well, numbers don't make much sense when trying to get an idea of what its going to feel like.
For me, I could shoot a 27-2 all day with heavy loads and no gloves. With a short barreled 29 and some heavy loads I think half a box would be enough for me.
I agree with the first thing you said, and assuming that is true in all cases, it will come as no surprise that my personal experience is the opposite.
Here's my take, and I've owned and shot both (though not truly snubbies, they were nearly-identical models in the two different calibers):
The 357 has a sharper straight-back thrust into my hand that happens to hit me right at the base-center of my palm, and I find this uncomfortable. Because of this, I found I HAD to switch to rubber grips which covered the backstrap, and then I'm fine shooting the 357.
The 44 Mag has heavier recoil overall, but I found it to be more of a "rolling" recoil that did not come so fast as the 357. I kept the wood grips on my 44. (Not factory, but broad, smooth Roper-style grips.)
You see, in addition to the weight of the gun and the thrust of the caliber, there are several other factors, including: Grips, stance/position, sensitivity of the nerves to muzzle blast (guns that crack rather than boom feel like they recoil more to me - I can shoot a 458 Win Mag fine for awhile, but a 7mm Rem Mag, and I'm only good for a few shots - other people feel differently as this makes no difference to them), and probably other factors exist too.
The bottom line is that enough of the factors are subjective, that you'll have to try it for yourself to see how you feel about it.
