A guide to using Gunbroker to determine value

[jtcarm]

"Price Check" and "What's this gun worth" are frequent questions on the forums, so I thought I would offer some advice on how to use the Gunbroker completed items search to determine average value.

I consider this a powerful tool, especially, if, like me, you don't have time to hit the shows and LGSes and/or can't find many specimens of the model of interest. Even if you can, this provides a snapshot of recent sales, whereas searches for enough physical specimens can take quite a while.

The one caveat is that precious few GB auctions give detailed info on mechanical and bore condition, the sort of stuff you'd look for in a used gun inspection.

So here's how I use it. Being a software developer, I insist on as accurate a measure as I can get. If you find any inaccuracies in what I say, have a different method, or just think I'm full of it, feel free to critique.

Completed Items Search:
I think you have to be registered and logged in to use this function.

"Advanced Search" button.
Click the "Completed Items" tab.

Since spellings of Smith and Wesson and what's in the title vary widely, I simply enter "Model ##" for the search words. Since dash numbers may or may not be in the title, I don't use them.

For a named model, you may want to use all or part of the name. You may have to do multiple searches to find all listings of interest.

Since I'm looking for a 2" Model 15, I start with the search term "Model 15". I select "Used" or "New Stock", and "Firearms" from the category dropdown:

This is going to return a bunch of hits you're not interested in, so use the "Subcategories" navigation on the left side to drill down on what you want.

Each time you click a subcategory link, it will return the results in that criteria and subcategories of that set. So you can get down to the specific items you want.

I start by selecting "Revolvers".

And here's the result:

Notice in the results I now have a "Manufacturer" and a "Model" category. I can drill all the way through Manufacturer on down, or jump straight to the Model 15s. I'll do the latter, but it's a good idea to go both ways since the results may differ.

2 Inch:



Note that up top you have check boxes showing the criteria. If you click the wrong category, just uncheck the box to back up.

Now that I have the results I want, it's time to get down to items that actually sold. The vast majority of completed items don't even get any bids, and even fewer actually resulted in a sale.

To find the stuff that sold, I sort the list on the "Bids" column in descending order. You have to click on the "Bids" heading to get it in descending order:



Note that "Featured Items" always come first, regardless of sort order.

Also note the red icon I've put a box around. This means there's a Reserved Price on it. If an item has bids and does not have this icon, it sold. If it does have it and has bids, you need to look at the detail to see if it sold.

Here's the one I had highligted:


This one obviously didn't sell.

Now it's time to start recording prices on the sold items.
Being nerdish, I use an excel spreadsheet, because it's easy to sort the item details and average the numbers however you want.

If a price is obviously way too low or high, I throw it out so it doesn't skew the average. None of that here, it's a narrow range:



This gives a raw average, but I want a better picture, so I view each item so I can note the the dash number and condition. I use the old NRA standards:

The numbers are about what you'd expect. The lower dash number and the better condition guns have the higher average price, but, I don't think a data set of 5 values is nearly big enough to give a valid picture. It would probably be best to include 4" guns, but that's more than I want to fool with in this example. Shorter barrels are generally higher, but it would be interesting to see if that holds true by including the 4" guns and averaging the same dash number and condition. I may do that later. Also, none of these included boxes, holsters, extra grips, or other extras you may want to take into account. The also all had original grips. I'd expect Goodyear grips to fetch a lower price. Obviously the full package of original box, papers, wax, cleaning tools & screwdriver should fetch much more.

Anyway, this shows recent 2" M-15s had an overall average of $590, $606 for -3s, and $611 for a -3 in Very Good to Excellent condition.

Your mileage may vary.

 

[iPac]

Go teach this to some the peeps on the Colt forum. If everyone would act this rational when it comes to pricing guns, the hobby would be so much more fun.

Nice post and thank you for taking the time to share with everyone how to drill down and the sorting methods.

 

[wheelgunguy]

And here I thought you just took the highest one if you're selling or collecting and the lowest one if you're buying.

Just kidding of course. Thanks for the post

 

[jtcarm]

Go teach this to some the peeps on the Colt forum. If everyone would act this rational when it comes to pricing guns, the hobby would be so much more fun.

