RM Vivas
US Veteran
I don’t think anyone amongst us has not looked at old gun ads and thought about how much we wish we could have been around when a new M&P was $55.
Where we get short-sighted is in thinking that the $55 price is such a deal; compared to what we pay for an M10 today, it is. Or is it?
Under no circumstance can I be considered an economist. Hell, I can’t even do middle-level math. My mathematical skills are limited to calculating a decent tip and figuring out how many gallons of gas I can get out of a $20 bill (a number rapidly approaching 1!).
I digress….
When looking at the price of a revolver, we can’t look at the dollar amount charged. Instead we must look at the -value/purchasing power- that is charged.
They way I do that is to look at the cost of a revolver in 19xx and then what the average American annual income was in 19xx. I then represent the cost of the revolver not in dollars ($xx) but percentage of 19xx income (%x.xxxxx) it took to buy that revolver.
In 1967 the median income was $5,934 and the cost of a 4 inch M&P blued .38 Special was $71.50. Thus, the cost of a 1967 revolver was %1.204921 of the annual income.
In 1987 the median income was $23,596 and the cost of the same revolver was now $282; that’s 4 times what it had cost 20 years earlier.
HOWEVER, if that 1987 cost is represented as a percentage of annual income, it cost %1.195118; it actually cost slightly less in 1987 than in 1967 in terms of purchasing power needed to buy that revolver.
I’ve only looked at figures for the past fifty years but seem that a 4 inch blued M&P .38 Special has stayed between a low of %0.78713 in 1980 to a high of 1.624587 in 2010.
The lowest figure represents when the US was just coming out of the Carter recession and the 2010 represents when the US was getting deeper into the 2008 fallout.
The 2010 high is really an outlier with the figure falling back to the %1.05-1.30 range for the rest of the 201x’s.
Generally speaking, the price for a S&W Model 10 blued 4 inch .38 special has remained fairly consistent in terms of purchasing power. Removing the outliers, the price has stayed between %0.8 and %1.3 of the median income.
Year Nominal $ M10 %
1967 $5,934 $ 71.50 1.204921
1968 $6,421 $ 71.50 1.113534
1969 $7,043 $ 76.50 1.086185
1970 $7,368 $ 76.50 1.038274
1971 $7,626 $ 84.00 1.101495
1972 $8,198 $ 84.00 1.02464
1973 $8,915 $ 92.00 1.031969
1974 $9,554 $ 96.00 1.004815
1975 $10,154 $ 102.00 1.00453
1976 $10,947 $ 109.00 0.995707
1977 $11,692 $ 109.00 0.932261
1978 $13,098 $ 119.50 0.912353
1979 $14,526 $ 119.50 0.822663
1980 $15,944 $ 125.50 0.78713
1981 $17,300 $ 143.00 0.82659
1982 $18,347 $ 171.75 0.93612
1983 $18,797 $ 192.00 1.02144
1984 $20,196 $ 220.00 1.089325
1985 $21,317 $ 226.50 1.062532
1986 $22,482 $ 247.00 1.098657
1987 $23,596 $ 282.00 1.195118
1988 $24,772 $ 287.00 1.158566
1989 $26,440 $ 305.00 1.153555
1990 $27,522 $ 323.00 1.173607
1991 $27,842 $ 333.00 1.196035
1992 $28,424 $ 333.00 1.171545
1993 $29,143 $ 346.00 1.187249
1994 $30,247 $ 361.00 1.193507
1995 $32,036 $ 375.00 1.170558
1996 $33,447 $ 390.00 1.166024
1997 $34,952 $ 390.00 1.115816
1998 $36,802 $ 397.00 1.078746
1999 $38,523 0
2000 $39,772 $ 420.00 1.056019
2001 $39,978 $ 458.00 1.14563
2002 $40,125 $ 458.00 1.141433
2003 $41,039 $ 496.00 1.208606
2004 $41,952 $ 496.00 1.182304
2005 $43,861 $ 496.00 1.130845
2006 $45,618 $ 544.00 1.192512
2007 $47,549 $ 572.00 1.20297
2008 $47,624 $ 632.00 1.327062
2009 $47,126 $ 687.00 1.457794
2010 $46,658 $ 758.00 1.624587
2011 $47,368 $ 758.00 1.600236
2012 $48,291 $ 758.00 1.569651
I missed the entry for 1999, sorry.
