The Ammo Shortage. What is the real truth. Questions.

[arjay]

The demand for ammo in the private sector is higher than it has ever been.We all know a few people who have had no interest in the sport who have been buying guns and ammo.Add in all the dormant owners who figure they better stock up while they can and here we are.

 

[gm272gs]

Every time a Democrat gets elected to the Office of President of the United States, people ("conservative" people) buy up all the AR-15s they can find, "before the gubmint takes 'em away". People who have never owned a firearm, go out and get one or two because they're afraid that they "won't be able to get 'em anymore". These same people buy up all the ammunition they can find, as well.

It is not rational, but it happens every time.
This last time, the craze has just lasted longer than anyone expected. It's still a problem, but not like it was in say, March. The problem with .22LR is that it will continue to be scarce now, because the crazies are playing up the smelter shutdown. This will continue to feed the frenzy, and now is driving up the cost of shotshells.

I would consider myself a "Conservative", and I just have to say that we are our own worst enemy, when it comes to this artificial "ammo shortage". Fear is a powerful thing, weather it has any foundation in fact, or not.

 

[scattershot]

I dunno how old most of you are, but I'm 67, and I've seen these shortages before. The mere hint of a shortage, and folks rush out and buy whatever it is, creating a real shortage. It happened in the 70's with gasoline, toilet paper, chocolate, coffee, sugar, and primers. This time around, I think folks are scared of what the current regime is going to do, and I can't say I blame them.

The current situation will probably not get much better soon, so buy what you need when you can find it, and hope for the best.

 

[gm272gs]

The demand for ammo in the private sector is higher than it has ever been.We all know a few people who have had no interest in the sport who have been buying guns and ammo.Add in all the dormant owners who figure they better stock up while they can and here we are.

I have been an NRA Instructor in Rifle, Pistol, and Shotgun for many years. I do it for fun and certainly not for profit. I have been inundated in the past year, by people who want to buy a pistol and get training. This past year has been decidedly different than the past twenty, in that respect.

 

[blujax01]

One

Hundred

Million

That's the number of firearm owners in the United States. If that many folks get interested in anything there will be a disturbance in The Force.

And I've been thinking about the 22 thing. True or not, the advice most folks receive when they buy their first gun is "get a 22, then when you can handle a larger caliber blah, blah, blah". And since the 22 platform is usually several hundreds of dollars cheaper than the same in a center fire, they go fast. As does the ammo to shoot in them.

 

[HorizontalMike]

Ammo Cheaper than it was 34yr Ago

Every time a Democrat gets elected to the Office of President of the United States, people ("conservative" people) buy up all the AR-15s they can find, "before the gubmint takes 'em away" ... These same people buy up all the ammunition they can find, as well...

...This last time, the craze has just lasted longer than anyone expected. ...The problem with .22LR is that it will continue to be scarce now, because the crazies are playing up the smelter shutdown...

I would consider myself a "Conservative", and I just have to say that we are our own worst enemy, when it comes to this artificial "ammo shortage". Fear is a powerful thing, weather it has any foundation in fact, or not.

Boy! Isn't this the truth!

On the plus side, I am finding centerfire rifle ammo to be in line or a bit cheaper than it was ~30yr ago. I found the price sticker on a couple of boxes of ammo I bought back in ~1979, and thought I would compare (below):

Remington 8mm Mauser 20rd

• In ~1979 it cost me $11.70 (or $39.68 in 2013 dollars)
  
• In 2013 it now costs $33.99 at BPS Now cheaper

Remington .222 50g PSP 20rd

• In ~1979 it cost me $9.65 (or $32.73 in 2013 dollars)
  
• In 2013 it now costs $22.99 at BPS Now cheaper

And Rimfire Ammo
CCI .22LR Mini-Mag 100rd

• In ~1979 it cost me $2.88 (or $9.77 in 2013 dollars)
• In 2013 it now costs $8.49 at BPS (when in stock) Now cheaper

I do want to say that my original date of purchase could be a couple of years earlier or later than 1979, but the jest of my point is that it appears that ammunition is Now cheaper than it was ~34yr ago, or at least equal to what it was back then if I am off on when I first purchased the price marked ammo.

