I have not read every post in this thread, but I read the original article that the thread is based upon. I feel it's probably correct. Here in Mexico, Technos Industries (Aguila) and CI are the only two manufacturers that I know of in operation. Most of what they make is exported and probably their factory seconds stay here for the small domestic market. At least, none of the Aguila ammo here ever seems to chamber very well in anything and I remember the stuff we used to get back in Canada from Aguila was not that bad. The "urban myth" in the Gun Clubs down here is that Technos keeps all the factory seconds for the domestic Mexican market. I would believe it. I know the SIG importer for Mexico and he tells me that SIG .22 pistols work fine with any .22 rounds sold in the States, but the Mexican Market stuff is oversized for the chambers.

My .22 Conversion kit works fine with the Mexican stuff because I had the chamber slightly enlarged. Otherwise, it was a jam-ammatic.

Be that as it may: here in San Miguel -- population of around 120,000+ depending on the time of year -- there are maybe 80 people or less who could actually BUY a box of .22 shells over the counter. You have to have a permit for a firearm registered with the Military to buy shells and even then they let you buy only one brick of 500 .22 shells a month. (Only 200 rounds of any centerfire caliber.) You could go from store to store and buy your bricks from each one because they have no way to check -- except there's only one store here in San Miguel that sells shells and even in Celaya, our closest neighbour (Pop. 460,000) there's only 2 stores that sell shells. So you are not going to "stock up" very easily.

I walked by the local store on the way home and they are WELL STOCKED for .22 shells. They have all you could want just sitting there, waiting for someone to come in and buy some at their regular scalper's price of 64.00 dollars (80.00 pesos) a brick. .22 prices here in Mexico have always been high, but I think there's some special tax on them. The Government here is openly "anti-gun" so it would not surprise me.

Anyway, the only shortage here is a shortage of people who are actually allowed to buy the product. I believe there's some truth to the original article that demand might well be higher than supplies can keep up with. I am certainly not suggesting that restricting people's "right to buy" is a good thing. I think it's horrible and has caused a lot of real problems down here. But it is the World I live in.

The weather's great though.

It sure is illegal when done in concert with other companies which is the only way your plan can work.

Now you can sell your widgets for $4 but I doubt you will sell even one which brings up a very basic question and that is why are you in business in the first place.

The thing is, if the backlog with the manufacturers is 2 years, as some execs have stated, then the cost should be rising from them. If they are running 24x7, adding additional shifts, machinery, etc., then the cost should be going up to the distributor. Then, when the distributor is charged more, he will in turn pass those costs on, and it eventually should roll down to the consumer. That would drive costs at all the big box retailers without being collusion. If they don't start to use some type of market factors to curb demand, how will they ever catch up?

Clearly prices are increasing. I have seen Academy and WalMart inching up prices on all ammo. WalMart had increases on the WWB in various calibers a month or so ago.

A manufacturer's rep told me (back in March) that all CCI lines would have increases, and that has been the case for what little I've seen since. Not horrific, but enough to make you realize it happened.

No it hasn't. We sell out damn near every week. We just pay the going rate to our suppliers (several - we are on the phone all the time searching) and mark it up accordingly and limit purchase to two boxes per visit. My guess is that some shops are reluctant to go that extra mile for the measy margin. But it gets folks in the door and we do what we can to keep them coming in.

If WalMart charged $70 a brick folks would grumble all the way to the cash register. And they would sell out.

They are increasing, but not near to the levels as would be needed to put some folks on the sidelines.

You "sell out damn near every week"... but you previously said that there is no shortage and you have had ammo in the store during this whole ordeal. So, it sounds like your store has found the equilibrium price to move the product, but at a rate where you are restocking right as, or soon after, the last piece of stock has been sold. You don't have folks lined up at your counter every morning looking to buy all that they can, right?

Walmart probably would sell it at $70 per brick, but at what rate? I bet it would last longer than the 5 minutes it does now... they might actually have time to put it on the shelf.

The idea isn't to kill demand, but it is to throttle demand back to where it is equal to supply, not 50% higher than supply.

Now, that is all theory... I've been able to get ammo, from Walmart even, quite regularly so I don't really want to see high price increases... but for those complaining about lack of availability, hoarders, etc., it is simply supply and demand, and since supply can't be ramped up, pricing is one way to control demand.

Picked up some 5.56 ammo at Dicks sporting goods yesterday and also a one hundred round box of Winchester super X for 10.00 limit one per customer. They haven't had any 22's for 7 weeks up to yesterday, I usually could count on buying 22's each week there. Thinking that would continue I sold a box of 333's to a friend of mine for 25 bucks right after that the shortage started, go figure !