Jim,
I agree with your assessment. I can only recall seeing 10 or so of these in auctions or on the forum over the past 6 years that I've been collecting .45 Colt S&Ws. Nearly all of the auctions were Mr. Carroll's. My thinking is that there was probably <100 made, and the 1950 Army in .45 COLT is probably <10-15. That's what excites me about .45 S&W's...they are all scarce to rare in relation to production figures. I also think that there were much less Pre-26 .45acp made than the Catalog suggests.