More of a perversion of his quote than a paraphrase.

Actual quote on November 10, 1942, Winston Churchill said this: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

__________________
Live long and prosper

Interesting…..


Iran’s attack seemed planned to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle | CNN



“The strike served as a retaliation against the Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s consulate in Damascus earlier in April that killed a top commander, and it was in keeping with US intelligence and analysts’ expectations. Iran’s leadership felt compelled to strike Israel in order to reiterate its position as a regional powerhouse and to dispel notions of it as a paper tiger. It doubled down on its show of force by launching the operation from its own territory and not by proxy in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen or Iraq.

Yet Iran also needed to try to avoid sparking an all-out war. Its economy has buckled under the weight of Trump-era sanctions, and there is growing discontent on its streets over the government’s repressive policies. On Sunday, Iran appeared not only to have factored in Israel’s robust air defense systems, but to have relied on it. The relatively high degree of US intelligence about the operation also suggests Iran may have engaged in back-channelling with Western leaders. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said he gave neighboring countries, including major US allies, 72-hour notice. To contain the fall-out of their own operation, they appeared intent to foil it.

The style of attack is reminiscent of Tehran’s response to former President Donald Trump’s targeted killing of Iran’s most storied general, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020. Tehran gave US troops 10 hours of advance warning before raining down massive ballistic missiles on US military positions in Iraq, including al-Asad airbase. The attack wreaked havoc, leaving gaping craters in the ground, but caused no known US casualties. In the process, Iranian forces accidentally shot down a commercial jet taking off from Tehran airport, killing over 100 passengers and fuelling public anger against a regime increasingly seen as incompetent”

__________________
Sure you did

There are some caveats to their failure.

#1 Israel had help, and quite right, too.

#2 Israeli is a tiny place, only 92% the size of New Jersey, and almost exactly the same size as Clark County, Nevada, that contains Las Vegas. I suspect it has the highest density of surface-to-air assets anywhere in the world, probably more than the so-called "Moscow Ring".

#3 Defending a small space is much easier than defending a large space from air assault. Ask Ukraine, or the guy that was in charge of the Soviet PVO when Mathias Rust flew to Moscow.

That only seven out of an estimated 350 made it to Israeli territory is an extraordinary achievement, representing a 98% success rate. I guess the MIC of several countries is now about to make out rather well replacing the expendables used in this triumph. Well, I know how much store many of you here put on jobs, so you must be doubly happy.

__________________
Release the Kraken

Perverse times we live in, my man.

__________________
USS Brewton FF1086
SWCA#3597

Ain't that a fact.

__________________
Release the Kraken

Israel is asked to exercise restraint after 60 tons of munitions are aimed and sent towards its territory.

Just imagine how much restraint the United States would exercise if Mexico or China aimed toxic chemicals at the United States that actually killed over 100,000 Americans last year.

__________________
Buy American
Vote Responsibly

Drugs. Nothing happened. Nuff said.

Notions that Iran is near collapse from within are truly dangerous wishful thinking.

"Me against my brother; my brother and I against my cousins; me, my brother, and my cousins against the outsider."

More saber rattling similar to Kim Jung Un. They are doing everything in their power to bait the US into conflict that stirs unrest and destabilizes the social order of the US while their propaganda mills preach about how they are standing up to the evil westerners.

People will wake up when the cells within the US are activated. I will be interested to see how they feel about things then.

I hope it doesn't happen, but sincerely believe it is not if but when and how bold.

Seems like this would be a perfect opportunity for Israel to take out all known nuclear sites in Iran.

Don't forget to tip your hats to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who've got the most warfighting experience in the world at air defense - they've freely shared the hard-learned techniques with NATO and the US; you see now how it paid off. Also know Ukraine asked for Israeli Iron Dome technology and were turned down flat.

IMHO they should never have agreed to the Budapest Memorandum. If they hadn't de-armed, I bet Russia would have thought long and hard before attacking the number 3 nuclear arsenal holder in the world.

I can only wonder if this was part of Israel's thought process about not sharing strategic details with them.

