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09-18-2014, 09:49 PM
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Powder..... I shouldn't be.....
I shouldn't be shocked or disappointed, but I've been waiting patiently for 2 years with this powder thing. I was just shopping online for pistol powders and after checking about a dozen vendors, everything (literally) is 'out of stock'. I have powder to do me for a good while, but I still want Unique and Bullseye and was hoping things were easing up a bit since some people have reported having powders available in their areas. Does anybody have any feel for why this situation isn't getting any better???
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09-18-2014, 10:30 PM
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It's crazy...I haven't seen pistol or shotgun powder in a brick and mortar store around here in at least 2 years. I end up shopping online and buying it with as much other stuff as I can to offset shipping and hazmat. I am seeing reasonable prices online at big stores when I can find it, but auction sites are out of control. I won't buy from scalpers they can pound it. Check out the link below...they are building a new Cabela's here it's just crazy.
Long lines form early for Cabela's opening in Tualatin | Local & Regional | KATU.com - Portland News, Sports, Traffic Weather and Breaking News - Portland, Oregon
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Last edited by ageingstudent; 09-18-2014 at 10:34 PM.
Reason: typo
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09-18-2014, 10:53 PM
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Sportsmans on 185th out in hillsboro has powder every now and then. I picked up some red dot, bullseye and trailboss.
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09-18-2014, 11:00 PM
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Seems to me its getting a bit better, not good but better..
Been seeing some in the stores again here and there, and maybe I've just been lucky lately.. but it seems better..
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09-18-2014, 11:09 PM
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Pistol powder has been a problem for a long time and when it's available you have to buy enough online to offset the hazmat fee or it's cost prohibitive. If you search Gunbot.net daily you can sometimes get a deal and they had Bullseye up there last week but they rarely have Unique.
Last edited by fyimo; 09-18-2014 at 11:10 PM.
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09-18-2014, 11:11 PM
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Interesting. Powder was quite available for me 2 years ago. It became scarce out here in December of 2012.
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09-18-2014, 11:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redcar
Sportsmans on 185th out in hillsboro has powder every now and then. I picked up some red dot, bullseye and trailboss.
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I keep missing it there. The problem is I work full time and can't get by every day. Gotta use online to get my powder for sure. I've gotten good at loads with vihta vuori and accurate powders...any port in a storm. Bi mart used to always have red dot cheap but haven't seen it there long time.
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Last edited by ageingstudent; 09-18-2014 at 11:45 PM.
Reason: misspelled vihta vuori get off me
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09-18-2014, 11:59 PM
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Around here in Ky, powder is relatively easy to come by. The only thing I haven't found that I've wanted is Bullseye but I think that's the case for just about everybody.
I have speculated on this issue with a fellow chemist and friend of mine (Ben Hutcherson, he's on here too) and have came up with a hypothesis that I believe in part explains it. Powder production is on some level random, when they start off with a recipe depending on reaction conditions, the properties of the starting materials, humidity, temperature, etc. they can get one of several powders as products. Additionally, much like CPUs, the resultant product is binned by quality and properties into various grades and only the best become the powders we as reloaders purchase. So making large quantities of our canister grade powders is difficult.
So here's the gist of our hypothesis. Some powders such as bullseye are likely precursors to other powders. For example, Unique based on GC-MS analysis is essentially bullseye with some nitrogen compound that is likely a burn retardant. This makes sense since essentially all powders are simply differing concentrations of a relatively small set of compounds. So it would be practical to have a synthesis roadmap that starts with a set of precursers powders {X,Y,Z...} which undergo many other steps to provide the variety of powders we have available. Therefore if we assume that powder production was essentially at peak capacity a few years ago, the demand for powder across the board poses a problem. In many cases to produce more of powder Y requires producing and doing something to some powder X reducing the amount of it that makes it to market. I can't help but conclude this is one reason why of the alliant powders bulleye seems to be the last one that will become available. Also, the FBI database of powders has various entries for Bullseye that are very similar in composition, likely various products that come from the bullseye production process which are used by OEM ammo makers, so the increased ammo production likely impacts this as well.
