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  #51  
Old 07-29-2020, 05:47 PM
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We were discussing this earlier this year, the concern about the gummint issuing stimulus checks leading to hyperinflation, and I noted that Japan has been engaged in deficit spending, big time, since their economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, but the result has been deflation for much of the period since. (Japan is No. 1 in debt to GDP ratio at nearly 240%.) So it ain’t necessarily so that deficit spending causes inflation.

As for inflation in our own country over the past 30 years:




• U.S.: average annual inflation rate 1990-2019 | Statista

(For the record, I don’t claim to understand any of this. Ruminating upon it, and the different learned opinions out there, are just a way of passing the time for me.)
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Old 07-29-2020, 05:53 PM
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This proves @Absalom's point that the Fed is managing inflation at a steady rate. I do not dispute that.

And you are right about Japan.

My point is that it can't go on ad infinitum, especially considering all of the unfunded liabilities that we will need to pay for.

I suspect the bubble will burst caused by external and internal forces.

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Old 07-29-2020, 05:59 PM
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This all smells like “ Peak oil”
What ever happened with that?
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  #54  
Old 07-29-2020, 06:11 PM
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I had J M Keynes "economics" explained in detail early '70's by some very learned professors. "Buy everything you want right now, pay for it with cheaper dollars down the road" (oversimplified, I know). The same folks were quick to throw out "Guns vs Butter" which stresses "smart spending." When I give the "basic economics talk" to teen age students, I always take them to the "United States of Pizza." Basically you can go Keynes however reality is a "Pizza" and the more money you print the more slices you get. Trick is to make the pizza bigger. War makes big pizza fast, Covid lockdown/ uncertainty/ unemployment don't make no pizza at all. I haven't delivered (pun intended) the second half of that, yet. Joe
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Old 07-29-2020, 06:34 PM
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You have obviously led a very successful charmed life... and that's really great. I feel good for you and your family. Some of us, for different reasons, have not had it so good... but no matter. The point is that if you should still be able to see what the OP is saying... namely that the government printing money non-stop and having State and Federal debt & obligations spiraling out of control isn't a really good thing for anybody long-term.

Not all for sure, but some of us and our children and our grandchildren are going to pay a mighty price for this someday. Fortunately, I think I'll be gone before the worst of it comes home to roost. Unfortunately, my children will still be around and one of them falls into the 'working poor' family category that will never own a house, a new car or have any sort of real retirement. You have to be invested in something today or you'll never be able to keep up with the inflation that's coming on wages alone. It would be nice to be able to stop it or at least slow it down a pinch, but I fear we are past the point of no return.
Not so much charmed. I couldn't afford college but I could go to work. As a young man, I commonly worked two (2) jobs at a time, 60 80 hours a week and it was worth it to me. When my friends financed a new, super cool car, I saved up my cash and bough used, with NO financing. I was the "working poor" but while I was/am uneducated, I made a point of earning, saving, studying, investing while developing relationships with men as mentors that were 30 years older than me.

When I got married, I paid for the entire affair with less than $1,000.00 - No $30K weddings for me and I never looked back.
Bought my first home for cash ($40K) and sold it a few years later for $95K, rolled the $95K and additional cash into a new home that was also paid in full the day we moved in.

Charmed my behind ..... It's called dedicated work ethics which by the way is exactly why we're seeing these idiot protests and riots .... Because those people have no work ethics and are demanding that Uncle Sam provide for them, cradle to grave.

Charmed indeed.
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Old 07-29-2020, 06:50 PM
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Not so much charmed. I couldn't afford college but I could go to work. As a young man, I commonly worked two (2) jobs at a time, 60 80 hours a week and it was worth it to me. When my friends financed a new, super cool car, I saved up my cash and bough used, with NO financing. I was the "working poor" but while I was/am uneducated, I made a point of earning, saving, studying, investing while developing relationships with men as mentors that were 30 years older than me.

When I got married, I paid for the entire affair with less than $1,000.00 - No $30K weddings for me and I never looked back.
Bought my first home for cash ($40K) and sold it a few years later for $95K, rolled the $95K and additional cash into a new home that was also paid in full the day we moved in.

