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Old 11-04-2020, 06:18 PM
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I was looking around on SGAMMO last night and almost fainted!
Now that people can't afford to buy ammo at the current prices, what does the ammo industry, and prices, look like from this day forward?
Will those panic buyers start unloading all of the ammo they bought? If so, do you think it might drive ammo prices down?
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Old 11-04-2020, 06:33 PM
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I suspect that the panic buying will ramp up for the next few months so prices won’t abate for a while and may continue to rise.
Folks will continue panic buying.

Certainly some folks who have been squirreling ammo away will sell a bit. But others will want to ride the price as it goes up, hoping to maximize return. Others will hang on to their stash for personal use.

I don’t expect a flood of ammo to depress prices: I don’t think there will be a flood of ammo.

Last edited by Rpg; 11-04-2020 at 06:35 PM.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:36 PM
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I'm at a lucky junction; bullet caster, reloader, and have a superb supply of powder and primers. My supply is so good that at 72, I'm set for life and plan on there being a very small estate sale.

If you don't learn from history, the ride never changes.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:45 PM
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Ammunition may never, ever be coming back. The death days of the west everyone talked about may have already started last year. The good days are gone, and the worst is yet ahead. This is the means of arms control the new wave is bringing; keep your gun, but no more ammunition.

Between real shortages, "shortages", taxes on ammunition, environmental restrictions, the ease which the system can threaten the handful of owners of corporations. The shooting sports are already probably dead, and we're just realizing it.

Last edited by ditrina; 11-04-2020 at 07:58 PM.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:48 PM
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From what I hear, between panic buying PLUS huge government purchases it might be awhile before ammunition is plentiful again.
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Old 11-04-2020, 08:03 PM
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All I can say for sure, is I have about as many guns as I'll ever want - way more than I could ever need - plus around 10k rounds of factory center fire ammo and another 50k worth of reloading components.

So the left can kiss my backside. Unless and until they are ready to start forceful confiscation, there ain't SQUAT that they can do to affect my supply.
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Old 11-04-2020, 08:39 PM
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There might be a few people that bought when prices were low and plan to sell now, wait and replace what they sold when prices go back down. But not many. And even fewer people desperate enough to buy a large quantity at today's prices would be willing to sell.

Supply will eventually catch up with demand and prices will fall. But it is going to take a while.
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Old 11-04-2020, 08:50 PM
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I'm going to start slowly selling off my accumulation of ammo. I'm not interested in selling illegal goods and that is where I think ammo is going, at least in the volume I accumulated over the years. Anything more than you can carry may be used against you anyway.
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Old 11-04-2020, 09:31 PM
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I did take the opportunity to unload a few thousand various steel case Russian junk I picked up at an estate auction last year that was mixed in with good stuff I wanted.
I sold it for about $0.30 a round. More than double what I had in it, and way under going price. Both parties were very happy.
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Old 11-04-2020, 10:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Rpg View Post
I suspect that the panic buying will ramp up for the next few months so prices won’t abate for a while and may continue to rise.
Folks will continue panic buying.

Certainly some folks who have been squirreling ammo away will sell a bit. But others will want to ride the price as it goes up, hoping to maximize return. Others will hang on to their stash for personal use.

I don’t expect a flood of ammo to depress prices: I don’t think there will be a flood of ammo.
Of the same mind here. The only thing that will drive prices down is more availability. I think that folks who have bought recently will hang onto what they have, against an uncertain future. Especially if the election turns out the way it’s looking. Guess we’ll see.
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Old 11-04-2020, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by cgt4570 View Post
I did take the opportunity to unload a few thousand various steel case Russian junk........ More than double what I had in it, and way under going price. Both parties were very happy.
I was (again) offered $600 for a 1K case of Rem brass case 9mm last evening that I bought this year for $169. It was tempting. Joe
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Old 11-04-2020, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by BC38 View Post
All I can say for sure, is I have about as many guns as I'll ever want - way more than I could ever need - plus around 10k rounds of factory center fire ammo and another 50k worth of reloading components.

