Exactly backwards. Conspiracy theories arise in an environment of insufficient information. Vandercreep provides no information, stimulating conspiracy theories.


You have no such information. Vandercreep et al are not releasing production figures.

[citation needed]

Links to these alleged production reports, please.


Not how companies work. Ammo production numbers to a bank makes me smile.

I'll bite. I checked my notes and can't find it. There is a shortage of ammunition. Manufacturers claim they are making more. Econ 101 can't square that.

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I've still got it made.

No conspiracy here. People are buying ammo before it can hit the shelf. Normally it would sit there for a while, maybe even until more hit the shelf.

We have many members on this very forum who have posted they have a multi-year supply of ammo, yet they still buy the limit if they see it on the shelf.

The great down fall to all conspiracy theories is WHY. Why would a company in the ammo making business not crank out every single round they could make in this crazy market?

The answer: They are.

People are scared and frustrated. My brother just paid $280 for 120 rounds of 12 gauge buckshot. Its chump change to him (and a lot of others).

As long as fear dominates rational thought this will go on. Remember when the same kind of madness made .22 ammo unavailable? People lost their minds thinking the one kind of ammo that will never go away would go away. Did it?

I’ve learned its never worth it to argue about conspiracies. Every bit of pro-conspiracy info is 100% reliable, while every bit of contrary evidence somehow also proof of the conspiracy.

Relax. This has happened before. It will happen again. In two years the pendulum will begin its inexorable swing the other direction.

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“What you got, ain’t new.”

Sir.

What is happening in this "country" now is the same as what's happened before?

Ever.

Just asking.

Senseless ammo panic buying.

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“What you got, ain’t new.”

This all IS a conspiracy. I'm just not sure who's doing the conspiring.

There is a transportation problem. Lots of other things go by air - many fewer planes are flying. Truck shipments are down as well. The USPS is being bashed right and left. Look at the many complaining threads on this very forum.

When I go to Walmart the ammo shelves are bare. But the paint shelves are sparse as well. Look at the pharmacy shelves. Sometimes I have to travel to 3 different drug stores to get OTC meds. My prescription meds are ALWAYS late a few days because they are not in stock on the day I need them.

I went to West marine the other day. It looked like their inventory was about half of normal. I asked the manager if the store was closing and he said no! They just can't get shipments in, even though they order everything as necessary. I wonder if the guys that manufacture outboard motor oil and boat trailer tires and wheel bearing grease are holding back production too!!

Stores that get ammo get periodic shipments. The stock goes on the shelf. The shelves are always stocked. Now, within a few hours that single shipment is gone.

Don't blame those of us that have a stockpile. We were proactive and bought before there was panic. And now we are not buying any more so that others have a chance. If nobody bought any ammo for the next 6 months, the shelves would be full again.

Let's see... 7,000,000 new gun buyers times 2 boxes (100 rounds) each of ammo minimum yields a new demand on the system for an additional 700,000,000 rounds of ammo if you assume that the existing customers continue buying at their pre-panic rates. Seven Hundred Million rounds of additional ammunition demand. What industry can absorb that kind of sudden increase in the midst of all the rest of the complications going on these days? For that matter, how much ammunition was produced during our various wartime years? I remember from history that ammo was rationed or nearly unavailable to civilians during WW II.

Just something to think about.
Green Frog

I just did a little search, and through the war years (WW II) the total production of small arms ammo with the full help and encouragement of the US Government was about 1.1 Billion rounds per year, which would be about the equivalent of what is being demanded of the industry right now for civilian use (with the new load of 700 Million.) Remember too that the US industries took many months to ramp up to this... with full cooperation and assistance from the government. Remember, the financial "industry" has recently tried to put the squeeze on US manufacturers of all things related to firearms.

Froggie

I wish I could say my not buying ammo was that altruistic. And I do think leaving ammo for those that really need it is the right thing to do. But not wanting to pay 3 times as much as it should cost has a lot more to do with my not buying ammo right now.

Everybody is blaming somebody these days. Additionally, there are rumors / suppositions / fears that huge taxes will eventually be imposed, and that infamous word "banned" comes up from time to time. If we all believed those tales maybe then we WOULD be willing to pay the high price.

Last time I researched this the number was 25 billion rounds produced 1942-1945.

The CHINA VIRUS did not help,
Maybe this information will help explain,
Copper Mines Devastated During Covid | OilPrice.com

Global Lead Mining to 2024 and the Impact of COVID-19

What happened to Caffeine Free Coke? Discontinued? - Frugal Cooking

Sweeping Mexican factory shutdown strains U.S. production of critical supplies - POLITICO

Around the House: Expect COVID-19 to delay materials

I stockpiled like crazy right after Y2K didn't happen and ammo prices cratered (especially surplus), till the AWB sunsetted in 2004 and ammo prices really went up. Had pretty much paired the *essential* calibers to 4 and 3 of those 4, military calibers, plus, .22 LR.

Before 2019, when I bought my first .38 sp, I don't recall buying ANY ammo, except the occasional brick of CCI SV for the kids to blast and save my SK made Wolf. I still shot regulary, but had plenty of ammo.

