Sorry for not commenting myself, I wanted the message from Federals CEO to speak for itself. Just wish he hadn't whined at the beginning, particularly given the winfall of profit his company is expected to reap as a result of this unprecedented demand.

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Who watches the watchers?

Hornady has also posted (coordinated posts?) on the same issue:

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Who watches the watchers?

I like the simple math explanation of the demand problem.
Over the last 9 months:
7 million NEW gun owners x 100 rounds (2 boxes) each = 7 HUNDRED MILLION rounds of ammo sales in 9 months. And that is assuming that on average they only bought two boxes each, which seems like a pretty conservative estimate.

What he didn't point out is that just to satisfy that demand would require making an average of almost 2.6 million rounds of ammo per day 7 days a week over the last 9 months (270 days).

And that's just to supply the people who have become NEW gun owners this year - it doesn't include supplying ammo to the other 100 million people in the US that already owned guns before this year. It certainly doesn't account for any of the panic buying that has been going on.

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Send lawyers, guns & money...

Yes, that all makes sense. I think the video would have been FAR more effective if he hadn't started off complaining. Let's be clear, they are making more money then ever before during this high demand period. Please don't complain to me when YOUR business is going extremely well and mine is suffering from constant government intrusion and my income is down as a result.

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Who watches the watchers?

I agree that he did sound a little whiny - especially at first. A more upbeat tone would have been better public relations IMO.

I've no doubt they're making and shipping ammo as quickly as they can. Without doing so they would soon go bankrupt. A market economy is a beautiful thing, but sometimes things get out of balance for a bit. They'll come back around, though eventually.

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Or something like that . . .

I disagree with PPS1980 that Federal and all the rest are raking in the profits. If they are making more ammo they also are spending more on raw materials, production costs and labor than they did before. They have invested in increasing their AMERICAN labor force instead of moving production to a third world country.
I for one have no problem spending a little more for AMERICAN made products to keep jobs in America instead of boosting the Chinese economy.

Sorry, but if they did that at a loss they should be fired. They're for profit companies. Increased production without new factories should increase profit.

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Who watches the watchers?

I believe ammo manufacturers will be tentative about increasing output as long as there’s the threat of banning online sales.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the ammo bought by new gun owners is minimal compared to the ammo bought by hoarders. When I saw the riots every night on TV I certainly started buying more.

Depends.

If the increased production is having to be done with overtime labor until they can hire and train additional workers, production labor costs go up - which reduces the percentage of profit. Maybe more dollars in profit, but a lower percentage.

Same with raw materials. When demand drives the price of lead, copper, powder, etc. up, increased production comes at an increased materials cost, and increased cost reduces profit margins.

In any production environment there is a 'sweet spot" level of production where profit is maximized. Produce at either less OR more than that optimal rate and profit margins decrease. Most factories are set up to run within that optimal range.

Often times the operation can be re-optimized to a new higher level production "sweet spot" but it takes time to sort out and establish that new optimal level of higher production. Training new employees, and sourcing new supplies of materials don't happen overnight.

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Send lawyers, guns & money...

As I have stated in another thread about the above, $0.70rd for 5.56x45mm is NOT a bad price at this point in time.

For those who expect "everyone" to hold off buying, in order to drive prices down...
"...dream on 'cause it ain't goin'a happen so get used to it.

On the other hand, 7 million new gun owners this year, does NOT sound like, "...we're goin'a take all yer guns away..." to me. Far from it.

Factories also can't be run flat out indefinitely. Machines need maintenance and repair. A factory has what is known as a nameplate capacity for whatever, typically, running at about 90% of that is ideal over the long term. Burst activity of 100% or more can be sustained for short periods but that just means postponing the inevitable shutdown(s) for maintenance.

I turned it off after 22 seconds!

How unprofessional!

Maybe if these were independent companies again, rather than a monopoly owned by one big conglomerate there'd be a bit more free market competition?
Also, if that were the case, he might be a bit less inclined to tell off his customers.

