And they only get paid at the end of the mission (if alive). They make $4k US monthly, roughly 6x the average Russian's salary.

See how much money Ukraine just saved Putin

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it just needs more voltage

The Ukrainians have hit a Russian ammo depot in Crimea. Presumably their special forces again: Crimea: Russia blames sabotage as blasts rock another military facility. - CNN

I believe the 14th Army Group occupies Kherson. If Kherson is effectively cut off by land and surrounded and onset of winter it will be a repeat of Stalingrad only Stalin didn’t have to worry about explaining causalities in The Great Patriotic War to the people. The question will be how many soldiers Putin is willing to commit to the meat grinder.

It is not just the Army that is at risk but his Navy also. The Navy will have to put warships close to coast to support the Army putting it’s ships within range of Ukrainian missiles.

Will Putin allow the surrender of a entire Army Group or hold out for a Spring Offensive regardless of losses to the Army and Navy?

After a winter of this going on, there may not be enough Army or Navy left to Spring an offensive...

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protocalldesign.com

The last pictures I saw online showed that you could walk across one of the bridges, but forget heavy equipment. The Russians my be forced to do a Dunkirk, withdrawal while leaving most of their equipment behind, or destroying it all before they leave.

This is the perfect cue for an ill advised "not one step back" order from the Kremlin. Time will tell.

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Release the Kraken

Not to mention losses to their senior officer corp. It seems the Ukrainians have identified over a hundred senior Russian officers killed in action.

Ukraine shot down one of Russia's premier attack helicopters in April, but it fell in no-man's-land between the front lines. Only with Ukraine's recent advances did they gain access to the crash site. The wreckage contained the remains of Russia's top attack helicopter pilot, who led last year's Victory Day Parade in Moscow, Colonel Vasiliy Kleshchenko.

"Ukraine Army eliminates Russia’s best helicopter pilot" Ukraine Army eliminates Russia’s best helicopter pilot

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Slava Ukraini!

Southern front still looks like a setup with at least an option for Crimea.
If it is to be, we'll know by Spring.
If they make it through, I expect a Ukrainian military buildup the likes of which never before seen in history.

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it just needs more voltage

Reading AP reports, I'd say the most
important military assistance the West,
i.e. NATO, is giving the Ukrainians is
intensive infantry training.

Stories indicate the training centers a
lot on urban fighting. The Brits are
impressed by the motivation shown
by the Ukrainians who have trained
in Britain.

Not only British but other NATO trainers
have been working with the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainian recruits apparently
number in the thousands.

Considering how "untrained" Russian
soldiers seem to be, it's quite a
contrast.

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Ubi Est Mea

It's not a great place for a generalization.
Sure, we have been made well aware of the Russian canon fodder, but those who took the vast swath of territory along the Northern, Eastern and Southern rim knew, and continue to know what they are doing.

Seems to me to be a bit of a large scale game of Russian Roulette. Pick a path through and see if you have canon fodder or professionals.

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it just needs more voltage

Maybe more careless smokers in Crimea??

Another Russian ammo dump, well behind front lines in Maiskoye, Crimea, exploded today.

Russia is attributing this and the recent airfield attack there, to actions of sabotage.


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Slava Ukraini!

In the eastern and southern fronts,
artillery, namely vast amounts of
Russian artillery, ruled. That
advantage has lessened greatly
with the advance of artillery and
supplies to the Ukraine forces.

Hence the recent slow to no
progress by the Russians on
those fronts. Of course, they
are probing for a weak spot
in Ukrainian defenses.

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Ubi Est Mea

There's a strong pocket around Donetsk that picked up some yardage.
Their star players are still on the field.

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it just needs more voltage

Anyone going to send marshmallows?

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it just needs more voltage

While Ukraine is not yet proficient in large scale combined-arms offensive maneuvers, they've been developing western-style special forces for 8 years, so maybe they did infiltrate Crimea and cause the recent trouble.

Since 2014, the US special-operations community — primarily Green Berets  from the Army's 10th Special Forces Group —  has led a multinational effort  to train Ukrainians.

"Attacks Behind Russian Lines Hint at Ukrainian Use of US Training" Attacks Behind Russian Lines Hint at Ukrainian Use of US Training

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Slava Ukraini!

Might be relatively easy to go larping to Crimea for now. Russia is currently concentrated on the Eastern front with hit and miss advances.
Meanwhile, Ukraine seems to be getting the hang of the covert ops gig with a few more hits around Kursk

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it just needs more voltage

I think it was "a bridge too far" the moment he attacked Ukraine. Even in a worse case scenario -- let's say, for the sake of argument, that in that first month he successfully decapitated the Ukrainian government and installed a puppet regime -- he would have to fight a determined and strong insurgency every hour he occupied the country.

His little adventure was doomed from the start, and still is. The only real question at this point is how much blood will have to be spilled before he realizes he cannot win?