Nice post and thank you for taking the time to share with everyone how to drill down and the sorting methods.

I belong to enough gun forums, I don't need another that I'm not even interested in

Feel free to post a hyperlink if you want, though.

 

[jackvs1]

Go teach this to some the peeps on the Colt forum. If everyone would act this rational when it comes to pricing guns, the hobby would be so much more fun.

Nice post and thank you for taking the time to share with everyone how to drill down and the sorting methods.

I am on the Colt forum all the time and if sellers there & on GB want to price their Colt guns at what you think is high, so be it, there are others willing to pay there asking price or get into a true auction. I would do it to.

 

[old bear]

jtcarm, very informative post, thank you. Now the downside you just managed to turn a fun pastime in to way to much work for this old man.

Let me make it even simpler for everyone: 1- find gun you want. 2- determine sellers asking price. 3- do I have the $$$. 4- if yes to number 3, buy the damn thing. 5- Explain, sooner or later, hopefully later to Ms. old bear what a great deal I just got. 5- Enjoy having the free time to shoot new revolver. 6- Start to decide what your next great deal is going to be

 

[jtcarm]

jtcarm, very informative post, thank you. Now the downside you just managed to turn a fun pastime in to way to much work for this old man.

Let me make it even simpler for everyone: 1- find gun you want. 2- determine sellers asking price. 3- do I have the $$$. 4- if yes to number 3, buy the damn thing. 5- Explain, sooner or later, hopefully later to Ms. old bear what a great deal I just got. 5- Enjoy having the free time to shoot new revolver. 6- Start to decide what your next great deal is going to be

Oh, that's just determining pricing. There's the auction and purchase task lists and schedules, planning strategies for sneaking it into the safe using a scale model of the home interior....

 

[Stephanie B]

I learned that technique from the proprietor of a LGS.

 

[ModernRifle]

yup.. click, click, there you go,

Or as best said by Boomhauer
"Yeah man, I tell ya what, man. That dang ol' Internet, man. You just go on there and point and click. Talk about W-W-dot-W-com. An' lotsa nekkid chicks on there, man. Click. Click. Click. Click. Click. It's real easy, man.?

 

[05CarbonDRZ]

Now the real question....How to price a Gun with NO completed Auction results?

 

[srsmyth]

Now the real question....How to price a Gun with NO completed Auction results?

That's easy, go back to the forum and ask.
Steve

 

[g27racing]

The only thing I would add is that I not only look for items that sold but items that did not sell but had bids can be useful as well. That is somewhat of a way to determine what somebody is willing to pay even if the seller refused the "offer".

 

[jack the toad]

A guide to using Gunbroker to determine value

that's interesting. thanks for posting.

 

[jtcarm]

there are others willing to pay there asking price

That's the problem I have shopping locally. I see all sorts of posts from members saying they got a fantastic deal. All I can say is, not in my neck of the woods.

The few decent used Smiths I find are outrageously priced. I've made offers on some, got refused, return 2 days later and it's gone.

Somebody's paying those high prices, or they're just much better negotiators than me.

I just don't have time to look for that Stradivarius in the junk yard, so I have to go online.

 

[k22fan]

[...] The few decent used Smiths I find are outrageously priced. I've made offers on some, got refused, return 2 days later and it's gone.

Somebody's paying those high prices, or they're just much better negotiators than me. [...]

Not necessarily. Certain LGS owners are becoming infamous for selling all their good S&W revolvers online rather than across the counter. A few store them in their gun store display with outrageous price tags while their online auction runs its course.

 

[jtcarm]

Not necessarily. Certain LGS owners are becoming infamous for selling all their good S&W revolvers online rather than across the counter. A few store them in their gun store display with outrageous price tags while their online auction runs its course.

Hmm, makes sense.

I do know an LGS that does that, but their auction prices are equally outrageous. Yet their inventory turns over somehow.

