I’m trying to read the tea leaves. There are a number of Smiths I’d like to add to my modest collection. I’m concerned that the elevated prices that we are dealing with today will not be representative of what the market will be like should we slip into a recession. The takeaway is sell now, buy later. Any thoughts on this strategy?

8 months since I began this post. Are prices softening now in 2023 that some folks have felt the bite of inflation and layoffs?

I'd say no. I don't see the prices of S&W revolvers going down.

Unless you really need money, I wouldn't.

JMHO YMMV

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BTDT, Got The T-Shirt

S&W revolvers are specialty items and are usually not affected by economic changes.

My opinion worth the price paid:

Smith & Wesson is now experiencing the collector interest once given to Colt. Many being priced out of the pony market have realized that Smith & Wesson is a viable alternative (Ruger to a lesser degree but moving up), and certain models have enjoyed an appreciation seemingly out of proportion to yesterday. Great condition and rare pieces are going to continue to rise. Pre lock blued steel is going to rule.

I have not seen any pause in the Colt market, and I don't expect any in Smith collecting.

If we slip into a recession there will be buyers with disposable income, and that will not change. I personally am far more concerned that inflation will drive prices further up than a recession taking them down.

If you are considering selling models in demand now - they will be in demand later. My crystal ball says you will never buy them back for what you turned them loose for.

I've never been good at predicting the future, all I know is I let some guns go in the past that are worth a lot more now

There will always be a market for the (collectibles) aka pre-lock guns but with gas, food and anything else you can think of going up so much so quick, only certain individuals can afford to stay the course and others will be selling to make ends meet. I believe a buyers market is coming…

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S&W factory revolver armorer

I once got $1,000,000 for a dog. Traded him for two $500,000 cats.

Prices for collectible pieces are likely to increase for the foreseeable future driven by inflation if nothing else. IMO the longer term risk is a change in collector interests and/or politics. How many young folks are buying collectible S&Ws now and how many will in ten years? I'd say buy the guns you like, enjoy them for what they are, but don't buy them as investments. The stock market has historically provided better returns and it appears we have, or are close to, some bargain prices on Wall Street. Good luck.

Jeff
SWCA #1457

This^^^^^^

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USS Brewton FF1086
SWCA#3597

I believe that it is the younger collectors who are driving the price up on pre lock but non P&R guns. The older collectors seem to show little interest in this era , but these are old guns to the younger guys

I also do not see the prices of S&W's coming down. Every one I would like to add to collection, in nice shape and good condition, you have to lay out some cash for. I agree buying for investment is not wise but searching around you can find good enough deals that you will not loose money on reselling. I always make sure, at least in my mind, that I can resell for what I have invested in a firearm. Sometimes it is not hard to convince myself. With the crew I shoot with we all tell each other it will be our kids selling them some day. We will not have to worry what the return is.

Yes, but have to hope they will be knowledgeable when the time comes and not give them away. Otherwise they'll become "deals" to some future collectors. Some of my best ones came after "gramps" or Dad passed and the kids dropped them off at the pawn shop for whatever was offered. Likely the original owners didn't expect their favorites to end up in a pawn shop.

I suspect many here have comparable experiences. Better I think, as the time draws closer, to identify a few keepers for the family and sell the rest keeping pictures and memories to admire.

Jeff
SWCA #1457

With real inflation near 18% guns are worth more than money in a bank account.

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No baby we aint

I suppose the one thing to remember is guns are not investments - they are stores of value. If you buy a Smith and Wesson model "X", and sell it in like condition ten years later you will be generally be returned the same dollar equivalent in ten years.

If you "make" anything on your collection you made your money when you bought it - e.g. underpriced.

The best thing about a store of value is you can go out and shoot it, have fun, and not feel guilty about enjoying your hobby.

But with firearms you don’t have the risk of market crashes. Guns are always valuable in hard times and disasters.

Not exactly the same equivalency-

If you "invested" in a Registered Magnum in 1939 you might get in the neighborhood of $4k-$12k today which beat inflation at 1.25k.

The same $60 invested in the S&P would be valued at 147k.