So the left can kiss my backside. Unless and until they are ready to start forceful confiscation, there ain't SQUAT that they can do to affect my supply.
Never underestimate the lengths to which some folks will go. A few possibilities come to mind:

1. Licensing of reloaders as ammunition manufacturers.
2. Taxes on every round produced, perhaps more taxes on every component.
3. Changes in state and local codes restricting the quantities of ammunition, primers, powders, etc, may lawfully be kept in a residential dwelling or building (saw this in the Denver metro area a couple of years ago, 1000 rounds max per building, and that included a building with dozens of apartments all subject to the aggregate limit for the building).
4. State insurance commissions (appointed officials) changing requirements for insurance policies sold within the state to specifically limit or prohibit any insurance coverage for damages or injuries resulting from ammunition storage, components, reloading, etc.
5. Prohibitions on possession or use of lead bullets or shot.
6. Changes in laws dealing with child endangerment to prohibit possession of ammunition, components, or reloading equipment/supplies in any household with children present (or perhaps within 1000 feet of any child's residence, or any school, or any day care facility, etc).
7. Changes in business or zoning laws to prohibit sale or delivery of reloading components, supplies, or equipment (or just onerous and expensive licensing and compliance requirements).

Then there is still the United Nations Treaty on Small Arms floating around, which the US might conceivably ratify at some future time. That treaty contains strict licensing provisions and other restrictions for anyone who manufactures or reloads ammunition (not to mention firearms of any type in private hands), which might be found palatable by those who wish to limit your supply or access.

It can be amusing when a news source reports a story of someone found in possession of "an arsenal" or "thousands of rounds of ammunition". Probably not so amusing when the photos or videos show your house. You and I might think a few thousand rounds is just a reasonable supply for our range trips or recreational shooting, but that is probably not how we will be portrayed to the general public. We might expect to get a call from State Farm telling us our homeowners policy has been cancelled shortly after those reports are published.

As I recall, the Second Amendment uses the word "arms" with absolutely no mention of ammunition or the means for producing ammunition. I don't want to be the test case in court!

No, I will never underestimate the opposition.
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Old 11-05-2020, 12:06 AM
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I was (again) offered $600 for a 1K case of Rem brass case 9mm last evening that I bought this year for $169. It was tempting. Joe
I wish that I had found 9mm for $169 a K. The ammo fairy was watching out for you. Good for you.
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Old 11-05-2020, 12:16 AM
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We go through these cycles with regularity. Sunspots are an 11 years cycle, ammo is a 4 year cycle.

If you weren't stocking up last year, you haven't been paying attention. I predict that my next major ammo purchases will be in 2023.
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Old 11-05-2020, 12:17 AM
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be prepared to donate to the NRA - we are gonna need em.
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Old 11-05-2020, 08:04 AM
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Never underestimate the lengths to which some folks will go. A few possibilities come to mind:
I worry about lead getting banned more than the other risks you mentioned. There are legitimate reasons lead pipes, leaded gasoline and lead shot for duck hunting are things of the past.

The gun club I shoot at was worried all the bullets in the dirt backstops at the handgun ranges might cause a ricochet. They found a company that digs up the backstops, separates the lead and then restores the range. They got 100,000 pounds from just the pistol ranges, enough for them to make a nice profit. The club got restored ranges for free and a check for their share of the lead sales. Almost all lead exposure from shooting comes from breathing in lead from primers or cast bullets smoke, particularly in poorly ventilated indoor ranges, not lead in dirt banks. But I could see someone wondering why they have to use steel shot for duck hunting when our club has 50 tons of lead sitting in backstops.

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It can be amusing when a news source reports a story of someone found in possession of "an arsenal" or "thousands of rounds of ammunition".
I have seen newspapers describe a 10/22 and bulk pack of 22 LR as a "semi-automatic rifle and hundreds of rounds of ammunition".

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Old 11-05-2020, 08:39 AM
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Expect the next 4yrs to be rocky. As for me I'm keeping my ear to the ground to find cheapish lead from mom and pop auto repair shops near me.