 

[mbliss57]

Thanks for posting. I always use this method for guns that are common sellers. It breaks down when you have a gun that is rare, seldom seen for sale anywhere. But it breaks down on all levels not just GB. Like Old Bear says..sometimes you just have to decide if you are willing to pay what the asking price is and be happy with what you bought. I like to get a "good" deal as much as anyone. But my main focus is getting the gun I want. I always try to get the best deal I can...we all do.
GB searches are very powerful and helpful. But they are not always gong to be get you the info you need. Thanks for the lesson. I know this will help many. It can also be used in reverse when trying to sell/trade a gun at an LGS. They will often quote GB prices when selling a used gun. Well it works both ways. Even though they need to buy at wholesale...the Blue Book they pull out is often worthless..low ball compared to GD prices. . Ask them for a % of the average GB price instead. You will often get a higher price if they will entertain the proposal.

 

[Inspector-Callahan]

Great post. Funny though that you see many inexperienced sellers going on GB and not giving any consideration to actual bids and just looking at completed auction prices and thereby setting the price of their gun ridiculously high.

The other thing you see is sellers sometimes getting an inflated sense of value just because one particular gun sold once for some exorbitant price becuse two guys got into a bidding war that had more to do with a battle of cajones and not a matter of actual value. ALWAYS REMEMBER the practical value you can expect to get is what a REASONABLE or RATIONAL buyer would pay. If you set the price that is predicated upon finding that irrational buyer that has more money than brains, then you might be holding that gun for a while.... And some sellers set prices unrealistically high for that very reason. Meaning they really aren't motivated to sell, they are only listing something on the chance that someone with deep pockets and little patience will happen along.

Lastly, you have to consider the forum as well. Selling to a national audience via GB will most times generate a higher sell price than can be achieved at some local gun show (provided pictures are good enough) , so it's unrealistic in my opinion to expect an equivalent gun to generate equivalent dollars with vastly differing exposure.

IC

 

[bigl1911]

Good post - Gunbroker as a source for pricing does always work using logical and analytical methods. Fact is there is an assumption that an average for pricing sets the market or even the value of a specific type of gun. I will give a few examples where this doesn't work. A general offices issued 1903/1908 Colt generally ranges from 6k to 9k depending (trust me on this i buy often). A recent sale for a Wainwright issued gun sold just under 40k. You can't average value using this number as a basis for a mean. It throws the entire equation out of whack. He is another example current and in play. There is a registered magnum up for sale current at 19k no cert no provenance questionable matching box some neat pictures with some areas of additional added value I won't comment on for the moment. The basis for this price? Condition a 99% plus gun one of a kind. You can't average this level of condition considering the gun is clearly about 6k to 9k above reason. Then again the game is not over and it will go even higher before the auction hammers. Further, some seller are more reliable and command higher numbers where others are questionable. I have overspent on many items and paid so little on others it feels like stealing. Each gun stands on its own and has to be evaluated accordingly.

 

[Absalom]

I just don't have time to look for that Stradivarius in the junk yard, so I have to go online.

That's exactly it.

I tend to roll my eyes when I come across yet another thread in some forum ragging on Gunbroker. Usually it's all about the prices, which are usually higher than the posters think they should have to pay. What frequently follows is some rhapsody to their LGS where they used to have to pay next to nothing and still get change back, before the owner discovered GB.

But for me, Gunbroker's beauty is not about the money, but the selection. I guess if you live in some major metropolitan area with lots of gun shops and shows you have easy access to a big selection, but I don't. As an example, I'd been casually looking for a Victory model. In over a year, not a single one showed up on a table or in a LGS I visited around here. When I got serious about wanting to buy one a few weeks ago, there were about 50 different ones to look at on GB; most didn't meet my criteria, but using a simplified version of the OP's method I got a good idea on prices, and it didn't take too long for the perfect specimen to pop up, which met all my requirements (complete, all matching, low serial, very good cond.). And since it also was a guy I'd bought from before and knew I'd get exactly what he advertised, I didn't mind paying probably 60 to 80 bucks more than the prevailing rate for the gun. And the gun is everything I expected. Waiting to find that kind of gun around here would have likely taken longer than my remaining life expectancy.

Finding killer deals is all about access. Online auction sites have leveled the playing field for those of us who, for geographic reasons, simply wouldn't have it otherwise.