Ammo supplies are increasing, prices not really dropping

[Borderboss]

Based on emails I've been getting over the past 7-10 days, the supply chain has caught up with demand on ammo and supplies are increasing. However, pricing isn't really decreasing much. As an example, 50-round boxes that used to be under $10 a box are now "on sale" at between $25-$30 a box.

From my economics training, this is suppliers trying to test the market to see if they can establish a new, higher, "normal" price. As consumers, we shouldn't fall for this. Don't buy it unless you're absolutely out. As the suppliers eat unsold merchandise, the pricing will be forced to return to normal.

Bear up and be strong. We can get the price down again.

 

[Bozz10mm]

Once it starts sitting on the shelves a while, the prices will start to come down. Federal just raised prices again for the second time since April 1st.

 

[firefighterjohn]

Once it starts sitting on the shelves a while, the prices will start to come down. Federal just raised prices again for the second time since April 1st.

Yep, just basic economic laws of Supply/Demand and what some people are willing to pay for it.

 

[LPD256]

Price drop at my range yesterday. .38 special went from $33 to $23 for a 50 round box. For range members. No limit. I like the trend.

 

[stansdds]

What has been said about basic economics is true. Prices have been driven up by massive demand coupled with limited supply. Once supply matches, then passes demand, either the price comes down or the supply sits on a shelf, collecting dust. One factor that will keep prices higher than before the pandemic/panic is the cost of labor and materials. Inflation has driven materials cost up and there are a number of factors that are driving up the cost of labor. The current, stated rate of inflation is now 4.2%, so expect ammo and reloading supplies to cost at least this much more when supply has satisfied demand. Even the USPS is asking for a 5.45% increase in 1st class postage stamp rates.

 

[reddog81]

$25 per box is a lot less than the $40 per box they were charging 2 months ago.

 

[GSP Fan]

The cost of copper has doubled in the last year according to Hornady. I've seen 9MM ammo at $47/100 in good supply but nothing else. I've scrounged up 500 rounds of 22 Mag for about $20/box. I have a new to me M48 that needs some range time. I'd like to see some primers become available especially pistol primers, there as rare as a winning lottery ticket.
A friend of mine sold an 8lb jug of PB which is a discontinued shotgun powder for $400!!.

 

[LostintheOzone]

I agree with the OP. I see firearms from companies who don't produce large numbers of firearms being sold on the auction sites for 20% over MSRP used. That's a result of covid and even lower production numbers than usual.

I happen to be in the market for one of those rifles right now. If one popped up today at MSRP I would buy it. The problem is the product just isn't making it to the distributors. That doesn't mean that they won't in the near future however. So I'm just going to set on the fence until they do because I don't have to have that rifle this week or even this year.

The price for ammo is just stupid and will remain high until people understand that until they stop buying at those inflated prices it's never going to get anywhere close to a reasonable retail markup.

 

[Jon651]

Based on emails I've been getting over the past 7-10 days, the supply chain has caught up with demand on ammo and supplies are increasing. However, pricing isn't really decreasing much. As an example, 50-round boxes that used to be under $10 a box are now "on sale" at between $25-$30 a box.

From my economics training, this is suppliers trying to test the market to see if they can establish a new, higher, "normal" price. As consumers, we shouldn't fall for this. Don't buy it unless you're absolutely out. As the suppliers eat unsold merchandise, the pricing will be forced to return to normal.

Bear up and be strong. We can get the price down again.

There will also be a natural price increase due to the increased cost of raw materials. Even if the "demand" were not increased, the costs on the "supply" side have still escalated. I think the manufacturers would be seeking their "new normal" when we see them decrease production to keep the prices up with all else being the same.

 

[Rodan]

FWIW, the LGS manager told me the other day that supply is getting better, but their wholesale costs have increased 30-50% on what they're getting. I think it's going to be a while 'till ammo prices come down. They may never fall to previous levels. IMHO, inflation is finally starting to really show in consumer prices. That's not going away.

