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Old 02-24-2022, 12:57 AM
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Default The Russians have gone in

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Situation is very confused. First it's confined to Donbas. Then it's about the "demilitarisation and denazification" of Ukraine. Either way, the fat is really in the fire now.

Ukraine-Russia crisis: Putin announces military operation - BBC News

Ukraine conflict: Russia announces special military operation in Donbas - BBC News
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:01 AM
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This is like Sept 1, 1939 all over again. Question is, what will the world do this time? What can be done?
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:05 AM
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Ukraine has lost 14,000 KIA fighting Russian-backed insurgents since 2014 - that's 2x our casualties in the Revolutionary War.

In 2002 I was running a police executive management course for foriegn police at a US location. We had police ranking officials from countries with contiguous land borders or sea borders/trade routes. One session we had Byelorussians, Russians, and Ukrainians - while all read/wrote/spoke Russian, the Ukrainian govt insisted on Ukrainian language printed material and simultaneous interpretation. That was because the official position was (and is) that the Russian period in Ukraine was a forced occupation during which millions of Ukranians were killed or starved to death. I had no idea of the antipathy between Ukrainians and Russians until that point.

Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia all consider the Russians, who occupied their countries until the Soviet Union collapsed, the same as the Nazis, who also occupied their countries.
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:08 AM
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So many stories about "Russia" the last five years, so little time.
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:10 AM
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Unhappy

WW III?
Let's hope not.


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Old 02-24-2022, 01:40 AM
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One thing about this - our intelligence services had it 100% right, all the way down to a 12-hour window before the attacks.
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:45 AM
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Stalin was hard on Ukrainians. Trouble is there is a large population of Russians in Ukraine. In past Czechs were in similar situation at start of Hitlers power. They had significant Germanic population who were getting
short stroked. This gave Nazis excuse to “ liberate”. Similar politics were the cause of the troubles in Balkans , Bosnian war.
I doubt we do anything, Europe will do nothing with US “behind” them. If
Putin doesn’t pull genocide the west is going to act like it’s not happening.
After all every thing here is peachy, no reason to rock the boat.
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:48 AM
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Right now Ukraine is 77% Ukrainian, 17% Russian, and 6% other.

Ethnic Groups

Ukrainian 77.8%, Russian 17.3%, Belarusian 0.6%, Moldovan 0.5%, Crimean Tatar 0.5%, Bulgarian 0.4%, Hungarian 0.3%, Romanian 0.3%, Polish 0.3%, Jewish 0.2%, other 1.8%


Ukraine - The World Factbook

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Old 02-24-2022, 02:06 AM
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One goal in this Russian
campaign might also be
to solidify a Belarus corridor
to Kaliningrad, which sits
between Poland and
Lithuania, both NATO
countries.

Kaliningrad is home port
for Russia's Baltic Sea
fleet. Putin would love to
split off the NATO Baltic
countries from Poland.

Its not been uncommon
for U.S./NATO air forces
and Russian air forces
to come dangerously
close to each other in
maneuvers and even open
games of "chicken."

In northern Poland it's
not been uncommon for
"tourists" to view the
Russian bear right on the
Polish border.
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Old 02-24-2022, 02:08 AM
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Seems that Kyiv (I always thought it was spelled Kiev) is under missile attack, probably by cruise missiles. Also Odessa. The real fear is that the invasion may well spread to the Baltic states and Poland. Long, long lines of refugees trying to get to Poland on the highways. They have no place else to go.

Gasoline prices will skyrocket and I bet the Dow will be down 5,000 tomorrow morning.
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Old 02-24-2022, 02:14 AM
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Putin knows this "minor incursion" will not be challenged on the ground by any other nations. I think the Ukrainians may give him a bloody nose. But he'll get what he wants. I don't think he's dumb enough to hit any NATO country in the area. Would be bad for his income.
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Old 02-24-2022, 02:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleEd View Post
One goal in this Russian
campaign might also be
to solidify a Belarus corridor
to Kaliningrad, which sits
between Poland and
Lithuania, both NATO
countries.

