So with the withdraw of the USA from the East...........

No more rifle ammo or bombs being used.......

the ammo on ships and in bunkers can come back to the mainland.........

Stock piles should be built back up again and...........

might there be a chance that we might get a light at the end of the tunnel ?

A pleasant day dream. Anything in military inventories will probably be transferred to military depots for future requirements, and I doubt any would reach the surplus market for a number of years (pretty long shelf life for military ammo in sealed containers, properly stored).

Example: While I was in Vietnam (1969-1971) we were routinely using .50 BMG ammunition produced during WW2. Probably mountains of the stuff manufactured 1942 to 1945, then tucked away in military depots for decades.

It is possible that military ammunition contracts will be cut back, allowing more of the domestic manufacturing capacity to be converted to civilian products. I suspect that even that will be a year or two down the road.

There could be some deals on components such as bullets, primers, and powders. We saw a lot of that after Vietnam, from the latter 1970s into the 1990s. A lot of stuff intended for completion as military ammo is likely to be left in the supply line when war-level military production slows down.

Our “war level” consumption of ammunition in the rather small Afghanistan theater has been very low for the past 18 months as we started our drawn down and had far fewer military shooting actions. Witness the fact that we lost no soldiers to enemy fire in the prior 18 months up to last month.

Unfortunately, we left a lot of ammunition in Afghanistan. There probably has been little to none shipped there in over a year, I suspect.

Military ammo that impacts the civilian market is basically 5.56 and 7.62. Along with 9mm, those are among the first cartridges to reappear after a shortage. Component shortages and personnel shortages, as well as Remington’s bankruptcy, have had more to do with this latest shortage than anything to do with the military. Remington’s plant is back up running and component shortages are decreasing. Regardless of military supplies, production for the civilian market is coming back—except of course for unpredictable government interference like the Russian ammo ban.

I don’t see the “end” of the Afghan war as having any positive impact on the civilian market. Lots more ammo is consumed in training than in actual firefights with our current enemies.

Doubt that there will be a significant impact. Military ammo stockpiled will remain there. Ammo made in World War I was still around when World War II started. World War II ammo was used in Korea and Vietnam.

The impacts of military surplus ammo tend to be greatest when calibers are discontinued for military use. Tons of military surplus .30-06 hit the market when the M-1 Garand was dropped as the service rifle in the U.S., then by foreign users. Same goes for .30 Carbine and 45 ACP. No country is dropping the 9mm as their issue pistol caliber, nor are they dropping the 5.56mm carbine/rifle/SAW.

The best we can hope for is to see component supplies increase and labor shortages to decrease.

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VCDL, GOA, NRA

Don't remember seeing any .45 ACP surplus, after the M9 was adopted. But then all the serviceable M1911A1's went to War Stores in deep storage. Now that the government is starting to sell some of the M1911A1's, maybe we will see some ammo.

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USMC 69-93 Combat Pistol Inst.

There was a good amount coming from Israel in the 1990's, sold under the IMI brand, cases were TZZ-XX, the XX being the last two digits of the year of production. I did not buy any of it as I was reloading and had bought 1000 pieces of mil-surp brass. That brass was TZZ-86 and was of excellent quality.

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VCDL, GOA, NRA

A few years back we saw a fair bit of 'white box' 9mm NATO from S&B and MEN hit the market. Contract overruns, I believe. Might have been a result of NATO scaling back heavily in Iraq etc; as far as I know it could have been a result of the calm in the Balkans after years of trouble. Heck maybe both.

Based on the timeframes involved, we might see similar in 5-10 years.

In the late '80's there were problems with IMI ammo in .45 ACP. We had to turn in our ammo supply for destruction. I was the Guard Chief at a Naval Weapons Station at the time. Since we were a priority due to the nature of what we did, so we were reissued ammo immediately. The ammo that was issued to us was WW Match Ammo. We got 60,000 rounds, they gave us the ammo we required for duty and our training allocation. Could not believe it when I saw what we were getting, I asked why and was told that is all that we have to issue right now. I still have 35 pounds of that brass that was policed up after range details and I use it for reloading. The IMI was burnt up in a large incinerator on the Weapons Station. Could hear the rounds cooking off day and night.

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USMC 69-93 Combat Pistol Inst.

Like I said, I did not buy any of the loaded ammo, only surplus 1986 brass and the brass was excellent for reloading.

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VCDL, GOA, NRA

I could be wrong, but I have a feeling if such ammo did become available from military stores, the people in charge today would have it dumped at sea before they let it go to the public.

Larry

What were the problems with IMI/TZZ ammo?

You are correct the IMI brass is good. I have some in my stash of .45 ACP brass (all from the mid 80's).

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USMC 69-93 Combat Pistol Inst.

If I remember correctly, it was overpressure. Something about the waterproofing they were using. I think a couple of weapons failures were believed to be caused by the ammo. All our ammunition was withdrawn and replace by Match Ammo.

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USMC 69-93 Combat Pistol Inst.

Or leave it behind for the enemy before shipping it here.

Besides leaving it behind for the enemy to use I think that's somewhat incorrect. There has always been a certain amount of surplus military ammunition available. I don't know the whys and wherefores or how it was done but back in the day I used to buy NATO ammunition and "battle packs" of milspec ammunition. If ammunition was dumped at sea back in the day I don't know about it but it's possible. But getting caught doing it today would raise an environmental frenzy I'm sure.

The other side of the coin is NOT the availability of military ammunition but the ability of manufacturers to turn back to more civilian ammo manufacturing. Remington is supposed to be back pounding out commercial ammunition - if that's true then other ammo makers should be able to do it, too.

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Come and take it!!