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Where Law Ends, Tyranny Begins

I wonder what the average Russian on the street thinks of this mess.

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No baby we aint

Not much. It's not like the average Russian actually knows there's a mess.

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Release the Kraken

Even considering the way information is controlled and the flow of news is managed there, don't you think they've lost enough men that average Russians are starting to realize the "special military operation" isn't going as planned?

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Where Law Ends, Tyranny Begins

Well, there's another fly-in-the-ointment clue that surfaced yesterday. A nationwide Russian defense industry mobilization is now in effect. All factory personnel time off is cancelled until further notice, with 24 hour operations and double-shifts mandated.




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Slava Ukraini!

Good essay on Ukrainian military strategy:

Opinions | Why Kyiv’s ‘thousand bee sting’ strategy is costing Russia dearly

Ukraine is making brilliant use of the "indirect approach" to warfare.
Opinion by Max Boot

https://wapo.st/3dz2PYk

Very good article. Let's hope the Ukrainians continue to give the "Max Boot" to the Russians

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"I drank WHAT?" (Socrates)

It's pretty much all they can do.
Russia can afford to roll scorched earth and break anything they want. Ukraine has to be surgical. The mess left over will be theirs to keep, win lose or draw. Saturation artillery might work, but only at the expense of becoming their own enemy

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it just needs more voltage

Looks like all that special ops training we helped provide is paying off.

It's certainly given Ukraine a new pastime.
I'll define "payoff" as the liberation of Kherson however.
Winter might make that happen if black ops softened things enough

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it just needs more voltage

Courtesy of the Office of Defense Cooperation since 2014.

Old Chinese method of “ death by 1000 cuts” is the same. This Ukrainian event is gotten to be a get your popcorn and beer/ sodas ready….

This article says Russians — civilians, I presume — are fleeing occupied Crimea for Russia. Getting a bit too hot, sounds like. 38,000 cars across the Crimea Bridge leading to the Russian mainland on Tuesday.

Russians are realising Crimea is ‘not a place for them’, says Zelenskiy | Crimea | The Guardian

They're probably singing "Crimea River" all the way back to Russia...

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protocalldesign.com

That's a LOT of whistle blowers

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it just needs more voltage

Another damning article from The Guardian UK.

‘I don’t see justice in this war’: Russian soldier exposes rot at core of Ukraine invasion

Exclusive: Pavel Filatyev has fled his homeland after publishing a 141-page account detailing his experiences on the frontline

...“I am not afraid to fight in war. But I need to feel justice, to understand that what I’m doing is right. And I believe that this is all failing not only because the government has stolen everything, but because we, Russians, don’t feel that what we are doing is right.”

Two weeks ago, Filatyev went on to his VKontakte social media page and published a 141-page bombshell: a day-by-day description of how his paratrooper unit was sent to mainland Ukraine from Crimea, entered Kherson and captured the seaport, and dug in under heavy artillery fire for more than a month near Mykolaiv – and then how he eventually was wounded and evacuated from the conflict with an eye infection.

By then, he was convinced he had to expose the rot at the core of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “We were sitting under artillery fire by Mykolaiv,” he said. “At that point I already thought that we’re just out here doing *******, what the (expletive) do we need this war for? And I really had this thought: ‘God, if I survive, then I’ll do everything that I can to stop this.’”...

and linked in the same article:

They turned us into savages’: extract from Pavel Filatyev’s account

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"I drank WHAT?" (Socrates)

Looking at a map I can guess what Gen. George Patton ,Stonewall Jackson or Erwin Rommel would do. Russians in Crimea will be cut off, IMHO this will be a huge event with ole Vlad and scary as to what extremes he will use.

Reuters: The apparent Ukrainian capability to strike deeper into Russian-occupied territory, either with some form of weapon or with sabotage, indicates a shift in the conflict

Story here.

"...On Wednesday, Russia’s RIA news agency cited sources as saying the commander of its Black Sea fleet, Igor Osipov, had been replaced with a new chief, Viktor Sokolov.

If confirmed, the move would mark one of the most prominent sackings of a military official so far in a war in which Russia has suffered heavy losses in men and equipment.

The Black Sea Fleet, which has a revered history in Russia, has suffered several humiliations since President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine...

In April, Ukraine struck its flagship, the Moskva, a huge cruiser, with Neptune missiles. It became the biggest warship to be sunk in combat for 40 years..."

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"I drank WHAT?" (Socrates)

That's by far the most important question in this dispute between neighbors.

It could escalate out of control easily with an unstable Putin in control.........especially if he has a terminal cancer.

yeah ... I'd wait till cover of darkness when they feels its safe to flee and order up package both ends to maximize the drama in between.
Give some survivors more to talk about

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it just needs more voltage

A recent Yale study argues that Western media, misled by Putin's cherry-picked statistics, does not understand the dire state of the Russian economy:

...Since the invasion, the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin...


