I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer but I have come to the realization that the world has changed from the world of three or so years ago. The world of pre-2020 ain't comin' back. EVER!

Everyday, I hear or read the words "I am not going to pay X dollars for (insert item or caliber), I use to buy it for X cents apiece and now those thieven' SOBs want XX cents for the same product. I have spoken the same words. And in my case, if I don't buy I will be OK because, "Back in the good old days" I bought what I thought I needed (and sometimes more than I needed) because I could.

If I was a new guy, (or someone that was unable to build a reserve because of various situations previously) in the world of shooting and needed ammo to hunt with or shoot out of my Blammo 9 or .279 whizbang Mag. and I could buy what I needed for the kind of money I had, I would. I would buy a box here and there until I had what I thought was reasonable and within my budget. (by the way, the same is true of primers, powder and bullets. If you need something and you find it, buy it.)

I know it is going to take longer and cost more to buy what you want or need, especially if you shoot something that is less favored than the current bunch of popular calibers and they will cost more. If you shoot 284 win. or 303 Savage you already know the issues. When you find a box here or there you buy it. Now others are in the same fix when it comes to many calibers.

I believe that 5 years from now, this period of time will be looked back on by many a new shooter as "The Good Old Days". We will hear then, the same things we here now. "I remember back in about "22" when you could buy 9mm for 17 or 18 dollars a box and sometimes as low as 15 if you bought it on sale" My current thought is that you should buy what you need, if you can afford it, because it probably isn't going to get markedly cheaper in the future. Today is the new Good Old Days.

Rambling Rant Over - Carry on.

A while back I found a 1991 issue of the Shotgun News in a storage box. Looking at the prices and adjusting for inflation a case of brass case FMJ 9mm was going for about $250 to nearly $400. Sure, the price in 1991 dollars was about half that but I make a lot more now than I did in 1991. It is real easy to forget inflation and just remember the price on the box. It is also easy to remember the absolute lowest price and think that is normal when it is not.

After the first gulf war ended in the 90s I could buy gas in the Atlanta area for about $.60/gallon. That wasn't normal and is not going to happen again. Neither was the price of ammo a few years ago. It was the result of manufacturers expanding production after the big shortage in 2013 caused prices to spike. There was a glut on the market.

I do think prices are going to come down from where they are now but am less optimistic about when or how much than I was a year ago. Metal prices are soaring, labor costs are rising, ammo makers are not borrowing money to expand production for what may be a short term surge in demand and cheap steel case ammo from Russia is no longer going driving prices down.

Today's prices are not the new normal but 2019 prices were not normal either. They were quite low by historical standards.

What I remember from the good old days was that the average working person did not shoot a lot of ammo plinking or target shooting because they couldn't afford it. I knew a regular working person that shot Skeet with a Krieghoff shotgun but he didn't have much of a house or vehicle. Larry

I think the "Good Old Days!" are yet to come. I went to the grocery store and saw $5.00 a lb. for hamburger. I filled up my 5 gallon gas can for the lawn tractor for over $21.00. People won't flip hamburgers at the fast food restaurants for $15.00/ hr. Powder is simply unattainable. Primers are sky high. I think that this rampant inflation and lack of products will be turned around in a couple of years and we'll be singing, "Happy Days are Here Again!".

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Use should dictate gear!

I know people get a case of vapors here when I post on this topic, but here it is again...

High volume shooting is a "want" and NOT a "need".

People got really spoiled in the roughly 1992 to 2019 era, with lots of import ammo helping to keep costs down. Relatively speaking, ammo during this period was the cheapest is had ever been. Now reality is coming back. Mass "gun games" wastefulness is probably done for the folks with limited discretionary income.

I don't share your optimism.

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BTDT, Got The T-Shirt

I think we are headed to lower pricing. I think that if you look at it realistically raw material costs are going up but demand is dropping off. Tons of new gun owners over the last 2 years have realized they don't actually shoot that often if ever.

They still have all the $.50+ 9mm ball ammo they bought in 2021. At the height people were paying $.70+ a round for 9mm FMJ. It is now down to $.35 OTD. The price increases for material costs, shipping etc are all built into that $.35.

So that tells you it is not raw material costs or labor that drove the price up to $.70. Supply and demand economics tells us it was demand. Demand outstripped production and people panicked and paid the piper.