The Israelis have announced that they will retaliate at a time and place of their choosing. Our leader has stated there will be no assistance provided by the US if they do.

Better the U.S. does not commit but with ability to
change policy than to commit and then betray
that commitment even if warranted. "Our leader"
has excellent diplomatic and military advisors.

__________________
Ubi Est Mea

Pretty impressive defenses including US assets from the Gulf, Iraq and Saudi.

Historically, the Iranians have been a cut above the typical nomad Arabs. They are Persians, and as such are more technologically inclined, better educated, and organized than your garden variety Arabs. Unlike most Muslim countries, they generally haven’t let Islam bring scientific development to a halt.
This makes them potentially a more dangerous foe, especially because oil revenues, and billions of dollars the US gives them periodically to buy and build a large inventory of sophisticated weaponry.

How the world responded to Kuwait's needs...History and Society, Persian Gulf War, Britannica

Over the following months the U.S. military carried out its largest overseas deployment since World War II. By mid-November the U.S. had more than 240,000 troops in the Gulf and another 200,000 on the way, and the United Kingdom had sent more than 25,000, Egypt 20,000, and France 5,500. Some 25 other countries, including Canada, Syria, Bangladesh, and Morocco, had committed troops and weapons to the military buildup that was designated Operation Desert Shield. On November 29, 1990, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 678 by a vote of 12 to 2, sanctioning the use of force if the Iraqis had not left Kuwait by January 15, 1991. Only Cuba and Yemen voted against the resolution, with China abstaining. This was the first UN authorization of the use of force since 1950, when the Security Council approved military action against North Korea after its unprovoked attack on South Korea. With this resolution in place, the U.S. offered to engage in a dialogue with Saddam to extend the possibility of a peaceful settlement based on a timely Iraqi withdrawal. unquote

Think there were more that contributed. Hussein had his eyes on Saudi Arabia, who helped as much as anyone else.

Apparently Iran transmitted the flight paths of the incoming munitions before the launch. Everything except the ones launched by Hezbollah. That made it a little more easy to intercept them. It looks like this was a face saving move by Iran more than anything else.

Source please.

__________________
Release the Kraken

Beat me to it

__________________
Buy American
Vote Responsibly

Iran Attacks Israel, Sort Of... || Peter Zeihan - YouTube

Take this for what it’s worth. I like this guy. He’s not always on point but he has some great alternate views that make sense.

^^^ Although the above is well presented, along with a large dollop of cynicism, I heard nothing to substantiate a source for his assertion that the flight plans were delivered by the Iranians pre-launch.

__________________
Buy American
Vote Responsibly

Indeed, a US official has specifically denied that targets were named, although quite why we should be told is beyond me at this late hour. reuters.com That the Iranians gave advanced notice of an attack is not in dispute, and the probably did so for their own reasons. What they are I don't care, I just appreciate that Israel and its supporters had the chance to prepare for the attack.

A comment on "flight plans". As I pointed out in another post, Israel is a small place, smaller than New Jersey and even a good number of counties in the Western US. It's easy for me to get a grip on the size of Israel as it is almost exactly the same size as Clark County, NV, where I live. Additionally, a quick look at a map reveals there are only so many lines of bearing from which missiles and drones launched by Iran and its proxies can follow. This eases the interception problem greatly.

With its small size and nearby enemies, Israel has some of the most closely surveilled airspace anywhere in the world. I bet when they turn on all their radars there's enough RF in the sky to cook a frozen chicken in about ten minutes. They are going to see everything coming in any kind of ballistic trajectory, with cruise missiles and drones picked up using Phalcon airborne radars. EL/W-2085 - Wikipedia As for precise timing on the attack, I would wager that the US infra-red satellites detected the booster rockets that the Iranians use to get things airborne and the information was passed to the Israelis and the other participating allied nations.