 

[GSP Fan]

People are beginning to ignore the price gougers to some extent. On another forum there is an add for 5000 primers, I don't recall if there rifle or pistol but the asking price broke down to $18/100 shipped. Lots of lookers but no one was buying

 

[LPD256]

I can remember when there were fuel shortages and the gougers were prosecuted for price-gouging on gasoline sales. Today, people will put fuel in plastic bags that their hoarded toilet paper came in. And now are driving to the meat store because that's the next hoardable item. In the last shortage, I know a guy that had 30,000 rounds of .22 cal and was still buying. Some people can't quit being jerks.

 

[Borderboss]

FWIW, the LGS manager told me the other day that supply is getting better, but their wholesale costs have increased 30-50% on what they're getting. I think it's going to be a while 'till ammo prices come down. They may never fall to previous levels. IMHO, inflation is finally starting to really show in consumer prices. That's not going away.

Another instance of suppliers trying to figure out how much of a price increase people will accept in order to increase profit. I would understand a 10%-20% increase max given conditions. Anything more is just an attempt to increase margins. Like consumers, your LGS is going to have to look for other suppliers or go without until prices stabilize.

 

[smithra_66]

Another instance of suppliers trying to figure out how much of a price increase people will accept in order to increase profit. I would understand a 10%-20% increase max given conditions. Anything more is just an attempt to increase margins. Like consumers, your LGS is going to have to look for other suppliers or go without until prices stabilize.

Why would they do that when they can sell the ammo for high prices and people will buy it?

People are voting with their wallets. The LGS is in business to make money.

 

[Borderboss]

Why would they do that when they can sell the ammo for high prices and people will buy it?

People are voting with their wallets. The LGS is in business to make money.

Which gets back to my original post. Stop buying at these prices and the prices will come down.

 

[ruger 22]

I recently checked for 22lr in several of our local stores and find that the range for a box of 100 is anywhere between $8.00 and $20.00 currently. The one shop that has them for $8.00 is limiting them to 2 boxes per customer per day and is often out of shells while the one for $20.00 has no limit and has plenty of stock. We also have one store in a neighboring town who is trying to sell a box of 50 for $12.95. He has a lot of stock too.

 

[GSP Fan]

My LGS has 22LR for $5.29/box limit two. As it's 45 minuets away I don't get there often

 

[.38SuperMan]

When supply catches up and dealers are over stocked prices will drop. I expect prices to be a little higher than pre pandemic due to inflation and raw material prices increasing but don't believer the crazy high prices will continue long term.

Expect serious inflation in the near future in all areas, food, housing, transportation and etc. You can't have near 0 interest rates and trillions of dollars being printed and dumped in the economy without that happening. I wish a good friend of mine was still alive, for several reasons, but he was my economics professor in college 51 years ago and a good personal friend. Tony Spiva, he was an economic adviser under 3 or 4 presidents (conservative). If he were still alive I'd ask him his opinion but I already know what he'd say. What we saw under Carter and George II will be minor compared to what we're in for.

Not politics, just economics.

 

[scoobysnacker]

For what it's worth, I got an email from Global Ordnance last night.

They had a code for free shipping (that knocks off their usual $13 flat rate).

They also had Tula, 9mm 115gr fmj, and .223 55gr fmj; 1k case price $449.99. In checking their site, they also have 7.62x39 for $334.99 for 1k, .45 acp $318.99/box of 500, .308 is 298.99/ 500.

This is one week after sgammo had S&B 9mm brass, $500 a case (plus shipping).

These are not your 2019 prices, but it's lower than I've seen in months, almost a year.

 

[pasound]

Yes it is showing up. Went to the Bare Arms shooting range in Huntington, WV yesterday, and they had nearly everything (except .38's) in deep stock. 20 1,000 round bricks of Tulammo 9mm sitting on the floor, and the clerk stated they bought 93 total, the rest going to their larger store in Ashland, Ky. Under $400 per. Sterling .22LR in 1,000 round bricks for $50.00. Lots of .40, .45, .223, too. But 5/1 import to domestic labels, and still leaves the price about twice what it was 18 months ago. I agree with Borderboss. If you have it, don't buy it yet.