Also, after speaking to a local gun store which recently became an alliant distributor, it looks like the supply chain is undergoing / undergone reorganization so maybe some regions that once had easy access to powder from the manufacturer may not now. Of course this is speculation, but as a chemist I think it is a reasonable explanation, at least to some degree.
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09-19-2014, 12:22 AM
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The store I go to for most of my reloading stuff has had powder for over a year now. For a while it was just slower burning pistol powders like H110 and IMR4227, but recently I've bought Bullseye, Red Dot, and 800X, not to mention rifle powders like H4831 and IMR 4895. Their selection is better every time I go in there. Lots of primers, and the bullet selection is slowly coming back. They even had bricks of .22 a while back!
For you guys in the Portland or SW Washington area, it's The Gun Shop in Longview. I drive an hour and 20 minutes to get there. I'm usually passing through on business, but sometimes it's my only destination. Occasionally there's a screamin' deal on firearms, too. It's definitely worth the drive.
Also in Longview, Bob's selections have been getting better, and there's also a new Sportsman's Warehouse, but I haven't been in it yet.
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09-19-2014, 01:14 AM
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I'm on the SE coast.......
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertJ.
The store I go to for most of my reloading stuff has had powder for over a year now. For a while it was just slower burning pistol powders like H110 and IMR4227, but recently I've bought Bullseye, Red Dot, and 800X, not to mention rifle powders like H4831 and IMR 4895. Their selection is better every time I go in there. Lots of primers, and the bullet selection is slowly coming back. They even had bricks of .22 a while back!
For you guys in the Portland or SW Washington area, it's The Gun Shop in Longview. I drive an hour and 20 minutes to get there. I'm usually passing through on business, but sometimes it's my only destination. Occasionally there's a screamin' deal on firearms, too. It's definitely worth the drive.
Also in Longview, Bob's selections have been getting better, and there's also a new Sportsman's Warehouse, but I haven't been in it yet.
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It sure ain't that way on the SE coast.
PS Proximity to Canada may have something to do with it.
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09-19-2014, 06:25 AM
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I like Clays, and HP38. Can't find them. SO... recently bought Bullseye, Unique, and Blue Dot. (sold B.D.) You are lucky to find something even in limited quantities. S.I.B.I. see it, buy it! Bob
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09-19-2014, 06:25 AM
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Well I haven't been seeing it locally up here in So. Maine. One of our large Trading Posts had a batch of W231 and HP-38 a couple weeks ago, but it didn't last long. First I have seen either of those at a retail store in about 2 years. A LGS near where I work has WST in (2lb jugs and a 4lb left), but at $126 OTD for 4lbs of WST is a little much for me. They also had H110, but it was $28.99 a lb. and I didn't need any.
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09-19-2014, 12:20 PM
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Getting a bit better (maybe).
Was in Milwaukie (PDX suburb) earlier this week and a small shop there had Bullseye, Unique, 2400, and a couple dozen other types in stock as well as .22LR.
Not being the greedy type, I happily limited myself to 2 pounds of Bullseye, leaving some for others.
$28 per pound.
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09-19-2014, 01:22 PM
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Alliant products I've seen and bought.
Red Dot and 2400
I've seen Blue Dot but haven't bought any.
This is ALL of the Alliant pistol powders I've seen in two years.
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09-19-2014, 02:44 PM
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It's just demand. Think about it. With the internet, there can be literally 100K+ shoppers looking at the same time. A big order comes in say 100 8# jugs of one powder. Even if you limit buyers to 1 each, that is a whopping 100 buyers. The other 90900 are left hanging. Throw in the powder companies schedule of production for all the diff powders, you are going to have shortages. Now add in lessons learned, reloaders are no longer satisfied buying 1# here or there, they want 8# min purchases so they don't get caught short next time. Even more shortages, a vicious cycle.
