Russian Ammo BANNED

The ban on Chinese ammo has been in place since 1993. When the current import licenses expire we will have seen the last of the Russian ammo. Hopefully, 2 years is long enough for some companies to build some more factories to take up the slack. I would prefer to see more ammo produced here in the US but if it comes from Mexico, India or some other friendly country that would be good enough.

But for now the ammo shortage just got worse. This is going to cause even more panic buying and it will take longer for prices to come back down.

I always paid extra to get brass case ammo. But all the steel case imports still helped me by exerting a lot of price pressure on brass cased ammo. Even though I rarely shot it I am still sad to see it go.

I think we should write letters to the Russian Gov't asking that Hunter be appointed to the boards of the ammo companies.

Two years is forever in the geopolitical sphere. The only thing that is going to screw things up is if people come off the rails again and panic, buying every piece of ammo they see at any price. Russian ammo isn't going anywhere unless people start buying it like they are never going to make it again.

cmj8591 said:

I think we should write letters to the Russian Gov't asking that Hunter be appointed to the boards of the ammo companies.

Two years is forever in the geopolitical sphere. The only thing that is going to screw things up is if people come off the rails again and panic, buying every piece of ammo they see at any price. Russian ammo isn't going anywhere unless people start buying it like they are never going to make it again.

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The bubble has already burst; steel x39 has jumped from 27 cents a rd, to over 50 cents already.
I was able to get in on some 308 at that price; relative to pre-panic prices that's not too awful bad. But now it's climbing up past 70 cents in a lot of places. I hit the 308 while the x39 guys were scrambling.

This will affect a lot of unexpected calibers, I suspect.
There is a HUGE x39 market, I suspect it's pretty close in size to the 223 market. And you can't swap barrels or uppers on an AK or SKS.
Now the question may become- will Winchester make a run of 300BO, or will they tool up in x39 to cater to this new crowd?

Good Lord People!!!!!

Russian ammo has NOT been banned. Applications for their commercial importation won't be approved for the next year, possibly longer. Nothing about this is remotely "banning" Any current import licenses will be honored as long as they are valid. They usually are good for 2 years. Anything in the pipeline, or anything covered by already issued licenses will still be perfectly legal to import, and will be allowed in.

Since there are numerous import licenses already, and they might start issuing them again in a year, there might not even be a noticeable difference in supply.

Am not really a fan of Rusian product, I wasn't aware of the ban !

Ammo situation will not get better (E-mail from sgammo.com)

This excerpt was in my email yesterday. What it tells me is when the US ammunition makers take up the slack from the Russian import ban, the availability of popular stuff will go down and prices will jump.

When folks say they are glad Russian ammunition is gone think of them when you shoot. The gun control ratchet clicked a few times tighter.

From Sam Gabbert, Owner of SG AMMO:

"There has been a lot of people asking me about the sanctions on Russian ammo imports put in place by the US state department this past week and what it means for the future of ammunition supplies. There will be more clarity in several weeks when we can see the publication of a Federal Register notice expected on September 7, 2021. The state department announcement can be seen at this page - Fact Sheet: United States Imposes Additional Costs on Russia for the Poisoning of Aleksey Navalny - United States Department of State

My Russian Ammo Sanction Opinion - First, I hope you don't 'shoot the messenger' and I'd like to pat everyone on the back and tell them things are going to be okay but that wouldn't be truthful. In my opinion the sanctions are a major game-changer in the ammunition supply chain that is already strained. For the time being and based on what we can see so far, we believe that this will be the effective end of Russian made ammo in the USA as it plays out over the next year or so as import permits expire or are filled to the quantity limits, and in doing so eliminate supply of a huge portion of the ammo in the US commercial market. From what I understand, the USA commercial market consumes around 800,000,000 rounds of ammunition from Russia every year, roughly 800 semi truck trailers worth in a mix of the most popular calibers. For the immediate short term we expect ammo to keep coming in from Russia but I expect the importers to raise prices substantially which is understandable to me given its the end of the lifespan for their business model. The calibers we believe will be most effected are soviet metric calibers like 7.62x39, 5.45x39, and 7.62x54R because there is almost zero available manufacturing capacity for these calibers outside of Russia and what little exists will not make a significant impact in filling the needs of the USA commercial market without Russian ammo absorbing the lion's share. In addition to these calibers, I estimate that the Russians supplied 30% to 40% of the 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger consumed at the shooting ranges across this country, and large portions of the 45 auto, 9x18 Makarov, 30 carbine, 308 Winchester / 762x51, 380 Auto, 300 Blackout and 6.5 Grendel. I see this as a potentially devastating blow to the supply for of 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger, where the reduction in supply from Russia will be difficult to make up in the short term for other manufacturers who have already been unable to keep up with demand this past year. Consumers who have used Russian ammo regularly will have to move on from Russian made ammo to those other products made elsewhere and in doing so absorb the supply and prolong recent shortages. Again this is my opinion, based on my knowledge of the industry after 20+ years experience, and how things play out over time could be different. For me, selling Russian made ammo is about 40% of my business, and while we plan to source as much supply as we can from other sources, we do expect this to have a major negative impact on supply for 7.62x39, 7.62x54R, 5.45x39, 9mm Makarov, 9mm Luger, 223 Rem / 5.56 NATO, as well as the other mentioned calibers."

