Defining a SHTF scenario

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oddshooter

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We now have two threads on Just One Gun.
1. I think the threads would be better if the OP would define SHTF. Flood, Fire, earthquake, Tsunami, radioactivity, virus, tornado, hurricane, comet, social unrest?

2. How long will it last? How many people will I have?

3. Necessities in order:
Water, Food, Shelter, Medicine, Weapon/Ammo, Transport, Trade items, Cell, Camp,
Is water more important than guns? I'm maybe good for 2-3 days w/o water.
Water filtration becomes the number one trade item; 5 guns for 1 life straw that costs $15 originally. Can you list trade items?

Each disaster has it's own circumstances and different needs. Katrina was a wake-up call for me as I spent 3 months working to help folks survive. Folks will take from folks who have.

4. Am I staying home playing defense? Weight doesn't matter, or sound. Is water still running.
Am I motoring out of town? Weight doesn't matter; hiding will rule. Are freeways frozen?
Am I biking or walking out of town? Weight is CRITICAL! mobility is 2nd. A 22lr sw317 is my choice.

I've got an excel spreadsheet with the different disaster types listed. I try to use real disasters to study what the variable are for each. It seems most folks seem to assume a day of inconvenience; not months of social anarchy.

I've got a Bug Out Bag inside an Armageddon bag. I've also got a Daily Med kit bag inside a multi-person, multi-week full Medical Case. I can grab the level I need as I head for the door. There's also a Get Home bag always in the cars.

This all comes from doing Solo boating on the ocean and on the gigantic Lake Powell for weeks at a time. I would rarely see anyone for days. Since boats explode/or sink regularly; I had a BOB hanging on the rail for grabbing as I jumped overboard.

Lots of you guys prepare for hard times by buying often and stacking deep when ammo is cheap and plentiful. Do the same with preparing for a disaster however you define it.

At USC studying Psychology, we played the Disaster Simulation Game. That game taught me a ton of what happens during SHTF scenarios; nobody knew where their family was, phones broke down, emergency systems collapsed. Travel became impossible.

Appropriately, I just watched Deep Impact last night. That's an E.L.E. Extinction Level Event. Forget the Prep, just enjoy.

Please help me find the variables that distinguish one disaster from another. chew #3 to pieces please.

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I have read that in a real SHTF situation, trading stock will be essential for survival, the recommendation being that gold, silver, ammunition, tobacco, and liquor are the best merchandise types to have stockpiled for trading. I can think of several other items that might also work well, such as (but not limited to) canned or otherwise non-perishable food, medical supplies, and toiletries.

Does anyone else remember the old Don Johnson movie "A Boy and his Dog"? And what the dog was good at?
 
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DWalt said:
I have read that in a real SHTF situation, trading stock will be essential for survival, the recommendation being that gold, silver, ammunition, tobacco, and liquor are the best merchandise types to have stockpiled for trading. I can think of several other items that might also work well, such as (but not limited to) canned or otherwise non-perishable food, medical supplies, and toiletries.

Does anyone else remember the old Don Johnson movie "A Boy and his Dog"? And what the dog was good at?
Click to expand...

Quite a few people found out about what is really essential in this last little hiccup. I spent formative years living among the Mormons in Utah, having a supply of essentials is a good idea and enough for more than a few days, weeks, months is all the better. A quality water supply is essential, probably more than anything else and one that is often overlooked, being able to store and purify that water is also important. As you mentioned trade goods would be valuable, I would add hand tools, a simple shovel, pick and axe would go a long way. We had a broker years ago that got religion, cashed in her chips, moved off the grid. She took a significant amount of money and invested in those very items, shovels, picks, axes, hoes, rakes...tucked it away in a storage unit on her property and felt very smug about it, she was also a gold and silver bug and some of what she espoused made good sense. She reckoned that if it ever came to a financial collapse it would be wise to have silver dimes, quarters and halves as well as dollars because that way if you just wanted a dozen eggs you could pay a dime or in current value ($1.50) silver content.
 
Ain't that the truth, Cajun Lawyer!

I worked Katrina as an LEO. The SHTF then.

The "underbelly" of New Orleans, the drug dealers landed in FEMA trailer parks moved here.
They were dealt with quickly and quietly. They found easier pickings in Houston.
Now, NO One wants to welcome anyone from NO.
 
Ask yourself if you had a limited item of high value what you would trade for. I believe in a true SHTF situation it would be a long time before currency is re-established. I would much more have iron to trade than silver or gold. Put that iron in the form of pins, needles and thread, shovels, axes, picks, hoes, blades, scythes, and knowledge to use them and you might be ahead.
 
In a real SHTF situation what makes you think you’re going to know what’s going on?

I think being able to make decisions and adjust on the fly will be more valuable than choosing the “right” firearm.

But there’s no fun in discussing mental acuity.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Rushing1 said:
Ain't that the truth, Cajun Lawyer!

I worked Katrina as an LEO. The SHTF then.

The "underbelly" of New Orleans, the drug dealers landed in FEMA trailer parks moved here.
They were dealt with quickly and quietly. They found easier pickings in Houston.
Now, NO One wants to welcome anyone from NO.
Click to expand...

Same about San Antonio. We had numerous Katrina refugees relocate here, most of them not the most solid of citizens, some to my immediate area. I know there was a brief upsurge in local criminal activity. I believe the majority of them moved on to greener pastures.
 
Lets be real. I think that if there's SHTF good health ought to be #1 on the list. If you're in bad health and/or dependent on prescription drugs, like blood pressure meds, for example, time is ticking. That also includes being able to physically able to do things, like walk, walk a distance with a load.

Again good health should be #1.
 
mtgianni said:
Ask yourself if you had a limited item of high value what you would trade for. I believe in a true SHTF situation it would be a long time before currency is re-established. I would much more have iron to trade than silver or gold. Put that iron in the form of pins, needles and thread, shovels, axes, picks, hoes, blades, scythes, and knowledge to use them and you might be ahead.
Click to expand...

There's an argument against money. Most wouldn't be too interested in trading for the fiat paper currency and coinage we now have, but I think hard currency in the form of gold and silver would remain desirable by most, even under the worst circumstances. Regarding ammunition or guns as trading stock, there is always the possibility that they could be used against you. Some hand tools (not power tools as there is no assurance there will be any electricity to use them) might be acceptable as barter items. I can see a future in narcotics-based trading also if you happen to have some put away. Uncontaminated water would be desirable, except for the difficulty in its storage and transportation. Might be better to hoard bottled bleach which could be used to purify water from whatever questionable sources it can be obtained.
 
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Ματθιας;140923236 said:
Lets be real. I think that if there's SHTF good health ought to be #1 on the list. If you're in bad health and/or dependent on prescription drugs, like blood pressure meds, for example, time is ticking. That also includes being able to physically able to do things, like walk, walk a distance with a load.

Again good health should be #1.
Click to expand...

I have accumulated close to a year's supply of the most essential prescription medications I need, just against the possibility I may need them in a SHTF situation. Fortunately my wife doesn't need the quantities of prescription drugs that I do. Also good that she happens to be an advanced degree RN who has spent most of her working life teaching clinical nursing at the college level and has worked with almost every medical condition afflicting humans.
 
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quikdraw67 said:
It's all perspective.

If I get caught in bed with my neighbor's wife that would be a true SHTF moment.

No amount of freeze dried food, water purification tablets, or energy bars will help me.

Body armor might come in handy though. :D
Click to expand...

At the Pearly Gate:

What did you die from?

Seenus.

You mean sinus?

Seenus. I was in bed with my neighbor’s wife and he seen us.
 
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