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Last edited by fredj338; 09-19-2014 at 02:45 PM.
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09-19-2014, 03:04 PM
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09-19-2014, 09:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertJ.
Also in Longview, Bob's selections have been getting better, and there's also a new Sportsman's Warehouse, but I haven't been in it yet.
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I went to the new Sportsman's Warehouse and picked up a 4 lb container of Win 231! I was in Heaven! I've even found .22's there!
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09-19-2014, 11:06 PM
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Couple of the lgs here have had various pistol powders in stock. I buy atleast a pound every time I stop. Some times two. Even stuff I don't normly load.
Now 22lr on the other hand, that **** is hard to find.
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09-19-2014, 11:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GyMac
I went to the new Sportsman's Warehouse and picked up a 4 lb container of Win 231! I was in Heaven! I've even found .22's there!
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Should have bought two!!
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09-20-2014, 12:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GyMac
I went to the new Sportsman's Warehouse and picked up a 4 lb container of Win 231! I was in Heaven! I've even found .22's there!
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Rats!! The SW up here in Tacoma area, (Puyallup) did not get anything new this week. Though we do usually get a little .22 every other week, or so.
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09-20-2014, 12:52 AM
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Absent Comrade
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anyone wanting any of the hodgdon clays powders, don't expect to any until at least late fall or later. don't know for sure if the plant in Australia is producing yet after the explosion last year.
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09-20-2014, 03:00 AM
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Moderator SWCA Member Absent Comrade
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Quote:
Originally Posted by perrazi
anyone wanting any of the hodgdon clays powders, don't expect to any until at least late fall or later. don't know for sure if the plant in Australia is producing yet after the explosion last year.
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I have a pound and a half left but I have not loaded anything with it in about 2 years. For me it just doesn't meter well with the low charge weights associated with the target loads I used it for. I went back to W231 instead.
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09-20-2014, 06:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by perrazi
anyone wanting any of the hodgdon clays powders, don't expect to any until at least late fall or later. don't know for sure if the plant in Australia is producing yet after the explosion last year.
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According to Camp Perry attendees Clays won't be available until next yea--as indicated by vendor booth. So ration accordingly.
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09-20-2014, 01:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fredj338
Should have bought two!!
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I would have, but they only had the 4# left. I was looking for an 8 but that one went earlier in the day. My wife actually talked me into checking. I didn't think there'd be a chance.
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09-20-2014, 03:23 PM
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The LGS has a lot of alliant pistol powder now. MIA: 231, AA2,AA5.
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09-20-2014, 04:22 PM
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I also hoped that by now powder would be easier to get. Got a ib. of tight group last month at the range. Still hard to find.
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09-20-2014, 04:54 PM
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I think technically that's true....but...
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmitc06
Around here in Ky, powder is relatively easy to come by. The only thing I haven't found that I've wanted is Bullseye but I think that's the case for just about everybody.
I have speculated on this issue with a fellow chemist and friend of mine (Ben Hutcherson, he's on here too) and have came up with a hypothesis that I believe in part explains it. Powder production is on some level random, when they start off with a recipe depending on reaction conditions, the properties of the starting materials, humidity, temperature, etc. they can get one of several powders as products. Additionally, much like CPUs, the resultant product is binned by quality and properties into various grades and only the best become the powders we as reloaders purchase. So making large quantities of our canister grade powders is difficult.
So here's the gist of our hypothesis. Some powders such as bullseye are likely precursors to other powders. For example, Unique based on GC-MS analysis is essentially bullseye with some nitrogen compound that is likely a burn retardant. This makes sense since essentially all powders are simply differing concentrations of a relatively small set of compounds. So it would be practical to have a synthesis roadmap that starts with a set of precursers powders {X,Y,Z...} which undergo many other steps to provide the variety of powders we have available. Therefore if we assume that powder production was essentially at peak capacity a few years ago, the demand for powder across the board poses a problem. In many cases to produce more of powder Y requires producing and doing something to some powder X reducing the amount of it that makes it to market. I can't help but conclude this is one reason why of the alliant powders bulleye seems to be the last one that will become available. Also, the FBI database of powders has various entries for Bullseye that are very similar in composition, likely various products that come from the bullseye production process which are used by OEM ammo makers, so the increased ammo production likely impacts this as well.