Kaliningrad is home port
for Russia's Baltic Sea
fleet. Putin would love to
split off the NATO Baltic
countries from Poland.
If the next stops on the Putin European tour are Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, then you don't worry so much about the location of Kaliningrad.
.
.
.
A few weeks later....

Putin thinking: 'Hmm, that Kazakhstan place has our space launch facility, so maybe we need to "secure" that next. You know, I think Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan need some "help" with government like Ukraine did. I'd better make all these places "secure" and call the whole empire... sorry, group, something sexy like The Union of...wait, what? That's been done before? Gavno!'
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Old 02-24-2022, 02:35 AM
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The Baltic states are all part of NATO.
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Old 02-24-2022, 04:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudi View Post
Putin knows this "minor incursion" will not be challenged on the ground by any other nations. I think the Ukrainians may give him a bloody nose. But he'll get what he wants. I don't think he's dumb enough to hit any NATO country in the area. Would be bad for his income.
This is an extremely dangerous situation, for Europe and for the world.

Putin is like the bully in a neighborhood, who does what he wants to, and doesn't care if he upsets or offends or even hurts others. Laws, rules of conduct, treaties...none of those apply to him. His attitude is "well, what're you gonna do about it?" And really...how do you counter that? If you do nothing, you're validating the bullying. But standing up to a bully requires backbone, and grit, and a willingness to take a punch or two, in the interests of justice, and peace and stability in the long run.

In the aftermath of World War II, the victorious Allies arrested the leaders of the Third Reich, and tried them for war crimes in Nuremberg. Among the charges against them were that they planned and carried out a war of aggression...and when convicted, they were hanged for their crimes. Well, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is almost exactly analogous to Hitler's invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939...a clear and obvious war crime, a blatant violation of the international rule of law.

The question the United Nations has to decide now is what are we going to do about it, especially if the planned economic sanctions don't persuade Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. Do we let Russia annex Ukraine because that would be better than waging war? Or do the UN nations band together and attack him, drive him out of Ukraine? (Remember: That was the approach the UN took when Saddam Hussein invaded and occupied Kuwait.)

Many questions here...but no good answers...
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Old 02-24-2022, 04:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LVSteve View Post
If the next stops on the Putin European tour are Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, then you don't worry so much about the location of Kaliningrad.
The Baltic states are NATO members. If they are attacked, it is World War 3.
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Old 02-24-2022, 05:39 AM
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In the back of Putin’s mind I believe he’s thinking how nice it would be to rebuild the Soviet Union. Unfortunately I believe that right at this time he’s got little chance of being stopped by the weak opposition at NATO and current leaders.

I’m waiting for China to move on Taiwan too.
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Old 02-24-2022, 06:42 AM
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I have a buddy who's a major in the Ukrainian army. Putin's lies regarding the invasion and it's root causes are too numerous to get into here, but as my buddy said, the Ukrainian army of today is not the same one as in 2014. Russian troops are going to get a seriously bloody nose this time and when resistance collapses, as it almost surely will given the disparity in numbers, the remaining Ukrainian forces and civilian resistance are going to go underground and continue a protracted guerilla warfare campaign against the occupiers. Think Afghanistan or Viet Nam. As in any guerilla war, the authorities are going to get increasingly vicious in response and it's mostly innocent civilians who'll pay the price. That will turn more of the neutral population against the aggressors, and the cycle will continue. How truly sad.
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Old 02-24-2022, 08:25 AM
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Putin's resolve certainly exceeded my expectations. This invasion will case a lot of hardships for the Russian people. I did not think that he would risk bankrupting his country to regain control over Ukraine. It may be that he sees the political window closing and doesn't want to take the chance that the west ends up with a leader with a spine over the next couple of years which made it "now or never". Hopefully this will be a wake up call but past being prologue, I doubt it.
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Old 02-24-2022, 08:39 AM
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Putin made a subtle hint to Russias' vast nuclear arsenal when warning NATO about interference.
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Old 02-24-2022, 08:50 AM
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UN Security Council can't do a thing with Russia, a permanent member, holding veto power. One thought popping in my head is just how long the Russian people will put up with Putin. I think if NATO were to get involved, there is a distinct possibility of a 3rd revolution in Russia.
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Old 02-24-2022, 08:59 AM
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Just hopped on Flightradar24. We have B-52s on station in Poland right now. Not to mention F-16s in Romania and large numbers of tankers aloft. We're not trying to hide them at all.
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Old 02-24-2022, 09:08 AM
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UN is a joke
Ukraine should of joined NATO when Poland did
President Clinton should not of stiff armed Ukraine into getting rid of their nuclear weapons
Now it is time for NATO countries to build up their own military force and weapons, and stop relying on the US.
No matter how angry we are about this, not one American life should be lost to protect a country that would not protect itself.
I read a report this morning that even though there are 40+ million Ukraine people, they only have 1.3 million guns between them as private citizens.

