I'm working on the 2023 Edition of Standard Catalog of Firearms and need help with a sticky question that's been bugging me for the past couple editions. It concerns the value of (relatively) recently introduced firearms models in lower grades of condition. These would be guns made with modern materials (plastics, alloys, etc.) and metal finishes other that tradition bluing (stainless, matte, etc.), and especially modern designs. In the S&W field this would include M&P rifles & pistols, etc.

Let's call them "New Types" for shorthand.

I'm trying to figure out what a "Fair" condition M&P 15 or other New Type gun would sell for as a percentage of the NIB or Exc value. AND whether "Fair" condition New Type guns ever actually exchange hands in the marketplace.

It seems to me that it takes years (decades?) of steady use to knock these types of guns down a few condition grades. I think the vast majority of them haven't been around long enough, and aren't used enough, to get beat up enough to drop a couple of condition grades from NIB or Excellent. For example, an AR in "Fair" condition would have "some finish remaining." "Good" condition would have "over half" the finish remaining.

My past practice has been to only list recently introduced gun values in NIB and Excellent condition. Once the model has been around a few years I may add "Very Good." I've contended that if a New Type gun has enough use & abuse to fall below that condition grade, it tends to be more likely to be salvaged for parts than sold on the market.

Has anyone seen New Type guns actually sell in Good, Fair or Poor condition? How does their price compare to one in Excellent condition?

I'd appreciate any thoughts on how lower condition New Type guns should be value-guesstimated.

Thanks in advance - Jim

For reference, below are the firearms condition definitions I use in Standard Catalog of Firearms (based on the NRA definitions).

NIB – NEW IN BOX
100% original finish. The gun is exactly as it left the manufacturer. It has not been fired and has no wear. It is in its original factory carton or case with all of the paperwork and accessories that originally came with the gun. All original parts. In this book, NIB is listed only for Modern guns. Antique guns that are in New in Box condition are extremely rare and will bring a substantial premium over an Antique Excellent specimen.

EXCELLENT
An Excellent condition Modern or Antique Gun must be in perfect working condition with unmarred stock or grips. It has an excellent bore, and perfect sharp markings and decoration. It must be completely factory original with no refinish, repair, alterations, or additions of any kind, with factory original sights.
• Modern Excellent - At least 98% original metal and wood finish.
• Antique Excellent - At least 80% original finish.

FINE (Antiques only)
• Antique Fine - 30% to 80% original finish. Minor marks in wood. Good bore. Sharp original lettering, markings, and designs. “Fine” is not used to describe modern guns.

VERY GOOD
A Very Good condition Modern or Antique Gun must have all factory original major parts and be in good working order. It may have some small blemishes, repairs, alterations, or non-factory additions. Markings and decoration are distinct and sharp. No refinishing, pitting, or corrosion.
• Modern Very Good - 90% to 98% original finish. Good bore.
• Antique Very Good - 0% to 30% original finish, or most of a period-of-use professional refinish or factory refinish. Wood may be slightly scratched or dinged. Bore condition is disregarded.

GOOD
A Good condition Modern or Antique gun may have minor repairs, alterations, or non-factory additions. It should be in safe working condition. Main markings should be visible.
• Modern Good – Over half original finish or most of a professional refinish. Bore may have some wear or corrosion.
• Antique Good - Usually no original finish. Metal may be smoothly rusted or lightly pitted in places, and may have been lightly cleaned or professionally refinished. Stock or grips may be scratched or dinged with repaired minor cracks, or may be a correct well-fit replacement. Bore condition is disregarded.

FAIR
Fair condition Modern or Antique guns include those that show heavy use and cosmetic neglect, or have had major non-professional alterations or refinishing. Markings may not be legible, with the important exception that it is not legal to possess a modern firearm with an obliterated serial number. Stock or grips may be replaced or show heavy use or repaired cracks.
• Modern Fair - Generally has some finish remaining. Must be in satisfactory working order and safe to shoot.
• Antique Fair - May be lightly pitted overall, vigorously cleaned, or refinished with rounded edges. If not working, must be repairable. If working, must be safe to shoot.

POOR
Both modern and antique guns will have little to no finish remaining, and may show pitting and rust. Parts may be broken or missing. They may not be working and may not be safe to shoot.
• Modern Poor - Usually these guns are so far gone that they are valued primarily for their salvageable parts.
• Antique Poor - Some heavily worn or rusted antique guns may have some value as conversation-piece relics or representative examples of a rare specimen.

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Jim Supica

Jim, my non-scientific opinion. If it is a currently manufactured gun I think a 50% finish would degrade it's value by 25-50% of of retail value and I would place it in the fair category. My rating on value disregards the current surge of prices even for well worn guns.

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John. SWCA #1586

First of all, thanks for the outstanding work you've done on previous editions of the SCSW.

"New types", IMO, would never be worth more than their MSRP in ANIB condition. They haven't been around long enough to mature into a collectible with the usual increase in value (like a fine vintage wine increases in value over time). I'm saying 15-20 years before any increase based on collectability.

As the condition degrades, I'd say 5% decrease from ANIB to Excellent, and 7-10% from Excellent to Good. Once you hit Fair, it's like the residual price of a used car, maybe 50-60% of MSRP.
In terms of true value, I would find it hard to give a polymer-framed firearm a high value after its sale. The material has less intrinsic value than high grade steels do, no matter how high-tech it may be.

