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  #1  
Old 09-05-2018, 09:50 AM
glenncal1 glenncal1 is offline
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Well I sent my CMP 1911 application today, wonder what the odds are going to end up to get a gun this year.
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Old 09-05-2018, 10:14 AM
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Probably doubtful. With multiple checks, and numerous applications to sort through, I don't think they will get in any rush.

Way back I had to wait 14 months to buy a Garand. That's back when there was a limit of 8000 per year to be released. Just missed the one year's quota.
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Old 09-05-2018, 10:35 AM
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I agree with H Richard. A factor that some seem to overlook is that CMP has very few employees, and relies heavily on volunteers, so the various processes (inspection, grading, and sorting through whatever the military depots decide to send) eat up a lot of time.

Good luck!
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:48 AM
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I have completed my application today, and will be sending it out as soon as I get finished here at work. Good luck to anyone who is in the "lottery".

Best Regards, Les
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Old 09-10-2018, 03:37 PM
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Just back from the Post Office. All in all, I did not find the application to join the 1911 Lottery much more difficult to fill out than a typical Federal Income Tax return!! lol

Seriously, the form wasn't all that difficult, and there was a PDF form available which could be filled out on the computer and then printed.

For those who have not done so, you then need to have page 2, IIRC notarized, which for me just meant walking across the hall at work, and then you needed to attach copies of various documents to demonstrate citizenship and age, as well as participation in approvpved clubs and shooting activities, and a copy of your dealers FFL

Mine ran to a total of seven pages, I think. Probably next week I'll remember something I forgot to include!!

So now we wait until after the deadline of October 4th, 2018, when they are supposed to dump all of the applicants (who did everything correctly) into a random number generator, and build a list which they will go down in numerical order contacting them to see who wants whatever they still have when they call.

Complicated, and only 8,000 guns, and some of those are going to be auctioned, so not a lot of chances of getting a shot at a nice 1911.

But.... If you don't participate, you have no chance. So I feel pretty good about throwing my hat in the ring, and guess that I have as good a chance as anyone.

And sure, if you are just looking for a shooter, why bother. But for many of us, it is certainly much more than just getting an"shooter".

Best Regards, Les
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Old 09-10-2018, 04:14 PM
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Sent mine in too. Good luck to all!
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Old 09-10-2018, 05:14 PM
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Sent mine in last Tuesday. I purchased four Garands from them last year and I didn’t think the requirements for the 1911 order packet was that onerous. Better than the alternative that a lot of government officials wanted these 1911’s destroyed.
Good luck to all who enter.
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Old 09-10-2018, 05:54 PM
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Mine goes in tomorrow. Can’t wait to get one (if so fortunate) of those overpriced, rattletrap, hunks of junk.


^^^^^ preemptive rant

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Old 09-10-2018, 06:26 PM
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Wonder if the USGI 1911 market will dip, with the influx of the CMP pistols ?
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Old 09-10-2018, 06:41 PM
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Wonder if the USGI 1911 market will dip, with the influx of the CMP pistols ?
Most of the CMP 1911s are trash guns so I doubt it will change much. I think it's outrageous to charge $850 for an non firing Frankengun just because it has US Military stamped on it.
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Old 09-10-2018, 07:01 PM
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I thought about putting in an application for the past 2 months but couldn't bring myself to do it. No objections to the CMP pistols I've seen or the price, but not excited enough about getting one.
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Old 09-10-2018, 07:03 PM
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I too put in for one.

Yes you have to get it notarized, something I almost realized too late. Had it in the envelope and ready to go when I read the fine print online...

With only 8,000 guns and what could be 100,000 or more entries I don't have my hopes up. I figure if I don't like what I get, there will be someone to take it off my hands for what I have into it, maybe more.
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:22 PM
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My package is sitting here, waiting to hear back from the Garand Collectors Association. Paid for my membership in June, and never heard a thing. They've also ignored all emails.

I'll give it another day, then join some other qualifying organization.

After all the grousing and sour grapes I've read on the internet, I figured I'd be the only one putting in! Guess not.
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:37 PM
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I sent mine in on the 5th. I NEVER win anything in drawings but hope springs eternal. Maybe this time!
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:38 PM
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Sig.... you should be good with your retired LEO...Probably don’t need the Garand Collectors membership... just a copy of your retired credentials should do also for the shooting part ...


