Took a quick run out to a local gun store yesterday. The shelves were really packed and not many people buying. No restrictions on anything, but still 2x pre pandemic pricing. They were running "sales" on some items which were still overpriced.

Reloading supplies were slim, they had Hornady XTP bullets in .38, 55 grain .22 for 223 and .45. A few pounds of Accurate powder, and 0 primers.

Feels like supply is starting to catch up. If prices are going to come down, they should start to do so soon. I can't imagine supply issues continuing with what I am seeing available on-line and locally, unless we have additional shutdowns.

Just my .02.

Within the current inflationary period we are experiencing, I believe the best that can be hoped for is that prices may stabilize at a higher level. I do not expect to see any significant price declines soon. I hope I am wrong.

I have observed that stores and restaurants, at least locally, seem to be drawing noticeably fewer customers over the last few weeks. Of course there may well be several good reasons for that, but I believe that one of them is that many consumers are finding prices have gone too high and are reducing or deferring spending for discretionary and non-essential items. That is how economics is supposed to work.

If you don't really need it, just don't buy it.
Make them sit on it.
They'll either have to lower prices or eat it!

As the LGS tradition, with long term employees and independent owners, disappear in favor of the big chains, complete with a high turnover of apathetic staff, we have to realize that these places aren't our friends. They're in it for short term gain.

Only four domestic manufacturers produce primers: Federal, CCI, Remington and Winchester. The first three of those companies are owned by Vista Outdoors, so free-market forces are a bit tilted in their favor for the foreseeable future.

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Slava Ukraini!

I’m seeing some 9mm ball for 15.99/50. We may not get back to 7.99, but barring some unforseen event I bet we get close. The market will work it out.

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“What you got, ain’t new.”

I agree. They'll keep the prices inflated as long as people are dumb enough to pay it. I watched one local guy get a couple boxes of ammo out of the back to restock a couple boxes he'd just sold. He keeps in in the back to keep the idea that it's so difficult to find and you're lucky to find those two boxes sitting on his shelf.

I wonder if the primer output isn’t largely consumed by increased cartridge manufacturing.

Yeah, I'd guess there is more retail value added to a primer when it is assembled into an assembled cartridge, than when it is sold loose to DIYers.

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Slava Ukraini!

If you don't really need it, just don't buy it.
Make them sit on it.
They'll either have to lower prices or eat it!
+1 to 6string,,,,

In my neck of the woods I'm noticing alot of sales being offered to lure the person into the shop,,,, Give it time and you'll start seeing price reductions just as in the last shortage, dealers will have to reduce to get cash flow going again.

I wonder if the supply of primers isn't simply being withheld to make people be more dependent on factory ammo.
As mentioned above, and as I've been posting here for years, Vista Outdoor owns a lot of companies that used to be free market competitors.
Go look up the history of their stock price over the past few years. The value fluctuates wildly from under $10 a share to close to $60. Their stock name is VSTO on the New York Stock Exchange. You can't help but notice the uncanny parallel that bad times for shooters equals good times for Vista Outdoors, and vice versa.

Ammo is made of a bunch of precious metals. Inflation is everywhere.

To those who say it's going to go back to, or near old prices, well I hope you're right. Soon gas will be $.49 a gallon and movies $.99.

I've in the past seen folks with bare foot kids buy 50$ in lottery tickets.

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"Don't Give Up the Ship"

I am a little surprised by the pricing and scarcity situation on primers. There are numerous manufacturers of primers throughout Europe (especially in eastern Europe) who could be exporting them to the USA, also there are the Canadians, Brazilians, and Mexicans. I don't know if the Russians are locked out of the US market on primers or not. Maybe all those foreign primer manufacturers are using all the primers they can make themselves for their own ammunition production.

I can go for a ride and in an hour go from one shop that has 9mm ball for less than $20 a box to another that has the same 9mm ball for $45. At the moment it pays to be a careful shopper.

This past weekend I saw small pistol primers on the shelf at a shop, which is the first I’ve seen them on the shelf since spring of 2020. The price was $10 per 100, but at least they were there if you really needed them.

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Wheel guns are real guns.

With the multitudes of new people buying firearms, I don’t think they realize how expensive ammo has become. They just accept it and buy it. Once all these folks toss the new gun in the sock drawer and never buy anything again the prices will start to recede.

Eh, same with energy companies. Same with banks.

