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03-22-2010, 08:55 PM
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"One Second After" a scary must read!
Just finished reading "One Second After" by William Forstchen. It tells the story of America following a nuclear blast in the atmosphere that generates a devastating "EMP" (Electromagnetic pulse), that destroys every piece of electronics in the country. No power, communications of any kind, the total loss of technology resulting in a complete break down of society. The story's focus is on a small town in North Carolina and its inhabitants as they struggle for survival.
It is grim reading to be sure but a must read for every American. I defy anyone to put the book down after more than a few pages. Very well written but keep the big box of Kleenex handy as the author will rip your heart out and feed it to you over and over again.
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03-22-2010, 09:03 PM
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I've heard about the massive EMP's. we all need to get a car with points/condenser ignition and a carburetor. I rember how to set points and tune a carb.
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03-22-2010, 11:01 PM
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In the Congressional report on EMP, around page 200 something if I recall, there's information regarding actual testing of EMP effects on vehicles. Up through the 2004 model year, 90 percent of the vehicles tested would still run. At worst, they'd need to be restarted or have other problems but still be operable. Thus I didn't get that far into reading "One Second After" since it bugged me. Yes, the grid can be shut down, but cars, generators, and other things won't necessarily be knocked out and certainly not everywhere. The 90 percent, fatality wise, figure for life without power in the United States last came up during Y2K hysteria and seems repeated in the book. The usual source given back then was an old 1960s Rand corporation study or report of some sort. Given that the survival rate was much, much higher in Sarajevo when the system was greatly disrupted (which was a cosmopolitan, urban society), that number seems high.
I peaked to the end of the book after skimming it. I found myself wondering who was servicing all those vehicles - Bradleys etc, where the ammo came from and how they'd have been transported from Central Asia if ports and such, as well as global shipping, were badly disrupted.
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03-22-2010, 11:04 PM
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What if the electricity suddenly went out? One nuclear warhead detonated high above North America would produce a shockwave powerful enough to knock out the entire electric grid and all electronic devices. Not just temporarily because the system was overloaded, but permanently because the circuits were fried.
Ever heard of Electromagnetic pulse, or EMP? Probably not, unless you’re a nuclear weapons expert.....
The Nightmare No One In America Sees Coming
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03-23-2010, 01:08 AM
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I don't think the exact scenario of TEOTWAWKI is as important as understanding what might happen as a society deteriorates. From this book I realized how important medical issues are. Any run on prescriptions will cause many people to go without whether we have electricity or not. We have stocked up on sovereign silver, etc., and prescription meds out of our own pockets (beyond what our ins pays for). Also the proliferation of gangs in this book is a heads-up to those who prepare for the worst. Have a plan B that includes others for the strength in numbers.
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03-23-2010, 12:41 PM
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I'm currently reading "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand. If you really want the **** scared out of you, pick up a copy of it.
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03-23-2010, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onomea
What if the electricity suddenly went out? One nuclear warhead detonated high above North America would produce a shockwave powerful enough to knock out the entire electric grid and all electronic devices. Not just temporarily because the system was overloaded, but permanently because the circuits were fried.
Ever heard of Electromagnetic pulse, or EMP? Probably not, unless you’re a nuclear weapons expert.....
The Nightmare No One In America Sees Coming
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I dabble in electronics.
complex integrated circuits will snuff it, kiss your computer goodbye.
discrete transistors vary in susceptibility some of this equipment will survive.
good old vac tubes like those found in legendary amps like the Marshall JCM 800, and the vintage fenders will prove that you cant stop rock and roll.
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03-23-2010, 01:23 PM
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Lucifer's Hammer by Larry Niven
Is the most well thought out end of the world novel I've ever read. A comet hits the earth just after calving over the Pacific Ocean. Things are pretty well wrecked from there. Many good survival issues are discussed.
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03-23-2010, 01:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gregintenn
I'm currently reading "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand. If you really want the **** scared out of you, pick up a copy of it.
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I'm re-reading 1984. Scarier.
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03-23-2010, 03:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarbC
I'm re-reading 1984. Scarier.
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I think we are beginning to live "1984..."
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03-23-2010, 03:29 PM
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My 2 cents worth. Read (or better yet watch the movies)" Fail Safe" and the original "On the Beach". Apparently people were really scared of nukes in the 60's. I don't know cause I was born in '65.
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03-23-2010, 03:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmar
I think we are beginning to live "1984..."
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We're well into it.
oldogy
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03-23-2010, 06:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorFarmer
I peaked to the end of the book after skimming it. I found myself wondering who was servicing all those vehicles - Bradleys etc, where the ammo came from and how they'd have been transported from Central Asia if ports and such, as well as global shipping, were badly disrupted.