I can tell you from firsthand knowledge, if this guy was the president of Remington back in the 80s when it was owned by DuPont, he'd be fired for his behavior and attitude.

New employees are not always the answer to increased production.Young people today dont stay with a manual labor job long,and it can be especially hard to keep people on night shift. You have to hire 5 new people to get 1 that will stay.In the meantime,all the hours spent training that individual are lost.I spent most of my life in a major wood shop,and we had to deal with these labor problems. In the meantime,the customers demand their products.

I thought this was a very good message dated December 18th from the president of Federal, CCI, Speer, and Remington ammo. Worth the 4 minutes to watch.

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Posted yesterday with the Hornady video as well.
A Message From Federal, CCI, Speer And Remington President Jason Vanderbrink On Ammo

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Who watches the watchers?

A good video that everyone needs to view to understand why we are experiencing a shortage of ammo at this time.

Informative videos both but I have to say that Jason Hornady is a lot more diplomatic in his video than Jason Vanderbrink from Vista Outdoor. I was a bit put off by Mr. Vanderbrink's arrogant, "I am getting tired" rant, which I perceived as "Look, you ignorant hillbillies, quit bothering me with your stupid rumor and conspiracy theories but please continue buy our ammunition anyway whenever it's available." I can understand his frustration but maybe he should take the time to brush up on his verbal communications skills before making another video. Addressing customers like that doesn't work for me.

Maybe starting off with "Thank you for being a customer" as Mr. Hornady did, would help.

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"In God We Trust"

Maybe his opening presentation wasn't ideal, but I think the representative depicted in the video is right in his commentary regarding Internet information. His explanation regarding current ammo status offers some insight and makes a lot of sense. The non-believers may think he's just part of the big conspiratorial effort, but these same folks are probably among those that enjoy spreading erroneous information on the Internet.

Last night, I watched both of these videos, and the messages made logical sense. One of the thoughts that needs to be entertained is, "is the current demand for ammunition that is being attributed to 7 million new gun owners a demand that will be sustained or is it an anomaly?" That is a significant question that needs to be answered before the existing producers contemplate facilities expansion.

In my opinion, the best move for our ammunition manufacturers is to run three shifts, lay in a supply of extra parts for the machinery, and do the best they can to do scheduled maintenance during the weekends. Meanwhile, we as the consumers, need to bite the proverbial bullet while the industry stabilizes.

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Judge control not gun control!

Unless and until ammunition manufacturing itself is banned (and how will that ever happen), those manufacturers will be cranking out as much as they can. Online sales is only one of many ways they can market their product. The ban of online sales , while inconvenient, would only increase the sales at the brick-and-mortar stores, or direct sales from telephone orders (remember calling the company directly to order a product? That's how it was done before the internet).

As for the Federal Ammo guy's whining, I can sympathize; it's probably inconceivable how much mail they've received, and so far as open-air complaints about them conspiring or cutting production goes, just take a look at the number of posts on this website and multiply it by all firearms discussion forums. I'm somewhat surprised he didn't start spewing expletives.

These guys (the ammunition manufacturers) also have a supply chain to keep intact; if just one piece they need doesn't get delivered in sufficient quantity, or not at all, the entire production suffers. Sure, they're making profits like never before; I would hope they aren't taking advantage of the situation and reaming the customer by exorbitant prices on a wholesale level, but I'm sure they are charging more for their product, just like the oil companies charge more under periods of higher demand, or groceries when there are shortages due to crop failures or poor growing seasons. Those increased prices only get compounded at the retail level, and again, I only hope the retailers are only raising prices equivalent to the increased demand and decreased availability.

This past year has been like no other; a vitriolic and confrontational national election, in the midst of a health crisis like we haven't seen in 100 years which has stretched our patience, created panic and worry, and crippled the economy, and still has no end in sight.