I don’t buy into this conspiracy theory.

I work a gun counter at a Bass Pro Shop on Sunday mornings. It’s clear US ammo companies are rotating the ammo they’re producing. Now that production is much stronger than it was and The Remington plant is back in business, we’re seeing a glut of 9mm, followed by a glut of 40S&W, then a glut of 45acp. Some 38spl here and there, likewise 380… Then repeat.

For shotshells, it’s similar. Pallets of 12ga target ammo, then pallets of 20ga target ammo, then lots Turkey ammo, then waterfowl ammo… rinse and repeat.

For rifles. It’s a glut of FMj 5.56, then 7.62x51, a smattering of hunting ammo then a glut of 7.62x39. Rinse and repeat.

We see primers about as often as 380 ammo. Same with powder. Same with brass.

I will say it’s astonishing how much ammo is still being bought. Prices are down some, pretty much across the board. But I don’t think they’ll return to pre COVID/riots prices.

I was at an LGS today. Prices were high, $28 for a box of 9mm. There was a lot of rifle ammo but not so much pistol ammo. More 9 and forty, no .38s or .357. Then on my way out(empty handed)I was surprised to see a pallet full of cases of 7.62x39. It was Tula, must have been at least 100 cases. Did not notice the price. All in all a lot more ammo available than a year ago, but not like it should be. Have not seen but one box of 30.06 since the madness started.

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No baby we aint

I went to the local FFL to start the transfer on the one I bought across the state line last week. They had a few pounds of powder - for $50-$60 a pound. A few bullets on the shelf in the 25-30 cents apiece range. Had a bag with 50-100 Berrys plated 115gr 9mm bullets - and he wanted $20 for the bag. 20 cents each for plated 9mms? I don't THINK so!

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Send lawyers, guns & money...

FWIW, I recently bought 1,000 Berry’s plated 38 HBWC from their site. ~$145.

What I’m not seeing as often now as I was six months or a year ago is the Cabelas/Bass Pro house brand Herter’s ammo (loaded by Winchester) for sale in local gun stores at 2-3 times the Cabelas/Bass pro price.

Higher prices are here to stay due to inflation, less purchasing power of the dollar, and the changes in consumer habits. There has been a huge amount of new cuustomersand to them, these prices are the norm.

Plus the change in the retail landscape due to higher labor costs since people are realizing they hold power to and it isn't just the employers that can decide everything.

I have a pretty impressive collection (by my own standards) and it was possible because I bought cheap and stacked deep. But I also understand that retail is retail and they need to pay to keep the lights on and pay their storefront's lease.

If our laws didn't require FFLs and allowed direct mail order. A LOT OF FFLs WOULD BE OUT OF BUSINESS.

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GOA FL Dir. & Nat. Spokesman

Most of the small and even medium sized shops around me are stocking up, but same story as you... Prices are still way up.

I hate to admit it, but I buy as much of my 22 and shotgun shells as I can from Walmart and Cabelas. Every once in a while Cabelas has like .38 special for like $24 a box of 50 or some decent 9mm for like $17 a box of 50 - but they usually don't have a lot... they have a ton of .223 and 5.56 but no one is buying it because it is is still $14 for 20 rounds and bulk packs are 40 cents a round and up. Supply is getting a little better though.

There are a couple high volume shops in my area (within an hour) that have the best local prices on ammo, I try to stop in once in a while, but most of my buying has been from Target Sports USA - Free Shipping On Bulk Ammo & All Firearms when I can't find it anywhere else.

Even 14.5 cents apiece looks like highway robbery to me. I have tens of thousands of 9mm/38/357 projectiles I bought for 5-10 cents each as recently as 2-3 years ago. Xtreme was selling them by the thousand for 50-60 bucks.
I know all about 7% inflation over the last year, but a 200%-400% increase in 3 years is more than I'm willing to stomach.
Prices will likely never get back down to what they were, but I'll wait until they get back down to something more like inflation adjusted prices instead of panic-induced shortage prices.
That would be more like 5.5-11 cents apiece at 7% inflation. When production catches up (assuming it ever does) those are the kinds of prices I expect we'll see.

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Send lawyers, guns & money...

I am not so naive that I think we will see the same prices as before, but I do fully expect prices to come down and I plan to wait it out as well.

To those who think this is the new normal just consider the lumber market and how it has fluctuated based on production capacity and demand. The same thing applies here. Only time will tell, and I hope I am right for all of our sake.

