My title pretty much says it. Cant belive I am the first to bring it up this morning.

I can't comment without taking this thread down the political rabbit hole............................................

The North is again trying their best to provoke a war. Sooner or later, the South will have to take action - they cannot any longer rely on the US for real support. The most we'll do is send the Secretary of State over to straighten their butts out.

Personally I just think North Korea is a sword rattler. The guy acts just like a little kid.

I do not think there is much threat of a war there. Russia will not back them with equipment in a war. And China will not invade over the river again like they did before.

North Korea is a very small and very poor country. All their military assets are antiquated and centralized in where they are physically located. We could bomb North Korea into submission in no time at all.

The threat from North Korea is not war. The threat from North Korea is us allowing those idiots to sell nuclear technology to the radicals around the world. As well as nuclear materials. We should take the nuclear programs out in Iran and North Korea immediately as far as I am concerned. Instead we are supporting a puppet government in Afghanistan. That was the main problem in S. Vietnam. There was no political or national will in S. Vietnam, and there is none in Afhanistan. Just no structure to support.

Russia won't care because they have no skin in the game. And we owe China too much money for them to rattle any swords.

China and North Korea are "paper tigers". But with China that is going to change. And I am afraid we are going to find that out over the next 20 or so years if we keep buying from them, and supplying them with a market and money for their cheap goods. Did you notice how they laughed at Obama at the G-20?? IMO. Tom.

No war appearing in my crystal ball.

But the ball also seems to be showing me that North Korean reactors will soon be subject to the same mysterious process control glitches that have adversely affected Iranian reactors in recent months.

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David Wilson

Sir.
Are you sure the war we were in in the 1950's is officially over?
Bill@Yuma

I had a close friend, now deceased, that fought in korea. When he came home his home town had a party for him and another local boy that came home.
Leon kind of crashed his own party. They wanted him to give a speech. (No doubt everyone thought he was going to give the usual chest beating patriotic speech expected.) Leon got up and told them" as far as he was concerned the entire **** hole country wasnt worth one american boy`s life", and sat down!
Now, I belive things are somewhat different as north korea has been pushing the envelope with this nuclear bomb thing.

The Korean War did not end. We are officially in an armistice.
North Korea would not sign a peace treaty.
Fear of war with China precludes decisive action against North Korea, as it did when Truman relieved MacArthur over half a century ago.

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Science plus Art

I agree with most of this except the "Chinese paper tiger" reference. I think N. Korea doesn't want war, but some kind of recognition as a power to be reckoned with. They need assistance and I guess they feel they can coerce it from somewhere. Hell with the money saved on my last 2 years of missed SS COLA increases they could feed 100,000 N. Koreans.

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SOS USA

is it to be war? ..... probability would seem to lean hard toward that outcome.
Will we be involved?
that is a bit less probable than another Korean war due to political and fiscal environment.

now the absolutes ..
will the UN babble at eachother about it?
safe bet.
will North Korea ignore the UN ..you betcha.
will the UN babble at them in a stern voice?
why not .. its never worked before, and if they did things that worked, they'd be out of a job.

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it just needs more voltage

I don't think N Korea does anything without the permission of China. Which makes their current actions all the more interesting.

There has been hostility and skirmishes there since the cease fire was signed in 1953. Almost always instigated by the north. As an answer if we will go to war, probably not. Even though South Korea has been a staunch ally providing troops during the Vietnam War and offering troops for the liberation of Grenada.

Kim Jong Il is pretty much a Pyshcopath, his father Kim Il Song wasn't much better. The goal of the North is to re-unify under communism because it has worked so well for them.

I spent a tour there and found the Korean people very nice and more than willing to defend themselves. The units of the ROK Army I trained with were highly professional and dedicated to keeping their freedom.

I just hope our present government doesn't see fit to leave them high and dry. Like they did to Taiwan

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Stan

N. Korea has no commerce with the rest of the world to speak of. I think the torpedoing of the S. Korean Naval ship a few months ago and the attack today are attempts to open some type of negotiations which will ultimately result in N. Korea getting some assistance through the U.N. I think the government of N. Korea has kept the country so impoverished for years that the common people no longer can keep the government going through taxes, so now the government is trying to get money any way they can whether it be selling nuclear reactors and weapons to the terrorist of the world or terrorizing their neighbors in an attempt to get handouts from the U.N. As far as war goes. If the Chinese would stay out of it N. Koreas antiquated weapons wouldn,t do them much good against a modern S. Korean military.