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I'm thinking maybe you might should have considered actually reading the book. Pretty much everything you wondered about was covered.
Another good book with a similar premis was Alas Babylon, written in the late '50's. Still in print and a very good read.
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03-23-2010, 06:49 PM
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Whether you buy EMP as a viable threat as described in the book or not (I certainly do), the description of the societal breakdown seemed real enough to scare the pants off me. The issues of food, medicine, the elimination of essential governmental services that we so take for granted are detailed in frightening detail. It made me stop and painfully reevaluate how prepared I am to deal with any major disaster that could cause such a breakdown. While you cannot prepare for every eventuality I am going to take some serious proactive steps to be better prepared.
I will stockpile more food, medicine, cash in small denominations and of course ammo. I'll be adding a few tools, a generator and better communications equipment to increase my independence. I say again, a very good read, definitely worth your time as it will give you a lot to think about.
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03-23-2010, 07:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldogy
We're well into it.
oldogy
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I think Brave New World by Huxley is much closer to the current reality than 1984, although both are scary.
http://www.recombinantrecords.net/im...s-to-Death.png
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03-23-2010, 07:28 PM
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The TV series Jericho is about this type of subject...you can still find it online..
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03-23-2010, 08:46 PM
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EMP is a serious issue that the US military has consistantly ignored. Russian military field radios still have tubes. This is NOT because the Russians are incapable of produceing solid state commo equip.
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03-23-2010, 09:21 PM
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My Science Fiction club had a fellow with a background in the power industry speak to us on this subject. Were such an even to happen...
Welcome to say 1900 because that's about where we'd be.
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03-23-2010, 10:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Faulkner
I'm thinking maybe you might should have considered actually reading the book. Pretty much everything you wondered about was covered.
Another good book with a similar premis was Alas Babylon, written in the late '50's. Still in print and a very good read.
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I bought a copy tonight after being assured that I could swap it for store credit if I wanted to.
If I remember right, the same author did the pretty good "Lost Regiment" series years ago.
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03-23-2010, 10:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therevjay
EMP is a serious issue that the US military has consistantly ignored. Russian military field radios still have tubes. This is NOT because the Russians are incapable of produceing solid state commo equip.
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Not entirely ignored. "An EMP cannot be produced efficiently in ionised (electrically conducting) air, as that literally shorts out the EMP very quickly" was the most succinct quote that I could find on the subject from a site devoted to such. There's a project called HAARP that conspiracy theorists love to speculate on, but which really does do some things (admitted to in open sources) that would lead someone to believe that part of what it does (whatever else it does) is to offer a shield against the effects of deliberately high altitude detonations intended to cause damage via EMP.
The Russian had well know KISS fixes that were widely dissemenated and thus spoken of. American efforts at amelioration are less well known.
Anyway, an online story called "Lights Out" by, I think his handle was "half fast" or something, beat "One Second After" to the plotline by five years or so and is freely found online.
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03-23-2010, 11:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorFarmer
I bought a copy tonight after being assured that I could swap it for store credit if I wanted to.
If I remember right, the same author did the pretty good "Lost Regiment" series years ago.
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Yep - same author & great series!
Also co-wrote, with Newt Gingrich, an alternate history series "Pearl Harbor". Also good stuff.
Bruce
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03-24-2010, 01:13 PM
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A lot of the stuff in the book shows a lack
of understanding about how much area/effort it takes to produce enough food for a person. Also, I found it much to generous in it's handling of the local tin pot dictators. As was posted earlier, Lucifer's Hammer semed a more realistic aftermath.
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03-24-2010, 03:18 PM
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Alright, I stayed up and read all of the book last night. It was somewhat compelling as a read, but very problematic in terms of the author's world view, understanding of model battles, and his lack of understanding and perhaps naive view of the military and military logistics.
I liked the Lost Regiment series quite a bit, though admittedly I was younger when I read it. The current "Destroyermen" series by Taylor Anderson is even better and Anderson is a gun nut.
Forstchen obviously has spent his time only with historical accounts of the military and perhaps teaching staff officers. This isn't without value, but he lacks an understanding of a good many things or else was mislead in his research.
While there is, or rather was, prepositioned military equipment overseas, a lot of it was expended already in the war on terror. If you want horror story matierial, delve into some of what our National Guard actually has on had to work with in the way of substitute standard back home and the three days of supplies, at best, that hospitals now have I suppose.