This only covers 1967 to 2012.
My goal is to have 1922-2022 charted out. I think it would be interesting. Here’s some pricing:
4 inch 4 inch HB
1951 $ 56.50
1952 $ 62.00
1953 $ 62.00
1954 $ 62.00
1955 $ 61.62
1956 $ 61.60
1957 $ 61.60
1958 $ 62.00
1959 $ 62.00
1960 $ 62.00 $ 65.00
1961 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1962 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1963 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1964 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1965 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1966 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1967 $ 65.00 $ 71.50
1968 $ 71.00 $ 71.50
1969 $ 76.50 $ 76.50
1970 $ 76.50 $ 76.50
1971 $ 84.00 $ 84.00
1972 $ 84.00 $ 84.00
1973 $ 92.00 $ 92.00
1974 $ 96.00 $ 96.00
1975 $ 102.00 $ 102.00
1976 $ 109.00 $ 109.00
1977 $ 109.00 $ 109.00
1978 $ 119.50 $ 119.50
1979 $ 119.50 $ 119.50
1980 $ 125.50 $ 125.50
1981 $ 143.00 $ 143.00
1982 $ 171.75 $ 171.75
1983 $ 192.00 $ 192.00
1984 $ 220.00 $ 220.00
1985 $ 226.50 $ 226.50
1986 $ 247.00 $ 247.00
1987 $ 282.00 $ 282.00
1988 $ 287.00
1989 $ 305.00 $ 305.00
1990 $ 323.00 $ 323.00
1991 $ 333.00 $ 333.00
1992 $ 333.00 $ 333.00
1993 $ 346.00 $ 346.00
1994 $ 361.00 $ 361.00
1995 $ 368.00 $ 375.00
1996 $ 383.00 $ 390.00
1997 $ 383.00 $ 390.00
1998 $ 397.00
1999
2000 $ 420.00
2001 $ 458.00
2002 $ 458.00
2003 $ 496.00
2004 $ 496.00
2005 $ 496.00
2006 $ 544.00
2007 $ 572.00
2008 $ 632.00
2009 $ 687.00
2010 $ 758.00
2011 $ 758.00
2012 $ 758.00
Some caveats:
I have to pick a revolver that S&W makes that is not subject to wild market fluctuations (Model 29’s every time a Clint Eastwood movie comes out) and that has a consistent configuration. It’s not prudent to expect a 1929 4 inch M&P to be comparably priced to a nickel M10 with a 2 inch barrel in 1975.
For this reason I chose the M&P, blued, 4 inch, .38 special. There is some unavoidable variation, such as when the tapered barrel was dropped in favor of the HB and the SB dropped in favor of the RB, but otherwise it’s the only S&W revolver with a continuous history in the same configuration. Prices are from factory data, Gun Digest or Stoegers. The point for pricing is that it be either from the factory or the stated factory MSRP (as S&W would provide to publications like Gun Digest, Shooters Bible, etc.).
The income data is much more complicated. It is very vexing to find ONE source for annual average income over such a l;arge timeline. Theres US Census, Treasury, IRS, etc. Its also tricky because I need the gross income figure and it must be either all median or all mean average. When you get right down to it, the significant difference between mean average income v. median average income is not relevant as what is being measured is a consistent percentage. The figures are relevant to other percentages and not so much the actual dollar figures.
I postulate that, within certain statistical parameters, the price of a S&W M&P/m10 in a specific configuration has not -substantially- changed in 100 years when viewed as a percentage of purchasing power.
I’ll be working on this theory over the next couple weeks. I’m also going to try and graph the percentage of annual increase in revolver costs with the annual inflation rate and see how closely revolver prices follow that.