So many of these problems wouldn't exist if Seoul was just a few miles farther south from the DMV. The fundamental problem, that NK shamelessly abuses, is that nearly the entire city of Seoul is within artillery range of the North. If anything were to ever trigger the North to really start shooting, no matter how quickly we somehow managed to put down those batteries, there is little doubt that they would be able to fire enough well thought out salvos to do extreme damage to one of the most populous, densely packed cities in the world. That leaves the North in the position of being able to do almost anything they want (below a certain threshold) and get away with it because they know neither the South, nor any of their allies (like the U.S.) can take any chance of triggering the North to start shooting. What makes this even worse is that the North quite literally has nothing to loose, they are already living in the Stone Age, what could we possibly do or threaten to make things worse? Not a good situation for trying to make any kind of diplomatic effort.

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"... shall not be infringed."

Go to war (or reactivate the "police action" that never officially ended)? Highly unlikely. I remember in the summer of 1976, several American soldiers, including a 2nd or 1st Lt., were on a tree clearing detail in the southern portion of the DMZ, (per terms of the cease-fire), and the North Korean Army made an incursion and attacked them, killing several of our people. I was sure we were going to war, IMMEDIATELY, and went to see my boss (the Brigade Commander) to tell him I wanted to go! Unfortunately, all that happened in retaliation for that atrocity was a "strongly worded reprimand" to North Korea by our State Department weenies delivered through the U.N. Sure made them quake in their boots! If we wouldn't go to war over their killing American service men then, I certainly doubt we'll be over there any time soon over them shelling an island ("disputed" as to which side owns it, as is every bit of land in that region), destroying a few buildings and, unfortunately, killing two ROK troops, especially considering the current conditions in D.C. BTW, I worked with some ROK troops (many years ago), and those guys are stract, and highly motivated! Nothing like living with an aggressive communist neighbor to make one appreciate his freedom. Those guys HATE communists!

I rubbed elbows with some of the South Korean fighters over 30 years ago. My feeling are that if it goes into a full blown attack the south has the will and the means to do it all by themselves, if china stays out. If China jumps in I predict one Red Korea, Washington will let them burn and not lose a bit of sleep over it.

I think if China stays out, in about 2 days the north will see no way to win and start shooting nukes south and east into Japan, if the launchers are not taken out right away. If that happens the present administration will be in a spot like December 7th.

I don’t think they, or anybody lately, with the possible exception of R. Regan has the stones to protect us or our allies.
What do you think the US will do?

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Shoot fast & live long
Warren

My squad leader in 2nd Division was in Korea when the tree cutting incident happened, it was a captain and a lieutenant that were killed. Some extra battalions were deployed to the DMZ and then the tree was cut.

When I was there , Neutral nations such as Sweden and some others were there to settle any problems and mostly they sided with the North. I was stationed at Camp Hovey which is a satalite of Camp Casey, all of which are within range artillery fire from the north.

In the 70's Carter pulled the 7th Infantry Division from the Korean peninsula and when Gen. Singlaub complained he was fired. In the last 10 years the only heavy division we had left was the 2nd and it has been piecemealed out to Ft. Carson. Ft. Lewis and the Afganistan. Our current Prsident was just there and that didn't seem to deter the North

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Stan

And five minutes after that, there will be a nuclear armed Japan... and five minutes after that, there will be a nuclear armed Taiwan.

The Chinese know this and that is the ONLY brake on North Korea. A nuclear armed Japan is a FAR bigger threat to China than even a communist Korean peninsula could ever be to the U.S.

I was there for the first one and now I'm to old to go back for a second time. The North Koreans know that winter is coming and their people are very hungry. This isn't the first time - they like to rattle the sword every time they want something and this time its food for their starving masses. I was also there in 76 when they axed the two army officers. I was a week late in leaving for retirement.