 

[ladyT]

Your comparisons are of no value. Out of context and time.

Lets look at 2012 prices.

From the same caliber,brand ,bullet,same dealer and same time period.

9mm prices

2012-18 cents a round
2013- 34 cents a round

A near doubling in price.

Whats even worse is the cheap stuff from foreign sources are within a dollar of the American made ammo.

 

[shawn mccarver]

Whats even worse is the cheap stuff from foreign sources are within a dollar of the American made ammo.

Proof that former communists can get pretty good at capitalism pretty quick.

 

[HorizontalMike]

Adjusting for inflation correctly

Your comparisons are of no value. Out of context and time.

Lets look at 2012 prices.
From the same caliber,brand ,bullet,same dealer and same time period.
9mm prices
2012-18 cents a round
2013- 34 cents a round
A near doubling in price.
Whats even worse is the cheap stuff from foreign sources are within a dollar of the American made ammo.

I would beg to differ with you regarding context AND of value. My 1979 prices are inflation adjusted values from their 1979 dollar value to their worth in 2013.

YOUR quoting of prices in 2012 dollars AND in 2013 dollar prices ARE NOT adjusted for inflation, thus it is your 2012 value that is of no value. A 2012 $1.00 is worth $1.02 in 2013.

 

[ladyT]

I would beg to differ with you regarding context AND of value. My 1979 prices are inflation adjusted values from their 1979 dollar value to their worth in 2013.

YOUR quoting of prices in 2012 dollars AND in 2013 dollar prices ARE NOT adjusted for inflation, thus it is your 2012 value that is of no value. A 2012 $1.00 is worth $1.02 in 2013.

Look last November I could buy 9mm for 18 cents a round. Now I'm lucky to find it @34 cents a round. The cost of shooting for me has basically doubled.

 

[HorizontalMike]

Huh?

Look last November I could buy 9mm for 18 cents a round. Now I'm lucky to find it @34 cents a round. The cost of shooting for me has basically doubled.

And just what does that have to do with inflation adjusted prices over time? Be it one year OR +34yr? Do your math already. No one has said that a particular "single" year had or did not have an outrageous rate of inflation. All I offered was that averaged over ~34yr all this inflation looked much more tame than you give it credit for. These are the years that I lived though, buying ammunition and just living, NOT some textbook analogy.

Come look into MY ammo box and see what I paid for ammunition back in 1979. Do I actually need to post an image of my ammo with the price tabs on them? Give me a break already...

 

[brucev]

Re: Prices/inflation 2012-2013. Granted comparing prices from 1979 to 2013 will require significant adjustment for inflation. Average inflation for 2012 was 2.1%. Up through October average inflation for 2013 is 1.51%. That of course reflects a broad average of prices. Specific items will be higher or lower. In the case at hand, there is no doubt that the increases over the last 22 months (1/2012-10/2013) of prices for 9mm or any other ammunition has greatly exceeded the average inflation rate for that time period. The observation made that "the cost of shooting for me has basically doubled." is an accurate statement. Discounting it by referencing a broader time frame does not change that reality.

 

[HKSmith]

The current price of ammo and components compared with a year ago has nothing to do with inflation. The price of the two principle metal components of ammunition, lead and copper, have gone down in the last year, not up. The cost of producing ammo certainly hasn't gone up much more than inflation (labor and equipment). But when more shooters enter the market and some of them decide they need a 10 year supply of everything, demand outstrips supply and prices skyrocket. Just look on Gunbroker at the ammo auctions and you'll see plenty of ammo for sale - you just may not like the price.

So forget the conspiracy theories and remember what Pogo famously said - "We have met the enemy and they is us!".

 

[ArchAngelCD]

I'm so tired of hearing all the ammo is being bought up as soon as it hits the shelf. NOT!!!