“2. Membership in CMP Affiliated Organization: You must provide a copy of your current membership card or other proof of membership. This requirement cannot be waived. The CMP currently has over 2,000 affiliated organizations located in many parts of the country. Membership in many of these organizations costs $25.00 or less and can be accomplished online. A listing of affiliated organizations can be found by clicking on our “CLUBS” tab on our web site at Civilian Marksmanship Program |.
In addition to shooting clubs, the CMP also has several special affiliates. Membership in these organizations satisfies our requirement for purchase. These special affiliates include:
• Congressionally chartered veterans’ organizations such as the VFW, AL, DAV, MCL, etc.
• U.S. Military services (active or reserves), National Guard, to include retirees. Copy of ID required.
Law Enforcement departments and agencies and Law Enforcement organizations and associations (to include LEO retirees). Copy of ID required.
3. Marksmanship or other Firearms Related Activity:
You must provide proof of participation in a marksmanship related activity or otherwise show familiarity with the safe handling of firearms and range procedures. Your marksmanship related activity can be with rifles, pistols, air guns or shotguns. Proof
CMP 1911 www.CMP1911.TheCMP.org
of marksmanship participation can be provided by documenting any of the following:
• Current or past military or law enforcement service.
• Participation in a rifle, pistol, air gun or shotgun
competition (provide copy of results bulletin).
• Completion of a marksmanship clinic that included live fire training (provide a copy of the certificate of completion or a statement from the instructor).
• Distinguished, Instructor, or Coach status.
• Concealed Carry License.
• Firearms Owner Identification Card that includes live
fire training.
• FFL or C&R license.
• Completion of a Hunter Safety Course that included
live fire training.
• Certification from range or club official or law
enforcement officer witnessing shooting activity. A form for use in completing and certifying your range firing can be downloaded from the CMP web site at Error 404 Not Found | Civilian Marksmanship Program. pdf.
• No proof of marksmanship required if over age 60. Proof of club membership and citizenship required for all ages.”

I used that plus my American Legion membership.

Best Regards, Les
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:43 PM
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I'll get one but 2nd hand. When I was into M1 Garands I purchased many CMP M1's 2nd hand on the CMP for sale forum. The .45's will end up there 2 and one will be able to see what you are getting. Sure, the certificate won't be in your name but hey I'd rather know I'll be happy getting what I wanted. You used to be able to have an agent select a M1 in person at the CMP store and they run your card and process your purchase package and ship to you but alas they put an end to people acting as agents. Shame too as I couldn't make it to the South Store but had someone select several original WW2 S/A and Winchester M1's and an M1D for me. I just can't risk the lottery. Did that once and got something I ended up hating.
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by les.b View Post
Just back from the Post Office. All in all, I did not find the application to join the 1911 Lottery much more difficult to fill out than a typical Federal Income Tax return!! lol

Seriously, the form wasn't all that difficult, and there was a PDF form available which could be filled out on the computer and then printed.

For those who have not done so, you then need to have page 2, IIRC notarized, which for me just meant walking across the hall at work, and then you needed to attach copies of various documents to demonstrate citizenship and age, as well as participation in approvpved clubs and shooting activities, and a copy of your dealers FFL

Mine ran to a total of seven pages, I think. Probably next week I'll remember something I forgot to include!!

So now we wait until after the deadline of October 4th, 2018, when they are supposed to dump all of the applicants (who did everything correctly) into a random number generator, and build a list which they will go down in numerical order contacting them to see who wants whatever they still have when they call.

Complicated, and only 8,000 guns, and some of those are going to be auctioned, so not a lot of chances of getting a shot at a nice 1911.

But.... If you don't participate, you have no chance. So I feel pretty good about throwing my hat in the ring, and guess that I have as good a chance as anyone.

And sure, if you are just looking for a shooter, why bother. But for many of us, it is certainly much more than just getting an"shooter".

Best Regards, Les
TO BE HONEST Les, IMHO THE CHANCES THAT ANYTHING BETTER THAN A "SHOOTER" GRADE PISTOL WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS LOTTERY, ARE SLIM TO NONE......