I don't like it any more than anyone else, and I'm doing much of what everyone else is doing; collecting, saving (hoarding if that's what you want to call it, but I'm not to the point I can support a war yet) and as much as anything, hoping for improvement.

I've been on the receiving end of a significant number of phone calls and emails from the ignorant masses about something they know very little about but they want to complain anyway. Personally, I think Jason Vanderbrink demonstrated a great deal of restraint, considering the unfounded figurative beating he's taken.

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If I were him, I would have also mentioned the irrational mass-hysteria that people go through every time something out of the ordinary, or something we don't like happens. If you think you need ammo just in case, then stock up before "just in case" happens. I hope those 7 million new gun owners don't hurt themselves. The local outdoor range here is offering free half hour instruction/training for al new gun owners.

Just based on what I read on social media pages -- the wild rumors and hysterical speculation -- I can only imagine what Mr. Vanderbrink has to put up with; I fully understand his frustration.

His point about the number of new shooters is very interesting...7,000,000! That's amazing! I see this as something that can only help the cause of gun rights.

Supply will catch up with demand eventually...we all just have to be a little patient.

First, after he stops whining its a pretty good video. But sorry, as CEO that is why he makes the big bucks. It is NEVER ok to rant, blame, or condescend to your customers. Someone put it well in the other thread on this topic - there is a lot more talk about brand/company loyalty than there is company loyalty to customers these days.

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Who watches the watchers?

I would suspect the volume of nasty communications is so great that this is how Mr. Vanderbrink's determined would be the best way to reply to the unfounded, rude, complainers.

Frankly, social media has ruined how Americans communicate with one another.

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Live long and prosper

And I might have mentioned the shortage in primers that is impacting everyone. Nice to hear your range is offering free safety/orientation for new owners - good for them!

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Who watches the watchers?

I understand what you are saying, but we all have limits. Being bombarded non-stop for months by conspiracy theory fueled nut jobs would certainly test mine.

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Release the Kraken

Finally, a CEO not afraid to address the ignorant/hateful segment of his customer base with all the respect they deserve.

Wish I had learned much earlier in my career that its okay to offend and/or fire a customer who is more trouble than they're worth.

Hopefully so many will be offended that the rest of us can find all we want on the shelves soon. He won't be lacking for appreciative customers for many years to come.

How about 7% increase in new gun owners? Because that is what 7 million is since there were already 100 million gun owners.

How does 2.1% more of the US population became gun owners sound? Because that is what 7 million in a population of 330 million is, just 2.1%

Do you really think that relatively small increase in our numbers will be enough to stop or even slow down the left? Here's another data point to put it in perspective. More than ten TIMES that many voted for President Trump. Does that appear to be working out for us?

While 7 million is a significant increase in the number of gun owners, and their purchases have had an impact on an industry that wasn't prepared for it, that certainly isn't any reason to smugly think we're in any kind of majority or that we're safe now, or that the left isn't going to proceed with their plans and STATED THREATS to disarm us. Especially now that they will have at least 2 if not all 3 of the centers of power (Presidency, House, and Senate).

If you think 7 million new gun owners secures our rights, I think you're whistling past the graveyard. Just like thinking 70 cents a round for ammo is a "good deal", I honestly don't understand your thought process.

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Send lawyers, guns & money...

I hear you. Not everyone is cut out to be the President/CEO of a public company. But, if you get the big bucks and sit in the big chair than you should be able to suck it up, smile, and do your job without whining. Saying something specific to individual customers that have crossed a line is one thing, broadcasting such comments (quite literally) to the entire world is completely different. No, this isn't getting respect as some have argued - its behaving in a way that marginalizes your final (and important) message.

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Who watches the watchers?

While that is a lot of ammo it is going to be a short term blip, not the cause of a permanent shortage.