The "risk" with firearms is your opportunity cost...

Think you need to separate collecting and investing.

Personally, I collect what I like to have and enjoy. There are some high end items that I suppose could be considered investments, but they are also priced in the range where the community of collectors determines the value, not the overall economy.

When it comes to a gun, if it's anything common and in production right now, there is the possibility that several months down the road it will cost less that what you pay now, things are a little on the expensive side, but in the end the amounts we're talking about really are not that much.

FWIW, my SA Hellcat is back up to the price I paid in mid-2020 when guns were scarce, but was around $50 less a few months ago. Of course I bought the thing because I wanted one in my collection, the price swing really isn't that much, and I doubt the thing will ever have it's value go up enough to be an investment grade pistol, although I have had some things accidently become collectable over the years.

Compare the two scenarios in the year 2009 and you needed cash fast .Guns may not make you rich but they are a safe bet

I am very fortunate enough to have a couple daughters and son-n-laws that research everything. I also made a list of what I paid for firearms, what they might be worth and ones to really look into. I know not all are going to make it to the for sale department. Although I have been a avid shooter and hunter for 55 plus years I have only been a member or forum for a short time compared to I consider some very good experts on site that have been here for years. One thing I did request is that items get listed here first and hopefully get picked up by someone that will enjoy them, and I mean shooting them, as I have.

Exactly as I said and later demonstrated with my example - guns are a store of value. Market fluctuation does not alter that fact.

The safe bet as you say is the ability to return your value equivalent into the future which is the textbook store of value definition.

That does not make guns an investment. If there is a need to liquidate for fast cash that is a failure of planning, not of market forces.

I think Burneyr has provided a very good expose on SW values. To paraphrase: You're not gonna get rich, except in rare circumstances, but neither are you going to lose the farm. And you get to enjoy them in whatever way makes you happy.

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Some collect art; I shoot it!

I've never seen prices retreat. If I had been smarter in 1980 I would have bought all sorts of Smith and Wesson and Colts. They were a lot more affordable then.

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S&WHF #946
S&WCA #3824

And I had about a quarter of the disposable income then that I have now. I could not have afforded them back then either.

I think I could find a better vehicle for investment purposes.

They are up due to supply and demand due to covid and many increasing firearms laws. Buy now, they will not go down in value, only up as they are rare now in exc. shape. Even the new classic 29-ones are getting hard to find and selling at same price used as new. I just scored a 1975 M29-2 6.5" 1975 in mint shape. It is even harder to get these in my country. I paid a fraction of what they are going US so pretty happy Ironically this is what happened when Dirty Harry came out in 71' they started selling 3x the retail price at the time. They have never gone back down. IMO you cannot buy a finer and more beautiful .44 around.

I don’t think the OP is asking value because he suddenly has a pile of money that he is looking to invest into something. No need to point out other lucrative investment options. He is buying and adding to his collection and is asking about gun models only.

A most excellent dialogue. Thank you all for sharing your thoughts. My new takeaway is that having a hobby that provides sustained enjoyment over decades without negative financial consequences (like race cars, etc.) is really very desirable and somewhat precious. I personally shoot them, pamper them with exceptional maintenance, and find the mechanical engineering aspects very thought provoking. Good deals are great, but life is short and regrets are avoidable.

Inflation---Deflation means nothing here.....When a Smith comes here to live IT NEVER LEAVES.

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S&W Accumulator

Not very many younger guys buy revolvers anymore.

With the rate of inflation being what it is, and much worse to come, the prices are going up, but the value remains the same.

Say you have two identical Smith and Wesson revolvers.
You sell one tomorrow for the going price. Figure up how many tanks of gas the proceeds from that gun will buy you.
6 months from now you sell the second Smith and Wesson for the going ( and much higher ) price at that time. Figure up how many tanks of gas ( also at a much-inflated price ) the proceeds from the second gun will buy you.

I’ll bet each gun will buy you about the same amount of gas.

Unfortunately wages never keep up with the rate of inflation.
Guns will rarely make you real money as investments, but many of them are good hedges against inflation

So you are saying ,a dog is worth twice as much as a cat.