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Old 02-24-2022, 10:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alton View Post
UN is a joke
Ukraine should of joined NATO when Poland did
President Clinton should not of stiff armed Ukraine into getting rid of their nuclear weapons
Now it is time for NATO countries to build up their own military force and weapons, and stop relying on the US.
No matter how angry we are about this, not one American life should be lost to protect a country that would not protect itself.
I read a report this morning that even though there are 40+ million Ukraine people, they only have 1.3 million guns between them as private citizens.
There were roughly 10 million firearms in private hands in the Ukraine at last credible pre-invasion count, with only 800k actually registered.

Last edited by s&wchad; 02-24-2022 at 11:55 AM. Reason: clean up
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Old 02-24-2022, 10:19 AM
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The west lost this months ago. There will be no attacks from aircraft on station. Some sound like kids playing cowboys. Russia / Putin is not a fanatic. No nuclear weapons will be used. Standard Communist tactics will be used against the population once they are rolled over. I would guess Putin wants to save as much infrastructure as possible. As far as persons of interest, I’m sure they have complete lists. The amount of corruption in Ukraine is more than likely networked with Russian oligarchs who are allowed to prosper at Putin’s pleasure. This is a done deal. The West is going to beat their lips and rattle their swords, and pray Putin doesn’t do anything that forces them to do something.
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Old 02-24-2022, 10:29 AM
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I hate to say it but I have to agree with all of that.
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Old 02-24-2022, 10:43 AM
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So I guess I shouldn't hold my breath waiting for Tula steel case to go on sale.
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Old 02-24-2022, 11:17 AM
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I hope the American people learn from this. We allow our politicians to interfere with politics in foreign lands. A good example was given on the Russian situation. The west rings Russian border with Nato. Yet we would act swiftly, and did when Russia was going to put missiles in Cuba.
Russia and Putin are Communist bad actors but you still have to look at this from their perspective. In fact a good portion of all present day problems stem from post WW1 meddling by England & France for the benefit of the big money. Today it’s worse because big money is over riding nationalism.
If truth was know Putin and the other Communist dictators own big chunks of “our” multi national corps.
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Old 02-24-2022, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Mark8 View Post
The Baltic states are NATO members. If they are attacked, it is World War 3.
Only if NATO actually steps up. Just sayin'.
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Old 02-24-2022, 11:24 AM
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So; we have been helping Ukraine learn democracy since 1992. They've gotten better at it, and in a generation would have gained EU accession. The Ukrainians have wanted nothing to do with Russian kleptocracy - not under Bush 1, Clinton, Bush 2, Obama, and Trump. Now they pay in blood for not bending their knees to Putin.

My only sympathies in this are for people who want to be free, have worked at it, and did nothing at all to provoke Russia.

We used to stand for freedom.

We guaranteed Ukraine's borders in '94 so they would give up their nukes. How's that working for Ukraine?


MEMORANDUM ON SECURITY ASSURANCES IN CONNECTION WITH UKRAINE’S ACCESSION TO THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Budapest, 5 December 1994

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,

Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon State,

Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time,

Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.

Confirm the following:

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.

This Memorandum will become applicable upon signature.

Signed in four copies having equal validity in the English, Russian and Ukrainian languages.