If you listen you can hear the ratchet click.

Racer X said:

Good Lord People!!!!!

Russian ammo has NOT been banned. Applications for their commercial importation won't be approved for the next year, possibly longer. Nothing about this is remotely "banning" Any current import licenses will be honored as long as they are valid. They usually are good for 2 years. Anything in the pipeline, or anything covered by already issued licenses will still be perfectly legal to import, and will be allowed in.

Since there are numerous import licenses already, and they might start issuing them again in a year, there might not even be a noticeable difference in supply.

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I'm not going to get into an argument with you, but did you read the wording of this?

While it does not implement an immediate ban, there will be no further permits issued for a minimum of 12 months, and they place 4 conditions on Russia before allowing a resumption.
Without plowing into the politics and getting this thread banned- something I want to avoid- 2 of those conditions are highly unlikely to occur.

Also without going into politics; although this is an EO and thus could probably be revoked by the next administration, "cooperating with Russia" seems to be taboo in our politics, and revoking such a restriction would likely be toxic, and thus unlikely to occur.

We understand there's a two year window in place (running from the date of the most recent permit), but some of these calibers are what you'd call "bulk usage". 7x62x39 in an AK, that's some something the average AK owner shoots a box of during hunting season... it's something people shoot hundreds of in a single session. Same applies to the cheaper steel 223, and certainly 5.45 will become an orphan caliber if access to further new ammo is denied.
It may not be your preferred manner of range use, but to act as though it's inconsequential- there are a LOT of folks who do this, it's legal, they like it, and it's in their rights to do it.

Now, something else is in this, which seems to be getting overlooked.
They refer to "firearms and ammunition", "manufactured and stored".
No new-manufactured firearms are allowed anyway, people ignore that.

But- "stored firearms"... THIS could be a serious blow to the Milsurp collecting. The Russians did not destroy opposing arms, they took them, ran them through a quick refurb (sometimes shoddy), dunked them in cosmoline, and stored them in large quantities in warehouses. Lots of WW2 German or other Axis weapons (such as the Star Model B's in 9mm), come from Russia.
Per this rule, that's about to shut, too.

I agree with your observations. Mr Gabbert also says wait and see. My worry is when the licenses expire then US production capability won't be up to it.
They haven't been to this point.

serger said:

I agree with your observations. Mr Gabbert also says wait and see. My worry is when the licenses expire then US production capability won't be up to it.
They haven't been to this point.

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Absolutely my concern, too.

I never bought steel 9mm for 14 cents, when I could get brass for 16-18 cents.
Steel 7.62x39 hovered around 19-20 cents a rd. If brass (new, boxer primed, not corrosive berdan surplus) were close, I'd probably have treated my SKS to that. I certainly would rather the brass in ARs.
Now, the C308 is a different beast, it runs smoother with steel. So it's both cheaper, and more reliable with that. I've made some effort to ensure I have plenty, will watch for more at the right price. I guess I'm really only competing with other C308, and PTR owners for that.

I don't foresee any domestic steel production; maybe we get some Ukrainian. Red Army Standard seems to have been Ukraine at times. But avoiding political details again, I don't know if Ukraine will be sending extra ammo away; odds are they will stockpile it.

My SKS carbine didn't mind the stuff, but the SKS's were MADE, I believe, for it Once, many years ago, I insulted my Browning Hi-power by trying a box of the Russian steel through it, just to see if it would work. I don't recall any issues except the cr*p was DIRTY. It was supposed to be non-corrosive, but I cleaned the pistol as though it wasn't.

If Russian ammo accounts for 30-40% of ammo bought then it seems to me non Russian manufactures can make a killing by stepping into the void. We always hear about them not wanting to invest in more production if the demand isn’t going to be permanent, but with this Russian issue seems like the demand isn’t going to go away.

There’s a major demand for the product. Time to ramp up production.

kbm6893 said:

If Russian ammo accounts for 30-40% of ammo bought then it seems to me non Russian manufactures can make a killing by stepping into the void. We always hear about them not wanting to invest in more production if the demand isn’t going to be permanent, but with this Russian issue seems like the demand isn’t going to go away.

There’s a major demand for the product. Time to ramp up production.

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Someone is making a killing, but I don't think it's the Russian manufacturers.
I've bought some steel cased in the last year, because it was the only thing remotely affordable. Not all of it came in brand-new boxes.

