough Powder,Primers,and Bullets for the Heavier Caliber Cartridges. I anticipated this before Covid, and the new Anti Gun Administration were a Reality

I do not think it is prudent in these times to mention in electronic communications having large quantities of anything gun-related on hand. There are several alphabet agencies that would find such statements to be of interest to them for future use.

Something we all need to start keeping in mind.

What about Executive Orders?
And, if they bypass the legislative process and do it thru the courts, none of the other stuff matters.

Our kids have been indoctrinated opposite viewpoints in school while too many ( not me) parents were obsessed with sports and whatever the Kardashians are up to at any given time.
How many of you out there have ever actually checked out the curriculum at your kid’s school?

The United States isn't the only country that produces ammunition and primers. I have given it some serious thought to become a licensed importer, travel to other countries, and buy what we need. A foreign country's prices and production should not be affected by a US election and politics. Or am I wrong?

You didn’t read any of the previous posts before hitting “submit,” right?

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Wisdom comes thru fear . . .

Get what you can now! I don't like the smell of the future for us shooters.

I think you guys are funny...

Take a deep breath already.

Not to worry your bolt action rifle and double barrel shotgun are safe and that's all you need!

No kidding, Im paranoid now about saying anything gun related Ive got a cross bow that's it.

But you didn't get the memo... All TVs in nursing homes are to be replaced with checker boards!

Availability is the issue.

I don't see prices coming down anytime soon. Not in 2021.

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Smith, and Wesson, and Me.

Bolt actions and shotguns are safe? I'm not sure about were you guys live but around me hunting ammo of all varieties and buck and slugs dried up months ago. I'm not talking about 223, I'm talking about 30-06, 270, 243 ect. The local Bass Pro ammo aisle has other items in it now because there's nothing available.

shot USPSA Saturday and 40% less participants than normal already. Beautiful day, not cold, no holiday weekend, must be ammo/primers...

Sometimes, the panic begets the shortage. Other times, the shortage begets the panic. Sometimes it's even both at the same time....I think that's where we are.

Due to political and social issues a panic buying spree formed at precisely the time the virus caused supply chain shortages. It's not just ammo, there's all kinds of supply chain disruptions (combined with increased) demand out there if you look for them.

RV's are in short supply and prices on used ones are way up. Dealer lots are empty or they aren't dealing. Try buying an outdoor patio heater.

First the supply chain has to get repaired then we have to work through the demand. This is going to take a while. Predictions are tough but I figure maybe in a year things might get back to normalish. Could easily take two. All of this assumes the status quo is maintained as far as regulations go.

When you next get the opportunity lay in supplies. It seems the rolling shortages are the new normal. Even if you don't reload you can trade primers for ammo and 10,000 primers takes up a lot less room than 10,000 rounds of ammo.

The only Bright Side to this situation, Waiting time for a Point at my Local Range has decreased Probably because of the lack of Available Ammo

As a new reloader, the only commodity I have difficulty finding is primers. I have everything else.

After the coup de grace in Jan I expect that 1k of 9mm I bought last February will be my last bulk purchase.

Next year it’ll be a struggle to afford a box of 50 IMHO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

With the vaccine imminent the pipeline and production should widen.

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Sure you did

A vaccine will certainly help. But I have read that ammo manufacturers feel they got burned after they spent a lot of money buying expensive equipment to increase their capacity only to have the market and prices collapse in 2016. They do not intend to make the same mistake this time. I have no doubt they will be running their existing lines 24/7 after the vaccine if they are not doing so already. But given the pent up demand it is going to take a while for supply to catch up with demand.

This past Saturday I was out browsing at a local pawn shop, hoping to find a spyderco knife for $3, like another forum member last week. While I didn't see any such deals on folding pocket knives I DID score a set of katana's for $40, which made me very happy.

As I was leaving the shop I noticed that they also sold firearms, and had a surprising supply of ammo....mostly 9mm. TulAmmo, Blazer Brass, Sellier & Bellot, and the box of Federal pictured below!!!

Glad I'm not in need of ammo right now.

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Stay protected my friends.

It's quite the interesting situation.

Like most of us, I'd like to go shooting, but until we get a better handle on what's going to happen, I'm reluctant to dip into my current stash. I'm also reluctant to pay current market prices on common ammo, that may well plummet in a year. So I'm sitting on my 9mm pile.

The one thing I've done recently, is explore the more obscure calibers. I'm not GUN shopping, I'm BARREL shopping, with the idea being this-
if I can convert a gun I already own into a caliber very few people are seeking, then I have opened an avenue to add MORE ammo to the mix, and increase (not shrink) my stash.

2 such pistols have been re-purposed by me now. Until this started both were chambered (solely) in 9x19 Parabellum, enjoyed, and waited their turn in the rotation going to the range, depending on my mood that day.

First one was a Chinese Norinco Tokarev; I added the 7.62 Tok barrel for under $60, and picked up some surplus ammo. The results pleased me so much I looked further, leading to my next move-
Second one is a Star Model B Super. Like the above-mentioned Tok, I had been shooting that in 9 Luger. I added a 9 Largo barrel and some Largo ammo, and it also seems to be a fine conversion.