...From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:

- Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated...

- Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed...

- Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill...

- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP...

- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses...

- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year...

...Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes...

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Franek Sokolowski, Michal Wyrebkowski, Mateusz Kasprowicz :: SSRN

I'll take that with a grain of salt.
They have been in the global economy for a while, and like the feel i'm sure. But their roots remain.
While anecdotal, one can find Garage 54 on youtube.
The channel features Vlad, a Russian auto mechanic and his team of gearheads. You might see episodes where they cut Lada engines in half with angle grinders, weld them together, investing weeks of labor just to blow it up on a test drive. If this represents the determination of the Eastern European culture at large, Self sufficiency and raw will are their principal commodity. They will return to their roots and thrive given a time frame long enough for them to awake.
This conflict is on a deadline. Do not underestimate anyone involved

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it just needs more voltage

FWIW, look at history and how countries economy result in war(s). China’s economy is slipping too. Somewhat concerning….

Okay comrades, time for a smoke break. Oops.

Tsk tsk. Another Russian ammo dump exploded, but this one is in Russia's Belgorod region, about nine miles from the border with Ukraine.



"Fire breaks out at ammunition depot in Russia’s Belgorod region" Fire breaks out at ammunition depot in Russia’s Belgorod region

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Slava Ukraini!

I think i saw three on the map today ... At the rate these smoke break accidents happen, I could swear it was like someone was actually trying to cause trouble

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it just needs more voltage

Wonder when we'll start the "China-Taiwan" thread?

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No baby we aint

More sabre rattling.

Yesterday, Russia violated Finland's airspace with a pair of MIG-31.

Today, Norwegian F-35 and Swedish Gripen-39 aircraft escorted American B-52 bombers to a Swedish bombing range, where 2000 pound JDAM GBU-31 guided bombs were released.

It was the first time US forces have used live munitions in Sweden.


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Guess the rumor that we are weak on China seems exaggerated.

Yes. Looked a bit more and saw another Russian ammo dump "problem" reported back in Kherson, but saw something else interesting back in Russia, in the same Belgorod region where the ammo dump exploded today. There are reports and video out claiming to show another "smoking problem" at Stary Oskol airfield in Belgorod.

The reports and video purport to show flames and explosions at the airfield. The reports claim that this small airfield was being used as a base for helicopters, and that recent satellite imagery shows two dozen choppers based there. Ouch!

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Slava Ukraini!

Watched general Jack Keane on Fox this morning. He says that Ukraine has been planning a re-take of Crimea for some time, but what's holding them back is that they are uncertain if continued and sufficient help from the U.S. with munitions supplies will be forthcoming.

John

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- Cogito, ergo armatus sum -

And again, last night ....

At least four explosions occurred at the Belbek airfield near Sevastopol Crimea.

Saw something else about the explosions at the Stary Oskol airfield in Belgorod. It is sixty miles inside Russia.

Then saw a piece on how Britain is leading an effort to support Ukraine's covert deep penetration by small teams into Russia's battlespace. It said a retired British General of Special Forces is leading the effort, with support from SAS and MI6, with British trainers very close to the front lines.

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Slava Ukraini!

Meanwhile, with the sudden rise in artillery along the southern front, those teams need bring some cigarettes to Kerch and Taman

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it just needs more voltage

I suspect Ukrainian infiltration
into Russian lines is a bit
easier in this conflict because
of the almost universality of
uniforms, similar languages
and familiarity with the area.

Add to that the possible lack of
strong cohesive Russian units
not familiar with each other.

Also, any Ukraine nationals that
remain in the areas can be of
help.

Certainly dangerous but it looks
like commando missions are
quite successful.

As for NATO advisers quite close
to the frontlines, I've always
figured that was most likely.

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Ubi Est Mea

None of us can know for sure, of course, but I would bet a month's pay that the USA is providing an immense amount of covert, behind-the-scenes help to Ukraine. I wonder how many American men and women whose families know only that they "work for the government" are up to their necks in this fight right now, risking their lives anonymously, because it's the right thing to do.

This war is the starkest good-vs.-evil struggle in Europe since World War II, and the United States MUST be on the right side of history here. There is no excuse for Russia's invasion of Ukraine...no "other side of the story"...this was a naked act of aggression, and it cannot be tolerated or permitted to succeed.

The Western nations, the European Union, NATO, and the United States in particular, MUST do everything we can do -- short of open combat with the Russians -- to ensure Ukraine's ultimate victory and preserve its independence.

Here's a great article from today's Washington Post, an analysis of the Russian intelligence failures and miscalculations that let Putin to think he could actually get away with this invasion...

https://wapo.st/3pOU8MB

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Where Law Ends, Tyranny Begins