Budapest Accord: a treaty? – Treaty Law

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Old 02-24-2022, 11:47 AM
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This invasion will be a good
test of just how rock solid
the Russian forces are and
if their morale is good.
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Old 02-24-2022, 11:51 AM
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The only person I’ve heard call this all, Russian step by step from the get go, was retired General Jack Keane.
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Old 02-24-2022, 11:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drm50 View Post
I hope the American people learn from this. We allow our politicians to interfere with politics in foreign lands. A good example was given on the Russian situation. The west rings Russian border with Nato. Yet we would act swiftly, and did when Russia was going to put missiles in Cuba.
Russia and Putin are Communist bad actors but you still have to look at this from their perspective. In fact a good portion of all present day problems stem from post WW1 meddling by England & France for the benefit of the big money. Today it’s worse because big money is over riding nationalism.
If truth was know Putin and the other Communist dictators own big chunks of “our” multi national corps.
What's wrong with Ukraine wanting to be in NATO? We don't base our foreign policy on what dictators want to do. Should we just say "sorry, you can't join the free, civilized world because you're too close to Russia?"
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Old 02-24-2022, 11:55 AM
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I‘ll be more careful with predictions, haven‘t done too well so far. I believed an invasion of the still Ukrainian-controlled parts of the two “newly independent republics” in eastern Ukraine to be likely. I did not expect a full-on invasion. Putin is obviously considerably more “daring” or “reckless” (depending on your perspective) than I would have thought.

But as the Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke wrote in 1871, no operational plan is likely to survive first contact with the enemy (famously rephrased by Mike Tyson as everybody having a plan until they’re punched in the mouth).

As Osama bin Laden found out, your initial plan to shake up the world can succeed spectacularly …. and the long-term results still be very different, maybe the opposite, from what you intended.

It seems likely that Putin will “win” the initial war. But that’s likely only the beginning. Remember “Mission Accomplished” in 2003?
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Old 02-24-2022, 12:07 PM
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See my edit in post #1.
CLICK HERE & READ

DO NOT discuss or comment on American politics.
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Old 02-24-2022, 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by smithra_66 View Post
What's wrong with Ukraine wanting to be in NATO? We don't base our foreign policy on what dictators want to do. Should we just say "sorry, you can't join the free, civilized world because you're too close to Russia?"
The following is in no way an endorsement of the current Russian action.

Consider this:

If Mexico had applied to join the Warsaw Pact in the 60s or 70s, what would have been the reaction of the US?
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Old 02-24-2022, 12:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LVSteve View Post
The following is in no way an endorsement of the current Russian action.

Consider this:

If Mexico had applied to join the Warsaw Pact in the 60s or 70s, what would have been the reaction of the US?
It wouldn't have been invasion. That was the time of the Cold War. There was not a similar situation before yesterday. Today there is.

Last edited by biku324; 02-24-2022 at 02:03 PM.
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Old 02-24-2022, 12:22 PM
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I had no doubts that once Putin decided to cross the border, he would keep on rolling to take over the entirety of the Ukraine, and maybe beyond. That was always his plan. In for a penny, in for a pound. I just cannot see NATO having the will to do anything beyond vocally objecting should Putin push into the Baltic states and Poland. They will be on their own.
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Old 02-24-2022, 12:46 PM
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Meanwhile in the South China Sea………………
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Old 02-24-2022, 12:49 PM
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Putin has said that the worse thing that has ever happened in the history of the world is the breakup of the Soviet Union. Everything he thinks and does is through this filter. He will do anything short of self-destruction to reform the USSR. Anything he thinks he can get away with toward the goal of reforming the USSR he will do. In his mind, it is his destiny to rebuild the Soviet Union. And, he is nuts.
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:48 PM
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Do you wonder if this would have happened had Ukraine kept their nuclear weapons they inherited during the “fall” of he Soviet Union?

Me thinks not.
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:50 PM
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Never wonder why NK and Iran want nukes - countries with nukes don't get invaded.
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:54 PM
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Putin has said that the worse thing that has ever happened in the history of the world is the breakup of the Soviet Union. Everything he thinks and does is through this filter. He will do anything short of self-destruction to reform the USSR. Anything he thinks he can get away with toward the goal of reforming the USSR he will do. In his mind, it is his destiny to rebuild the Soviet Union. And, he is nuts.
There's never been a tyrant that didn't want more leverage, power and control over other people.
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Old 02-24-2022, 02:11 PM
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Do you wonder if this would have happened had Ukraine kept their nuclear weapons they inherited during the “fall” of he Soviet Union?