7.62 Tokarev and 9 Largo are generally more expensive than 9x19 Parabellum, but NOT right now. There ARE surplus supplies around if you can find them, which are significantly lower, and mostly require you to clean the gun with an eye towards preventing corrosive salt issues. Ballistol moose milk seems to be an easy method, and if you use Ballistol anyway, that means minimal cost difference. And a side benefit is that you will tend to clean the gun far more thoroughly than if you were shooting "clean" ammo, so you get a better look at your gun.
New stuff is also available, and although the cost is higher, you also don't run the risk of corrosion nearly as much.

It's a bit tougher to find 9mm Largo or 7.62 Tok (or 7.63 Mauser), but you're also not racing against a million new gun owners to buy some. So if/when you do find some, you have a bigger window to decide if it's worth it, or not. If you find 9mm Parabellum, you need to be ready to buy now, or it's gone.

*Added for clarification: even new manufactured ammo in these calibers, if you can locate them, are lower, or at worst equal to, the current price of new manufactured Parabellum. I did a search on one of the ammo engines, best deal I can find for 9x19 brass-cased fmj right now is 70 cents a rd. I can get new Largo for 60 cents, and new 7.63 Mauser for 70.
Surplus is currently going around 35-45 cents a rd

If diminished Covid fears encourage more ammo production and distribution, then that'll certainly help. But there's another factor, which we're not allowed to discuss here. I believe that this demand factor outweighs the supply factor caused by Covid. It would probably be prudent to buy whatever ammo is reasonably priced while you can. Don't pay $120 for one little box of 9mm, but even if you think you don't need more .22LR, and it's not wacky-priced, I'd suggest buying a box or two anyway.

I plan to buy more ammo now. Right now I am concerned that a ridiculous tax will be applied to ammo.

If this ever lifts, anybody who does NOT learn how to reload is a fool. If anything, loaded ammo is gonna be gone after first. A very small percentage of shooters reload. One pound of powder can load like 1300 9MM rounds. 1800 .38 Special. The space needed to store the components is far less than the space needed to store loaded ammo. I have 4000 9MM bullets waiting to be loaded, and 5000 pistol primers, at least. Have thousands of rounds already loaded. It costs me $13 to load 100 9MM rounds. I’ve been saving brass for years. It’s just laying on the ground. When this is over, stockpiling components is gonna be my thing. That and .22 ammo. Only have 15,000 rounds of that.

I learned after Newtown. Never again. I should have been stockpiling more components though. I won’t make that mistake again.

On top of the Panic Tax.

Or lead bullets get banned.

I reloaded for many years, quit about 10 years ago and have zero regrets. I have been hanging on to the equipment and remaining components "just in case" but if 2020 has not made me reconsider I hate to think what would. Buying ammo in bulk works just as well as buying reloading components in bulk.

Absolutely not true. If space is an issue you can take factory ammo out of its boxes and store 2200 rounds in a single 50 cal ammo can. The brass and bullets alone would fill the same can. Then there's the primers which should be stored in the factory boxes for safety reasons, cans of powder, brass tumblers, the press itself and all the small items that go along with reloading. I freed up a lot of space when I quit reloading.

I agree that anyone that doesn't stock up when ammo and reloading components become available will have only themselves to blame if they run low during the next shortage. But reloading is not the answer for everyone. I used to enjoy it but it gradually became just another tedious chore. It's cheaper but not everyone finds it worth the time or enjoys it.

Neither of us is a fool, we just have different priorities.

We’re gonna have to disagree. I have 5000 primers, easily 7000 bullets, and 15 1 pound jugs of powder in a cabinet under my work bench that I load on. Primed brass on other side of work bench. All tucked in a corner in my garage. 1000 primer bricks take up almost no space. Storing brass takes up some room but a shelf on the other side of the garage takes care of that.

And even in the best of times, I can reload 9MM for 60% less than the WWB that USED to be available at Walmart. .38, .357, and .45 are even more cost effective. It wouldn’t take much room to store components for 100,000 completed rounds. Try storing 2,000 boxes of ammo. And the other thing you forget is I don’t have to store the completed rounds that take up more space than the components do, so I reload as I need to. I don’t need to store 10,000 rounds.

I’ve only been loading since 2013 so maybe I’ll change my mind, but reloading has freed me from this ammo shortage. Yeah, I could have stored 5000 loaded rounds, but not only it have cost more than what it did to reload them, they’d be taking up more space. A friend of mine literally loads as he goes. I doubt he has 250 loaded rounds in his house. He feels the need, he makes them and shoots them.

Stock markets have "circuit breakers" in place to suspend trading when prices or volume exceed predetermined levels. The monstrous financial market is not exactly comparable to the relatively small arms and ammunition market, but everyone would be well served if there were some dampers in place to soften the wild run ups in prices and bare shelves. Brick and mortar retailers make some effort by limiting purchase sizes, but they don't seem to have helped much. The online broker services might think about creative ideas to soften the panic. I know they serve a vital link in the commerce chain, especially for used items, but increasingly they are conduits for re-sellers of new guns and ammunition bought on speculation, and amplify the problem. Perhaps some mandatory disclosure rules on how long a seller has owned the commodity, reason for selling, etc., to separate legitimate private sellers from profiteer distributors. I know it smacks of big government overreach, but this is getting old and nobody is doing anything to help. Just musing.