Our LGS resembles the title of this thread. But for the next week they are closed due to the lack of staff. They all have either Covid or the Flu....

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USMC 69-93 Combat Pistol Inst.

People keep complaining about prices but some keep buying. One economics view is that something is worth what it sells (exchanges hands) for. So, if you actually buy "over priced" ammo, or anything else, you must have deemed it to be worth what you paid for it. Why complain?

Fair point. I agree and am not buying. The free market is definitely in play here and will work itself out.

I think that’s wishful thinking. Producer Price Index was up 9.7% in 2021, the highest recorded (since the current index calculation began.) I think ammo prices track better with PPI than CPI, which is “watered down” with some necessities underweighted or not counted, like fuel.

I also suspect that the plaited bullets have always been a bit more than typical cast or swaged bullets, but don’t recall since my bullet buying has been limited in caliber and type.

But I hope you’re right and prices continue to drop.

This is true IMO too. Sometimes we are our own worse enemy. People will pay prices they know are too high and then they buy anything and everything they see on the shelf exacerbating the problem.

Of course if you have no ammo left at all you will have to make the choice of paying highly inflated prices or not shoot at all. Everyone has to make that decision for themselves and we have no right to judge their choice. That said, if you see only a few boxes on the shelf don't clean them out, buy what you need and leave some for the next person. (all IMO of course)

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Freedom is never free!!
SWCA #3437

Some of the folks want to shoot no matter what the price. For some of the folks just getting into shooting these prices may seem normal to them. I hope these folks can figure out they are part of the cause the prices are so high by their willingness to pay the high prices. Inflation has something to do with it and the lack of raw materials may also have a bearing on the costs. Guess we just have to ride it out.

For me, I have not bought any ammo in two years. Between the factory .22 ammo and the fact that I reload for every centerfire hand gun I own has saved me from the high prices. My purchasing firearms has slowed down too.

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USMC 69-93 Combat Pistol Inst.

Yeah, restaurant prices have escalated rapidly.
Lack of product.
Lack of workers.
Labor costs have skyrocketed to attract and keep the few that apply.

Higher inflation is here for quite awhile. How does a business go backwards from paying double+ with benefits as many have been forced to do?
I know people think higher wages are great for the “downtrodden” workers but has it really improved their lives when costs are outstripping those increase in wages?

As far as shooting, I have to eat, I don’t have to shoot.

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Sure you did

Quality guns are not going to go down. They never have and never will. Used smith and Wesson’s sell for more than they did when new. This is a good thing cause when gun prices start going down it’ll be time to load them all cause something strange is coming.

I realize that the 2012 ammo shortage was under different circumstances than now, but does anyone know how long that shortage lasted and what trends took place near the end, eg certain calibers becoming more available and/or cheaper first?

I went to my local LGS to view the carnage that is their ammo display.
$65 boxes of 110gr 357, $19 for 50 rounds of Stinger 22 rimfire and so on.
I did see something that interested me for a second, S&B 300blk in 200gr subsonic.
It was my most fired round right behind 22 rimfire.
$25 for a 20 round box. I didn't bite.

I'm gettin' kinda old these days.
I bought all that ammo back in the day for a reason.
I may shoot up my stash of ammo and then buy a bass boat.

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SWCA #2420

I am seeing the same around here at stores. I also see it happening online. Manufacturers only run certain calibers for X period of time. Then change tooling and run another caliber.
And so it goes as it has been always.


Now, I have seen various ammo shortages for what ever reason for the last 60 years. I have not seen prices completely return to any pre-shortage prices. Nor will they IMO this time either.



Material cost, labor costs, and inflation alone will keep prices higher than they were in 2019. And don't forget about World Conflict situations.I think what I am seeing happen now is this for 9mm. US made brass 9mm will most likely bottom out at about $.30 per round. ($15 per box) for 115gr FMJ.

Perhaps down to $.28 per round.



Now, this Ukraine situation may well have our companies
go full bore again on Military Orders. For us and so called Allies. In turn, making ammo less available to us and raise prices again. Just beware!!



I have been pretty accurate on this situation before. That is why I no longer need to purchase any 9mm for what years I may have left.

I can't remember how long it lasted. However, near the end a certain caliber came back first. Then another one and so on. One caliber at a time. Just as we are seeing again today.