See the link to a recent 5/21/21 article at The Reload on the subject of the ongoing ammo shortage. Quotes from Winchester and Hornady officials. The big makers don't seem to foresee this shortage going away anytime soon, even though all of them are cranking out ammo 24/7. A number of reasons for the shortage are offered. Raw materials appear to be in short supply as well.

Manufacturers Say Ammo Shortage Will Stretch Out for Years › The Reload

I attended the Lakeland Gun Show last weekend. I noticed that there was plenty of ammo around in all calibers, but it was pricey. So, there is ammo available at Florida shows but cheap ammo appears to be a thing of the past, at least for the next couple of years.

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Charlie Flick
SWCA 729 HF 215

Odd ain't it? I had been looking for 50/70 brass and I know "who the hell needs to be shooting a 50/70?" Anyway long story short it was all but unobtainium for months, unless you wanted to pay $5 or more per round. I ended up literally trading silver for brass and did get some excellent brass was a bit stung on the price. I had placed an order with Buffalo Arms in the hopes that it would speed things up a bit, that order was for 250 pieces at nearly a buck a piece...which is a bargain. They did not know when it would be coming in, I actually called Starline and talked to a guy from the tech department and he said "We don't even have a schedule for setting up for 50/70." Hence the silver for brass trade took place, that was months ago. The other day I got an email from Buffalo Arms, my brass is on the way...I got a nice big box of shiney 50/70 brass. When it rains it pours.
On a side note I have noticed ammo coming back on the shelves at different outlets, lots of 338 Lapua...oddball calibers, but some .308 as well, not much in the pistol department although some coming back. People are paying $50 a box of 50 for premium 9mm. I'm currently sitting pretty on what I shoot but would still like to see it come back at a reasonable price, especially target .22 stuff, thats about all I don't reload for.

I will post a sign on my door. “DEAR HOME INVADER PLEASE RETURN IN TWO YEARS WHEN I CAN AFFORD TO SHOOT YOU”

There’s no ammo shortage around my place If you’re talking about the shortage of cheap ammo think four years minimum

The shortage is (IMHO) being driven as much by political fear as it is by purely market forces. It therefore is not going to chance before there is a political change as well as improvement in market condition, supply chain, etc.

I agree. Also note that copper is at record high prices and lead production in the US is at an all time low with correspondingly high market prices. Other metals such as zinc and nickel (copper + zinc = brass, copper + nickel = gilding metal aka: bullet jackets) are also at or near record highs. Shipping costs have increased dramatically and continue to rise, and shipping is a necessary factor from the mine to the refinery, on to the distributors, then to the manufacturer, and finally out to the consumer market.

Throw in the costs of labor and the current difficulties experienced by any business trying to fill open positions, it all adds up.

In the meantime, manufacturers will be struggling to recover from over a year of forced shutdowns, so may be expected to concentrate production capacity on those products providing the highest profit margins. Also, smaller volume producers may find themselves in competition for raw materials and skilled labor.

Some economists are beginning to speak in terms of "hyper-inflation".

Wow! I got through all that without even mentioning politics! How about that?

Geez Lobo!... You almost made it ... all except for that fourth word from the end.....

Available ammo and affordable available ammo are two different things, I’m sure we all have a buy in price.

I’ve decided to up mine even though I still have ammo, choice is yours pine for the “good old days” or prep for the future.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Since the last lead smelter in the U.S. closed a number of years ago I guess the U.S. production of refined lead is zero. What we still mine must go to Canada for smelting or something. China produces half the world production.

Prices on cast bullets don't seem to have gone up all that much, but some. That could just be due to demand. More shooters might start turning to cast over plated/jacketed.

Copper is probably going to stay up. I read that every windmill used for electricity production uses somewhere between 3-5 TONS of copper. Not to mention all these electric motors in electric cars. If you sit down and research this a bit you'll probably come to the conclusion that it's going to be tough to meet these goals.

Interesting tidbit... "Copper was $2.45 a pound a year ago. Today it’s trading at $4.50. And that is, in my career of 51 years, the all-time high. We go through several hundred pounds of copper a month."

That's a pretty miniscule amount of copper...relatively speaking.

I think the quoted figure of 2+ years of ammo shortages is highly optimistic.

Orders are backlogged several years; demand is very high; production and distribution costs are high; and nothing in the current climate suggests anything will change in the next 2 (4? 6?) years. Sad but true.

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Alan
SWCA LM 2023, SWHF 220

It was SIX years after Sandy Hook before any 22 was readily available...

Two years.? He's being overly optimistic.

Inflation is running so hot in EVERYTHING as stated in some of the posts above... don't ever expect pricing like "before" unless the moon and stars align perfectly...
I just don't see it.

good luck.

I believe that both brass and gilding metal are mostly made up of copper and zinc.

Copper and nickel, cupronickel used to be used for bullet jackets, but I think it fell out of favor to gilding metal due to cupronickel's higher propensity to foul rifle bores.

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Dave Brown
SWCA #3279

I hope that you are joking?

I will shoot any fool that attacks my family or my home. I have plenty of ammo.
__________________Joking of course. Not sure a lot of home invaders can read so if you are an armed invader you die and I would hope to sue your family for the cost of the ammo. [sarcasm]

Personally, the way everyone seems to be lying and have an agenda I’m having a hard time believing what folks from Hornady and Remington say about the “shortage”. Especially since they stand to profit from it.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but the ammo companies could’ve banded together to cause all this. I sincerely hope I’m wrong.
As far as my “ammo status”, if I continue shooting at my current rate and with my ability to reload, a couple more years won’t be a problem.