Charmed my behind ..... It's called dedicated work ethics which by the way is exactly why we're seeing these idiot protests and riots .... Because those people have no work ethics and are demanding that Uncle Sam provide for them, cradle to grave.

Charmed indeed.
Methinks you misunderstood my meaning. By "charmed", I mean no serious debilitating health issues, no crazy medical bills, no divorce, no other tragic family issues, no accidents, no having to support or care for others in your extended family, no legal judgements against you, etc., etc.

Has nothing to do with how hard you worked or how thrifty you were... and it sounds like you did/were both and I admire you for that.

Many of us did exactly the same and more. Unfortunately, the "charmed" part didn't quite follow all of us like it did you.
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  #57  
Old 07-29-2020, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Onomea View Post
We were discussing this earlier this year, the concern about the gummint issuing stimulus checks leading to hyperinflation, and I noted that Japan has been engaged in deficit spending, big time, since their economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, but the result has been deflation for much of the period since. (Japan is No. 1 in debt to GDP ratio at nearly 240%.) So it ain’t necessarily so that deficit spending causes inflation.

As for inflation in our own country over the past 30 years:




• U.S.: average annual inflation rate 1990-2019 | Statista

(For the record, I don’t claim to understand any of this. Ruminating upon it, and the different learned opinions out there, are just a way of passing the time for me.)
One problem is they are cooking the books. The factors used to calculate inflation hasn't remained constant over those 30 years. I can't remember under which administration this happened, but they rejiggered the formula to exclude food and energy prices. You know, those categories that are showing inflation. I'm sure that isn't the only time.
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Old 07-29-2020, 07:07 PM
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I had J M Keynes "economics" explained in detail early '70's by some very learned professors. "Buy everything you want right now, pay for it with cheaper dollars down the road" (oversimplified, I know). The same folks were quick to throw out "Guns vs Butter" which stresses "smart spending." When I give the "basic economics talk" to teen age students, I always take them to the "United States of Pizza." Basically you can go Keynes however reality is a "Pizza" and the more money you print the more slices you get. Trick is to make the pizza bigger. War makes big pizza fast, Covid lockdown/ uncertainty/ unemployment don't make no pizza at all. I haven't delivered (pun intended) the second half of that, yet. Joe
Keynsian economics is a disaster that in the long run punishes the savers and investors. It is wealth transfer from them to the spenders by using inflation to loot them.
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Old 07-29-2020, 07:07 PM
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One problem is they are cooking the books. The factors used to calculate inflation hasn't remained constant over those 30 years. I can't remember under which administration this happened, but they rejiggered the formula to exclude food and energy prices. You know, those categories that are showing inflation. I'm sure that isn't the only time.
If you think inflation is as low as the government is telling us, try going out and buying a new car or truck tomorrow. You will learn fast that real inflation never sleeps!
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  #60  
Old 07-29-2020, 09:36 PM
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How does it feel to live in a nation that's the greatest debtor nation in history? We have been since 1985.

We have $50 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities. There's no way we're ever going to pay that - even if we taxed everyone at 100%.

Let's face it, we're broke. But the .gov has an unlimited credit line - until it isn't.

Oh well. I'm not going to worry about it... Nothing I can do about it.
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  #61  
Old 07-29-2020, 10:34 PM
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........We have $50 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities. There's no way we're ever going to pay that - even if we taxed everyone at 100%.
Better add $100 TRILLION to that number. Go back a page to the "Debt Clock, we are at $153 TRILLION and adding about a million every 3 seconds. Joe
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Old 07-29-2020, 10:38 PM
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Better add $100 TRILLION to that number. Go back a page to the "Debt Clock, we are at $153 TRILLION and adding about a million every 3 seconds. Joe
I didn't know it was that much!

