I've been watching a very nice '48, close to "unfired", "new in box", whatever, four line address, in the original box, which is good at best, and the asking price is $1800. It's been sitting and I've been watching. It would be a good fit in my group, but I think it's just too high. Others seem to agree, since it's not moving (yet). If that seller would accept $1500, I'd be on it, and that would be the market price for a high level gun on that day: the upper end of the '48 K22 market, so to speak. It would be high, but that wouldn't bother me but a couple days.
There were lots of K22's produced in 1948, if the mfg year means anything to you. (In the SCSW, the SN used that year ran from about K19000 to about K73000. That includes all the K targets, .32, .38 as well as the .22's, but it's the biggest manufacturing year before the model marked guns, if you believe "the book" and take it at face value. Conclusion: lots of K22's coming off the floor.) I have a "one liner" '48 in about 98% condition without box that I paid $900 for a year ago, and I think that was a fair price, but certainly not a great one. Since I bought it I've probably seen 10 guns that I would like better, but trading up will cost me more than it's worth, so I haven't. All that being said, to say this: these come up pretty often, and if you don't like this deal another will be along shortly.
Unless the box is numbered to the gun and looks original to the gun I tend to round up $100 for the box. If it numbers, and it's nice, I might round up as much as $200.
All that being said, an honest 95% condition (finish condition with nothing wrong mechanically or refinished or replaced parts) '48, 5-screw, narrow rib K22 should bring $600, to $800 on the high side. The box would add $100 IMO. That puts a selling price from $700 (a great deal) to $900 (OK if it's the gun you're looking for) in about the right place, IMO.
Which is just what everybody else seems to think, too.
