I have access to a gentleman who is an energetics expert. I asked him about smokeless powder lifetime.
He told me that powder starts deteriorating the day it leaves the powder mill. The rate of deterioration of double based powders is governed by the Arrhenius equation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrhenius_equation. Single based powders apparently deteriorate in a linear fashion.
What the expert told me was that double base powders are made of nitroglycerine (NG) and nitrocellulose (NC). The NG wants to wick its way, through capillary action, into the NC. In the process of combination nitric acid gas is released. This process is a consequence of the chemical attraction between NG and NC trying to combine to form a lower energy state molecule. There are preventive stabilizers in the powder which either slow the reaction down, or eat up the nitric acid. I forget the exact function. The stabilizers get consumed over time.
Heat accelerates the combination process. Exposing powder to high temperatures for extended periods of time is bad. The expert said, if you could freeze the powder without introducing water, you could slow the process down.
Cool dry storage conditions, he actually said “artic”, are about the best for long term storage of powder.
The expert said that powders are initially tested 10 years. (I think, could have been 20 years). They put a paper in contact with the powder. If the paper changes color, nitric gas is present.
If the paper shows a problem, they then chemically test the powder for the amount of stabilizer in the powder. If that drops below 20% original, than the powder is scrapped. You have to have the original powder records to know how much stabilizer was in the powder.
If the powder changes color, it is bad. It is grossly bad. It was bad a long time before the color changed. And it is time to pour it out. That is when you typically see red in the powder can (acid gas eating the can up) and red powder.
I was told that when enough nitric acid is released, the powder will spontaneously combust. As the Military is extremely scandal sensitive, they won’t tell anyone that big bunkers have blown up. And that fires in storage depots happen quite often.
The Navy used to storage cannon powder in pools. I guess the water absorbed the nitric acid, or kept everything cool preventing heat build up.
I have had half of my surplus 4895 powders go bad. About 8 pounds turned red and was poured out. About 8 pounds did not turn red, but went bad in the case. First indications that I had a problem were that loaded cartridges started having a lot of split case necks on firing. Then case necks started to crack on the loaded ammunition. When I pulled bullets, I smelt nothing, in the case or in the bottle, but I found green corrosion on the bottom of bullets. I believe that nitric acid was weakening the work hardened areas of the case, and causing corrosion on the bottom of the bullets.
Incidentally, the powder shot exceptionally well, that is for cases that did not have case neck cracks. I shot some exceptional scores with the stuff at 600 yards with 168 Match bullets, just after loading.