Here's the baseline that I seem to remember, for such stuff before the panic:
9mm Luger, probably 14-15 cents/rd
7x62x39, about 20 cents/rd
223, maybe about the same, maybe around 23-25 cents a rd (I don't know as much on that)
9x18 Mak, 19-21 cents a rd
308, 35-40 cents a rd

Now, this stuff remained the bottom tier of the prices during the panic, and there was a bunch available (outside of Mak).
Last I remember before the announcement, it had come DOWN to
9mm, 30-35 cents a rd.
7.62x39, 27 cents a rd
223, 33 cents a rd.
308 was 50 cents a rd

And then go ahead and figure in brass, before and now:
9mm, 18 cts/40-45 cents
7.62x39... ? haven't seen or priced brass
223, was around 30 cents as a good price. Probably around 50 cents on average now.
308, wanna say bulk fmj was somewhere around 70 cents a rd. Over a dollar now.

In general, if the ammo will run, I will go with steel if I save around 15% or more.

The Russians are going to hoard the stuff for themselves anyway since they'll need it to deal with the new wave of terrorists that will simultaneously be attempting to attack them while attacking on American soil as well. Plus, Biden wants to ensure his buds in the Taliban don't have any market competition for all that Lake City and Redstone stuff they were just gifted.

I went to the LAX Ammo site today because they emailed me an ad.
Not one single round of 7.62 x 39 to be had. EVERY brand/type/bullet weight, regardless of brass or steel case was marked SOLD OUT.
I think things like this move against importing Russian ammo going are going to exceed all the previous actions that inadvertently promoted more gun and ammo sales. The law of unintended consequences at its finest.

Guess those 500 rounds of Wolf 7.62x39 I bought on the cheap many years ago is about to become valuable.

Really, to me the biggest thing out this, is the incredibly poor timing. Just a total like of awareness.

First surge was fueled by the Covid outbreak, and then the riots and looting.
Things seemed to be easing back down, and then we suddenly get a new wave of Covid exploding in the country... that's what prompted me to make a recent purchase. And that purchase was due to the cheap Russian steel; THAT at least had creeped back down to the tolerable level as far as pricing. I would gladly have added some brass 223 instead, but the day I bought, it was $350 vs $550. And a few days later, it had dropped to $325. I almost cancelled and reordered, but decided to not mess with potential mayhem on the store's side of the deal.

It's almost like those lower prices are what prompted this decision....

Ah, all that being said; I have enough for various impending disasters. I wanted to get back to regular shooting for fun in earnest, but it looks like it's gonna be awhile before that returns.

Added- steel served it's purpose for me.
I didn't get into ARs until 2020, was able to get 1 case of IMI for not too crazy a price. But I wanted to have a little something tucked away, just in case prices don't come back down for a few years.

And I couldn't just get ONE AR; I have a college-aged son living with me, who eyeballed that gun. He's my shooting buddy, it's our quality time and a passion for him as much as it is for me. So I found another, so we'd both be able to have one.
And then as they say...

• "hey, I can put a pistol together for under XX amount. Maybe I should before they change the laws..."
• "hey, I can buy 7.62x39 for a lot cheaper, and Bear Creek has crazy prices on their uppers"
• "hey, I can just get a cheap lower and make that a dedicated rifle"

All of which, the prudent owner understands- you best have ammo for your guns.
And a case of steel now is worth 2 cases of brass sometime down the road...

kbm6893 said:

If Russian ammo accounts for 30-40% of ammo bought then it seems to me non Russian manufactures can make a killing by stepping into the void. We always hear about them not wanting to invest in more production if the demand isn’t going to be permanent, but with this Russian issue seems like the demand isn’t going to go away.

There’s a major demand for the product. Time to ramp up production.

Click to expand...

In the absence of competition, as well as supply, from inexpensive Russian ammunition, going forward they will make a killing without stepping into the void, since they’ll be able to sell every round they can produce at inflated prices.

Oh it pains me sooo much to say this but during the last few years when supplies were good and prices were cheap some of us stocked up Brass cased, steel cased, all calibers, so much ammo so little space

alwslate said:

Oh it pains me sooo much to say this but during the last few years when supplies were good and prices were cheap some of us stocked up Brass cased, steel cased, all calibers, so much ammo so little space

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Well, the worries about affecting current shortages are one thing. I'm also set for quite a long while.

But concerns about PERMANENTLY LOSING access to a particular category or caliber: inexpensive steel-cased 7.62x39, or really ANY 5.45, that's a different beast. For those, it's not "do you have a lot", it's "do you have a lifetime supply"?
Because that's what people are looking at.

I don't know if anyone domestic makes 5.45, and buying x39 for the cost of 30-30 isn't comforting.