__________________
Release the Kraken

I'm sure he's not in a position to give exact sources but the interaction with the Swiss is documented in several other outlets that didn't go into the same detail as he did. I tend to doubt that he's just making it up. In the context of his presentation it wouldn't surprise me if it's true. As I said, I'm not a disciple of this guy and his predictions don't always pan out (What pundits predictions do?) but he has some interesting views. I particularly like his discussions about how demographics are driving a lot of things now. Believe it or don't believe it. It is what it is.

I wonder if Tehran can hold their salt when the ball is in the other court.

Looking at countries like Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon broadcasts Tehran's goal is to destroy Israel and take over the Middle East with their edited Shi'ism. Why does not the UN stop them? Yemen and Hezbollah have been great entertainment for the world to keep their eyes off Russia. Both Iran's workings.

IIRC, the Iranian air force is still flying F 4 Phantoms.

__________________
No baby we aint

Still a capable aircraft in the right hands...but maintenance is suspect. Against the IAF with more modern aircraft flown by among the most capable, motivated and trained pilots in the world...the Iranian Air Force will have an exciting but short life.

Sort of a remake of the great Marianas turkey shoot!

__________________
14 S&W Revs none with locks!

Do you all remember when Saddam bragged that he had the 7th largest military in the world. How did that work out? These third world clowns don’t realize what will happen when the US military is let off it’s leash.

With the F35's stealth and the right tactics, I suspect most Iranian F-4 crews wouldn't realize they were dying until after their plane blew up.

__________________
Release the Kraken

Not only is maintenance questionable, but don't forget that the avionics haven't been updated since 1979.

__________________
You're shy a few manners.

Not with anything willingly supplied by the US, anyway. However, I wouldn't underestimate the Iranian's ability to source stuff from other places and adapt it.

__________________
Release the Kraken

It's a good thing Israel and their allies have the holy hand grenade of antioch and know how to use it.

This conflict has been going on for centuries.

__________________
"I also cook."

The DoD hasn't seen fit to confer with me since June of '75 so I am pretty much in the dark Intel wise.

As LCDR "Tom" Dodge said: "Hey! I'm just guessin' here".

__________________
Music/Sports/Beer fan

Well there was an 8 year period there where they might have gotten an upgrade.

All the frozen funds released to Iran could buy a lot of smuggled technology.

Not sure the 34 or 35 F4s Iran has that are still airworthy are a gamechanger.

Nobody should sell Iran short. They can be a real pain when the time comes. Money can buy anything china or russia has to offer, and that includes a nuke or two. If it means the destruction of the US or Israel, the sales to a terrorist country is a bargain for them. That's why I believe that Israel will give them no quarter when the sparks begin to fly.

And F-14 Tomcats from the pre-revolution days, but it is not known whether any are still operational.

Fighter planes are high performance machines. Things tend to break. Lots of spares are required to keep them operational in peace time, let alone when they go into combat for real. Naturally, these parts are not something you would go pick up at the local hardware store or order from Amazon.

I'm not sure McDonnell Douglas (now Boeing) still supports these aircraft, nor if they do, would they be inclined to for a country like Iran. More and more of Iran's F-4s are no doubt being cannibalized to keep a shrinking number airworthy.

No doubt the Russians or perhaps the Chinese could modify current technology to function in these elderly machines, but that would require a team of engineers to get the hardware and software created, installed and extensively tested. Very expensive to do something like that.

There's a big difference between getting something just barely flying and having it perform in aerial combat. Israel would sweep them from the sky or blow them apart on the ground. They would have to run away to Afghanistan and hope they could land somewhere more or less friendly, much like Iraqi jets did in Desert Storm.

Personally, I'm surprized the Russians/Chinese haven't supplied them with MiGs.

__________________
You're shy a few manners.

Iran has a few ChiCom J7s and MiG29s. Neither are modern.

Iran is the only country other than ours that used F-14 Tomcats. Outside of a few gate guards and museum examples all US F-14s were destroyed to keep parts being smuggled to the Iranians. Who knows how many Iranian Tomcats are airworthy much less capable of any serious combat?

Were those MiG-29s "donated" by Iraq in the early 90s, perchance?

__________________
Release the Kraken

Many were.