I saw online and at the LGS 7.62x51 was selling for .75 to $1/rnd (IF it was available). I had paid $149.99/k, shipped from AIM. Bought a bunch. Still have a bunch.

Don't even pay much attention to current ammo prices since I certainly won't be buying and likely won't be selling either. Don't need the $$ and, to me, the ammo is more valuable.

Rob

I bought a coupla thousand rnds of .22lr and a 600rnd case of 9mm in the spring last year. that was just to make sure the grand kids had fodder for their shopkeepers and so I'd have a little practice ammo for the son in laws to shoot at the metal silhouette target out back when they come to visit. My regular stock pile will last several years at the rate I shoot. I did take advantage of the cases of free shipped bargain .22lr and handgun ammo over the couple of years before covid.

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dd884
JMHO-YMMV

Couple that with reduced output due to COVID infections and having to social distance employees and you have an even bigger shortfall in supply.

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VCDL, GOA, NRA

True, but the obsessive paranoiacs and conspiracy advocates won't buy any explanation not based on theories with negative and evil perspectives.

We have a free market. That is what is dictating the prices. It is actually working the way it is supposed to by design.
Y'all just don't like the design when it goes against ya.

Ayep


Finally got my last backordered shipment of 7.62x54r Silver Bear 203 gr soft points for my mosin

Only ordered it in like, October! lol, the last of Russian ammo we might get, yaknow?

Had some luck going to Federal site and ordering directly from them earlier, cut out the middle man, before prices skyrocketed

I'm the CEO of a billion dollar ammo company. I am accountable to my investors and creditors. My profit comes from selling ammo to whomever I can get to buy it. So I wake up one morning and call the plant managers and say, "Shut down production and lets screw with everyone!". Better yet, I'm contacted by some politicians who think that Karl Marx was right and that guns are evil and want to disarm everyone but them and put the gun industry out of business. Bernie asks me if I could help them put me out of business and my response is, "What can I do to help!". The only thing going on right now is that the industry has become a victim of it's own success and the distribution system has been shut down for the last year. Both will be self correcting. Take a deep breath! Take a pill if you have to. Relax! Things will be back to how they were. Maybe better. Conserve your ammo a little so that you can enjoy shooting for the next few months. If this truly is some multi layered, deep state, conspiracy, then we have way bigger problems that not being able to go to the range this weekend. This too shall pass!

It must have been on the same UPS truck as the chain saw parts I ordered last year! If you believe what you hear, all the tariffs on Russia and China that have been put in place over the last four years are about to go away. You might actually see foreign ammo come blasting back onto the market.

Listen! He know's that he is talking about. I remember that it only took 6 years for 22 ammo to come back around....
and a year for it to go back away.

We're going to be SWIMMING in ammo in a little bit. Everything going on out there practically insures it.

It will probably be even cheaper than ever too!

I certainly applaud the optimism shown by some in this thread.

However...

In "Subterranean Homesick Blues", Bob Dylan hit the nail on the head:


You don't need a weatherman

To know which way the wind blows.

What I don't get is why so many people get/got caught off guard...why in this day and age, so many people failed to stock up ahead of time? Did we know Covid and "social unrest" was going to strike big time in 2020? Nope. But we've had plenty of warning signals over the past...ohh, 12 years...that everyone should know better to have stocked up well in advance. Did everyone forget the lessons of the post-Sandy Hook market? Did everyone forget that 2020 was a really critical election year? IMHO, in these times, there is no excuse for anyone being unprepared...and that goes for both ammo, and anything else like toilet paper, food, medicine. Any reasonably intelligent person can look around at the state of things and know that stockpiling is now a necessity. I think someone else on another forum said it best. They said "look at what you have in your guns and ammo stash. What you see is all that you have into the forseeable future."

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Smith. And Wesson. And Me!

Don't forget about the Ultramax Ammunition plant fire in South Dakota in 2018. It burned to the ground in a fire that was ruled accidental. 2,000,000 rounds were lost. Ultramax used to make some pretty good ammunition. I liked their .45-70 stuff. The fire killed them and I understand that they are now out of business. One less source for quality ammo.

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Charlie Flick
SWCA 729 HF 215

Well, one of the problems is, they never had to supply us all in the first place, even when the market was calm.

Brass ammo
Price leader has almost always been PPU (Serbia), with Fiocchi (Italy and US), and CBC (Sellier & Bellot -Czech; Magtech- Brazil; MEN- Germany; CBC-Brazil) in the mix.

Also figure in Ruag, with Norma, Hirtenberger, Geco, RWS; all European. Not often the cheapest, but they were prominent in the market.

Are we seeing much of anything from these companies, at all? Or PMC from Korea?

I'm not downplaying Federal, but to ask them to cover the entire market is like asking GM alone to supply cars for everyone in the country- they're just not geared up to do that in normal times, and definitely couldn't do it when EVERYONE wants a new one right now.

Wow!! I guess I will add to this thread!
Some really strange ideas coming out!
Ed

Same here.

