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  #1  
Old 04-04-2025, 05:43 PM
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Default A Market Trifecta ( Non Political )

The Dow, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 all went down about 6% today. It is getting near time to think about buying but I do not think the flight to safety is over yet. This will be bumpy.
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Old 04-04-2025, 05:50 PM
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As I approached 80, I went to all cash. I don't need ulcers at my age.
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Old 04-04-2025, 05:53 PM
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We've been in for decades and the market has been good to us. I'm not bailing out now....

This is probably a good time to invest. The last thing you want to do is buy high. Cash under the mattress will only go down in value.
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Old 04-04-2025, 05:56 PM
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During the Great Depression both of my Grandpas lost everything. While they were alive if I ever told them I bought stock they would have disowned me.

I bought my company's stock when they provided a huge match. As soon as I got the certificates I sold them. At a 50% match I was way ahead and had no worries.

My investments have always been guaranteed accounts and often a mutual fund. If the fund contained stocks I dunno, but if they were not performing to my liking I dumped them.

Now 10 years retired and still own no stocks. My monthly income provides a surplus. I DO understand that if I had played the market I would be far ahead. But I have a house that is paid for and no debts. We take 2 cruises each year. Two years ago I bought a brand new boat and this year a brand new Cadillac.

I'm satisfied with life. I DID work a lot, and the hard work is what made me successful.
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Old 04-04-2025, 06:06 PM
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Let's see if I were buying stock today, I would buy the DOW as a stock, and the S&P and the total stock market both as an index.

I own one stock today. Otter Tail Power in Fergus Falls, MN, They are strong and they split once. I am in the DRIP plan, and the dividends just buy more stock
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Old 04-04-2025, 06:11 PM
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As I approached 80, I went to all cash. I don't need ulcers at my age.
Amen to that. At some point we quit worrying about the return on our money and start worrying the return of our money.
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Old 04-04-2025, 06:22 PM
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I’m staying in.if it recovers in a few years I’m happy,if I croak before then I won’t need it anyway lol
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Old 04-04-2025, 06:26 PM
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My IBM stock has taken a dump but as BTO said I will let it ride.
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Old 04-04-2025, 06:30 PM
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I'm down about 11% since February. I'm thinking wait for another 15% or so drop, then buy.
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Old 04-04-2025, 07:57 PM
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Bulls make money, Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Stay the course, don’t get greedy.
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Old 04-04-2025, 10:05 PM
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I went to cash when I retired 4 years ago. It was nice getting 5% on it (still almost 4%), 7% from an annuity. I could live on my SS check alone but the "other $" makes it easy. Heck, the State of Florida bumped the "$5/mo for every year of service" to $7.50 (15.05 years =$112.88) direct deposit. Still a bit of "feast and famine" with dividends coming every 3 months and 6 months. I can afford "Fancy Feast" on special occasions. Joe
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Old 04-04-2025, 10:12 PM
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Sometimes a hold is as good as a buy…
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Old 04-04-2025, 10:19 PM
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To time the market you have to be right twice. It can't be done.
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Old 04-04-2025, 10:45 PM
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To time the market you have to be right twice. It can't be done.
It can be done.

How else can politicians become multi-millionaires despite their salaries?
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Old 04-05-2025, 12:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glenwolde View Post
...At some point we quit worrying about the return on our money and start worrying the return of our money.
Well said. I'd give that a dozen likes if I could. I rode the stock market for nearly 50 years and did well with a conservative buy-and-hold approach. But I eventually got to a point where I knew I wasn't going to outlive my savings, and capital preservation became more important than capital acquisition. And that's when I went to all cash.

For the young whippersnappers under 70 on the Forum who can wait out a dip in the market, I agree the upcoming months may be a good time to buy.
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Old 04-05-2025, 12:50 AM
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For the young whippersnappers under 70 on the Forum who can wait out a dip in the market, I agree the upcoming months may be a good time to buy.
Well, just wanna say, some whippersnappers persist into their '70s with optimism in the market, and in the country's future.

Better times ahead, I do believe. Just gotta be patient.
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Old 04-05-2025, 02:47 AM
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Bulls make money, Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Stay the course, don’t get greedy.
You got that right!
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Old 04-05-2025, 10:20 AM
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Default For Financial Advice

For Financial Advice:

1) Consult a few Market Analysts

2) Consult three astrologers and a Ouija board for equally accurate advice.

I am not selling.
Might buy some if we have a recession.

Bekeart
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Old 04-05-2025, 10:35 AM
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I'm a big fan of hedging with options. Think of it as buying an insurance policy on your holdings. Just selling your stocks can have some real negative tax implications. Buy an index put option instead if you think things might be going south. All you can lose is the cost of the option.
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Old 04-05-2025, 10:45 AM
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If you get a pension of any sort (besides Social Security), then you are invested in the stock market. Every single pension fund in America has at least some of its money invested in the stock market.

Not to mention that every time the stock market goes up or down it affects the value of the dollars in your pocket, as well as the cost of all the goods you need to survive.