Also, after speaking to a local gun store which recently became an alliant distributor, it looks like the supply chain is undergoing / undergone reorganization so maybe some regions that once had easy access to powder from the manufacturer may not now. Of course this is speculation, but as a chemist I think it is a reasonable explanation, at least to some degree.
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If Bullseye is a precursor for other powders, why make something else out of it when there is NO Bullseye in the chain for years? And unless they've forgotten how to make powder there's no reason why they can't make enough good stuff to sell. Unless, like so many other manufacturing processes, they've put it in the hands of inexperienced people that don't know their jobs like their predecessors did. Still, why are ALL companies in dire straits to produce good product? And, if a supply reorganization is the reason for not seeing powder in two years, it is about the most snafued reorganization I've seen in 59 years.
There is something very fishy about this. It would be hard to get around anti trust laws, but it's almost like the companies have conspired to limit supplies (in spite of what Chris Hodgdon says) to raise the prices. Maybe they are filling warehouses with powder instead of selling it.
Take primers for instance. They were impossible to find. Then they were scarce and expensive. But now primers have been everywhere for a long time because the market adjusted itself.
And Speer bullets must have secretly gone out of business. I haven't seen their stuff in 2 years either. Hornady seems to be able to deliver bullets. I haven't seen much Sierra stuff either. I just need bullets for targets and plinkers, Not partitioned bullets for killing rhinos.
Well, I'm really running my yap here and it's not doing any good at all to alleviate the situation.
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09-20-2014, 05:04 PM
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The more popular rifle powders are almost impossible to get as well. Last time I was at the indoor range I saw a couple of containers of IMR4895 on display, I asked if they actually had any in stock, he went to the back to check and to my surprise they did, I picked up 3 or 4 and the price wasn't too bad either. I have heard about IMR4895 being in stock in the last two years but this is the first time I have seen any.
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09-20-2014, 06:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rwsmith
If Bullseye is a precursor for other powders, why make something else out of it when there is NO Bullseye in the chain for years? And unless they've forgotten how to make powder there's no reason why they can't make enough good stuff to sell. Unless, like so many other manufacturing processes, they've put it in the hands of inexperienced people that don't know their jobs like their predecessors did. Still, why are ALL companies in dire straits to produce good product? And, if a supply reorganization is the reason for not seeing powder in two years, it is about the most snafued reorganization I've seen in 59 years.
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No, I think the reason is there is increased demand but that begs the question why not make more canister grade powder? I don't think it's inexperience or the like, but rather the equipment just can't be turned up to 11 to make more powder and making polymers with tight tolerances is not trivial even for experienced chemists, there is just too much stochastic behavior to do reproducibly. Like with fablabs at intel, they know what they are doing but only the top 1% of the silicon makes it into the equivalent of canister grade CPUs, and a fab lab is about as controlled of an environment you can get. Now, powder seems to be harder to find in some regions than others, much much harder. Here in Ky, I can find just about everything I need. The geographic distribution of powder availability, is to me, the strangest part of the powder shortage.
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09-20-2014, 07:43 PM
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Is there REALLY more demand now than there was 3 years ago?
Or are we just hearing the crying of unfed mouths?
The amount of propellant and bullets used was at a rate that could
be pretty much continuously supplied for years.
I can't believe that filling that pipeline back up again takes even more years.
Given the "government" we now have, it's enough for even a diehard old cynic to start thinking about a conspiracy.
Someone is paying the powder and bullet makers more than they
can get out of us or we would be seeing mass quantities.
This isn't a matter of supply and demand. It's a matter of distribution.
If we knew where it all is going instead of where it used to, we would not be having this discussion.