The ammo is never making it to the shelf so something else is going on here. CCI alone produces over 3 million rounds a day. Add in Remington, Winchester, Federal pluss all the foreign manufacturers I'm guessing anywhere between 12 to 15 Million rounds a day are being made. NONE OF IT IS HITTING THE SHELVES so please tell me where all that ammo is???

All I want to do is take my kids and grandchildren to the range and shoot a handful of 22's without taking out a second mortgage on the house. I've had enough of this already. I want my country back!

 

[kenjen]

I was at dunhams the other day and they had everything but 22's. asked when they will be getting them in and he said a truck was coming in today in about 2-3 hours, he also said that they go as soon as they come in, that people will be coming in soon to wait for the truck. I had to go but came back 5hrs. later and they did come in and was told they were gone with in 30mins.i guess you got to camp out at these places if you want 22s......

 

[ladyT]

Thats the only way I've been able to get 22. So very little comes in that even when it does show up it disappears quickly even with a 1 or 2 box limit. Fact is the ammo is going somewhere other than my local gun shops or big retailers like walmart or Academy. It just isn't there.

 

[Warren Sear]

Proof that you can lead a conspiracy theorist to water, but you can't....

Oh, never mind.... This site needs a "slap forehead" icon for threads such as this.

 

[Warren Sear]

OK, how about this one: "You can always tell a conspiracy theorist; you just can't tell them much."

Wait, wait, ...they get better...!!!

 

[Tennreb]

Its going into hoarders' stockpiles.

When this first started nearly a year ago now, I was good to go with everything except 22lr. It just wasn't a priority. By February, when I found that I couldn't get it, it became one - coupled with the decision to shoot more .22 and save the more expensive centerfire.

I got the Wallyworld app and played the be there when it comes in game for the next three months... and was successful in getting a good stockpile and still be able to shoot once a week.

I saw the same people in line every time. Mostly retired gents who had the time to be there early and buy what came in.

By April I had managed to accumulate what I thought was a comfortable amount of .22lr to shoot through the spring and summer so I stopped playing the Walmart app thing.

About a week ago I decided it was time to replenish the .22 stockpile, since it was getting low. I quickly found out that if I wanted any .22 I would still have to do what I did months ago. What I have noticed is that the same people who were in line back then are still there now. They haven't stopped. They're not buying .223 and 9 mm anymore, but every box of .22 is being scarfed up. There's no way these codgers are going out and shooting that much. Some of them come in the store with walkers. But this has become a second occupation for them.

Its amazing. I don't see this ending as far as .22lr is concerned anytime soon. I'm 57 myself and have seen some panics and shortages... but nothing like this. 22lr is the new currency and medium of exchange.

 

[fyimo]

Its going into hoarders' stockpiles.

When this first started nearly a year ago now, I was good to go with everything except 22lr. It just wasn't a priority. By February, when I found that I couldn't get it, it became one - coupled with the decision to shoot more .22 and save the more expensive centerfire.

I got the Wallyworld app and played the be there when it comes in game for the next three months... and was successful in getting a good stockpile and still be able to shoot once a week.

I saw the same people in line every time. Mostly retired gents who had the time to be there early and buy what came in.

By April I had managed to accumulate what I thought was a comfortable amount of .22lr to shoot through the spring and summer so I stopped playing the Walmart app thing.

About a week ago I decided it was time to replenish the .22 stockpile, since it was getting low. I quickly found out that if I wanted any .22 I would still have to do what I did months ago. What I have noticed is that the same people who were in line back then are still there now. They haven't stopped. They're not buying .223 and 9 mm anymore, but every box of .22 is being scarfed up. There's no way these codgers are going out and shooting that much. Some of them come in the store with walkers. But this has become a second occupation for them.

Its amazing. I don't see this ending as far as .22lr is concerned anytime soon. I'm 57 myself and have seen some panics and shortages... but nothing like this. 22lr is the new currency and medium of exchange.

While I agree with what is stated above and that it is happening there is more going on then that as my Walmart stores used to receive a lot more then 10 bricks at a time and that's usually all my local walmart is getting when they get it.