Not everyone that buys a gun becomes a shooter. A lot of those new gun owners bought one because they were scared and having checked "Buy a gun" off their todo list are going to load the their new gun and tell themselves they will go to a range or take a class once COVID is over but never do it.

A different take on the math is that the National Shooting Sports Foundation estimates that there were 8.7 billion rounds of ammo sold in 2018. There are about 400 million guns in the US. Actually 265 million to 600 million depending who you ask but I am going with 400. That works out to 22 rounds of ammo per gun. So 7 million more guns would only raise ammo consumption by less than 2%.

The people buying big quantities of ammo and driving up prices are people that were gun enthusiasts before 2020 and are worried they will run low on ammo unless they buy as much as possible right now. About 3% of the US population own 50% of the total guns since us enthusiasts always seem to find room for one more in the safe. The same is true for ammo consumption. This shortage, like the past ones, is being driven by those of us that go to the range regularly. We are the ones panic buying and driving up prices, not new shooters.

I too have been on the receiving end of complaints, insults and tirades from individuals and groups that had little or no understanding of the issue at hand. It was part of my job to help them to understand without appearing condescending or rude. Sometimes those individuals or groups went away feeling better and with a better understanding of our side of things and sometimes they didn't but they could never truthfully say that they went away feeling insulted.

As a leader, whether in the private sector or public, handling stress is part of your job and nothing is to be gained by talking down to people. Being arrogant, curt or snarky to others certainly reflects poorly on the person who does it and often on the organization one represents. I believe that Mr. Hornady's manner of relating the same message was much better than Mr. Vanderbrink's and almost certainly better received by most who have watched both videos.

This post will end my remarks on this subject and I apologize for the thread drift.

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"In God We Trust"

Our local plants run 7 days a week, 2 shifts a day. Maintenance is done during breakdowns, unfortunately! Machinery parts are being produced continuously.

I bet a person with good references and work ethic could get a job, if you don't mind working off shifts!

Or so I hear locally, I have been wrong before!

Ed

Or at least those of us who never anticipated such a scenario and bought it when it was cheap and available.

has anybody offered him some cheese to go with that whine?

Folks seriously ill with thousands dying, millions out of work, tens of thousands of small business's permanently closed, and he's "I'm tired, I'm tired..."

If I was a board member of his company, I'd be asking for no confidence vote meeting

Preaching to the choir here.

But when I ask long time shooters why they didn't see this coming and stock up they often have have valid reasons. Including these:

1 - If I have a lot of ammo laying around I go to the range more often and shoot more rounds when I do. I cannot afford to shoot that much.

2 - My wife would get mad if I bought a 2, $200 cases of ammo once a year but doesn't mind or notice if I buy 4, $10 boxes once a month.

3 - I have young kids in the house and do not feel comfortable having ammo that is not locked up in the house. Not enough room in my safe for guns and that much ammo.

4 - I worry about theft and do not want to have thousands of dollars worth of ammo lying around. And worry that putting it into a safe might create a bomb if there was a fire.

Count me in as one who will cut these manufacturers a little slack right now. If they had not increased production I would be ticked off, and rightfully so - but they increased their production and shipping as much as they could so I feel it's reasonable to be at least a little understanding of their issues right now.

As for the guy in the first video being grumpy, I also understand that anyone can only take being the butt of just so many conspiracy theories, false facts and stories, and hate mail before you just have to say something. Everybody has their own personal frustration level and I'm pretty sure his tank was over-full by now! We all pop off every now and again, and he has the same right to as the rest of us!

Even if you don't agree with his method, you do have to admit he got our attention...

. . . . seems to be the new way Americans communicate with each other thanks to social media.

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Live long and prosper

The Speer/CCI guy is dealing with the often rude, arrogant, and impatient "want it right now" Internet/ cell phone/ text messaging crowd, many of whom lack the maturity to accept the situation as it is. Things will get better, though not by tomorrow.