I'll admit, gettin' while the getting is good can sometimes be really difficult. When you see 30 of something sitting on a shelf, grabbing 3 when you really just need 1 sometimes seems dumb.

But...

Knowing how panics work, not having at least a small supply set aside is just being foolish.

With that said, what I still cannot get is those willing to pay outrageous amounts of $$ for something that really isn't a "need".

People are buying ammo at high prices because they can and "need" is another relative word. "Need" and "want" is the same thing if one can afford it.
There are plenty of people that have never bought ammo and wouldn't buy ammo at any price because they don't "need" any.
There are people that go out and eat a $100. meal just because they can and other people think that is foolish.
There are people that don't buy new vehicles because they think there is a lot of money lost on one in the first few years but some can afford too and think it is money well spent. Larry

Can't argue with that.

Sure seems many are mad, even furious, that the easy availability and low prices of a year or so ago are not to be had today. I've lived through several of these panics, and if I have to pay more now, it's my own fault for not "buying it cheap and stacking it deep" pre-pandemic, pre-summer riots, and pre-election. I just don't believe it's some kind of giant ammunition manufacturer/distributor/dealer conspiracy to keep us all from having all the cheap ammo and components we want. "This too shall pass"......YMMV

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NRA Life, COTEP 640

ppl pay'n $200 bx 50 .38spl

I looked for a Redding T7 press yesterday. None to be found. Even loading presses are now scarce. Never seen that. This one is going to be long and deep, maybe two, three years.

I feel sorry for anyone who needs a firearm, ammo or components but not enough to sell any of mine. All I can say is remember the winter of 2020 and be glad you survived it. Next time gear up.

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That's just somebody talkin.

I remember a new vehicle costing $2,800 but if I buy one now it will be a little higher. I remember when .38 Specials were a lot cheaper than they are now but if I want a box I have too pay the going price. We can't live in the past.

A great many, probably the majority of gun owners, usually purchase very little ammo.

These ar observations from the last ammo panics.

People who usually buy and use 50-100 rounds every few months or a year, start suddenly buying 10 times as much.

I had a customer that would come in once a month on Friday, he would get done with work early, stop by and purchase 1 box of 45acp, and usually a soda. I don't think I ever sold him anything else. He owned 2 guns. An Ak and a Glock 21. The panic hit and now He was now in twice a week. He made a one time purchase of 10 Ak mags. He would buy the limit usually 4 box's of 45acp every time, 2 box's of 762x39 and 2 glock 21 mags very time.

There where lots of regulars like him. The guys that came in for 2 box's of slugs for hunting season each year, 1 to sight in, and one to hunt with, where now in every week for. 25 round box's of 00, and slugs, and bricks of 22lr.

New gun buyers usually purchased between 0-2 box's of ammo pre panic, and I often need saw them again. During the panic, they usually wanted as much as they could get, and typically where back for more within a week or 2.

If we learned anything from the great TP shortage of 20, people buy what they don't need out of fear. Pretty sure there wasn't an increase in TP usage last year, but for some reason, folks thought they had to stack it high and deep. We were 6 months into it before I bought the first package. My current stock was sufficient to get me through the initial panic.

Rosewood

I'm just curious - and maybe I missed it in the above posts - but have any of our overseas members chimed in on the ammo shortage? Most of us here are talking about the domestic market, but I'd like to know what the forum members in other countries are experiencing? Probably the same thing, but it would be interesting to hear from them on what they are dealing with in their locations.

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Smith. And Wesson. And Me!

Well I get it perfectly. You and I are "shooters" and maybe "collectors" and we are tuned in to the happenings of the world because its our hobby. But the average guy with a wife and 2 kids, and a job, and home repairs, yada, yada has a lot on his plate and probably didn't really think about it.

Last year we were down to only a few rolls of TP before we could find any. I was about ready to bring out the old Sears catalog. While we were stockpiling rimfire ammo and primers we weren't paying attention to poopn. I mean, who wuda thunk it?

I think there is enough ammo available for self protection. If a person can own a gun he can manage a box or two for function test and defense. If it can be shown that is not the case, I might give up enough for that. When the TP shortage hit it had been over for a good while before I bought any. I wasn't out but it did seem prudent to stock back up in case of a rebound.........

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dd884
JMHO-YMMV

I can still remember sitting in a gas line back in '73? Saying "I don't care how much it costs, as long as I can get it". A buck a round for .38s is still better than 2 bucks. I sure hope this situation gets better.

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No baby we aint

Locally, I’m seeing ammo stay around longer, due to stratospheric prices. For example, federal 150rd .223, 169.99, 50rd cci std velocity 22, 14.99. No components though, go figure. So, there may be a flicker of hope. The tv car auction equivalent of firearm auctions suggests otherwise unfortunately.


But, give it time, it’ll calm down like the others have. Take a deep breath and tune out the news and the neck beards.

Come on Federal make us .44 caliber snub nose users a .44 Special +P self-defense load we can be proud to carry! Like for carry in the Performance Center 629 2.6" as a ultimate man stopper but with great controllability out of such a great concealed carry gun!