In the poll asking how much you will pay for a 50 round box of FMJ 9mm about 40% of people are saying $10 is their limit.

If you are part of that 40% how long are you willing to wait for that price?

Looking back at what I have paid at various times adjusting for inflation ammo prices in 2019 were the cheapest in the 40 years I have been buying ammo. I found a 1991 issue of the Shotgun News and looking at the prices a case of brass case FMJ 9mm was going for about $250 to nearly $400. Sure, the price in 1991 dollars was about half that but I make a lot more now than I did in 1991. It is real easy to forget inflation and just remember the price on the box. It is also easy to remember the absolute lowest price and think that is normal when it is not.

The low prices in 2019 were the result of ammo companies building new plants after the 2014 shortage only to have to sell cheaply when demand fell to pay for those plants, competition from overseas, cheap commodity prices and a strong dollar that made them even cheaper. It was a perfect storm for affordable ammo. Just the recent surge in inflation, particularly for metals like copper, has probably permanently increased the cost of ammo by at least 10%.

I still think its possible the price will get down to $220, maybe $210 a case but I am not holding my breath for $200.

ETA: The "$250 to nearly $400" prices I mentioned were after adjusting for 30 years of inflation. The price in 1991 dollars was about half that.

Remember, those “2022 dollars” have less buying power on everything including ammo. If ammo were cheaper overall, this would be an indicator of less inflation, and as inflation drifts up and the value of the dollar drifts down, it’s natural that ammo costs more today. I believe there’s a little room for ammo to come down, but “bargain basement ammo” will probably sell for $17-20 per box of 50 in the “new normal”.

Froggie

I'm not sure where you are, but, locally, the price per box of factory 9MM FMJ cartridges runs between $16 and $18...

We will never see $10 per box 9mm ammo again.
Will never drop below $16 / $17 per box.

It already has dropped below $16. Norma had a sale right after Thanksgiving where it was a little under $15 including shipping.

I agree about never seeing $10 again. While I think $11 might be possible I not going to wait for that sort of price to start buying.

Never ? I purchased a case of 1000 rounds 9mm from Ammo Shop Online for $14.75 per 50 about 6 weeks ago. It's out there , you just have make the purchase when you see it .

I see a case setting across the room from me. Larry

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SIC SEMPER TYRANNIS

A year ago, I was one of the holdouts. $200 a case was my price point... I clearly remember cases being as low as $160 for S&B and Fiocchi. $200 didn't seem all that impossible to return to, once the rush was over.

After watching things for awhile, I picked up a case of Norma in November for $300. I didn't "need" it, but I could afford to add it, and I just don't like the way things are trending.

In my opinion, we could see things back down to $200 a case for known quality brands in 2 years... or we could see a ban of online purchasing nationally by then. I prefer the former, but am beginning to prepare for the latter.

If/when online gets shut down, the local prices will rise. Places like Academy and Cabela's etc no longer compete with Walmart, and they won't have to worry about Sgammo or Targetsportsusa either. No reason to sell below $15 a box at that point.

I posted at the beginning of this that it'd be a year and change and prices would get back to normal, then crater for a bit before the next panic as they always had. Now I think I was wrong, and I don't think $200/case centerfire is coming back. It's really changed my relationship with the shooting hobby, I'm now shooting practical things and rimfire to stay proficient, but I don't think I'll be doing anymore long days of just blasting away or friendly competitions.

These days most of the lead I'm slinging is split shot on the end of my tippet. It stinks but I'm priced out of the converting money into noise and fun category.

I'm willing to pay $12.00 to $12.50 a box/50 but no more. I also doubt we will ever see $10/box again.

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Freedom is never free!!
SWCA #3437

Its got me considering whether to hang on to the reloading equipment that has been gathering dust for the past 15 years. Even at today's price I am not considering reloading cartridges I shoot a lot of like 9mm and 223.

But a couple of cartridges I do not shoot very often have become very expensive and it might make sense to reload for them even though I do not like reloading.

In particular every two or three months I put about 100 rounds through my 44 and the ammo I like best is now over $1/round. And my favorite ammo for the bolt action 308 I shoot once or twice a year is now nearly $3/round. I expect those prices to come down too but given the small volume and high cost of those cartridges I am going to hang on to my press, scales, etc until I decide for sure.

Even handloading with a 10 cent primer is about $7.00/box if I use my cast bullets. If ammo prices drop and primers stay high, it might be worth buying factory ammo at $10.