Where we get short-sighted is in thinking that the $55 price is such a deal; compared to what we pay for an M10 today, it is. Or is it?
Under no circumstance can I be considered an economist. Hell, I can’t even do middle-level math. My mathematical skills are limited to calculating a decent tip and figuring out how many gallons of gas I can get out of a $20 bill (a number rapidly approaching 1!).
I digress….
When looking at the price of a revolver, we can’t look at the dollar amount charged. Instead we must look at the -value/purchasing power- that is charged.
They way I do that is to look at the cost of a revolver in 19xx and then what the average American annual income was in 19xx. I then represent the cost of the revolver not in dollars ($xx) but percentage of 19xx income (%x.xxxxx) it took to buy that revolver.
In 1967 the median income was $5,934 and the cost of a 4 inch M&P blued .38 Special was $71.50. Thus, the cost of a 1967 revolver was %1.204921 of the annual income.
In 1987 the median income was $23,596 and the cost of the same revolver was now $282; that’s 4 times what it had cost 20 years earlier.
HOWEVER, if that 1987 cost is represented as a percentage of annual income, it cost %1.195118; it actually cost slightly less in 1987 than in 1967 in terms of purchasing power needed to buy that revolver.
I’ve only looked at figures for the past fifty years but seem that a 4 inch blued M&P .38 Special has stayed between a low of %0.78713 in 1980 to a high of 1.624587 in 2010.
The lowest figure represents when the US was just coming out of the Carter recession and the 2010 represents when the US was getting deeper into the 2008 fallout.
The 2010 high is really an outlier with the figure falling back to the %1.05-1.30 range for the rest of the 201x’s.
Generally speaking, the price for a S&W Model 10 blued 4 inch .38 special has remained fairly consistent in terms of purchasing power. Removing the outliers, the price has stayed between %0.8 and %1.3 of the median income.
Year Nominal $ M10 %
1967 $5,934 $ 71.50 1.204921
1968 $6,421 $ 71.50 1.113534
1969 $7,043 $ 76.50 1.086185
1970 $7,368 $ 76.50 1.038274
1971 $7,626 $ 84.00 1.101495
1972 $8,198 $ 84.00 1.02464
1973 $8,915 $ 92.00 1.031969
1974 $9,554 $ 96.00 1.004815
1975 $10,154 $ 102.00 1.00453
1976 $10,947 $ 109.00 0.995707
1977 $11,692 $ 109.00 0.932261
1978 $13,098 $ 119.50 0.912353
1979 $14,526 $ 119.50 0.822663
1980 $15,944 $ 125.50 0.78713
1981 $17,300 $ 143.00 0.82659
1982 $18,347 $ 171.75 0.93612
1983 $18,797 $ 192.00 1.02144
1984 $20,196 $ 220.00 1.089325
1985 $21,317 $ 226.50 1.062532
1986 $22,482 $ 247.00 1.098657
1987 $23,596 $ 282.00 1.195118
1988 $24,772 $ 287.00 1.158566
1989 $26,440 $ 305.00 1.153555
1990 $27,522 $ 323.00 1.173607
1991 $27,842 $ 333.00 1.196035
1992 $28,424 $ 333.00 1.171545
1993 $29,143 $ 346.00 1.187249
1994 $30,247 $ 361.00 1.193507
1995 $32,036 $ 375.00 1.170558
1996 $33,447 $ 390.00 1.166024
1997 $34,952 $ 390.00 1.115816
1998 $36,802 $ 397.00 1.078746
1999 $38,523 0
2000 $39,772 $ 420.00 1.056019
2001 $39,978 $ 458.00 1.14563
2002 $40,125 $ 458.00 1.141433
2003 $41,039 $ 496.00 1.208606
2004 $41,952 $ 496.00 1.182304
2005 $43,861 $ 496.00 1.130845
2006 $45,618 $ 544.00 1.192512
2007 $47,549 $ 572.00 1.20297
2008 $47,624 $ 632.00 1.327062
2009 $47,126 $ 687.00 1.457794
2010 $46,658 $ 758.00 1.624587
2011 $47,368 $ 758.00 1.600236
2012 $48,291 $ 758.00 1.569651
I missed the entry for 1999, sorry.