I am a dog lover, but some here will not agree.

Guns will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no guns......Ben

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Cogito, ergo BOOM!...

This has been my philosophy on why I've bought the guns I have now. It might be nice to have that Registered Magnum that is only two digits off Patton's gun, but if all I could (or would) do with it is polish it and show it to my gun buddies, I'd eventually get tired of it. My goal is to buy those models as nice as I can find, within a price limit I've set for myself, that would make it reasonable to take them out and use them for what they were made for. I've never been interested in anything after P&R, can't afford the no-dash or "Pre" guns, in most cases, so I set my sights on the pristine, but relatively common series magnums of the 60's and 70's. Each one I've bought over the last 4-5 years has been more than the one before it, so I knew I'd better get them before even they were priced out of my reach. It's come to that now, my collection is as complete as it will ever be, unless I run up on one for sale that the seller has no idea what it is. How likely is that, in these days?

So, my advice is to bite the bullet (pun intended), and start saving the sofa change, collecting pop bottles for the deposit, mowing lawns, anything to find the cash to buy what you can find that is on your personal list of the ones to have, before they get priced out of your reach. I retired three years ago, and pick up extra money working with a landscaper friend. Most of what I make (and it is barely over minimum wage) goes into enhancing my collection (translate: buying another gun). Advancing arthritis and increasing prices are effectively putting my gun buying days to rest.

My crystal ball say's to buy more ammo?

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Dave Ramsey Cultist

Well written view point.

Primers would have made a great investment about 3 years ago. Unfortunately, they are too hard to find now to even think about selling them.

Buy low and sell high,,Forget about guns,,Buy ammo and reloading supplies when republicans are in office,,Then dump them on the market when democrats are in office,

Why is it every time someone asks about prices going up and “investing” in guns everyone wants to pile on with stock market advice. I think OP just wanted opinions on WHEN he should buy some guns he wants for his collection. Nothing wrong with wanting the best deal you can get. Are some guns good investments YES! Are all guns good investments NO. Are there investments with better return potential OF COURSE. But OP was not looking to fill an IRA with S&Ws.

Based on this sentence "The takeaway is sell now, buy later. Any thoughts on this strategy?" it appears he really wanted thoughts on selling now in order to buy for less later. Tough call, not too different from "should I buy stocks now or, thinking there may be a recession, wait for them to become less expensive." Mostly a financial risk decision not really specific to S&Ws.

Jeff
SWCA #1457

So what I know about S&W revolver collecting could be written on a post it note compared to most members here. That said I have been buying guns for about 20+ years.

I will echo what others have said. Guns are a good place to store cash and hedge against inflation as a alternative to cash but this is only true if you buy smart and buy the right guns. Lots of todays mass market guns will lose value just like a car and will most likely never return value. Since we are talking S&W Revolvers in the 1961-1980 section the value of these guns has been rising for years. I put many of these guns into the you can't pay too much you can only buy to early category. There are of course exceptions but in general the prices in this era are going up. Values will increase at or near inflation but in the long run they won't beat it if you buy at "market" price. You get "value" you cannot buy at the top of market price. You have to be at mid to low in the range IMHO.

I read the OP's question as someone who is looking to build a collection of quality guns not make and investment so the stock market vs S&W revolvers comparison does not fit. I a strongly in the camp of guns are not good investments vs other things like an S&P mutual fund at the most basic level. As I said before at best they are a hedge against inflation.

The key to buying anything is never pay "market" price unless you have to. The S&W market is still hot but even in a hot market there are deals. My advice to the OP is make a list of your wants. Research recent prices paid. Don't just rely on GB. Many of those values are inflated. Look at forum classifieds not just here. Look at the highs and the lows and determine your buy it now $$ for each item on the list. Shoot for middle to low in the range. By buying in this price range you are setting yourself up for better long term "value" retention and growth.

When one on the list at a price you have determined it palatable buy it. Scratch it off the list and enjoy it. Maybe add a new one to the list. Never impulse buy at a price higher than you have set. Do not let FOMO make you pay more. Even the most coveted S&W revolvers for the most part were made in quantity. Sure there are "raw" small runs or true collectibles but it does not sound like that is what the OP is buying.