Anyway, "the entire Navy" as described in the book would be unlikely to come to the rescue. Carriers sitting in port, as a number are at any given time, only have a little bit on board in terms of food, bombs, etc. Unless one is just about to leave on a cruise, it isn't packed to the gills with supplies. It would also be arguable how much of the crew - much of which is ashore at any given time - would be willing/able to report. Esp if comms were out (you get a cell phone call via a phone tree to report), families weren't secured, etc.
While there are working tanks, Bradleys, etc afield in Iraq now, supporting them requires a lot of work. Basically, modern military gear, esp planes, relies on parts and maintenance that involve a lot of people, not only in uniforms, but contractors. Parts are made all over the world. Want to keep a plane running? Build some more bombs? Parts come from China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea... A member of the Japanese parliament pointed this out in Gulf War One - that American smart bombs wouldn't be working, let alone smart, without Japanese electronic components.
Anyway, moving even light infantry from point A to point B in brigade strength requires a major outlay on the part of the USAF in terms of capacity. Moving heavy forces, like armor, is even more complex. Abrams and the like don't get very far when their supply chain gets messy. They throw tracks, need engine overhauls, etc. Lacking a manufacturing base that is functional, they rather quickly become expensive pillboxes.
It would be even more unlikely for any American forces to return from Afghanistan, where supplies are tenuous and rely on large airlift abilities and the goodwill of Pakistan and Russia.
It's further naive to expect a functional chain of command and that units - which by the end of the book described as wearing piece work crazy quilt uniforms of various gear - would hold together under orders and become a stabilizing force instead of something more akin to "better give up some corn if you're within artillery range".
The town's leadership is a fascist enterprise since no one elected them, save the mayor, and she's essentially driven from power. A staff officer colonel that no one elects makes the decision to let a good bit of the population starve to get keep his troops (such as they are) fed. He mouths platitudes about America, yet they leave people to die outside the town - and make no effort to so much as organize refugee sanitation outside the town in addition to refusing more refugees. Yet the raiders are supposed to be worse, I suppose, for not making a pretense about what they're doing to survive...
Anyway... There's still a lack of understanding in the book about what it takes to actually get an EMP device of the type described into action. Essentially, it requires quite a bit of yield (a powerful, expensive, hard to make weapon) and an orbital launch capability. Despite the "this could happen" atmosphere - and it could - of hysteria that went with the book's publication, only a handful of nations have the ability to do this at the current time. The obvious culprit of such, China, is so heavily invested and dependent on the US as a market for their goods (if we were destroyed and couldn't buy Chinese ****, their own economy would collapse) as to make war unlikely.
The U.S. military itself either fields, or is soon fielding, a variety of EMP weapons of their own - mostly non nukes. An early one shut the lights out in Iraq as part of the shock and awe stage of thing some years ago, and this even showed up in early press report mentions (CBS, etc). This would lead many observers relying on open sources to think that at least some gear is shielded/tested. The PRC-77 for example apparently has seen this process take place, and the PRC-25 apparently mostly worked as well.
When Congress did testing, they found that things like semis, most vehicles (90 percent ish),trains etc still worked, though there would be problems with the power grid,switches of railroads, etc.
Shortwave radio would also still work, and there are quite a few sets operational in the U.S. and sitting in drawers, ammo cans, etc that would pick up international news feeds. Satellites on the other hand would be affected by an atmospheric detonation, so GPS and the like, necessary for our current global shipping needs would be a problem.
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03-24-2010, 11:03 PM
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I - and many other ham radio operators - have vacuum tube equipment standing by *just in case*. I actually prefer the sound of the old tube rigs, but only in the winter. You can heat a room with some of this stuff.
I have 2 different sets (1 transmitter + 1 receiver = 1 set) so that one is always *completely off line*.... Right now both are off line, btw.
Some think that I over do it, but I also have ample ammunition for each gun that I own *just in case*. Not to mention a years worth of canned food and grains.
Be prepared ! Or, as my old mom always says, Expect the Unexpected.
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03-24-2010, 11:26 PM
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Dont think it can happen to America? Look at "Mother Russia" , Argentinian; Both were well industrialized, prosperous "Nations" before they collapsed, hell Russia was in the running with US for the "Top Dawg" spot before the SHTF. Its simply unrealistic to think that the same if not worse fate is somehow beneath us as a nation. "Fate favors the prepared"
J
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03-25-2010, 01:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike from st pete
Lucifer's Hammer by Larry Niven
Is the most well thought out end of the world novel I've ever read. A comet hits the earth just after calving over the Pacific Ocean. Things are pretty well wrecked from there. Many good survival issues are discussed.
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Great book, I'll second the recommendation. I even got my wife to read it and she loved it as well.
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