What's another $100 Trillion? I mean really! The numbers are so mind numbingly big, it's not even funny!
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Old 07-29-2020, 10:47 PM
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I have investments in precious metals. Steel, copper and lead.
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Old 07-29-2020, 11:05 PM
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.....
But Basically you can go Keynes however reality is a "Pizza" and the more money you print the more slices you get. Trick is to make the pizza bigger. War makes big pizza fast, Covid lockdown/ uncertainty/ unemployment don't make no pizza at all.
Sorry, not at all. Exactly the opposite.

That’s why the US was at its record debt right after WW II, approx. 113% of GDP, which is the only number that matters, not all the silly numbers like “debt calculated per household” and such invented to scare people, or absolute amount of trillion gazillion dollars, which is meaningless.

Our debt has been back above 100% for some years, and if the last tax cut is made permanent, pre-Covid projections (for whatever they’re worth) had us back at that post-WW II level of 113% by about 2028. The Covid slowdown and increased spending will certainly speed that up.

But it’s all about the size of the productive economy. And a war economy is only profitable if somebody else is having the war and you’re selling them stuff.
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Old 07-29-2020, 11:15 PM
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Sorry, not at all. Exactly the opposite.
That’s why the US was at its record debt right after WW II, approx.
And it was paid off using cheaper dollars created by a wildly, rapidly expanding post war economy. Which has disappeared, forever. Joe
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Old 07-29-2020, 11:16 PM
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The US has been operating with a war economy since Korea. We've been at perpetual war since then and will be for the foreseeable future. Why else is our military is the biggest and most expensive?

Then we go fight wars in third world countries and stay there for years and years spending billions with no one knowing or saying what victory is.

Am I wrong?
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Old 07-30-2020, 12:12 AM
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[B]Not so much charmed. I couldn't afford college but I could go to work. As a young man, I commonly worked two (2) jobs at a time, 60 80 hours a week and it was worth it to me. When my friends financed a new, super cool car, I saved up my cash and bough used, with NO financing. I was the "working poor" but while I was/am uneducated, I made a point of earning, saving, studying, investing while developing relationships with men as mentors that were 30 years older than me.
You never were and still are not uneducated. You got your degree from the School of Experience, where the school colors are black and blue.

I used to do foreclosures and some collection work so I learned about other people's problems with geting overextended on debt.
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Old 07-30-2020, 03:31 AM
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Don’t worry...it’s all over in a relatively short period of time.....it’s called death. Some are lucky and have to navigate this morass for what, 80-85 years...average male life span is now just over 76 years....if’n your a pup I get your anxiety but an ol’ timer like me I am just happy to wake up this morning, see the faces of the grandkids and have a few bucks in my pocket ....or whatever it’s called...bonds, equities, precious metals and gems, digital currency, livestock and those hard goods, pew pews you mention It’s all going to out last me because I don’t have another 75 years in me....let alone another 10-12. Step back from the key board and take a deep breath......see dont you feel better already.
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  #69  
Old 07-30-2020, 08:37 AM
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Great post PP, could I add or expand on something you mentioned for the sake of good discussion concerning the Fed and printing of fiat money. We have created a society with the younger generation that relies on plastic to do everything. How much more cash has the Fed been able to repurpose or hide from the balance sheet because of credit card use. Ralph Epperson's book The Unseen Hand was an eye opener for me. Hopefully we as a Nation never have to return to the "barter system", but if we do how many bullets and seeds may i get for an iPhone 11 with selfie stick?
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Old 08-01-2020, 01:44 PM
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Anyhow, back to my original point...

U.S. Gets a Debt Warning From Fitch as Stimulus Battle Rages

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  #71  
Old 08-02-2020, 10:43 AM
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Have heard some of the OP's original point from Ron Paul over the years, although agreeable about the nations debts/deficit not really sure of the significance it has at the individual level. We passed the point of no return decades ago with national over spending. Without the economy of the USA being active and consuming it would change the balance of the entire world economy. The central banks understand that if we as nation fail the entire world will follow us down the drain to. Sure there are other influences that surround this idea but K.I.S.S. Enjoy what you have and be responsible and maybe we can survive comfortably when things go bad.
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Old 08-02-2020, 12:57 PM
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I'd take as many worthless pieces of paper like this one as I could get.

Me too.


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