This is how I build a collection. It is how I built my Browning HI Power Collection, Sig Collection and 1911 collection. It is how I am building a S&W collection.

I feel like others a recession is not going to kill the S&W market. It will depress pricing some but you are talking about a short term dip. 2-5 years at best IMHO if you look at historical trends. To me there is actually a different ticking time bomb that might be more disruptive to S&W pricing than a recession.

To me the biggest danger to S&W Revolver pricing is the age of the avg high volume collector. Most are older. As they age many of these vast collections will come into the market. Some will be properly curated and sold. As others have said will be dumped at the LGS and sold. I am not trying to prematurely bury anyone but as the boomers get closer to end of life I see lots of these types of collection hitting the market in the same period of time.

Prices are what they are today because there is more demand than there is supply. If the trend continues to tactical plastic, handgun optics and higher capacity less younger buyers will be in the market. With older shooters passing there will be more supply. This happened in the classic car market according to a friend of mine and I can see it happening in the S&W Revolver world.

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Use should dictate gear!

I totally agree. Well said

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213th FBINA

I've purchased and sold a lot of firearms but I can honestly say I've never sold a S&W revolver. I think I have 5 now and I've had a few of those for a very long time.

Prices now on S&W pre locks are inflated like a lot of things. Nobody really knows if the prices will remain inflated or not. My guess is they won't.

Here's the reasoning behind that. Recession is going to grip this country in the next few years. People will lose millions in the stock market and real estate values will plummet. We'll see buying opportunities that we haven't seen in a long time for many things, not just old revolvers.

One of the reasons I have a lot of cash on hand right now. Scary times.

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That's just somebody talkin.

Your losing 9%+ on that cash a year right now. Just saying…

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Use should dictate gear!

Good thread. I would ignore the market fluctuations in collecting and buy and sell as I pleased. It's been my experience that you can often out shop the market fluctuations anyway by finding a few good deals here and there. I sold a bunch of coins in the last recession because I needed the money to make adjustments. I don't think I will ever be able to afford to buy them back. That's just the way it is with collectibles. Doesn't stop me from having fun.

Investment not really; but hard assets tend to hold their own against inflation.... land, gold,silver.....I'd put guns in that group.

I read it on the internet so it must be true.....
In the late 1800 a $20 gold coin would buy you a Colt SAA or a good suit.... about the same today but the $20 one oz gold coin is worth north of $1,950.

Inflation calculator" only goes back to 1913 $1 then $29.20 today

1935 $60 the price of a Reg Magnum today $1,266
1988 $270 the price of a 3" 66...... today $ $660
1989 $370 price of a W. German Sig 220....... today $904

My thoughts exactly... Everyone said when the Plandemic hit and everyone started arming up expecting civil unrest that new gun owners would be trading in those new purchases and the used market would be flooded with cheap, brand new guns... Well, 2 + years later, i have not seen that, and good quality collectibles have gone up several times over the last year still.

I paid more for my Smiths and my one Colt detective special than I ever imagined.

Every once in a while I catch a good deal-

Got a Charter Arms Undercover from the ealry 80's (Stratford CT, no ejector shroud) in great condition for $200 a couple months back.

Got a really nice Taurus 85 Classic (deep-blued with wood grips, pre lock in the hammer) for $400 (taurus in my state are hard to find except the G2 and G3 models due to compliance testing. The roster does not include many that should be on it)

Got a nice mirror polished model 649 .38 special, pre-hillary hole for $600 which I thought was a steal...

Got a model 34-1 .22lr snubnose for $700 in the original box, with paperwork, tools, missing the rear sight, but was a great deal.


But then I paid $700 for a snubnose model 10 (I thought that was a little high, but I haven't seen one locally for a long time)

Paid $900 for my Detective special from 1981 in 95% condition


the market is crazy right now... If I see something I want, I buy it if I don't feel I am getting ripped off.

The market is just so fickle. I never feel like I lose out on Guns - except a Colt Government 80 .380 I had...