These are just my own opinions, and I don't envy the quandary you have before you, to establish value. The gun world has made a quantum change in the last 20 years, and continues to change almost daily. I will, however, be buying the latest edition of the SCSW once it is on the market.

It seems value lately is what ever the market will put up with, I've seen used late model guns (with the Hillary lock) selling for new guns go for. I don't buy S&W guns with the lock, rare or not. Everyone seems to price their guns in any condition by what nice ones are going for on G-broker. Some Revolvers are appreciating faster than anyone can predict. I quit buying M-28s in any condition when they went over $250. When prices went ballistic I sold my culls for $800.00 now M-28s are going for $1200.00 around here. I consider anything under 75% as shooter grade. Just my 2 cents
SWCA 892

The most used "new types" that I can recall seeing are the used law enforcement Glocks or SIGs that turn up now and again for resale on various seller's sites. Depending on the caliber, model and generation, these seem to sell in the neighborhood of 2/3 of MSRP. Even these guns would mostly rate "good" under the current system. I would think that a really rough one, less than 50% finish (and I don't recall that I've ever seen a Glock or SIG that rough come up for sale) would retail at no more than 50% of MSRP and maybe even less. IMHO.

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Everybody could shoot

I'm not sure how pricing of modern "Used" firearms go in the US, but here in Australia, a dealer will typical go 50% of the MSRP to buy/trade in and they will sell it for 75% of the MSRP.

So a typical new 5" M&P 9mm might be $1000 AUD MSRP. Buyer has it for two years and shoots a couple of matches with it. Then decides to upgrade or change shooting competitions. So the same dealer might give him $500 for a two year old "Excellent" to "Very good" handgun. The same Dealer will then sell the gun for $750 AUD. At least this seems to be the way guns are sold here in Australia if there's nothing special about said handgun.

The most basic value of any tool is based on it's utility! Regardless of condition a running pick-up truck has a value, approximately 3 to 4 times scrap! A functioning firearm will have a basic value. US Military weapons from the early 1960's are still in service. I saw "XM-15" Sn 152 lower rebuilt into a current M-16 configuration and issued to a Ohio National Guard unit! (this was in the early 90's) Also 1911's and 1911A1's were rebuilt many times and issued, and look at their value. I think modern M&P handguns, and AR-15 M&P's are going to have a basic value that is more than the sum of their used parts. And if not, then "The value of their parts" will always be their minimum value. In other words a beater AR is worth no less than X dollars. (beater 1911's were 10-25 dollars in the early 60's)

I think this actual price will be like a Lobster dinner, "Market Value" and impossible to put in any accurate price list! I hate to say it but every semi-auto pistol and MSR is just one school shooting from either "Priceless" or "Worthless".

Sorry, this doesn't help the OP one bit with his dilemma, but I think it is reality.

Ivan

Final question, will there ever be piles of Police trade in ARs? If there are, that will likely establish the basic shooter value.

Tough question. 50% "Fair" would mean it it is functional but looks like it's had a hard life.
50% "Poor" same hard life, needs work to function. Joe

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Wisdom chases me; I'm faster

Really depends upon demand and availability for the specific firearm. This is how I usually consider it during stable market times....

Modern good condition can still sell for ~70-75% of new.
Modern fair condition may only sell for ~60-65%.

Higher demand and/or lower availability will increase pricing significantly.

Local “ Cop Shop” has a rack full of LEO turn in ARs, under $500. Most look to have been carried in a trunk rack of patrol vehicle. Not really interested so have never picked one up.

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3DDFA766-D72A-42E6-A3B2-7D9143C23FBB.jpgHad to post this…

Honestly, if I found a "new type" firearm in 50% condition, I'd be asking a lot of questions and it would likely be a pass for me. If the owner had allowed it to get in such poor condition, what other abuse has it been through?
At best, I'd offer 50% of MSRP. Maybe less depending on model and actual condition.

Perhaps its my age, just don’t want that many more guns. Given to son and grandson, sold several at shows. Had many now super expensive ones
, 1 or 2 kind of regret selling.
Doubt I would even look at 99% of the ones “ I might buy” if in poor condition. Guess we all know the crazy prices And that people are buying.

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Regards,
Lee Jarrett

When the guns from the 1940,s and 1950’s were made current day up until 30 yrs ago were made similar. Never being able to replace with a modern version has to add value to the last generation despite condition

It seems like value should follow condition fairly closely for "new type" guns that are still current production or even a generation or 2 removed.

I agree with the previous poster that a poor condition recent production firearm would raise a lot of questions for me, maybe devalue it below it's condition.

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Just Say No - To Social Media

Having scrolled past the answers already given, I think that inexpensive modern utility guns are not loosing their value as much as traditionally made and finished firearms.
Many owners are refinishing the guns with Duracoat or other easily applied finishes, and customize the guns.

A traditionally high value collectible will be more affected by finish loss and wear, imho.

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FFL08

I agree with most of the posts so far. For Fair condition I'd knock a third of the price off from new. A $600 gun would drop down to around $400.

Cutting the price by half would be about right for Poor condition.

People saying they wouldn't buy well used guns for anything less than half off aren't the target market for these guns... Someone else will buy them.

My constant quandary is in evaluating finish . . . what one fellow believes is 80% I probably consider 40%, and it goes without saying; vice-versa.