Now as demand has dropped we are seeing pricing drop. It seems to have settled out at $.35 but if you look around ammo is everywhere. This time last year the shelves were bare. They are not now. Everytime I am in a gun shop or big box store there is ammo available. It is expensive but available. On most days you can buy online and get it to your door for $350 a case for 9mm.

223/556 is also coming down. Look at the prices of AR15s. They are bottoming out again. The Sport II is a $600 rifle these days. It used to be a $500 or less rifle but with the drop off in demand for AR15s the price has dropped.

Now I don' think we are going to get back to $.15 a round but I think that we have not hit the bottom yet. I have a number in mind that when it hits I will start buying again. I am a huge proponent of dollar cost Avging ammo buying.

Buy on a regular basis. Keep enough ammo on hand so you can continue to shoot at your normal pace for 5 years without buying ammo. History has told us that generally that it the longest it takes to correct itself. Keep an eye on ammo prices and start buying again when you think it has bottomed out. If you think that it today then buy. Again I think it will go lower by the end of the year.

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Use should dictate gear!

Yep, the “good old days”. I can remember when I was a teenager and
30-06 mil sup was going for a penny a round. Gas was 20-25 cents a gallon too. You could get a pretty good new car for around $2500 and houses were selling for $6K -$10K depending on location. None of that’s coming back either. It is what it is and we’re at where we’re at…….

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"Your other right........."

All of you who think that the price of ammo is going to drop, I disagree.

The price of the raw material is skyrocketing. And it shows no signs of slowing down.

So while prices have dropped from the pandemic fueled price spike. the days of $10 9mm ammo are gone with $2 a gallon gas.

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BTDT, Got The T-Shirt

.38 /.357 reloads were 50 for $500.
.44 Special /.45 Acp reloads were 50 for $7.50
.22LR .99 cent for 50..$1.99 for 100 and $5.99 for 500
I remember being 22 yrs old and collecting cans and bottles for a few hrs. to buy my range ammo for the month.

Do you also remember making $1.00-$1.50 an hour? Larry

Yes, and that was a good wage - for that time period. But like the Dodo Bird, it’s all “gone with the wind”……….

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"Your other right........."

I remember in the day getting $1 a lb for scrap copper, 10 cents for aluminum. Today scrap copper is $4. Is ammo expensive, not really it is still very cheap. My father-in-law told me a story of when he was a kid and his parents main income was raising turkeys and grain to feed them. His Father sent him to the store to buy 10 - 22 shells and 5 - 12 gauge shotgun shells. His Father would place a bunch of seed on the tank dam and wait till at least 12 or more doves would land on it before pulling the trigger on his shotgun. And one 22 bullet meant one rabbit, there was no missing and definitely no target practice. How many people here on this forum pay over a $100 to watch TV, when it is free with over the air channels? We are spoiled.

When I was a young teenager I worked for farmer for $3.00 a day. He picked me up at sunup and brought me home at sundown. He did feed me dinner at midday.

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S&W Accumulator

I remember, back when I had my FFL I purchased a KILLER deal from Natchez. I got a flyer from them stating they had a clearance on CCI Blazer aluminum 9mm ball and 45acp ball, either one for 6.99 a box. I ended up buying in the area of 35 to 40k rounds each, not long after the UPS guy cursed me for having to lug the whole thing out to me, I ended up giving up my FFL to go back to school for my Masters in Nursing. I kept all my inventory of weapons and ammo, parts and most of the holsters. LOL, I still have some of that ammo horde.

I can remember rolling my eyes at the guys saying it back then. Now I'm old and have become one of them

You can get just so much from a good thing
You can linger too long in your dreams
Say goodbye to the oldies but goodies
'Cause the good ole days weren't always good
And tomorrow ain't as bad as it seems...

Billy Joel - Keeping the Faith (Official Video) - YouTube

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Use should dictate gear!

Yep. You could also buy a box of .22 LR for fifty cents. Back then (1963) I was making 50 cents an hour as a janitor at a radio station and thought I was rich.

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Pack light and cinch tight.

I used to shoot an average of 4K a year, half rimfire, from the mid ‘70’s until a few years ago. Now I probably average 2.4K a year, half rimfire. Costs about the same. Joe

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Wisdom chases me; I'm faster

I was about 14-15 I helped a farmer thresh wheat for 2 evenings. From 4 o'clock till dark. I was in the loft with his grown son and I threw down a bundle every time his son did. When we finished he asked how much he owed me and I said whatever you think I was worth. He gave me 25 cents. I went out of the wheat threshing business. Larry