Like selling a house, expecting to buy another- you may get a killer sale price, but you may not find what you want, and the prices have just kept going up, AND people are paying the crazy prices. I have seen acouple ratty model 36's got for close to $1000, when I thought they were worth only about $350. K22, going for $1400 when it is not anything crazy... Kit guns in .22lr, 4" barrel, $1000 and up.

Yeah, I know. We were looking to buy a house last year and I was going to use the cash to cover expenses between the time we purchased and when we sold our existing house. That didn't happen so I need to rethink that one. The problem is the 1-1.5% difference in CD's and such isn't enough for me to tie the money up for a year. I'm thinking that money might go into the stock market or real estate when the crash comes, and it's coming. It's just a matter of a short time now. I'm just setting on the sideline waiting for it to happen. During the 08 crash some pretty nice houses (mortgage defaults) were selling for 150K in AZ. I could just pay cash for one of those right now and we could have have a warm sunny place without the WA winters. We love the winters in the SW. Used to spend every winter there with an RV.

ETA;
DJIA dropped 3.5% today. We started the slide in Jan. and it isn't going to stop this year. We'll be lucky if it stops at 30%. Merry Christmas.

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That's just somebody talkin.

Last fall I did exactly what WVSig is now suggesting. I created my list based on holes in my collection I'd like to fill to help me portray the first 50 year history of the Chiefs Special and one of its offshoots.

I had no clue what FOMO meant so I looked it up today.

My list included 17 Chiefs and 2 Bodyguards. I've read about but never seen five on the list, and two others have appeared in old forum threads but they're so rare (yes, I used "that" word) that I'll likely never find one for sale.

Thanks to having a list to follow my buying dried up for nearly six months. Then four of the relatively obscure models recently popped into view. I grabbed all four.

Did I buy for "Fear of Missing Out"? Maybe, in one case. It was the first or earliest or (pick your adjective) Model 36 I'd ever seen. Shipped in September 1958. It's stunning, but it lacked its original grips. Drat, but I knew that before I bought it.

--------------- shift gears ---------------

This thread has been an interesting read. I don't "speculate" on my buys or on sales or on profits. Each one will be what it will be. To steal a phrase from a popular movie, "There is no crying in S&W collecting."

If the economy collapses, which it might, it'll be back some day. I hope I'm still here then, but I can't worry about that or let it drive my life between now and then. I'll enjoy what I have, and I'll not be concerned about what I don't.

As the title of my history report says, "Hail! to the Chiefs."

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Wrangler of stray Chiefs
Bob

Well working in a gun/pawn shop full time, prices of Smiths are not going down, only up..... CONSISTENTLY

I maintain a spreadsheet of my S&W accumulation. In the back of my mind there is always a list of want/need items to fill gaps in: a)time periods; b)serial number ranges; c)specific models and features. My primary focus is N frames pre-war through S-prefix with a smattering of 1990's era J, L, and N frames. I think the newest S&W in my collection is a 329NG from 2008.

Moments before the covid era began in March 2020 I acquired a pair of 629-4's with standard 6" barrels, one square butt and one round, at fair prices (under $800). Nothing special about them except that I had been searching for these for quite awhile, and I'm keen on the 29-5 and -6 and 629-3 and -4. Since then I have witnessed both scarcity and rapid price inflation of all pre-lock S&W revolver models in the local aftermarket.

Going forward, I'll still have my feelers out for opportunities to fill gaps in my collection and/or a reasonable deal for a good N frame that fits my profile. I rarely sell unless upgrading or making room in the safe.

My suggestion (for guns, used vehicles, and real estate) is to know what you're looking for/at, what you are willing to pay, and be ready to buy it when the opportunity arises. Don't go into debt for guns (a decent car or a home is OK). Be selective and don't worry about a decline in value over the short term. As my brother once told me "When in doubt, zoom out." For high-quality desireable firearms and real estate the long term trend, in my brief experience, is generally up. YMMV.

Gila's 629-4 pair_SB and RB.jpg

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Tom in AZ
Respect the Dingbat