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THOSE OF YOU THAT FEEL THAT, "it is certainly much more than just getting a shooter" ? ? ?

PERHAPS, ITS JUST THE EXCITEMENT OF PARTICIPATING IN THIS HISTORIC EVENT......

I PURCHASED A GARAND IN THE MID 1980s FROM THE CMP. IIRC IT WAS OVER A YEAR LONG PROCESS, THAT REWARDED ME WITH A NICE SPRINGFIELD ARMORY WEAPON, WITH AN ORIGINAL SA BARREL IN GREAT CONDITION, MOSTLY SA PARTS, AND AN ORIGINAL SA STOCK, WITH VISIBLE CARTOUCHES. THAT WAS QUITE A DEAL FOR $165. IT CLEANED UP VERY NICELY, AND WAS A GREAT SHOOTER.......

I DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE MANY EXPERIENCES LIKE MY GARAND STORY, EMANATING FROM THIS 1911 EVENT. PERHAPS I AM BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC---TIME WILL TELL....

BEST WISHES, AND GOOD LUCK TO ALL PARTICIPANTS......
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:34 PM
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Joe, thanks for your post. You are right about one thing. This was and continues to be a historic event. Many people in high places wanted to see all former military firearms destroyed. Just having these historic guns available to be sold to ordinary folks like you and me is a political victory of great significance. I don't think that most of us think that if we are chosen to buy one of these guns that we are going to get a pristine collector's item that we can flip and double our money on. Nor do most of us think we may score a tack driving competition gun that we can start winning bullseye matches with. Rather, I think that if I were to buy one of these guns that I would be buying a slice of American history.

And remember, just mailing in the application doesn't obligate us to actually buy the gun that we may or may not one day be offered. But the way that I understand this particular lottery to work is that those folks who enter this year and who are not chosen this year will automatically be moved to the top of next years lottery (if there is a next year lottery). So it seems prudent to enter this years group or risk not even being in the running next year, or way down the list anyway.

Best Regards, Les
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:41 PM
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Got my one and only Garand from the DCM, predecessor to the CMP!$165 delivered. 16 month’s and one per lifetime. In the 1911 drawing. If you don’t get in now, you probably never will, as your random number carries over in sequence until your number comes up or they ultimately run out of pistols.
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:56 PM
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Thanks, Les! I'll be dropping my package in the mail tomorrow then.

I'm with you - this is a chance to get a real piece of history straight from the U.S. military. I don't expect anything other than a representative 1911A1 that would come through the armory window and go into the holster of a GI.

I have never gotten a lemon from the CMP - multiple Garands, a Remington 40X, and a 1903A3. All were better than I expected. If the 1911A1 lets me down I'll still be ahead of the game. (And I bet it will always be worth more than I pay!)

So - Good luck to all! I can't wait to see the pictures when these old soldiers start hitting our FFLs.



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Old 09-11-2018, 01:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by les.b View Post
Joe, thanks for your post. You are right about one thing. This was and continues to be a historic event. Many people in high places wanted to see all former military firearms destroyed. Just having these historic guns available to be sold to ordinary folks like you and me is a political victory of great significance. I don't think that most of us think that if we are chosen to buy one of these guns that we are going to get a pristine collector's item that we can flip and double our money on. Nor do most of us think we may score a tack driving competition gun that we can start winning bullseye matches with. Rather, I think that if I were to buy one of these guns that I would be buying a slice of American history.

And remember, just mailing in the application doesn't obligate us to actually buy the gun that we may or may not one day be offered. But the way that I understand this particular lottery to work is that those folks who enter this year and who are not chosen this year will automatically be moved to the top of next years lottery (if there is a next year lottery). So it seems prudent to enter this years group or risk not even being in the running next year, or way down the list anyway.

Best Regards, Les
HI Les, THANK YOU SOOO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME TO EXPLAIN THIS TO ME. I WHOLEHEARTEDLY AGREE THAT IT IS A HISTORIC EVENT, AND A GREAT MORAL VICTORY. ITS VERY WORTHWHILE, IN THAT RESPECT, TO TAKE PART IN IT...