So if you think that what the stock market does won't affect you, you are wrong!
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Old 04-05-2025, 10:48 AM
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Been playing the market for a long time now! At my age (Almost 80) the majority of my portfolio is widow and orphan stocks and medical REITs. Hey you do what you got to do!
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Old 04-05-2025, 10:57 AM
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Been playing the market for a long time now! At my age (Almost 80) the majority of my portfolio is widow and orphan stocks and medical REITs. Hey you do what you got to do!
I’ll never be not invested.
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Old 04-05-2025, 11:04 AM
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My father started us kids out with Std of NJ, Elec and one other stock
when we were only teen agers.
It always went up and I was sorry when I cashed them in.

Today I only have two "Bullish" stocks and the rest are a "break even or do better " package that I don't have to worry about.

One pays me $$ every quarter, per the way my advisors, set it up.

Good Advisors are where it is at.
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Old 04-05-2025, 11:23 AM
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Nearly 40 years ago my main investment guy provided convincing arguments in favor of growth stock mutual funds consisting primarily of reliable dividend-paying shares, and reinvesting the dividends to purchase additional shares. Even better when this can be done in a tax-sheltered account (IRA, Keough, Roth, 401, etc) which was how most of my accounts were constructed.

Since then we have been through highs and lows, peaks and valleys, experts predicting the end of the world during several scary market cycles. We have watched other folks react to their fears and sell out, hoping to salvage something from their life savings. We just continued plugging along and continued investing regularly.

It works. Those accounts are now earning more than the two of us ever made while working for a living.

In my opinion, right about now would be a very good time to start buying shares in highly-rated growth stock mutual funds and continue doing so through the trough and into the recovery slope.

Please note that I am not a financial genius, nor am I a qualified investment advisor, just an old retired blue-collar working stiff sharing what has worked very well for us over the years.
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Old 04-05-2025, 12:32 PM
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Remember 2008. Hang in there it always comes around. If it drops much more I'll be looking at some to buy.
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Old 04-05-2025, 12:58 PM
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I have an IRA with a great company and a balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds and cash. Last year when I had to take my first Required Minimum Distribution (RMD), I started cashing out portions of stock funds gradually moving to a more conservative approach. Now about a fourth of my fund is short term or cash. Right now my stock funds are getting decimated, but I've seen this before and I'm not about to sell those funds to generate cash I don't need. I'll wait it out, but at 73 years old, the next time the stocks recover, I'll be selling some as I gradually move to all cash.
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Old 04-05-2025, 01:18 PM
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Have no stocks, but a modest annuity that does invest. Plus social security and paid off house. Not planning on investing and hoping i make it to 70.
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Old 04-05-2025, 01:26 PM
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It can be done.

How else can politicians become multi-millionaires despite their salaries?
I think one would call that "inside information".
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Old 04-05-2025, 01:26 PM
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If you get a pension of any sort (besides Social Security), then you are invested in the stock market. Every single pension fund in America has at least some of its money invested in the stock market.

Not to mention that every time the stock market goes up or down it affects the value of the dollars in your pocket, as well as the cost of all the goods you need to survive.

So if you think that what the stock market does won't affect you, you are wrong!
I'm sure you know more about it than I do, but I thought that if a company offered a pension they had to keep sufficient funds in the account to cover all its retirees.

Just before my Grandpa retired in the 1950's his company was sold out and the new owners did not carry over the pension plan. He lost out on 30 years of hard work. I thought that events like this lead to legislation geared toward preventing it.

Just before I retired my company stopped pensions for new hires. My 28 years of service kept me in the plan. After an LBO, bankruptcy and new owners the "new" company bought an insurance company annuity with the money in the pension fund. I still get the same check every month but from a different source. Don't tell me I'm in jeopardy if the market crashes!
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Old 04-05-2025, 01:28 PM
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I think one would call that "inside information".
Yeah a congressman from NY went to jail for that after he gained millions because he and his family sold the stock just before the company crashed.
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Old 04-05-2025, 01:42 PM
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Staying put and buying the dip.
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Old 04-05-2025, 01:58 PM
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I have money in a SEP account and IRAs but we have rent houses that are the main thing we are depending on for retirement in the future. I'm in construction so I know a little bit about rent houses and they have their headaches but I still trust them than more the stock market. I still remember 2008 when hardly no one expected the mortgage bundling fiasco that sent a lot of people into bankruptcy. The bad thing about thing about the market is when you retire, if the market takes a really big hit and stays down for several years while you're pulling money out to live on the balance can get really low and never build back to what it was.

Last edited by Farmer17; 04-05-2025 at 02:02 PM.
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Old 04-05-2025, 02:05 PM
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As I approached 80, I went to all cash. I don't need ulcers at my age.
The market causes ulcers only when you worry about it.
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Old 04-05-2025, 02:17 PM
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I'm sure you know more about it than I do, but I thought that if a company offered a pension they had to keep sufficient funds in the account to cover all its retirees.
No, it's not like they have to keep cash in a bank to pay all of their pension obligations. They invest the money in a variety of ways, including in the stock market. The minimum required present value of all of those investments is tied (by complicated algorithms that I'm not sure anyone completely understands -- I certainly don't) to the amount of their future obligations. The present value, however, does not have to be enough to completely cover 100% of their future obligations. The assumption is that the investments will make money over time that will -- when the time comes -- allow them to pay what they have to.