The war has never really ended. It is, in all truth, a civil war. South Korea has become a major industrial nation while the North. a major basket case.
This has been coming for sometime...indeed, inevitable. I used to think China would interviene if it came down to a major exchange. Now I am not so sure. Some have suggested that Pyongyang may even have the blessing of Beijing. Again, I do not rule that out. But I do not see them coming to the North's rescue, either.
While this may be controversial, North Korea has been ruled by a dynasty of psychopaths since the end of WWII who would not hesitate to sacrifice their nation and people for glory and it will not end with the current dictator.
A full scale war will occur there...and it will more than likely end up with nukes being used, especially when the poorly equipped and desperate North get seriously beat back by a superior in every respect South Korean military.
I do not see our current administration becoming involved significantly nor do I see the UN doing even half what they did in the 50's there.
They got their modern nuclear facilities from somewhere....I suspect China.

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The Last Standing Knight

on a lighter side if it is a new korean war will tv make a new MASH series?

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God save the SOUTH

they'd louse it up with a survivor theme

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it just needs more voltage

Lets hope we don’t go to war with N. Korea or anyone else. Through no fault of the brave young man and women who serve our country we haven’t won a war since 1945.

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Always Stay Strong!

In 1953 the U.S. senate ratified a treaty with So. Korea. Basically that treaty said that we would consider an attack on So. Korea as an attack on the U.S. and we would respond. The treaty is still in force. Under the table we also made the deal that if So. Korea would forgo developing nukes, we would insure their safety.

What this administration does, your guess is as good as mine. The Norks are stone crazy. The So. Koreans are now a modern first world nation. Unfortunately, their capitol city, with a population of millions is within arty range of the Norks

One B-2 could solve this little issue. I don't think the North wants to play that game. Don't we already give them assistance so they won't build nukes?

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Richard Gillespie
FBINA 102

The British and French gave Germany the Sudetenland so that they wouldn't invade the rest of Czechoslovakia and Poland. How'd that work out?

Can you cite an instance in the history of mankind where a bully stopped being a bully when he was able to get what he wanted by BEING a bully?

The underlying situation will only be resolved by shooting. The question is whether that shooting will be confined to the presidential palace in North Korea or whether it will be much wider.

"One B-2 could solve this little issue."

I don't think so. The North's several THOUSAND large artillery pieces are really well dug in, in caves and very thick bunkers. They are well stocked with chemical munitions. They are mostly in range of Seoul. We, us and the South, don't have the means to take all of them out, let alone in time to keep Seoul from being destroyed.

I think others have nailed it; the North is ruled by nutcakes that do stuff like this to get aid from the rest of the world. Several years ago, their rice crops failed and a lot of N Koreans starved to death. They spend so much of what little they have on their military and weapons development they have nothing else and don't really care about their own people.

We as a nation don't have the fortitude to go after Osama, let alone KJI. China doesn't even have to fire a shot to win against us. They just have to quit funding us.

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Where's my dad's America?

Hmm. Cmort... Cutting the head off the snake... I like that. But, the artillery in caves on top of Seoul is true, as you know. I think those guys are programmed to just start firing when the SHTF.

Evacuate Seoul?? Now there is a nightmare.

I dunno. I guess either 1) same ol same ol, 2) nuke 'em, or 3) a very subtle, human approach. Not humane. Human. Guys on the ground. But that would be mighty hard.

Bullseye

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Five screws and 3-1/2 inches.

The anoited son's picture was on the news. He looks like the next candidate for "Biggest Loser" diet show. Are you sure the Norks are starving. The ruling family hasn't missed a meal.

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S&WHF 366

The Chinese position is actually somewhat complicated. Eventually they will want N. Korea's government to collapse. This will allow the Chinese to move in and gain a bit of territory. They just don't want this right now. It would lead to problems currently. Unless of course the N. Korean population were reduced greatly...

The N. Koreans have maybe one or two crudely functioning nuclear weapons. It'll kill some people, but so will conventional artillery.

Getting spare parts if you drive a Kia might become a problem though.

I once attended a briefing in South Korea at which it was stated that the DPRK Army had more artillery on the DMZ at the time (1981) than the United States Army HAD.

My optimal solution doesn't involve any direct action by us OR the South Koreans.

It involves the Chinese having a heart to heart with a senior North Korean general. Shortly thereafter, a guard goes "crazy" at a state banquet, tragically killing Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un, and anybody likely to back them during a coup. The Chinese move in to maintain "order" and to ensure that half of North Korea doesn't end up in Manchuria as refugees. The aforementioned North Korean general is then "democratically elected" Premier of North Korea, which is thereafter humorously referred to in private by the Chinese leadership as "Manchukuo".