Me thinks not.
That‘s a tempting thought, and even people from Ukraine talk about that these days, but it’s very unhistoric.

The newly independent Ukraine didn‘t inherit operational control over a nuclear force ready to be used at its discretion for deterrence, but the hardware of mostly ICBM‘s aimed at the US, with no nuclear program and the control infrastructure either in Russia or having been dismantled by the Russians before leaving.

Just like in the other republics, the question wasn‘t whether Ukraine was going to be a nuclear power, but how to safely dispose of the bad stuff without anything falling into the wrong hands or giving lunatics access. The “Great Powers” of the time, the US, pre-Putin Russia, and the Europeans, would have likely refused Ukraine diplomatic recognition and support if they had tried playing nuclear poker.

Hindsight is 20/20, but back then it wasn’t an option.
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Old 02-24-2022, 02:16 PM
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I think that the invasion of Ukraine has been the work of ONE individual: Vladimir Putin.

Although Russia's parliamentary body gave unanimous consent, it's very clear that when Putin says **** they all squat and ask what color. They are all toadies to his will. There was one initial dissent, and Putin quickly put him in his place and in obvious fear for his life.

Now let's look at what the Russian PEOPLE want. I strongly believe that they don't want waves - especially the kind that directly affect them: incredible inflation, lack of control over their lives, innumerable nations hacked off at them, deaths in their military, Russian relatives being killed in Ukraine, the possibility of nuclear war, etc. etc.

It's a truism that if you want to kill a snake, you need to cut its head off. The prime historical example is that there were many attempts on Hitler's life. Unfortunately, all failed. As a result, of course, he killed hundreds, including Germany's most admired general officer, Erwin Rommel. Had the attempts to kill Hitler succeeded, WWII in Europe most assuredly would have been ended toot sweet.

The Russian people will soon realize that they have been handed a very costly and unwanted raw deal.

I have to ask, as others are thinking, will there be another Russian revolution - and in the course of that, will Putin meet his maker due to internal outrage? Time will tell, but I think the seeds of a new revolution will have been firmly planted as things play out.

I am not permitted on this forum to conjecture about what part, if any, the U.S. or its allies will play in this scenario, so I won't.

Get lots of popcorn and stand by.

John

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Old 02-24-2022, 02:31 PM
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Looks like they are handing out AKs to civilians.
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Old 02-24-2022, 02:33 PM
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I think the final out come will be Putin will use the invasion as a means to install a pro Russian puppet government then pull back out. The bear will go back to its den and the west will slowly move back to business as usual as the Europeans are wholely dependent on Russian oil (as we have become, Russia is the #3 supplier of American oil behind Canada, Mexico and ahead of Saudi Arabia).

To Putin himself there are many pundits talking about how his demeanor has changed in the last year, becoming more aggressive, obliviously, but not just against his neighbors. He is becoming much more aggressive to his own parliament and government puppets. Like a dictator feeling internal pressure and lashing out. This is very dangerous considering he is a nuclear power. Best outcome this works out like the Afghanistan invasion did for Brezhnev.

Last edited by Kevin J.; 02-24-2022 at 02:35 PM.
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Old 02-24-2022, 02:44 PM
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Only a madman would even consider to do this. I pray for the people on both sides who are dying from this insanity.
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Old 02-24-2022, 02:53 PM
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Jag that just may be the point. He always was a mad man but recently he seems like he just doesn’t give a damn and fears no one. This may be due in part to reasons not to be discussed here.
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Old 02-24-2022, 03:10 PM
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I think the final out come will be Putin will use the invasion as a means to install a pro Russian puppet government then pull back out. The bear will go back to its den…..
Of course that sounds awfully similar to our plans regarding Iraq in 2003. Didn’t work out. And there we did remove a regime that actually was as bad as Putin tries to make the Ukrainian government sound, and most Iraqis did indeed feel liberated, and we did try to install democracy. We still mucked it up so badly that we had to keep fighting into the next decade.

As I said above about the survival chance of plans ….
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Old 02-24-2022, 03:22 PM
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We will do nothing meaningful.
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