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Originally Posted by GypsmJim View Post
Don't tell me I'm in jeopardy if the market crashes!
Okay, I won't tell you. But someone probably ought to. Actually, I guess I will tell you.

Like with pensions, the money to pay annuities is not just sitting in a bank; it is invested (including in the stock market). There are a variety of rules in place that make it pretty unlikely that a company will ever default on its annuity contracts.

Unlikely, but not impossible. It has happened in the past. If the economy goes deeply enough into the toilet, and the stock market crashes badly enough (neither of which is likely in the immediate future) then it it inevitable that some companies will default on annuity payments. Here's hoping that YOURS is managed conservatively enough that it wouldn't be one of those.
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Old 04-05-2025, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by SMSgt View Post
The market causes ulcers only when you worry about it.
My signature line addresses that issue.
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Old 04-05-2025, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Ματθιας View Post
It can be done.

How else can politicians become multi-millionaires despite their salaries?
Through appropriations
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Old 04-05-2025, 05:47 PM
GypsmJim GypsmJim is offline
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Originally Posted by Farmer17 View Post
I have money in a SEP account and IRAs but we have rent houses that are the main thing we are depending on for retirement in the future. I'm in construction so I know a little bit about rent houses and they have their headaches but I still trust them than more the stock market. I still remember 2008 when hardly no one expected the mortgage bundling fiasco that sent a lot of people into bankruptcy. The bad thing about thing about the market is when you retire, if the market takes a really big hit and stays down for several years while you're pulling money out to live on the balance can get really low and never build back to what it was.
I know people that have "rent houses". Good or bad, some of his units are in poorer neighborhoods. Back in the plandemic, some of his tenants that were on welfare had no issues paying the rent. But others that were responsible people in the workforce lost their jobs. Of course the govmnt gave them the ability to defray their rent payments. Good for them, but the rent house owners still had taxes and utilities and upkeep to take care of.

I hope your buildimngs are inhabited by good people.
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Old 04-05-2025, 06:26 PM
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I have watched the markets go up and down for decades. I retired 2.5 years ago and between SS, my pension and plenty of cash in the bank I am making more than when I worked. Not planning on touching my 401K until I have to start making RMD's in about 10 years. I fully expect that when all the backdoor tariff negotiations are done things will settle down again. Just tired already of the media with all of their 'The sky is falling!' rhetoric.
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Old 04-05-2025, 06:33 PM
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We have 3 sources of retirement income. Both of us have social security and that alone is enough for us to live fairly well, with no debt. At 50 I stopped working on cars for a living and started building houses. Now we have sold the two houses I built and the bank is paying us to use our money and it's insured.
That is almost $30k in interest income this year.
No significant long term debt in 33 years. We save 3/4 ths of our income. All household expenses that we share are $1025 a month and we made close to $100k last year and paid 7.5% federal income taxes.
Wife's retirement is about 40% of our combined income.
Every time I try the stock market it's a catastrophe.
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Old 04-06-2025, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by GypsmJim View Post
I'm sure you know more about it than I do, but I thought that if a company offered a pension they had to keep sufficient funds in the account to cover all its retirees.
Currently pensions in US corporations are required to be insured in a pension benefit corporation. My former employer in a bankruptcy situation went below 70% insured and had to inform each person covered, vested and each person contributing. That notification comes if you dip below 80% insurance coverage. I was told that most companies try to keep an 85% coverage. [I was a union rep].

In the US, if bankruptcy occurs, the order of payments are: pensions, current benefits for employees, and lastly shareholders.
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Old 04-06-2025, 02:03 PM
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This market has been riding on Fed juice for way too long and is in need on a major correction to get healthy.

The banks need to reduce the risk in their portfolios or we may see another huge assets wipe-out and big bank shuffle.

Historically, the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is about 18. Currently, the P/E ratio is nearly 29. Hardly time to cheer for this bloated group. More juice than substance.

TLT may be a safe place to watch the approaching storm.

Last edited by URIT; 04-07-2025 at 05:18 AM.
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Old 04-06-2025, 03:11 PM
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Tri-Floptia

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Old 04-06-2025, 03:14 PM
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Originally Posted by URIT View Post
This market has been riding on Fed juice for way too long and is in need on a major correction to get healthy.

The banks need to reduce the risk in their portfolios or we may see another huge assets wipe-out and big bank shuffle.

Historically, the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is about 18. Currently, the P/E ratio is nearly 29. Hardly, time to cheer for this bloated group. More juice than substance.

TLT may be a safe place to watch the approaching storm.
Well said……..
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Old 04-06-2025, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by lkabug View Post
I think one would call that "inside information".

No way would they do something illegal.
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Old 04-06-2025, 09:39 PM
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No way would they do something illegal.
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