THIS OL' SOLDIER WAS NOT THINKING LONG TERM. AT MY AGE, AND ENGAGED IN MY BATTLE AGAINST THE RAVAGES OF MY EXPOSURE TO AGENT ORANGE---I TAKE ONE DAY AT A TIME, AND I DON'T BUY BUNCHES OF GREEN BANANAS.....

I HOPE THAT YOU HAVE A WINNING NUMBER FOR A DECENT SPECIMEN...
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Old 09-11-2018, 01:50 PM
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Papers in the mail. I hope I dotted and crossed everything.
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:47 PM
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My packet went in the mail last Friday. Good Luck Everyone!

Of course I don't think I'll be lucky, but for many good reasons I am excited to give it a try. The CMP has yet to disappoint me with either their matches or sales.

I don't speak Southeren, so yes, I had to read the instructions more than once. I checked, checked and re-checked my packet. I went to my favorite Post Office and confidantily sent it on its way. I then immediatly began to question the correctness of my application.
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Old 09-11-2018, 03:34 PM
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I originally thought to let this year pass and wait to see what people were actually getting. Now that I know that this years list will be rolled over into next year and presumably following years as well, I decided it would be best to go ahead and get my name on the list. It is possible that this years applicants could be enough to completely fill out sales for years to come.
Who knows, I might get lucky or maybe 2 or 3 years down the road they might contact me. Never can tell.
However, I think I'll hold out for a Service Grade pistol. If offered a Field Grade or Rack Grade, I'll likely pass. But that does raise the question that if you turn down what is offered, does your name stay on the list?
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Old 09-11-2018, 04:43 PM
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I originally thought to let this year pass and wait to see what people were actually getting. Now that I know that this years list will be rolled over into next year and presumably following years as well, I decided it would be best to go ahead and get my name on the list. It is possible that this years applicants could be enough to completely fill out sales for years to come.
Who knows, I might get lucky or maybe 2 or 3 years down the road they might contact me. Never can tell.
However, I think I'll hold out for a Service Grade pistol. If offered a Field Grade or Rack Grade, I'll likely pass. But that does raise the question that if you turn down what is offered, does your name stay on the list?
I too will probably pass on a Rack grade, and I love to tinker with guns. It's just too much $ for a beater/project gun.
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Old 09-13-2018, 05:19 PM
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I stopped by my hole-in-the-wall shop to get a copy of their FFL for my package. “Wow, another one!” said the nice lady.

Next stop was the post office in my little town. “You’re gonna get one of those pistols?” says the nice man. He had seen enough application packages to recognize the address!

I hope CMP gives us an idea of how many of these hopeful packages come in. I’m glad they are rolling the numbers over to subsequent drawings. I think anyone who doesn’t get a number this year will be SOL.
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Old 09-13-2018, 07:08 PM
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Thanks, Les! I'll be dropping my package in the mail tomorrow then.

I'm with you - this is a chance to get a real piece of history straight from the U.S. military. I don't expect anything other than a representative 1911A1 that would come through the armory window and go into the holster of a GI.

I have never gotten a lemon from the CMP - multiple Garands, a Remington 40X, and a 1903A3. All were better than I expected. If the 1911A1 lets me down I'll still be ahead of the game. (And I bet it will always be worth more than I pay!)

So - Good luck to all! I can't wait to see the pictures when these old soldiers start hitting our FFLs.



They are shooting with the wrong hand.
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Old 09-17-2018, 10:45 AM
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CMP operates a site much like this, where CMP officials answer questions regarding this process. Things I have learned:

Despite very clear instructions to not send in applications early, 500 early packages were sent to the round file.

Lotto numbers are assigned to the unopened envelopes. The first several hundred of the lucky numbers will be opened, confirmed, and the senders notified. You won’t know your number until it comes up in the batch to be notified, when your envelope is opened and confirmed to be correct.

If you put two applications (or more) in the same envelope they will all be tossed in the trash when the envelope is opened to be confirmed. The lotto number is already assigned and the CMP isn’t going to try to decide which applicant in the envelope gets it, so nobody does and its on to the next envelope.

If you sent in more than one envelope containing the same information, they both get tossed.

If you sent your package registered mail and required a signature (which means someone from CMP has to go to the Post Office) your package will never be signed for.

One guy sent his package Postage Due. No 1911 for him.

This may be the one and only window for these. Once the numbers are assigned there won’t be another opening for new submissions until all the packages from this year are exhausted, if the guns last that long.