It's funny how I can shoot 22lr cheaper than using 1 primer.
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Old 11-05-2020, 08:47 AM
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Unless someone builds a new ammo factory or three, demand is likely to outstrip supply for the next four years at least. If you don't have reloading components now, you ain't gettin' any.
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Old 11-05-2020, 09:02 AM
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There are European primers and powder on board freighters headed for southern ports in NC and GA as this is typed. I "work" for a range operator that is awaiting his 1 MM primer shipment. His powder order arrived a month ago.

The horizon is blurry, not dark and threatening.
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Old 11-05-2020, 09:18 AM
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I believe what LoboGunLeather stated to be very possible. IIRC, they tried to pass legislation to track canisters of powder sold to reloaders in the 1980s.
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Old 11-05-2020, 09:40 AM
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Dave Lively: what is the contact information for the company that removed the lead from the backstop?
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Old 11-05-2020, 10:06 AM
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They have learned ... you don't need gun control if you have ammo control . A gun without ammo is a club at best .
Read post # 12 ...carefully ... He ain't just Whistling Dixie .
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Old 11-05-2020, 11:29 AM
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I wish that I had found 9mm for $169 a K. The ammo fairy was watching out for you. Good for you.
Target Sports had brass case 9mm from many manufacturers for $169 case for a couple years. Naturally I went my usual “ cautious lightweight” and only got 3K. Back in 2004 I was single and the Orlando Bass Pro had WWB 9mm for $ 3.88/ box. I put 13,500 rds in my pickup because that’s all they had. Joe
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Old 11-05-2020, 11:39 AM
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With anti-gunners monopolizing the government and a wave of new gun owners, I'd say that the shortage of ammo and reloading components will last for many more years.
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Old 11-05-2020, 12:35 PM
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Things will calm a bit once folks realize the world isn’t ending. It may take a while and we’ll never see all return to pre-pandemic pricing but it’ll come back.
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Old 11-05-2020, 12:55 PM
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Dave Lively: what is the contact information for the company that removed the lead from the backstop?
I do not have their contact information but the name of the company is Recoil, LLC, and they are located in Orlando, FL. I read about the lead removal in the club newsletter but was not involved directly.

Their rate schedule was they get to keep all of the first 40,000 pounds of lead and half of everything over that. Not sure if they have a minimum.

The ranges they worked on are in great shape.
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Old 11-05-2020, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by LoboGunLeather View Post
Never underestimate the lengths to which some folks will go. A few possibilities come to mind:

1. Licensing of reloaders as ammunition manufacturers.
...
I suppose reloads will be renamed "ghost ammunition".
Whatever happens to the executive branch, the legislative branches projected makeup won't have the numbers to expand the authority of federal agencies to regulate firearms and ammo.
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Old 11-05-2020, 04:39 PM
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I have no idea where ammo prices will go in the future. A person would have to know what capacity the manufacturers have and how they address the present shortage. I doubt they will do much of anything different as they sell all they make and know that there will always be peaks and valleys in sales. Trying to guess where those might be isn't a good business decision. I didn't see any rush to meet the demand in the last ammo/component shortage. That one took several years to work itself out.

In time the supply will return but I wouldn't want to say what year that might be.
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Old 11-05-2020, 05:25 PM
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I suppose reloads will be renamed "ghost ammunition".
.
Let’s not be putting ideas in their heads 😬😬
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Old 11-05-2020, 05:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoboGunLeather View Post
Never underestimate the lengths to which some folks will go. A few possibilities come to mind:

1. Licensing of reloaders as ammunition manufacturers.
2. Taxes on every round produced, perhaps more taxes on every component.
3. Changes in state and local codes restricting the quantities of ammunition, primers, powders, etc, may lawfully be kept in a residential dwelling or building (saw this in the Denver metro area a couple of years ago, 1000 rounds max per building, and that included a building with dozens of apartments all subject to the aggregate limit for the building).
4. State insurance commissions (appointed officials) changing requirements for insurance policies sold within the state to specifically limit or prohibit any insurance coverage for damages or injuries resulting from ammunition storage, components, reloading, etc.
5. Prohibitions on possession or use of lead bullets or shot.
6. Changes in laws dealing with child endangerment to prohibit possession of ammunition, components, or reloading equipment/supplies in any household with children present (or perhaps within 1000 feet of any child's residence, or any school, or any day care facility, etc).
7. Changes in business or zoning laws to prohibit sale or delivery of reloading components, supplies, or equipment (or just onerous and expensive licensing and compliance requirements).

