COVID-19 - Learning from History

s&wchad

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This is a plea to heed government warnings and play it safe. Many of us here are considered "high risk". At least one of my wife's coworkers has been infected, I've read the one of our forum members family has been infected and isn't expected to survive and I'm sure other forum members have contracted the virus. Fortunately, my wife has been able to work from home for for the past 3 weeks. Those of you who can isolate yourselves and avoid possible exposure, please do so. Hospitals in much of the country are near capacity, medical supplies are low and the situation will likely get worse, before it gets better. Many of our members work in law enforcement, the medical industry, are firefighters, EMT's or have jobs crucial to our infrastructure and don't have that luxury.

My sincere respect and thanks goes out to those of you who still must work to maintain law and order, save lives/property and keep our heat, water and lights on. May God bless you and keep you safe.

It's been said that "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it". The coronavirus that we're facing today is unprecedented in our lifetimes, but a similar pandemic ravaged the world about 100 years ago. Troop movement and ignorance helped spread the virus.

In the final stages of WWI, the pandemic of 1918 (Spanish Flu - H1N1 strain) killed between 50 and 100 million people. That's between 2X and 4X the number of military and civilian deaths from the "War to end all wars". It's estimated that 500 million people were infected worldwide (1/3 of the population). India suffered about 18 million deaths and lost 6% of their people. About 675,000 Americans died from it. It took almost 2 years for the virus to run its course.

Those are sobering numbers. Different parts of the US dealt with the problem in different ways and had radically different result.

Saint Louis respond quickly. Early on, the mayor closed schools, libraries, court houses, churches and playgrounds, limited the number of passengers on streetcars and had businesses stagger shifts to minimize exposure. People were ordered to stay at home. The death rate in St, Louis was 358 per 100,000 people.

Philadelphia downplayed the threat at first and was slow to respond. They even hosted a Liberty Parade to promote war bonds. An estimated 200,000 people attended. Their death rate was 748 per 100,000 people. At its peak, the death rate was 8X higher than in St. Louis.

attachment.php

Workers digging mass graves in Philadelphia
Photo from Historical Medical Library - Philadelphia College of Physicians

Flu vaccines and antibiotics to fight secondary bacterial infections didn't exist in 1918 and health care wasn't as sophisticated. Communication wasn't as advanced. Unfortunately, the flu vaccine won't protect you from the coronavirus. The pneumonia vaccine won't protect you from COVID-19 related pneumonia. We don't have a natural immunity to this virus and no vaccine exists at this time.

Please, take this threat seriously. Stay put whenever possible. Don't allow non-residents into your home. It's really just a minor inconvenience in today's world. You can have goods delivered and deal with the packages prudently, to minimize chances of exposure. You have TV and radio for entertainment. You have the phone and the internet to keep in touch with the outside world. We will get through this. I'm sure your family and friends want to keep you around and the forum community would hate to lose you! I'm also sure the vast majority of us would be devastated if our actions unnecessarily resulted in the death of others.

As usual, we won't be discussing politics, race or religion.
 

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Regarding the 1918 Flu pandemic, my father lost three siblings as a result of it. All were under 5 years old. Two were twins who died three months apart. It was not unusual for families to lose at least one member.
 
This has been posted in the recent past but it does bear repeating.
Thank you for the post.

During that time St. Louis had the lowest death rate of the ten most populous cities in the USA.

Stay safe everyone.
 
my maternal grandmother in rural Nebraska was placed on the Flu train and was sent off to die alone during the Spanish Flu (actually started in Kansas if I recall)... she recovered and returned home... had health problems her whole life... but had a whole life... she had a great marriage for over 50 years and had 5 kids... one of the strongest people I ever knew... I am hoping my 25% of that helps.
(25% on paternal side was WWI ambulance corp veteran...)
 
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....
Saint Louis respond quickly. Early on, the mayor closed schools, libraries, court houses, churches and playgrounds, limited the number of passengers on streetcars and had businesses stagger shifts to minimize exposure. People were ordered to stay at home. The death rate in St, Louis was 358 per 100,000 people.

Philadelphia downplayed the threat at first and was slow to respond. They even hosted a Liberty Parade to promote war bonds. An estimated 200,000 people attended. Their death rate was 748 per 100,000 people. At its peak, the death rate was 8X higher than in St. Louis.

....

The contrast between Philadelphia and St. Louis is indeed a powerful illustration how early, decisive, and consistent action will make a significant difference.

However, the comparison graph, often-shown these days, also shows something else important to remember at this point:

The danger of relaxing and letting down the guard too early. If you look at the St. Louis line on the attached graph, the second larger bulge, although still much lower than the Philadelphia spike, shows the flu roaring back in December after St.Louis authorities thought they could “get back to normal”, and causing greater numbers of casualties than the initial well-contained wave.
 

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All the scare tactics I'm afraid are falling on deaf ears. Most intelligent people already know to distance themselves, wash hands frequently, and stay home or away from folks, it's the other people you have to worry about. A lot of dumb people don't watch the news, listen to news radio, or associate much with people who do and if they did listen they would just ignore what they heard. Yesterday I got called to help an 81 year old friend who has a rent house and his renter can't lock the front door so I went to fix it for him. The house is in a lower middle class neighborhood and when I went in several neighborhood kids were in the sons bedroom sitting on the bed together playing a video game. I guess the parents don't care about their kids getting the virus or bringing it home and spreading it. Hundreds of thousands of people will pay the price with their health or possibly their life for things the ignorant and undisciplined people will do in this country and there's really nothing we can do about it.
 
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Europe was in a sad state in the late 1800's. No jobs, no homes, poor government, etc.

My entire family came to the USA in 1894. The men were stone masons and they came here to find a better life. And they did.

They found work, were able to expand their families with more US born children, and they were even able to buy houses.

By about 1907 exactly half of the family had died due to tuburculosis. By 1917 several more of the men died in WWI.

The 1918 plague didn't phase the family one iota. By that time more than half the family was gone already.

We can talk all day about current events, but this isn't the first time, and today we'll fare much better because back in 1907 there was no "modern" medicine.
 
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