CMP expects about 75,000 packages.
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Old 09-17-2018, 10:57 AM
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Thanks for the update.... I probably screwed up, then, cause i send almost everything registered mail. I will have to check and see, I put everything in a folder, including copies of everything. That's just how I normally do stuff. I had not checked to see if the package had been delivered!! They should have included that in the instructions, if they didn't want us to send registered. Oh, well.... c'est la vie

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Old 09-17-2018, 11:09 AM
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I think I did everything right. Or at least I hope so.
From the sound of it, I imagine that the garbage cans at CMP will be quite full for the next month or so.
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Old 09-17-2018, 11:12 AM
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Well, I just checked USPS tracking, and they say that my package was delivered on September 13, at 12:39 PM. So I guess I’m ok after all.

Best Regards, Les
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Old 09-17-2018, 11:44 AM
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Default Why I did not apply

Hello Forum;

First I wish everyone of you that applied gets your choice of these 1911A1's when the CMP lotto gets moving.

I did not apply simply because I have had the pleasure of owning 3 in the past. The Ithaca still resides with me, the Colt and the Remington Rand have gone on to other owners over the years.

I agree with everyone else. They are history in your hands, fun shooters (especially those of you that have "broadside of a barn" to shoot at), excellent conversation pieces whenever gathering in gun rooms, etc.

I just felt that why be greedy, I just don't need (or want) a potential lotto chance hanging out there at this point in life's game. Besides.......with my luck (or lack thereof), the day after I pass on to some reward, the number would come up and my heirs would not know what to do with it.

Again........Best of Luck be with all of you.
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Old 09-17-2018, 07:34 PM
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Earlier I wondered what would happen if your name was pulled and you turned down what was offered. I e-mailed CMP with the question and today I got an answer.

"If you are contacted and decline what is offered, your name is removed from the list. The only option left is to bid on one of the auction pistols. At this time you would not be allowed to submit another order packet."

Pretty much what I suspected. So its take it or leave it.
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Old 09-17-2018, 07:40 PM
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I decided to pass on the lottery this time. I got my collectible 1911 a ways back when the decom Marine Raider M5A1's were offered. If I can find a service grade later that does not cost a arm and a leg I will grab one.
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Old 09-17-2018, 07:52 PM
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For those who, like myself (I hope) are in the lottery, here is a story, with pictures to help whet your appetites:

American Rifleman | The CMP M1911s: The Inside Story

Here's one of the 1911s that will be sold as "Service Grade"... Rebuilt ar Anniston in 1978:



Best Regards, Les
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Old 09-17-2018, 10:09 PM
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For those who, like myself (I hope) are in the lottery, here is a story, with pictures to help whet your appetites:

Best Regards, Les
Great article. Thanks for posting the link. And just look at all of them! I would take any one of them chosen at random.

It's beyond my understanding why anyone would gripe about this deal. If, indeed, they do go for as little as $850...frankly, that's chickenfeed compared to current market prices. It's obvious to me that some people who talk about what a joke this is know absolutely nothing about the CMP, the pistol itself, and the current 1911A1 market for shooters and collectors. An arsenal reworking of one of these pistols does not lessen its historical value, whether it was in WWI, WWII, Vietnam, or wherever.

It's kinda ironic to me, too, that people who turn their noses up at an arsenal rebuilt 1911A1 will fall all over themselves at the chance to buy a factory refinished/repaired S&W or Colt revolver.

Far as I'm concerned, the CMP could blindfold me and let me reach into this shipping carton and pick one sight unseen. I'd be a happy man.

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Old 09-17-2018, 10:31 PM
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I hope everyone here that applied gets ones, it’s definitely worth the history of it. I chose not to apply since I recently purchased an all original 1943 Ithaca and I’m all good for now. Good luck to all!

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Old 09-18-2018, 09:06 AM
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For those who, like myself (I hope) are in the lottery, here is a story, with pictures to help whet your appetites:

American Rifleman | The CMP M1911s: The Inside Story

Here's one of the 1911s that will be sold as "Service Grade"... Rebuilt ar Anniston in 1978:



Best Regards, Les
Wow, look at that overpriced piece of junk....... no I don’t want one.
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Old 09-18-2018, 05:24 PM
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Anyone know if we’re getting any sort of confirmation that are applications are in and paperwork in order?
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:10 PM
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I sent mine in. No reason not to. I can always say no if I do get picked and if I have regrets after buying one I will easily make my money back, plus probably a profit.

