In terms of "punch", it really doesn't matter what caliber you shoot. No gun carried by a man will reliably stop another man with only one shot. It takes at least two shots, and the stopping rate with 2 or more hits to the head or torso is about the same for all calibers. Here's a good article documenting the effectiveness of all the common handgun and rifle calibers.
An Alternate Look at Handgun Stopping Power
I bought an M&P40 with a thumb safety in March, and I really like it.
I know the manual thumb safety isn't for everyone, but I think the thumb safety on the M&P is a great feature for anyone that likes to have that extra bit of control over the gun.
As for choice of caliber, you might want to consider ammo availability in your area. In the area where I live, 40 has always been in stock and available when I've wanted it. I can't say that for 45, and I certainly can't say that for 9mm. In my case, the availability of ammo was probably biggest factor that made me go with 40 even though I'd never shot that caliber before purchasing the M&P40. I had previously shot 9mm and 45. I've found 40 to be very fun to shoot, and I've had no regrets about my supply driven caliber choice.