Then there is still the United Nations Treaty on Small Arms floating around, which the US might conceivably ratify at some future time. That treaty contains strict licensing provisions and other restrictions for anyone who manufactures or reloads ammunition (not to mention firearms of any type in private hands), which might be found palatable by those who wish to limit your supply or access.

It can be amusing when a news source reports a story of someone found in possession of "an arsenal" or "thousands of rounds of ammunition". Probably not so amusing when the photos or videos show your house. You and I might think a few thousand rounds is just a reasonable supply for our range trips or recreational shooting, but that is probably not how we will be portrayed to the general public. We might expect to get a call from State Farm telling us our homeowners policy has been cancelled shortly after those reports are published.

As I recall, the Second Amendment uses the word "arms" with absolutely no mention of ammunition or the means for producing ammunition. I don't want to be the test case in court!

No, I will never underestimate the opposition.
What you just described is exactly how they will do it.

“ It’s for the children, you see “.
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Old 11-05-2020, 05:53 PM
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The non-shotgun shooting sports will dry up pretty quickly.
Ammunition is now too precious of a commodity to waste “ playing games “ with.

Last edited by smoothshooter; 11-05-2020 at 06:01 PM.
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Old 11-05-2020, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by smoothshooter View Post
The non-shotgun shooting sports will dry up pretty quickly.
Ammunition is now too precious of a commodity to waste “ playing games “ with.
Pro shooters will still get their ammo directly from the manufacturer, but I agree, we regular people will just stop shooting as much as we did.

Handgun ammo is very hard to come by. Whenever I see it for sale it's already gone by the time I put it in the cart and get to the payment page. It's that crazy. Dealers must be stalking the distributors websites and buy on sight.

That's what I'll do now... buying just one or two boxes instead of filling up the cart to save a bit on shipping.
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Old 11-05-2020, 06:31 PM
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You may have noticed that there is a pandemic going on. Factory workers-closed off from open air, crowded together-are a prime target. Nothing is going back to normal until we have a unified comprehensive plan in place, directed by scientists and doctors. Other nations have beat the disease back to controllable levels by using science and good management--masks, social distancing, small crowd management. We are number one in the world with death rates and infection rates. Not the good number one, the other one.
As much as I like punching holes in targets and eating game, until the epidemic is controlled, my money goes to good masks
Under current management, the death rate is going up again and ICUs are getting over crowded again.

Last edited by dougb1946; 11-05-2020 at 06:33 PM.
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Old 11-05-2020, 06:55 PM
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"...How Will Ammo And Prices Now Be Effected..."
THAT would be "AFFECTED", and since there is such an inference on everyone's college or no-college... thing this week, maybe you could correct this and save face...?
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Old 11-05-2020, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by smoothshooter View Post
The non-shotgun shooting sports will dry up pretty quickly.
Ammunition is now too precious of a commodity to waste “ playing games “ with.
I haven't seen much evidence of that. Attendance at matches is down but mostly due to COVID restrictions. The guys that shoot matches usually seem to have a pretty good stockpile and many of them are still shooting.

