4 MILLION rounds of .22LR per day...

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Not hard to believe at all if you do the math. 4,000,000 / 100 round boxes = 40,000 boxes. Divide that by the 50 states and each state is getting 800 boxes or 80,000 rounds. Not nearly enough for the buying frenzy going on now.
 
Not hard to believe at all if you do the math. 4,000,000 / 100 round boxes = 40,000 boxes. Divide that by the 50 states and each state is getting 800 boxes or 80,000 rounds. Not nearly enough for the buying frenzy going on now.

I like the point you are making, but 4 mil per day would suggest maybe a little more availability. But as I have stated in another forum post, all ammo manufacturers slowed down the production at the end of the year to limit what was in stock at the wharehouse so the tax man couldn't get them for more. That coupled with the election and the tragedy in Newtown, people panicked and bought everything they could find wondering if they would ever see it again which is why there is still limited availability. It will all be OK again soon :).
 
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I had been buying ammo every time I saw it on sale (this was all before the craziness started) and I took inventory today just to see what I had and to my amazement I counted in excess of 6,000 rds.:eek: ...... So until this craziness subsides I'll be concentrating my efforts on finding .223/5.56 ammo;)
 
I like the point you are making, but 4 mil per day would suggest maybe a little more availability. But as I have stated in another forum post, all ammo manufacturers slowed down the production at the end of the year to limit what was in stock at the wharehouse so the tax man couldn't get them for more. That coupled with the election and the tragedy in Newtown, people panicked and bought everything they could find wondering if they would ever see it again which is why there is still limited availability. It will all be OK again soon :).


All ammo manufacturers slowed down?

So the people at the Federal plant near me really aren't at the plant getting paid overtime to make ammo?

Do you suppose they've been playing cards at time and a half?

(Are you sure they're are all on a calendar year tax cycle? You only pay taxes on inventory sitting on your shelves. Why, when store shelves are empty would a manufacturer keep stuff on their shelves which stifles the cash flow to needed pay the taxes? I'm really trying to understand the business sense in a decision like that.)

The ammo plant near me (one of the largest) is "making hay" while they can. Which ammo plants by you are idling?
 
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I will just toss this out there.. They make the least amount of profit on 22 then they do on any other round.

So no matter what they product they make its going to sell like hot cakes.. So why would it be 22.
 
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All ammo manufacturers slowed down?

So the people at the Federal plant near me really aren't at the plant getting paid overtime to make ammo?

Do you suppose they've been playing cards at time and a half?

(Are you sure they're are all on a calendar year tax cycle? You only pay taxes on inventory sitting on your shelves. Why, when store shelves are empty would a manufacturer keep stuff on their shelves which stifles the cash flow to needed pay the taxes? I'm really trying to understand the business sense in a decision like that.)

The ammo plant near me (one of the largest) is "making hay" while they can. Which ammo plants by you are idling?

Most manufacturing facilities go through this every year. I did not once say anything negative about any workers or companies. I do not appreciate words being put in my mouth.

Just as a reference check out this link. Inventory Carrying Costs and this one http://www.googobits.com/articles/2400-how-to-account-for-inventory-for-income-tax-purposes.html. They are generic links, but they explain it enough for one to infer.


The manufacturer's don't make money from the retailers- so having the store shelves empty doesn't effect them. They make it and store it and distribute it when they please.

They federal manufacturing plants are working OT because demand is crazy high right now, as in 2013. Not 2012 when the tax man was going to charge them. I don't know this companies specific fiscal years, the manufacturing facility I worked for dropped all warehouse inventory to minimum in October and we worked OT from December until the following March or April to build stores back up for the summer and following winter. It depends on the state that the facility is in on whether there is an inventory tax or not.

I don't know why you took exception to what I said but there is the explanation.
 
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I like the point you are making, but 4 mil per day would suggest maybe a little more availability. But as I have stated in another forum post, all ammo manufacturers slowed down the production at the end of the year to limit what was in stock at the wharehouse so the tax man couldn't get them for more. That coupled with the election and the tragedy in Newtown, people panicked and bought everything they could find wondering if they would ever see it again which is why there is still limited availability. It will all be OK again soon :).

The bold, italic statement is where you and I disagree. Those are your words, not mine. I didn't put those words in your mouth.

