CharlieP said:

quote:

It goes about like this for me:
Odds of ever having to draw the gun - 1/200
Odds of having to fire it after drawing - 1/3
Odds of an ILIF failure when fired - 1/1,000,000

You need to re-compute, my friend:
Odds of having to get physical with an assailant in any situation that would justify your shooting him: 1/2
Odds of your IL failing due to impact in such a struggle: 1/5?

quote:

Originally posted by Erich:
CharlieP said:

quote:

It goes about like this for me:
Odds of ever having to draw the gun - 1/200
Odds of having to fire it after drawing - 1/3
Odds of an ILIF failure when fired - 1/1,000,000

You need to re-compute, my friend:
Odds of having to get physical with an assailant in any situation that would justify your shooting him: 1/2
Odds of your IL failing due to impact in such a struggle: 1/5?

If we're going to be playing odds, why not just play these odds:

No lock mechanism = ZERO odds of having a lock-related jam/problem. Another side benefit... you never have to even WONDER if a lock might jam your gun. Just look for and buy S&W's without locks... there are plenty of awesome and quite suitable examples of them out there. You just have to work a little harder to find them.

quote:

Originally posted by Erich:
You need to re-compute, my friend:
Odds of having to get physical with an assailant in any situation that would justify your shooting him: 1/2
Odds of your IL failing due to impact in such a struggle: 1/5?

Hmmm. FYI, I am a mathematician by education and trade. Are you saying the probability of an ILIF is 1/5?

quote:

Originally posted by CharlieP:

quote:

Originally posted by Erich:
You need to re-compute, my friend:
Odds of having to get physical with an assailant in any situation that would justify your shooting him: 1/2
Odds of your IL failing due to impact in such a struggle: 1/5?

Hmmm. FYI, I am a mathematician by education and trade. Are you saying the probability of an ILIF is 1/5?

Well, Mr mathematician compute this --- No IL and the odds of an IL Failure to Fire = 0000000000000000000.

Charlie, what I'm doing is pointing out the flaws in your argument. I am a lawyer by trade.

Erich; Shame, Shame on you for pointing out the Facts!!!

quote:

Originally posted by Erich:
Charlie, what I'm doing is pointing out the flaws in your argument. I am a lawyer by trade.

Then present your evidence that the probability of my 642 having an ILIF is 1/5 per each defensive use of the weapon. Your testimony will be subject to cross-examination.

The question mark in my post at the top of page 20 was to signify that I don't know (and neither do you): it was a guess. Totally pulled out of my rear. The difference between my guess (which I at least have admitted was a guess from the start, whereas you appear to feel compelled to argue that your guess is a fact) is that I've actually done force-on-force training so I have an idea of the forces to which a weapon is likely to be subjected in a defensive situation, and I've actually had a lock-failure caused by such an impact.

That's my whole point, Charlie: your purported statistics are just nonsense. My post at the top of page 20 was trying to point this out in a kind and humorous way, but since you evidently feel the need to argue that you were right because you studied math, please forgive me for being direct here.

The study of mathematics does not imbue any sort of knowledge of odds of one being in a position in which he might have to draw a gun in self defense (I've had to do so more than once, BTW), or fire it, or of this particular ill-designed mechanical device failing. Of course, you, being "a mathematician by education and trade," already know that.

Your initial post on this subject with your bogus statistics doesn't bother me: that's just you voicing your opinion. What troubles me is your strange attitude that you now need to argue when they're pointed out to be bogus. And your argument doesn't point to anything tending to establish your assertions as accurate, but rather that you somehow have been "annointed" as correct because you do maths.

Anyhow, I would invite you to email me if you'd like to continue the conversation so as not to clutter up this originally useful thread with any more nonsense. I suspect everyone reading this pretty much gets where I'm coming from, though.

DHart and woodsltc's statistics appear to be demonstrably correct, by the way.

By the way, I'd like to (again) thank DHart for his signature line. It just helped me to be a better Christian, so thanks, amigo.

Erich... glad you like the sig line. Obviously it's a quotation I feel has some significance... something we all can benefit from.

I guess I also don't understand why you would want to even have to think about an accidental lock up. I really love my 640; its solid feel and relatively good accuracy with 38+P ammo gives me a great feeling of security now that I have had the internal lock REMOVED. Maybe $60 was a lot to pay a gunsmith to do it, but it sure makes me feel better.

quote:

Originally posted by Erich:
The question mark in my post at the top of page 20 was to signify that I don't know (and neither do you): it was a guess. Totally pulled out of my rear. The difference between my guess (which I at least have admitted was a guess from the start, whereas you appear to feel compelled to argue that your guess is a fact) ...

So you have no evidence, except one incident where a different model revolver locked as a result of being knocked off a table. I have not argued "my guess is a fact" - in fact it was prefixed by the words "it goes about like this for me".

On the other hand, you replied authoritatively "You need to recompute"

My estimates are certainly SWAG's, but the scientific part is that there are hundreds of people who fire 642's every day and put millions of rounds through these guns every year, and clear-cut incidences of ILIF are very rare, possibly 1/1,000,000 or greater. On the other hand, if it is 1/5 I should have had about 40 ILIF's my-self already. And if you take the position that a blow to the gun is more likely to cause a failure, I assure you that at my age I do not intend to hit an assailant with the gun or throw it at him - I intend to shoot him. That's why I bought a gun. If I want to hit him I will buy a baseball bat - they don't put locks on those - yet.

Good luck with that plan, Charlie. Apparently you've not been in a fight. Here's praying that you never will be. Or me either. Or any of us!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Erich,

Chances are you're right Charlie but you never know....?

What about JB Welding the locking mechanism in the off position? I expect with JB Weld, it will cease to be a problem and simply become part of the frame of the revolver.

I own a total of seven revolvers: two Colt and five S&W. As an ex-LEO who has had to depend upon a gun to save his life, NONE have an IL and NONE ever will. Why take the chance if you don't have to?

Primer failure, you say? Well, just pull the trigger again and the revolver will still go bang, if it's not your last round. If it is, then you can open the cylinder and reload. Tough to do if the IL has locked up the gun.

The whole concept of the IL is simply caving in to folks who hate guns and think that they're evil. Why bother to even try and placate them? You can't.

I'll never buy a new S&W until the lock is gone.