Has 9 mm reached the new normal?

Prior to the craziness I was getting 9mm reman 124gr JHP for .20 and .45acp reman 230gr JHP for .25. I think the new normal will be $12.50 a box of 9mm range ammo and $15.00 a box for.45acp range ammo. Just my thoughts.
 
I’m in the reload camp as well, but only because I had stashed a good supply of SP primers. If I had to buy SPPs at the current crazy prices, I’d probably be buying current “bargains” as they appeared. Compared to what I used to pay, pre-crazy times, loading didn’t make much sense, but as my supply of $.15/round factory ammo dwindles it is mostly replaced with reloads.
It’s nice to have options! :D
Froggie
 
This term “the new normal” is quickly becoming another gun forum trope.

We have been through many of these market boofs before (admittedly this one is a three way and unprecedented) but “the new normal” immediately before the November 2020 vote was $8.99 to $9.99 a box for 9mm, and that’s AFTER every ridiculous market boof that has wrecked it for all of us.

And that was NOT a bulk price, that was per box.
Cool. So tell us what the price will be in 5 years.
 
I found CCI 115 gr brass practice ammo at $16.45/box of 50 plus $17.00 shipping on a 1000 round case.

Is this the new normal for the time being?
No, 9mm is slowly dropping. I've seen Blazer at under $300 a case with free shipping. I see Belom at 299, which should be the same as PPU. And some brand called Turan at 284 a case.

Recently I bought a case of Geco 124gr fmj... it was 299. I had to return some earlier on a recall, and got a 20% off coupon, so this case was $240.

9mm is dropping, but 223 and 7.62x39 has leveled off. Steel case is 35 cents a rd for either. I think THAT might be the new normal, since both of those calibers are in demand and have some drama around them
 
I don't believe we'll see $7 - 8 bucks a box for 50 rounds of Factory 9mm ammo ever again. I also believe that you are correct in that the "new normal" will cost about double those prices and that's when it's actually available. When availability gets sparse the price will increase. Remember, ammo is a FOR PROFIT business.
 
I found CCI 115 gr brass practice ammo at $16.45/box of 50 plus $17.00 shipping on a 1000 round case.

Is this the new normal for the time being?

I believe we are reaching a steady-state point for ammo prices.

As demand drops, the manufacturers are likely to be unwilling to pass on any savings they gain as the supply chain and transportation issues slowly resolve. If they let prices drop too far, it will be harder for them to make up the costs they incurred by increasing production during this last ammo drought.

Just my two cents worth...
 
I don't know about bulk buying online, but all of the LGSs in my area have shelves of 9mm for ~$19/box with no limit. Availability is very strong as manufacturers have clearly been pumping out .380/9mm/.45 and even .40 over everything else. Good luck finding other centerfire calibers; even .38 Special is tough and is almost always 130gr FMJ or pipsqueak pink-nose Hornady JHP. Apparently no one buys defensive revolver ammo anymore unless it's for a pocket gun.

I think 9mm will soften a bit more, but something will happen to drive it back up and create a "new normal" once again.
 
Picked up some Tula steel cased 115gr 9mm for $11.88/box on closeout recently. There was only 300 rounds or so but for that price, I was a buyer.
 
Hopefully a lot more people geared up to reload during China Virus, so demand for new ammo may be dented.
 
SuperVel is selling 5,000 rds of remanufactured 124 grain ammo for $1200. The are getting the once fired brass from their testing I am assuming. That figures out to $12 per box of 50. You can buy in smaller units also.

If you are younger and shooting a lot of 9, that is a good deal. It would also be a good deal for a few guys to go together on.
 
I hadn't bothered to reload 9mm for years because it was so cheap it just wasn't worth reloading. At least not for FMJ. The current 9mm price is so high it would have been worth it to reload. Unfortunately, the cost of primers has gone so high that it's just barely worth reloading.


What do you figure is the current cost to load a round of 9 mm FMJ? My friend just bought thousands of federal primers for $95 per thousand. CCI was the same price. That is my current benchmark.


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Browning 115FMJ 9mm brass case is 139/500 now... Saw on gun.deals. Cheapest I've seen in a bit
 
I'm at about $.18 per round for my last 1k rounds.



Next batch will be $.20-.23 per.


I struggle with estimating the cost. Should I use the pre-Covid cost that I paid for the components or should I use the current value of the components?


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