With these shortages occurring regularly over the past twenty-five years, one would think the complainers would stock up when products are cheap and plentiful, but that requires some foresight that perhaps many of them just don't have.

I think the Speer/ CCI guy handled the matter quite reasonably considering the demeanor of much of the crowd he had to deal with.

I have had similiar experiences and I concurr with everything you said. I was going to create my own post but you have basically covered everything I could have said.

I always kept in mind that no matter how upset or abusive a caller got (and there were some who were very abusive), if afterward I was asked the question "Were you disrespectful/impolite/Did you raise your voice to the caller?" I wanted to be able to reply quickly with a straight face "No" rather than "Yes, but . . . ."

There's a similar thread with this video on another site I visit. Over there everybody is supporting this guy. I, for one, have a very low tolerance for rude and stupid. Vanderbrink did a much better job of dealing with it and explaining the situation than I would have.

I suspect supply would be greatly
increased if ammo makers weren't
committed to producing so many
designs in each caliber.

For instance, you want 9 mm, then
only in round nose jacketed, 124 grain. Or
.44 Mag, then only flat point jacketed
in 240 grain. Or .30 rifle, how about
all spire point in one weight.

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Ubi Est Mea

I thought he did a good job. More folks are owning guns now & need ammo, for sure. Demand is high so ammo factories are doing their best to keep up. Cry, bitch, moan all you want but that is the thing.

I don't think that many, if any on this Forum are doing the things talked about. We grip and complain to each other about the availability and prices of ammo. It would be interesting to know how much harassment that he has actually had from the public. He is probably hearing from the the dealers and distributors more than individuals. Anyhow it is good to now we have so many more shooters.
I have no doubt that ammo manufacturers are operating at capacity. The nasty phone calls from shooters????????????????????

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Mighty 90's,Trying 4 a 100!

I've not noticed an ammo shortage myself. I learned my lesson when Slick Willie was in office that you make hay when the sun shines.

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I guess there will always be the ignorant and naive people that will think there's no ammo because the manufacturer's are storing it in a secret warehouse, or not making any because they're lazy or just want to screw their customers. When there is zero ammo on the shelves I would not think the new gun owners are buying all the .303 British, 32-20, 6.5 Swiss, 416 Rigby, 45-90, 280 Ackley Improved, 25-35, 32 H&R Magnum or all the dozens of other calibers that are not real popular. While watching the rioting, stealing, burning and violence on TV I WOULD think every single American would want some additional ammo.

I have watched the video several times, Under the circumstances, Mr. Vanderbrink used great deal of restraint in his comments. No one likes being the target of intentionally misleading comments about themselves and the company they run. Even though there is no mention of it, I assume there were a number of threating messages aimed at Mr. Vanderbrink, his staff, or family.

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Always Stay Strong!

Did anyone consider that the threatening messages may be coming from someone other than shooters? There are organizations trying to disrupt everything that has to do with guns including ammo. They don't operate in the open and little is known about them.
A few come to mind. A UN organization in OKC that was pushing hard for open borders and restricted gun rights. They did have, until a few years ago, their minutes on the Web but got smart and took them down. There was a Chapter in Tulsa also. There were and probably still are Chapter's in all major cities.
The Peace House in Bethany OK that stands with every extreme movement that comes along. Not lovers of shooters.
The ACLU is no friend in general of the gun industry or owners. They have in a very few instances sided with us.
These are just a few examples. Check around your area.

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Mighty 90's,Trying 4 a 100!

One particular thing that disturbed me in Mr. Vanderbrink's video is he said he had people SHOWING UP AT HIS FACTORY with their complaints, innuendos and conspiracy theories. I know that they want to be friendly to the public and their customer base, but this has got to be a genuine waste of time for whomever has to deal with these folks and repeatedly answer the same questions over and over and over again.

Dealing with these conspiracy theorists over the internet is one thing, but some of them can be a little scary in person (I'm thinking Pizza-gate, here...).