It's actually the second board that I've said "I doubt it would..." and "..I'd be surprised if it did..." In neither post did I say "could not possibly pass a military trial." If your going to quote me quote me accurately.
My supporting rationale is having participated in an agency T&E of the M&P 40. The M&P has a lousy gritty trigger, that would not facilitate the expediant training of new recruits in accurate marksmanship.
In addition I don't think the M&P pistol is durable enough for lengthy service with low maintenance costs. I've seen just locally, since the Guilford County Sheriff's department got these M&P's, walking roll pins, broken strikers, FTF's, rusting slides where the rear sight is mounted and an across the board decline in qualification scores. These are not indicators of a handgun that would excell in a military environment.
Then there is that idiotic "tool" in the grip. How long till those are getting lost by new recruits or are falling out due to wear/improper installation.
There are too many superior handguns to the M&P for it to succeed in a military trial, IMO. The FN 45, HK USP, Sig and others stand a better chance at getting any contract for a new sidearm.
All a moot point anyway as the military just ordered several thousand new Beretta's. There isn't going to be a new handgun anytime soon.
Edited to add: BTW During the T&E where the M&P 40 was evaluated, we selected the Glock 22 for patrol and the Glock 23 for plainclothes/detectives.