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Just Say No - To Social Media

I have enough supply to last my normal shooting (2 times a week), for about 3yrs. If I do need to buy any I'm hoping that by that time it's about 15.00 a box. I kind of agree we may never see 10.00 a box again.

Yeah, when $250/case hits I'll get 4. If it goes to $200 I'll get 5 more. That should hold me for this lifetime. I'm still shooting the last of my 2004 "BassPro mass purchase" of 13,500 rds of WWB 9mm 115gr ball @ $3.88/box. I bought about 6K Federal AE at the same time but that was $5/box. Joe

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Wisdom chases me; I'm faster

Answer: Pretty much however long it takes. With 2k worth of 9mm factory rounds and supplies to reload another 8k, I should be good for quite some time. Plus I can reload and shoot several other calibers AND I have 25k worth of 22lr stockpiled. By the time I get through all that and HAVE to buy ammo I'll likely not be very able or interested. If I'm not already pushing up daisies before then.

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Send lawyers, guns & money...

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Sure you did

Lucky Gunner has 1000 rounds of Winchester white box 9mm for $550. That's 55 cents per round if my math is right = $27.50 for a box of 50 (the case actually has fifty 20-round boxes). They have training ammunition at .37 cents per round so fifty is $18.50. They have Tula 115 gr 9mm at $16.00 for fifty round boxes. Tula sales are about to be banned in the USA (I think it's an international political thing but I am uncertain) and Blazer for .17 cents a round making a fifty round box = $17.00 - - that's about as cheap as it's going to get presently. With inflation as it currently stands and supply way behind demand I'd recommend buying the ammo you need now if you I don't have a sufficient supply. It's not pretty out there..........

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Come and take it!!

Not to contradict you but @ 17¢ A round that would put a box of 50 @ $8.50, not $17. For $8.50 I think it's worth buying for sure.

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Freedom is never free!!
SWCA #3437

I noticed that too.
I'm betting that should have said 34 cents a round or $17 per box of 50

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Send lawyers, guns & money...

I remember (20-30yrs ago) buying Remington yellow box UMC 38sp and 9mm for $6 a box when Dicks' put the stuff on sale. I would typically buy 12 of each whenever I went in. Good memories of a good store that became a bad store.

Given that the only thing the ammo manufacturers and retailers cater to are the .223/5.56 & 9mm blasters at the expense of everything else, including rimfire and reloading supplies, I really don't care!

I don't think we're ever going to see $10 boxes again on a regular basis. Maybe $12 if we ever get back to pre pandemic availability.

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Or something like that . . .

Good stuff, $340/K to your doorstep. Joe
Federal Champion 9mm Luger Ammo 115 Grain FMJ

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Wisdom chases me; I'm faster

I'm more concerned about seeing small pistol primers get down to pre-panicdemic prices. But I can probably hold out for another 2 to 3 years.

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I need ammo, not a ride.

Won't wait, won't be buying any ammo unless it is something special, i.e., Norma's ENVY.

As my sainted Irish Grandmother used to say "Wish in one hand and..."....

Not waiting to buy any at $10 because it will NEVER go there. Get real!

Cheers!

P.S. Apparently that "40%" won't be buying ANY 9mm in the future...

I have not bought any in years. I Have been making my own even when people told me I could buy them as cheap or cheaper. I don't even know what they went for 3 years ago.

I said I'd wait 4 years, but if I saw $12-13 per box I'd get a case if free shipping too.

As long as it takes me to walk to my closet

The best I've seen lately was $16.95. But they had a lot of it. Much better than last year.

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No baby we aint

Everything is going up...and up...and up.

A decade ago, if you had told me what Colt Pythons, S&W N-Frames, or S&W factory Combat Grips would be selling for today, I'd have thought you mad...

If I see quality name-brand 9mm for less than $20 per box, I'm tempted. At $15 per box, I'll scarf it up...

Every time one of these threads comes up about the high prices of ammo these days it reminds me of the sgammo website. Sam had been warning his customers for a couple of years that ammo prices were at the lowest for many years, supplies were plentiful,!t wasn’t going to last and to stock up while the time was right.But oooohnoo! All the gun savvy folks on here knew better and now are squalling about shortages and pricing😩😩😩

For those of us paying attention, we've seen this same cycle twice in the past 15 years. Back when Barry O was elected, you couldn't buy .223 ammo for less than $20 a box and similar things happened to other calibers. Within a couple of years, it was back to normal.

Then late in Barry's run, the government started buying up all the available stock, so the prices skyrocketed again. A couple of years later, Federal and Remington stuff was selling for $10 a box with a rebate!

