Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy2525
I don’t always agree with Mr. X, but in the reports he posted, the first study split out the lifetime likelihood of only experiencing a single violent attack, two violent attacks, three violent attacks, etc. It broke those down by decade of age, by race, and by sex (IIRC).
The numbers seem too high to me. In the report, there’s an 80+% likelihood of a 12 year old experiencing a violent attacked in their lifetime. Just my ad-hoc observation, that would seem to be more like 15%. Still too high.
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They are taking base numbers from crime reports. Crime reports are not broken down to individuals by the FBI. They are by numbers per 100,000. Take a group of 99 people, and one LEO all in the same age group. That LEO probably makes several arrests for being assaulted in a period of time, likely 100 over several years. That means the 99 probably did not have any assaults.
Without detailed record keeping like is done on the level of perfection that takes into account all variables polls, and statistics are only as good as they are taken. This has been proven over, and over again with failures by relying completely on them. The drug industry has seen drugs approved after vigorous testing only later to be pulled.
FBI stats are not based on individuals, it is based on crimes reported compared to census data. Want good data that cannot be skewed by false positives, look at cause of death data. A person only dies once so multiple deaths per person is impossible. And that data shows that doctors are more dangerous to the public than the common criminal.