This only covers 1967 to 2012.
My goal is to have 1922-2022 charted out. I think it would be interesting. Here’s some pricing:
4 inch 4 inch HB
1951 $ 56.50
1952 $ 62.00
1953 $ 62.00
1954 $ 62.00
1955 $ 61.62
1956 $ 61.60
1957 $ 61.60
1958 $ 62.00
1959 $ 62.00
1960 $ 62.00 $ 65.00
1961 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1962 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1963 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1964 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1965 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1966 $ 65.00 $ 65.00
1967 $ 65.00 $ 71.50
1968 $ 71.00 $ 71.50
1969 $ 76.50 $ 76.50
1970 $ 76.50 $ 76.50
1971 $ 84.00 $ 84.00
1972 $ 84.00 $ 84.00
1973 $ 92.00 $ 92.00
1974 $ 96.00 $ 96.00
1975 $ 102.00 $ 102.00
1976 $ 109.00 $ 109.00
1977 $ 109.00 $ 109.00
1978 $ 119.50 $ 119.50
1979 $ 119.50 $ 119.50
1980 $ 125.50 $ 125.50
1981 $ 143.00 $ 143.00
1982 $ 171.75 $ 171.75
1983 $ 192.00 $ 192.00
1984 $ 220.00 $ 220.00
1985 $ 226.50 $ 226.50
1986 $ 247.00 $ 247.00
1987 $ 282.00 $ 282.00
1988 $ 287.00
1989 $ 305.00 $ 305.00
1990 $ 323.00 $ 323.00
1991 $ 333.00 $ 333.00
1992 $ 333.00 $ 333.00
1993 $ 346.00 $ 346.00
1994 $ 361.00 $ 361.00
1995 $ 368.00 $ 375.00
1996 $ 383.00 $ 390.00
1997 $ 383.00 $ 390.00
1998 $ 397.00
1999
2000 $ 420.00
2001 $ 458.00
2002 $ 458.00
2003 $ 496.00
2004 $ 496.00
2005 $ 496.00
2006 $ 544.00
2007 $ 572.00
2008 $ 632.00
2009 $ 687.00
2010 $ 758.00
2011 $ 758.00
2012 $ 758.00
Some caveats:
I have to pick a revolver that S&W makes that is not subject to wild market fluctuations (Model 29’s every time a Clint Eastwood movie comes out) and that has a consistent configuration. It’s not prudent to expect a 1929 4 inch M&P to be comparably priced to a nickel M10 with a 2 inch barrel in 1975.
For this reason I chose the M&P, blued, 4 inch, .38 special. There is some unavoidable variation, such as when the tapered barrel was dropped in favor of the HB and the SB dropped in favor of the RB, but otherwise it’s the only S&W revolver with a continuous history in the same configuration. Prices are from factory data, Gun Digest or Stoegers. The point for pricing is that it be either from the factory or the stated factory MSRP (as S&W would provide to publications like Gun Digest, Shooters Bible, etc.).
The income data is much more complicated. It is very vexing to find ONE source for annual average income over such a l;arge timeline. Theres US Census, Treasury, IRS, etc. Its also tricky because I need the gross income figure and it must be either all median or all mean average. When you get right down to it, the significant difference between mean average income v. median average income is not relevant as what is being measured is a consistent percentage. The figures are relevant to other percentages and not so much the actual dollar figures.
I postulate that, within certain statistical parameters, the price of a S&W M&P/m10 in a specific configuration has not -substantially- changed in 100 years when viewed as a percentage of purchasing power.
I’ll be working on this theory over the next couple weeks. I’m also going to try and graph the percentage of annual increase in revolver costs with the annual inflation rate and see how closely revolver prices follow that.
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