The stuff I said about the workers is because I know they are working OT making ammo. If the manufacturers slow down and the workers are still there on OT, then what else could they doing? You can't spend much time counting the ammo on bare shelves. That's why I said, tongue in cheek, that they must be playing cards. I never attributed those words to you.

Your statement that "Most manufacturing facilities go through this every year" may indeed be true when no shortages exist or when companies choose to keep inventory in stock so their end users don't see shortages.

THAT ISN'T THE SITUATION RIGHT NOW in firearms related industries.

Your statement "The manufacturer's don't make money from the retailers - so having the store shelves empty doesn't effect them. They make it and store it and distribute it when they please" is only partially true.. Somebody is buying the product so the manufacturers can make money.

Yup, most manufacturers don't sell directly to retailers, they typically go thru independent distributors (except the really big retailers like Cabelas, Walmart, BP, etc.) But, if the small retailers are buying from the distributors.... then why are their shelves bare?

"Make it and store it when they please" I have no clue what that means. The whole purpose of manufacturing something is to sell it as quickly as possible; storing inventory for any period of time costs money. Inventory should be turned often. That makes the shareholders/owners happiest.

Thanks for the google info on inventory carrying costs. I never learned that stuff in my graduate level accounting classes or from the CPA firm that I paid tens of thousands of dollars to do my company's tax returns.. I'll be sure to pass on the info.

Evidently you were still able to buy ammo in 2012. I checked my records, the last easy to find bulk packs that I bought were back in Novermber 2012. By December it was very hard to find. I guess that "slowdown" really worked, there was no inventory to tax. (Again, that was "tongue in cheek". There was no slowdown.)

The people I knew at Federal have been working mandatory OT for several years, not just a couple of months in 2013. There was no "save money on taxes" slowdown in 2012. Maybe Federal (and their other companies: CCI, Speer, etc) were the only ammo manufacturers who got behind.

You wrote: "the manufacturing facility I worked for dropped all warehouse inventory to minimum in October and we worked OT from December until the following March or April to build stores back up for the summer and following winter. It depends on the state that the facility is in on whether there is an inventory tax or not."

I don't understand why a company would drop inventory to a minimum in Oct of one year only to work OT a few months later to build it back up for the following summer and winter (doesn't the following Oct come between summer and winter?)

That statement may have been perfectly fine for what ever product and buy cycle that worked for your company's customers during normal supply and demand cycles.

Right now (and for the last 4+ years) things have not been a normal supply demand cycle in the ammo/firearm industry.

Applying what you saw in the industry where you worked AND trying to apply it to another industry by making the statement that "all ammo manufacturers slowed down the production at the end of the year to limit what was in stock at the wharehouse so the tax man couldn't get them for more" is wrong based on what I've seen and know. That is where I took exception and your explanation doesn't apply accurately.
 
My understanding is that the mfgs run specific ammo at various times of the year i.e. maybe they make a years worth of 22lr in Jan and then move to the next caliber for the retail market. Maybe not with 22lr but other centerfire?

Seems to me that demand was up supply was down for whatever reason and they are probably all running 24/7 right now.

Taxes, Holidays, Vacations, vast poker games, who knows just ready to see "normal supply/pricing" again!
 
Not hard to believe at all if you do the math. 4,000,000 / 100 round boxes = 40,000 boxes. Divide that by the 50 states and each state is getting 800 boxes or 80,000 rounds. Not nearly enough for the buying frenzy going on now.

Then like my state,there are 99 counties. Not all the counties have Walmarts (western part),but some have 3-4 or more,depending on population of a City/county. I know in this part of the State in the less populated areas there is 1 Walmart per County. So with the larger Cities/counties having more Walmarts we "could" say 1 Walmart per county. So if my state is getting 800 boxes,
that's 8.08 boxes per Walmart. And that doesn't include ANY LGS. YIKES !!! Not hard to figure that one out and why we can't find ammo and Walmart has a 3 box limit (and they DON'T stock bricks). Walmart is a catch as catch can for ammo right now. It sucks when you can only buy 3-50 or 3-100 round boxes,but I do understand their thinking (which isn't too hard to get around). I had already beaten the system (like many others) and bought tons of ammo WAY before all this hit. I could take 10 boxes at a crack of Fed 550's,all the CCI LR and the next day they were back fresh on the shelf. I also use to wipe out their 5.56 and they never blinked an eye. It was fun when we could shoot all day and quit when we ran out of ammo,stop at the LGS or WalleyWorld on the way home and replaced what we had shot,bought more for the stock pile and have change back.

ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
 
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^^^ Yep, you throw in international distribution and even online retailers and you can see how strained the supply chain is.
 
They balance their normal production capability on a history of what they normally sell and they take into consideration things like hunting seasons. That's because before the major types of hunting season hunters buy more ammo then they do half way through the year before the next hunting season. They have no desire to produce ammo that will sit in their warehouse for several months before being ordered.

So in a panic surge in buying of several popular ammo types like 9mm, 40 S&W, 45 ACP, 223, 7.62x39 and 308 they strip the inventory and create huge backorders that cause them to have to re-schedule their production where they can try to balance it to match demand.

I ran a manufacturing operation for 21 years and our production never was as wild as what the producers of ammo, high capacity magazines, and black rifles are going through but the reality is they are trying to hustle to meet the changes in demand.
 
Actually the ammo makers are still making it at the same rate as before. They have all said they are not going to add shifts for what they consider just a flunctiation in the market right now. so with higher demand the supply is low. Heck WM sold 2 years worth of ammo out of their wharehouse in about 1 month. that is why they are rationing to every store so that at least some ammo is available regularly. Which of course means the early bird gets the worm and even with a national limit of 3 boxes it disappears fast. I have around 4k rounds of .22, 2.2K of .223, 1.4k of 9mm, 700 rounds of 357 Sig and I reload the rest of what I need. But then I shoot competitively so unless I get more by late 2013 I will have most of that gone.
 
Actually the ammo makers are still making it at the same rate as before. They have all said they are not going to add shifts for what they consider just a flunctiation in the market right now. so with higher demand the supply is low. Heck WM sold 2 years worth of ammo out of their wharehouse in about 1 month. that is why they are rationing to every store so that at least some ammo is available regularly. Which of course means the early bird gets the worm and even with a national limit of 3 boxes it disappears fast. I have around 4k rounds of .22, 2.2K of .223, 1.4k of 9mm, 700 rounds of 357 Sig and I reload the rest of what I need. But then I shoot competitively so unless I get more by late 2013 I will have most of that gone.

I would agree that they are making it at the same rate as before.

In Federal's case, the machines are pretty much designed and built to manufacture a specific round. It's not just a matter of changing dies. The rounds are moving at some pretty high speeds and to switch to a different round, spend time adjusting the conveyance ramps, etc. would shut down production capability for too long.

They've been running most of those machines 24/7 for a few years now. There are no more shifts that can be added.

It would be crazy for them to buy new machines at this point cuz of the uncertainty of potential new regulations.

The shortages are purely a supply and demand situation now.

If there are 300 Million firearms in the 50-80 Million US gun owners' homes and each home changes their buying habits even a little, everything breaks down....

If 5 Billion rounds were made this year (and that is typically more than what is made) that amounts to 17 rounds for each of the 300 Million firearms.....

My meagher stash will be gone at the end of the year, too, if things don't change. I believe that people will all build their inventory this year based on the shortages we have been seeing. What good is a firearm without ammo?

I have been seeing small amounts centerfire ammo in store shelves at a much higher price. .22LR is nowhere to be found in my area.

I may have to get a posse together and hijack a Federal semi as it leaves the plant...... :rolleyes:

With my luck, it would be full of .22 shorts. :eek:
 
Ammo shortage

My wife used to get so mad at me when I would buy a few hundred rounds a week. Right now I have a full safe of just ammo along with 3 ammo boxes full of loose ammo. Now she says I am a genius for having ammo whenever we go shooting! I will continue to buy a few hundred rounds every week. Who knows what will happen next.
 
My wife used to get so mad at me when I would buy a few hundred rounds a week. Right now I have a full safe of just ammo along with 3 ammo boxes full of loose ammo. Now she says I am a genius for having ammo whenever we go shooting! I will continue to buy a few hundred rounds every week. Who knows what will happen next.

Back in September I bought four cases of Federal at $170/case. And when this nonsense is over and my LGS gets in a million rounds in case lots again, I'll buy some more. I don't believe in buying a couple of hundred rounds at a time. That's why I'm shooting instead of whining and waiting for gunbot to ding. :)
 
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