I'll get the next round at the bar.....
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Nemo
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09-20-2014, 07:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by novalty
According to Camp Perry attendees Clays won't be available until next yea--as indicated by vendor booth. So ration accordingly.
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Yes, Clays is made by ADI (Australian Defense Industries) which is rebuilding their plant. Nothing coming from them until late this year or next year. You won't see any Universal or HP-38 either. Go to their website, It's all there.
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Last edited by LostintheOzone; 09-20-2014 at 08:05 PM.
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09-20-2014, 09:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ageingstudent
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I was there Friday and it was still madness. All 357mag ammo gone all pistol powder gone, I did get a brick of sm rifle primers and sm pistol primers (last one they did have mag primers (1) left) on sale 20% off though. Got the last Garmin 62s for $189 and had to ask about that because they had pulled it from the display but managed to get to the right person. Traffic being directed by multiple attendants etc. CRAZY
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09-20-2014, 10:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redcar
Sportsmans on 185th out in hillsboro has powder every now and then. I picked up some red dot, bullseye and trailboss.
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Bullseye here in E.Ky. is a thing of the past lately, but I did get another can of Reddot this week. I like Bullseye better but Red dot is awful close to same charges.
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09-20-2014, 11:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemo288
Is there REALLY more demand now than there was 3 years ago?
Or are we just hearing the crying of unfed mouths?
The amount of propellant and bullets used was at a rate that could
be pretty much continuously supplied for years.
I can't believe that filling that pipeline back up again takes even more years.
Given the "government" we now have, it's enough for even a diehard old cynic to start thinking about a conspiracy.
Someone is paying the powder and bullet makers more than they
can get out of us or we would be seeing mass quantities.
This isn't a matter of supply and demand. It's a matter of distribution.
If we knew where it all is going instead of where it used to, we would not be having this discussion.
I'll get the next round at the bar.....
===
Nemo
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Well, if you look at the statistics of gun ownership it reached a peak at 47% around 2012 (according to Gallop poll), 6% over the 2011 rate. I don't find it coincidental that this peak occurred at the same time that most of us trace the shortage back too. So we not only have a larger number of percent gun owners but also many more gun owners in absolute terms since 47% of the 2012 population is much more than say the 40% of the 2005 population. I also think that from articles present in popular gun magazines, forum activity and such that reloading interest has increased as well. So we have more people consuming ammunition, more people reloading. I think it's clear from these factors that the demand for ammunition and components is significantly greater. Also this all occurred post-recession, who knows what impact that had on these companies.
Yes, any rate of consumption is theoretically able to be supplied, but since the investments in capital are significant to increase production, there won't be a rush to increase permanent capacity to meet what is still short-term increased demand. There is no evidence to suggest that there was greats amount of surplus component production earlier either and that makes economic sense too, why make more than you can sell. Of course the argument to suggest excess supply is that it was always available, but on a first-order approximation, that only shows that supply > demand, but not the magnitude of the difference. If people are paying more to change the distribution, that is supply and demand.
Additionally, our government couldn't cover up watergate... if they can't do that, they can't cover much up at all.
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09-20-2014, 11:02 PM
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I've been buying Red Dot as a replacement for Bullseye.
It works well in that capacity.
Trouble is, in the past month or two, the Dot powders have disappeared.
Guess somebody else found out that the Dots will load any handgun cartridge you can dream up.
Good thing, I found another pound of BE and two pounds of HP-38.
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What would Jim Cirillo do?
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09-21-2014, 11:03 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: NW Oregon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fredj338
It's just demand. Think about it. With the internet, there can be literally 100K+ shoppers looking at the same time. A big order comes in say 100 8# jugs of one powder. Even if you limit buyers to 1 each, that is a whopping 100 buyers. The other 90900 are left hanging. Throw in the powder companies schedule of production for all the diff powders, you are going to have shortages. Now add in lessons learned, reloaders are no longer satisfied buying 1# here or there, they want 8# min purchases so they don't get caught short next time. Even more shortages, a vicious cycle.