Chinese businessmen with government ties immediately set up a vast assemblage of exploitative factories in North Korea. North Korean workers flood those businesses, making half the average wage of a Chinese worker (and 1/10th that of a South Korean worker) and think it's heaven on earth.

Did you ever see a picture of Mao when millions were starving to death during the "Great Leap Forward" induced famine?

Mao specifically exempted his household from the draconian food rationing he imposed on everyone else and his children were specifically instructed not to speak about what the family ate at home.

Actually, what led to the starvation of ~ 35 million Chinese during the 1961 - 1963 famine, was not primarily poor agricultural management caused by the collective farm system, but rather, Mao's conscious decision to sell food to the Russians in exchange for weapons factories, and most importantly, access to nuclear weapons. China exploded its first A-bomb in October, 1964. Without the food sales to the Russians, there would have been no famine. Jung Chang documents this in her book, Mao: The Unknown Story.

All I is know is that the Chinese cannot afford to have this maniac and his family loose on their northeastern border. It is not in the Chinese interest to have a militarily energized Japan, and continued North Korean shenanigans will push the Japanese towards an expanded role for their Self Defense Force, something Beijing very much does not want.


Bullseye

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Five screws and 3-1/2 inches.

Certainly that's the rational analysis, but lots of powerful people have done really stupid things, like Stalin's slaughter of the Red Army and his subsequent hobbling of it immediately prior to Barbarossa.

For whatever reason, the Chinese are seemingly wedded to a Korea policy which to a reasonable person appears wildly at odds with China's self-interest, both short and long-term.

Other than Alzheimer's or insanity, the only reason I can think of is that the Chinese know something about the DPRK that actually makes them AFRAID of them. The only thing I can think of is that Kim Jong Il has told the Chinese that anything other than enabling by the Chinese will result in some insane act manifestly harmful to China, be it a nuclear attack on South Korea or Japan, a nuclear attack on China, or a "Mariel boatlift" style opening of the floodgates of refugees into Manchuria. The Chinese know Kim and know he's a stone freak, equal parts Stalin and "Little Nicky" Scarfo.

The Chinese don't want to do ANYTHING. Any one of those things would MAKE them do SOMETHING and something BIG. China only wants to act to advance China's interests, and with NO risks or downsides. North Korea is nothing BUT risks and downsides.

Unfortunately for the Chinese (and everybody else sane), the Götterdämmerung in North Korea is going to come, no matter WHAT they do. Their current course of action is only going to ensure the most extreme consequences for them and everyone else.

Hey, THIS is interesting: Maps: Shelling of Yeonpyeong Island by North Korea - Map - NYTimes.com

In the small print it notes that the South Koreans were firing artillery in the area before the North Koreans lit up Yeonpyeong Island. Do I sense a little provocation going on, perhaps?


Bullseye

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Five screws and 3-1/2 inches.

I'm sure that's what the Michael Moores, Jimmy Carters and Ward Churchills would have you believe.

Of course given that the North Koreans just sank a South Korean ship, they would have been justified in firing directly at the North Korean mainland.

The North Koreans have no more right to shell a South Korean island because the ROKs held artillery practice which didn't directly affect North Korea, than you would have to shoot into your rural neighbor's living room because he was shooting at targets in his backyard.

Of course, the fact that the North Koreans themselves aren't pushing the "artillery drill" story is proof positive of its irrelevance.

its far more complicated than that.
so many things are intertwined it can fry your mind sorting it out.
bottom line is we cannot allow south Korea to fall for any reason.
Korea manufactures at least some of the components in almost every single electronic device in current manufacture. without em our commerce based economy tanks hard.
furthermore, a well preserved south Korea must only be achieved without kicking China in the teeth in the process. as offensive to our sensibilities as that may be .. again, we don't make things anymore, we just sell things .. we are dependent upon both of these nations.
How we got there .. yada yada yada ... same old rant of wall street selling us out to the lowest bidder.
this issue must be resolved exactly in the right way or we are really headed for a third world USA

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it just needs more voltage

We have a wimp in the White House and a lot of wimps in Washington. I doubt that we will do more than just say that we condemn the North Koreans.