The prices we are seeing now are panic prices. This is not the new normal. Every time there is a shortage I read posts about how prices will never come down but they always have. It might take a year but this too shall pass.
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Old 11-06-2020, 02:23 AM
mscampbell2734 mscampbell2734 is offline
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Originally Posted by dougb1946 View Post
You may have noticed that there is a pandemic going on. Factory workers-closed off from open air, crowded together-are a prime target. Nothing is going back to normal until we have a unified comprehensive plan in place, directed by scientists and doctors. Other nations have beat the disease back to controllable levels by using science and good management--masks, social distancing, small crowd management. We are number one in the world with death rates and infection rates. Not the good number one, the other one.
As much as I like punching holes in targets and eating game, until the epidemic is controlled, my money goes to good masks
Under current management, the death rate is going up again and ICUs are getting over crowded again.
Don't even go there. The Euros are shutting down their economy for the THIRD time and still have not gotten control of the virus.

Australia shut down for what 110 days? People could only leave their houses for 1 hour per day. How the hell do you work/pay the bills? Oh that's right the gov't gave everyone a stipend. One step closer to socialism.
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Old 11-06-2020, 07:09 AM
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Originally Posted by smoothshooter View Post
The non-shotgun shooting sports will dry up pretty quickly.
Ammunition is now too precious of a commodity to waste “ playing games “ with.
Utter nonsense.
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Old 11-06-2020, 08:23 AM
Muss Muggins Muss Muggins is online now
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When I was working for the Yankee Gov't, we once got a two hour inservice with PowerPoint, a notetaking guide, and a quick reference sheet on the difference between "affect" and "effect." I began using "impact" instead. As for ammo, the original topic of the post, it's gonna be the .22 LR shortage all over again for a while, like it has been for the last six months, with less availability in the near future. I believe it will loosen up by summer of 2021 . . .

Quote:
Originally Posted by HorizontalMike View Post
"...How Will Ammo And Prices Now Be Effected..."
THAT would be "AFFECTED", and since there is such an inference on everyone's college or no-college... thing this week, maybe you could correct this and save face...?
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Last edited by Muss Muggins; 11-06-2020 at 08:26 AM.
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Old 11-06-2020, 09:39 AM
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LoboGunLeather

IS RIGHT ON THE MONEY.

IT WILL BE A NEW REVENUE STREAM FOR THE GOVERNMENT. THERE IS ALREADY A AMMUNITION TAX IN COOK COUNTY (CHICAGO) IL. 1 PENNY PER ROUND OF RIMFIRE, A NICKEL PER ROUND ON CENTERFIRE. RAISED IN THE NAME OF PAYING FOR THE SHOOTING VICTIMS MEDICAL EXPENSES.

IN GERMANY YOU MUST HAVE A RELOADING LICENSE AND ARE LIMITED TO 1 POUND OF POWDER AND 1K PRIMERS PER YEAR. THAT INFO CAME FROM A FRIEND OF MINE ON THE GERMAN NATIONAL POLICE TEAM.

BE AWARE, BE VERY AWARE
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Old 11-06-2020, 10:32 AM
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Seeing as Germany doesn’t use avoirdupois measures, I doubt your friend is limited to a pound of powder.

Belgium, for instance, limits reloaders to 2 kilos of bulk powder purchases at a time. That’s 4.4lb.
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Old 11-06-2020, 11:07 PM
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I don't quite understand why everyone is blaming the lack of ammo availability on the political climate. Did everyone forget the pandemic. A lot of the manufacturers had to shut down due to the pandemic. Ammo was considered an essential service. Most are back to work at least with skeleton crews and ammo and components will become more readily available. Just because Midway is out of Speer bullets doesn't mean you can't get them directly from Speer. It means midway has not ordered any for a while because they are working short handed too. Even SGA when they have some says it takes days to get stuff out now where it used to go out the same day. No need to be a doomsayer. It's the Pandemic not the politics.
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Old 11-07-2020, 12:09 AM
docjonson docjonson is offline
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Default Ammunition tax in Chicago

Quote:
Originally Posted by PPCSHOOTER View Post
LoboGunLeather

IS RIGHT ON THE MONEY.

IT WILL BE A NEW REVENUE STREAM FOR THE GOVERNMENT. THERE IS ALREADY A AMMUNITION TAX IN COOK COUNTY (CHICAGO) IL. 1 PENNY PER ROUND OF RIMFIRE, A NICKEL PER ROUND ON CENTERFIRE. RAISED IN THE NAME OF PAYING FOR THE SHOOTING VICTIMS MEDICAL EXPENSES.