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That plus guys without jobs buying everything they can get their hands on and selling it at 3 times the normal shelf price. I saw a guy do that at a big 5 the other day. He wheeled in the parking lot and cut me off at the door and then asked the clerk for 22 and 380. People gotta stop buying from those types. They are an extra link in the supply chain. I wonder how much stuff is never making it to the shelves because it can simply be sold on an auction site for a lot more money. At this point the shortage seems a little artificial and continued panic buying for certain items seems to be prolonging it.
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Trucks and guns.
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09-21-2014, 11:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retired_diver
I was there Friday and it was still madness. All 357mag ammo gone all pistol powder gone, I did get a brick of sm rifle primers and sm pistol primers (last one they did have mag primers (1) left) on sale 20% off though. Got the last Garmin 62s for $189 and had to ask about that because they had pulled it from the display but managed to get to the right person. Traffic being directed by multiple attendants etc. CRAZY
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Haha yes. The outfit I work for has a concrete plant over there and it played hell with their deliveries all day.
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Trucks and guns.
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09-22-2014, 03:16 AM
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Pistol powder
Pistol powder availability is still erratic here too. Actually saw some Bullseye & Unique at one LGS about a week ago. All the Bullseye was gone this weekend but surprisingly they still had several bottles of Unique & only $19.95. Noticed they had some W296 which I haven't seen in a while too so I had to grab one. I4227 seems plentiful so I feed that to my 460.
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Waiting for the break of day
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09-22-2014, 01:23 PM
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Two weeks ago a trip to huge Cabela's store near Baton Rouge , La. turned up primers, large and small pistol and large rifle, 1000 of each. There was some rifle powder on the shelves but not one can of anything that could be used in handgun reloads.
No powder, but I got primers.
I wonder if my grand kids will believe me when I tell them that back in the day you could walk into a gun store and buy all the powder, primers and bullets you wanted. Bulk packs of 22 LR were unlimited and would be put on sale? I doubt it...the crazy old man is just dreaming again telling his tall tales.
Gary
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09-22-2014, 01:54 PM
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Absent Comrade
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Primers are easy to get its the unique, the 2400 gun powder that can't be found.
I should of had many 8lb kegs of the six gun powders I use. Lessons learned if it ever returns to the gun store shelves.
Last edited by BigBill; 09-22-2014 at 02:01 PM.
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09-22-2014, 02:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBill
Primers are easy to get its the unique, the 2400 gun powder that can't be found.
I should of had many 8lb kegs of the six gun powders I use. Lessons learned if it ever returns to the gun store shelves.
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^This. One wonders to where the Unique and Bullseye powders have gone? I still have 2400 left and am very hesitant to use it, lest I can't replace it...
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09-22-2014, 03:17 PM
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Powder shock
I hadn't thought of buying powder for almost 2 years, I had bought a whole bunch when I had some money back then. I knew it was a bit scarce but this weekend I was at the Marlboro gun show and got the shock of my life!
I saw a 5 pound container of Trail Boss and about 10 small containers. I walked over thinking I could pick it up.
I was shocked - $235 for the 5 pounder
and $35 for the small ones.
I am down to 2 cans of TB so I bit the bullet and bought a pound (is it 8 oz for TB?)
All the powder at the show was in the high 20's or low 30's!!!
Also I didn't see any Unique, I am down to 2 pounds.
I was totally shocked didn't realize the price rise
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09-22-2014, 08:25 PM
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Today; Recobs Target Shop in Wisconsin has Bullseye, phone 800-359-4571 and they will ship.
Bullseye $16.69 a pound. I got enough for me and my 3 sons. Very friendly to deal with. The web page shows no Bullseye, but call them they have plenty.
Model 52
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09-22-2014, 08:35 PM
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SSSSSPPPLLLLLLLTTTTTTTT !!!
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"He was kinda funny lookin'"
Last edited by rwsmith; 09-22-2014 at 09:00 PM.
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