What makes anyone think this particular situation is unique?

If it wasn't for "critical shortages" of just about every raw material it wouldn't be. This is just the very start of "Confidence=$0" (stocks, currencies, derivatives, debt) and "real assets" (gold, silver, copper, brass, lead, meat, auto parts, etc) being worth whatever you can get from the highest bidder. When "fiat currencies" collapse (all at one time) working folks will get screwed again, as usual.
I ain't getting involved in the "ammo nonsense" again.
Everybody thought I was nuts spending almost $1100 for 27 (500 rd) cases of WWB 9mm in 2004. The same folks said I was a "pirate" selling 5 cases of 500 rds to them for $200 each, after begging me to do so.
This last go-around I could have gotten $50/box 50 rds when the local shops were charging $75+. What names would they use today? Joe

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Wisdom chases me; I'm faster

Around here 9mm has been fairly available.
Have bought it at $16-18 a box, Ball.
Now have probably all I need.

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NRA LIFE MEMBER

I'm afraid we may never see $10.00 a box 9mm on a regular basis with inflation and all..............

Meanwhile you may wait forever if you are a mind to...........

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dd884
JMHO-YMMV

I just saw 150 grain Federals at my LGS for $24.95 for a box of 50.They have red colored bullets in a brass shell and the muzzle velocity is 890fps. Best I have seen so far.

Well let's see....Right now they are $20/box for aluminum cases. $21 for brass. It's been two years since the shortage began.
Will it be back to $10 in the next 2 years?
(Personally I doubt it.)

$18 for brass Blazer locally, might get to $14/$15 but not $10.

I would say the days of ordering ammo or components to be shipped to your house without you being licensed are numbered.

I'm over 60 and only shoot about once a month . I have a buttload of .22 and enough 9mm to last MANY years . Maybe the rest of my life ..

Honestly, I haven't purchased 9mm locally for a while. I really didn't get into 9mm until a couple of years ago. 95% of what I've been shooting recently has been handloaded. The only time that I need factory FMJ is for when I compete at the Adaptive Defensive Shooting Summit at the Sig Academy. At present, I am good for 3 years worth of matches. When it gets a little warmer, I'll resume casting, so I can cut dependence on factory bullets.

Unless the break glass to release dinosaur era presents itself, my rifle ammo resources will carry over to my children. At this point in time, I'd rather pay a little more for slightly inflated pistol primers than for factory loaded ammo.

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Judge control not gun control!

Maybe, but I think those numbers are so high none of us will live long enough to see them Times have changed for the better since 1988 when that law expired👍🏼

Buying ammo is a lot like buying on the stock market. When it's high you never think it'll go down and when it's down you think it'll never go back up. Ammo, like stocks, have been up and down ever since Slick Willy took office.

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Live long and prosper

True. I remember seeing guy selling or trying to sell high capacity Glock magazine for over $100 after the 1994 ban. "Better get them while you still can!". I bet a lot of guys cried after building up their "investment".

I voted forever but that isn't exactly the case for me. I squirreled away enough components (at least the ones that are 3X what they were several years ago) to last me to the end of my time, which is forever by my definition.

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That's just somebody talkin.

I doubt we're ever going to see name-brand brass cased range ammo in 9mm at less than $15 a box. I may be wrong, and I hope I am. I am so well stocked right now, I doubt I'll need any more before I croak, but I've bought a couple cases of the recent Norma product at that price just because I can. Time will tell, but some of you may be waiting for Godot.

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FBINA, 204th Session

Silly question as it's not going to get back there, ever.

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Psalm 27:2

I'm a reloader myself and I appreciate the cost savings compared to shooting factory ammo. But there are certain situations where reloaded ammunition will not do. For example, when I take someone shooting for training or recreation using my guns or theirs, I always use my factory ammunition. While I've never had a problem with my own reloads, neither will my students or fellow shooters under my watch. And as far as training for CCW carry, I always use factory ammunition and the exact round I will carry in my guns. You can cut costs using reloads to train, but I don't cut those corners.

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FBINA, 204th Session

I’m still loading 100 rounds for about $13, but I’m down to about 3000 primed brass and maybe 2000 primers. Truth be told, I don’t load that often so I’m good for several years. Prices will never be $10 a box again. The manufacturers have seen what people are willing to pay. Look at this thread. “If I see $15 a box I’m scarfing them up”. Why would they charge less?

I just want primers to come back. I’m fully aware that the $35 brick will likely cost $55, but it’s still cheaper than factory.