IN GERMANY YOU MUST HAVE A RELOADING LICENSE AND ARE LIMITED TO 1 POUND OF POWDER AND 1K PRIMERS PER YEAR. THAT INFO CAME FROM A FRIEND OF MINE ON THE GERMAN NATIONAL POLICE TEAM.

BE AWARE, BE VERY AWARE
I think the tax on ammo in Chicago is more like an "amusement tax" since it is apparently a " sport" to shoot guns in Chicago.

Last edited by docjonson; 11-07-2020 at 12:13 AM.
  #43  
Old 11-07-2020, 12:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PPCSHOOTER View Post
LoboGunLeather

IS RIGHT ON THE MONEY.

IT WILL BE A NEW REVENUE STREAM FOR THE GOVERNMENT. THERE IS ALREADY A AMMUNITION TAX IN COOK COUNTY (CHICAGO) IL. 1 PENNY PER ROUND OF RIMFIRE, A NICKEL PER ROUND ON CENTERFIRE. RAISED IN THE NAME OF PAYING FOR THE SHOOTING VICTIMS MEDICAL EXPENSES.
The leftys implemented the same thing in King County WA (where Seattle is located) a few years ago. The first year it existed the new tax actually generated less revenue than the regular old sales tax on ammo the previous year.

How's that? Simple: Everybody started going OUTSIDE King County to buy ammo! IIRC that one got repealed toot sweet!
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Last edited by BC38; 11-07-2020 at 12:37 AM.
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Old 11-07-2020, 08:39 AM
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One thing we can't ignore are the millions of more gun owners this year. Now, most aren't going to become regular shooters, but some will.

And living in Seattle, I witnessed the gun stores move outside city limits. It was Seattle, not King County. But that might have been the goal in the first place.
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Old 11-07-2020, 09:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muss Muggins View Post
When I was working for the Yankee Gov't, we once got a two hour inservice with PowerPoint, a notetaking guide, and a quick reference sheet on the difference between "affect" and "effect." I began using "impact" instead.
Funny, isn't it? In my many years of writing legal, technical and financial reports, I was absolutely forbidden to use the word "impact" unless it was in regard to the action of one object coming forcibly into contact with another.

Different strokes for different folks.
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Old 11-07-2020, 09:22 AM
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I lived in Missouri for three years, so I’d like someone to “show me” evidence that ammo manufacturers slowed down or stopped because of Covid. It’s a theory, but what’s the evidence supporting it?
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Old 11-07-2020, 12:49 PM
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I'm good regardless of how things play out . Do I need anything I don't have ? Not really , I would like to have 500 new Winchester 25-20 cases and a couple more powders that are not currently available but I will get them eventually . This is just the same old waiting game as every one before , nothing new or different . Be prepared and you don't have to worry when it gets like this again , and it will .
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Old 11-07-2020, 01:10 PM
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Forbes explains the issue fairly well . . .

Gun Stores Are Selling Out Of Bullets As Covid-19 Disrupts Ammo Imports

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I lived in Missouri for three years, so I’d like someone to “show me” evidence that ammo manufacturers slowed down or stopped because of Covid. It’s a theory, but what’s the evidence supporting it?
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Old 11-07-2020, 03:13 PM
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Today at a NE Ohio gun show .357 1– 1.25 a round 9mm was averaging 30.00/50
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Old 11-07-2020, 03:29 PM
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I'm truly sorry for those new to gun ownership, that they "got in" during this drought. Nature of the beast, I guess. I probably have enough ammo and components to make more to last out my days. Have thought about liquidating some of the surplus (components, mostly) but I couldn't replace it for what I could sell it for. Would rather do some trading at the local level. For instance I have ~15k of large pistol magnum primers, bought several years ago... and I don't use magnum caps for any of my loads. Maybe I could post a "for trade" ad at my local range.

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