Rich,
In time, it's not too hard to project that the movement of pre-lock guns will decrease as prices continue to increase.
Yes, right now there are numerous older Smiths available. But- prices are escalating markedly on those, and some models are drying up.
S&W has no stocks of replacement barrels on many older models (19, 27, 28, for instance) and can't service them as they used to. Other parts to keep them going may or may not be available as time goes on.
In past years these guns circulated at a fairly constant rate, but that rate was predicated on ready access to new guns, and is showing signs of slowing as more of us who want older Smiths are buying & keeping them, which affects the number of guns in circulation.
Good specimens will be retained as shooters (with a side market for collectors), bad specimens will be cannabalized to keep the good ones going.
Parts availability will become a separate issue. Already S&W is using MIM parts (and plastic, in one instance I'm aware of) to replace forged/machined parts in older pistols that need work, where those parts are otherwise interchangeable.
In the case of revolvers, parts interchangeability between new and old can be more problematic.
It won't be today, and it won't be next week, but if the existing situation continues along predictable lines, given enough time, availability of the older guns will decrease and pricing will increase to the point where the only viable choices for an average consumer will be either a new Smith or no Smith.
It's a waiting game, and barring catastrophic external influences (government bans) or consumer boycott (unlikely at any significant level), S&W is coming out just fine & will most likely continue to sell the new lock-equipped guns well into the forseeable future.
The bottom line is $, and they're gettin' 'em.
Girvin,
I've been told by S&W that switching production back to pre-lock frames would involve new programming for the CNCs. I assumed from that that there are no "older backups" retained.
Besides which, there are other changes between current frames and pre-lock frames than merely the lock hole and the milled areas inside the frame that accommodate the lock pieces.
The location of the mainspring seat notch has moved, and there are other dimensional differences between older frames and new frames.
Running a pre-lock "backup" program merely to eliminate the lock hole would bring up other issues that would have to be addressed in assembling new parts on an old frame design.
My comments on the CNCs were directed at the Lunchbox Specials scenario. The CNC operator, as you know, does not write codes & does not program the sequencing. He or she pretty much fixes the raw forging in the fixture, punches the GO button, checks to make sure the fluids are flowing & the process is running smoothly as the machine runs, and removes the end product when it's done.
He or she is not in a very good position to alter programming on an individual machine to turn out one single non-spec frame; there are several machines in the line, others would notice, downtime in unit flow would probably be noticed, and so on.
It's not a simple thing to do.
Denis
) etc. If these guys, whom most of us know from their writings, are starting to publish articles saying the lock is possibly being dropped (at least on some guns), then it seems a lot more believable to us regular guys than just a bunch of speculations on some forum, by guys who are offering their opinion of what may, or may not be happening with S&W.