If the “climate” doesn’t improve people will continue to buy up anything they can especially as they become accustomed to higher prices. Just my thoughts but I am seriously watching prices as inflation seems to be ramping up on everything . today’s prices may be cheaper than than it will be tomorrow. I am not giving up what time I have left to enjoy my hunting and shooting to save a few dollars. Had enough Dr. visits to make me a believer.

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Hue 68 noli me tangere

I’m just gonna send ‘em a bill . . .

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Wisdom comes thru fear . . .

I can go without for at least 2 years. If it takes two or three years to start coming back where shelves are stocked then primers will be at least three or four before they are available as I don't think reloader's will get any while they are producing ammo overtime.

They may very well have those orders. They also may get canceled at a high rate.

A lot of these companies panicked and canceled everything when the shutdown hit. They grossly underestimated the speed and intensity of the rebound. They got caught short.

I've been watching reloading equipment on eBay, especially 9mm Luger dies sets and 9mm Luger Lee Classic Loaders. Prices have come back down to normal.

That's about as likely as all the toilet paper companies banding together to create shortages last year. Or that sawmills are deliberately restricting output to raise prices. Or builders stopped building houses to raise the price.

I agree with the other posters that due to raw material cost increases ammo prices are probably going to be somewhat higher in the future, as is the case with pretty much everything. But eventually people are going to realize buying $600 cases of FMJ 9mm is like offering $80,000 over asking price for house. If you need something right now that may be what you have to do but if you just want it waiting is a better option. Even if you have to wait a year or two.

I walked into Academy in Selma, TX this weekend and there was 308, 5.56, and 22's just sitting on the shelf. I have not seen that this year.

Ah.... K-Rapp... looks like I actually "may" have to consider melting/smelting my own...
Truth be told, I could probably meter myself at ~50rds/week and be good for the next 12yr or so. So,...that ain't bad... but who knows...

The biggest thing is that with the powder/bullets/cases/primers that I still have on hand, I do NOT need any of that bottom-feeding ammo offerings.

I do know that at "some point" I need to take a deep breath and just use what I have... but we'll see...

So, all things considered, I am lucking to still be so well prepared.

Law of supply and demand: If you keep the supply low you can keep the prices up as long as possible.

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Why duck?? It's a 9mm!

Around two years ago I found 10k CCI large P primers for 200$ at an estate sale. I only took 5k because I did not like the price of powder near 30$/pound, and I still don't. I may see a cross bow in my future.

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"Don't Give Up the Ship"

Orders may be backlogged, but I have to wonder just how many of those orders are duplicates (made so a vendor keeps his name "on the list" for the earliest possible delivery) and will end up being cancelled when the supply starts to catch up with demand. Or perhaps when backorders are filled how many will be cancelled because of the price increases.

I do see a glimmer of hope - the price of .380ACP is now down to below $1/round and I'm seeing it actually in stock, where at the beginning of the year it was averaging $2/round and almost impossible to find.

We will just have to wait and see...

All I know is what I see. The LGS's around me are swimming in ammo right now. The price is also starting to drop some. I was in one of the shops last week and 9mm was $35 a box. It was higher than I need to pay but lower than the $45 a box it was a couple of months ago. Buy the time I got home, there was an email from another LGS located close by the other one. They were advertising $33 a box. Neither shop had a limit on 9mm. That was a couple of weeks ago and I haven't been back to see what the stock is like now. The owner on the $45 shop said they were starting to get regular deliveries and the foot traffic had slowed down quite a bit. When I was there, there was only one other person browsing. A couple of months ago, the same shop made you take a number to get waited on to buy a gun. I don't agree with the 2 year assessment. I think it has reached saturation in both price and demand and like everything else we're having a hard time getting right now, the supply chain will catch up.

The shooting sports are going to take the biggest hit they have ever taken because of the shortages.
I expect to see a lot of used medium to high quality O/U shotguns on the market over the next several years.
Same for all the other shooting disciplines.

I do not think it is any kind of conspiracy. If the manufacturers were holding back on production, word would have leaked out from multiple sources ( production workers, for example ) by now.
The ammunition producers and distributors could be shut down at any given time by Executive Order, and a lot of people know it. So they are getting what they can while they can.

Now all I shoot are percussion revolvers and flintlock rifles and shotguns, as they will do nearly everything I need to do with a gun.
The modern ammo I have is too precious of a commodity to burn up in target practice or hunting.

Pure speculation in my opinion. When I think of shortages of an item I think of something that is rare or no longer made. I do not equate "runs" or "panic buying" as shortages. The reason is if I can go down to the LGS, Flea Market, Pawn Shop, Gun Show, Friend with a trunk full of 9mm or some of the ammo sites and buy just about anything at a heavy inflated price well to me there is no shortages. Granted it was tough for a bit to get a "bulk" amount but since this whole mess started I have had zero issues getting ammo for range time it may have been at a price I did not like but I could still get it. If we truly want ammo to go down quit paying the inflated prices.

My question is now that there are, what, 25 million more gun owners, minus those who have died/quit shooting, isn't there now need for more capacity going forward? Shouldn't they be adding more production lines?