If I do get picked, I will probably sell one of my Garands to pay for it.

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Old 09-18-2018, 07:13 PM
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Anyone know if we’re getting any sort of confirmation that are applications are in and paperwork in order?
No confirmation. They have tens of thousands of applications. I know my stuff was in order and I sent it registered mail to track it. it arrived there.
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:19 PM
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Anyone know if we’re getting any sort of confirmation that are applications are in and paperwork in order?
Nope - the lotto numbers are assigned to the unopened envelope. You won’t hear anything until they get to your number, and if your paperwork isn’t correct you won’t hear anything at all. It just goes in the trash and they open the next number. This is per the CMP Answer Man in their forum.

They recognize it may be years between the package being submitted and being opened, so they will call to update addresses and FFL status, but that’s it. If all the required stuff isn’t in there, its on to the next.
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:15 PM
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DCM ,1962,$21 one per lifetime. About 130,000 were sold till the Vietnam war heated up and sales stopped. Mixmaster right from arsenal. Parts were not sorted by make,a part was a part period.
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:34 PM
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Go to link below, click on link
Read, Take Notes, Read again.


1911 Information - Civilian Marksmanship ProgramCivilian Marksmanship Program
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:43 PM
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Having used these in service, those that are convinced they will be all clapped out rattle traps are simply wrong.
While a pistol issued to a high op tempo unit, mp detail for base security, or the mp or armor schools may indeed be pretty beat, this no universal. For example when I was still an enlisted guy ( retired many years later as an offficer) I was assigned to a medical unit-they had about a dozen Remington rands all original and about 90% finish. They were taken out of the arms room once a year on qualification day, and for field training where they were carried in holsters, cleaned and returned. Since we were not issue ammo for field training ( making carrying the pistol pretty pointless) many troops would wrap them in plastic bags to keep them clean so they got very little wear.
Also ( again with the exception of MP details and armor units ) pistols were mostly assigned to officers and senior nco’s who cared for equipment, and unlike a rifle constantly exposed to the elements they rode protected in holsters
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Old 09-19-2018, 09:35 AM
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Well, I just checked USPS tracking, and they say that my package was delivered on September 13, at 12:39 PM. So I guess I’m ok after all.

Best Regards, Les
That was mom's birthday. She had a Singer.

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Old 09-19-2018, 05:37 PM
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I too put in for one.
I figure if I don't like what I get, there will be someone to take it off my hands for what I have into it, maybe more.
If you get one and don't like it, send me a PM and we'll talk. Seriously.
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Old 09-19-2018, 05:55 PM
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Well I sent my CMP 1911 application today, wonder what the odds are going to end up to get a gun this year.
GOOD LUCK, glenncal1.....

REMEMBER THAT YOU WILL NEVER CATCH A FISH, IF YOU DON'T HAVE A BAIT IN THE WATER ! ! !

AT LEAST YOU ARE IN THE HUNT........
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:29 PM
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Has anyone received an email or other notification from CMP yet? The website mentioned they would start on October 5th.

I realize this is a government agency, but I can't believe they would sit and wait for each "winner" to give them notification, in order, for 8,000 guns. That would take years.
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:42 PM
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Has anyone received an email or other notification from CMP yet? The website mentioned they would start on October 5th.

I realize this is a government agency, but I can't believe they would sit and wait for each "winner" to give them notification, in order, for 8,000 guns. That would take years.
The CMP guy who answers the questions on their forum has given different answers to this very question.

Initially he said the numbers would be applied to the unopened packets, so they would have no way to notify anyone until they got to that number, opened and verified the package contents, then either threw it in the trash (if not correct) or called with what was available.

Lately, he has said it is their intention to notify everyone of their spot in line. So, I don't know what to think.

I just checked and they are saying they have received over 17000 packets, and are waiting for any that may still be enroute and postmarked on or before 10/4. If that number holds it is good news - probably 2000 will get tossed, so the odds for a good package should be about 50/50.
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