Don't think they are trying to provoke a war as much as provoking a "pay-off" in food, fuel and economic aid not to start a war. They've done it before and has always seemed to work.

On the other hand, the entire country is on the verge of complete economic, social and political collapse. Perhaps the current regime wants to go out with a "bang" and take as much of South Korea with them as possible!

Kim Jong Il is ABSOLUTELY the last person on the face of the earth of whom I would say, "Nah, he wouldn't do THAT. It would be crazy..."

I thought perhaps they envisioned a "Mouse that Roared" scenario-they attack South Korea, we join in, the North loses then receives foreign aid.

The problem with this scenario is that after you kill upwards of a 100,000 civilians in Seoul and the surrounding areas, there's no outcome that doesn't involve the destruction of North Korea as a country and the death of the Kim FAMILY.

I firmly believe that Kim Jong Il is out of touch with reality, but not THAT out of touch. If he sets things off, it's probably going to be his Fuehrerbunker moment. If he does it, it'll either be because he thinks he can WIN, or because he know's he's going down regardless. If he thinks he's going to be deposed, I haven't got the SLIGHTEST doubt that he'd try to take as many North Koreans, South Koreans, Japanese, Chinese and Americans with him as he possibly can.

I wonder if the average Mr. or Mrs. N. Korean has any idea of what goes on in the south. Or for that matter anywhere else in the world. I doubt they have access to the "decadent" news or info from the west. Is all they know the stories of "the great victories" of the '50's as interpreted by grandpa N. Korean?

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SOS USA

If I'm not mistaken, all of their radios get ONLY government approved stations.

When I was in South Korea in '80-'81, we were told that North Koreans were taught that Kim Il Sung had PERSONALLY raised EVERY animal in the Pyongyang Zoo. Every bus there supposedly had a lace pillow on the seat behind the driver. That was "Kim Il Sung's seat". You REALLY didn't want to sit in that seat...

It's not a country. It's a cult.

So Kim is on TV there almost as much as Obama is here.

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SOS USA

XXXXXXXX

NOPE, at least not in the sense of troops on the ground dug in and squad against squad.

The vast majority of NK's military is soldiers with semi-auto rifles and a few bullets. Many of his "million man army" are old folks much older than most here.

If we/they did "fight", it would have to be missle, air and naval battle and that would be short lived.

There are only a few sustainable avenues that the North can come into the South. And take it from a man that used to have 6 detatchments of "listening posts" up on the DMZ and flew from Camp Humphreys 3 - 4 times a week, the odds of any company sized unit getting past the 1000's of 155's dug into the mountains, the sets of 5 around every little village.............you would say no. Plus, the rice fields must be frozen solid for his vehicles to move on. Bridges and roads would certainly be one of the first things the South took out and it would be an accordian effect from that point back towards the north. Pretty easy picking for the south's jets and helo's.

I spent 11 of my 24 years in Korea. I worked with some of the finest korean soldiers/marines and naval senior NCO's you could ever want to meet. I was priviy to "stuff" .

Without out side help, NK cannot sustain a war over a week. It's vehicles would be out of fuel, no repair parts, jets (those of which were still flyable) would be grounded. Probably many NK pilots would eject over SK soley for the purpose of being captured and treated better than their commanders and leaders treat them. NK military is lead by fear. Fear of being killed or family members being put in prisons. The prison system in NK is unbelievable. No doubt the NK people would like to have a war, just so they could be free, but the NK leadership know's they would have to learn to speak better Chinese if they did jump off the deep in.

It's getting cold north of the 38th now. His people are going to be cold and hungy this winter. We'll off load some rice and potatoes, a few latest block busters and a few big screens and it will be over till next fall.

But in closing I offer this..................SK and the US know there is a leardership change about to take place in NK. They know the propensity of the north to do stupid things when they have military training exercises close to the borders. I'm not saying they don;t have the right to do it, but proceed with caution from lessons learned. I think it has been a photo op for the north to gain national attention shortly after they bragged of their soon to be nuclear status.

While father and son are as crazy as a run over dog, they aren't stupid. An all out war (and the next one will be) would most certainly mean the de-throning of the Kim Dynasty.

amen.........

SC

THEY can't change the channel...