How long will you wait for $10/box 9mm?

[Dave Lively]

In the poll asking how much you will pay for a 50 round box of FMJ 9mm about 40% of people are saying $10 is their limit.

If you are part of that 40% how long are you willing to wait for that price?

Looking back at what I have paid at various times adjusting for inflation ammo prices in 2019 were the cheapest in the 40 years I have been buying ammo. I found a 1991 issue of the Shotgun News and looking at the prices a case of brass case FMJ 9mm was going for about $250 to nearly $400. Sure, the price in 1991 dollars was about half that but I make a lot more now than I did in 1991. It is real easy to forget inflation and just remember the price on the box. It is also easy to remember the absolute lowest price and think that is normal when it is not.

The low prices in 2019 were the result of ammo companies building new plants after the 2014 shortage only to have to sell cheaply when demand fell to pay for those plants, competition from overseas, cheap commodity prices and a strong dollar that made them even cheaper. It was a perfect storm for affordable ammo. Just the recent surge in inflation, particularly for metals like copper, has probably permanently increased the cost of ammo by at least 10%.

I still think its possible the price will get down to $220, maybe $210 a case but I am not holding my breath for $200.

ETA: The "$250 to nearly $400" prices I mentioned were after adjusting for 30 years of inflation. The price in 1991 dollars was about half that.

 

[Green Frog]

Remember, those “2022 dollars” have less buying power on everything including ammo. If ammo were cheaper overall, this would be an indicator of less inflation, and as inflation drifts up and the value of the dollar drifts down, it’s natural that ammo costs more today. I believe there’s a little room for ammo to come down, but “bargain basement ammo” will probably sell for $17-20 per box of 50 in the “new normal”.

Froggie

 

[Duckfood]

I still think its possible the price will get down to $220, maybe $210 a case but I am not holding my breath for $200.

I'm not sure where you are, but, locally, the price per box of factory 9MM FMJ cartridges runs between $16 and $18...

 

[smoothshooter]

We will never see $10 per box 9mm ammo again.
Will never drop below $16 / $17 per box.

 

[Dave Lively]

We will never see $10 per box 9mm ammo again.
Will never drop below $16 / $17 per box.

It already has dropped below $16. Norma had a sale right after Thanksgiving where it was a little under $15 including shipping.

I agree about never seeing $10 again. While I think $11 might be possible I not going to wait for that sort of price to start buying.

 

[Empe]

We will never see $10 per box 9mm ammo again.
Will never drop below $16 / $17 per box.

Never ? I purchased a case of 1000 rounds 9mm from Ammo Shop Online for $14.75 per 50 about 6 weeks ago. It's out there , you just have make the purchase when you see it .

 

[tops]

We will never see $10 per box 9mm ammo again.

I see a case setting across the room from me. Larry

 

[Eric300]

We will never see $10 per box 9mm ammo again.
Will never drop below $16 / $17 per box.

 

[scoobysnacker]

A year ago, I was one of the holdouts. $200 a case was my price point... I clearly remember cases being as low as $160 for S&B and Fiocchi. $200 didn't seem all that impossible to return to, once the rush was over.

After watching things for awhile, I picked up a case of Norma in November for $300. I didn't "need" it, but I could afford to add it, and I just don't like the way things are trending.

In my opinion, we could see things back down to $200 a case for known quality brands in 2 years... or we could see a ban of online purchasing nationally by then. I prefer the former, but am beginning to prepare for the latter.

If/when online gets shut down, the local prices will rise. Places like Academy and Cabela's etc no longer compete with Walmart, and they won't have to worry about Sgammo or Targetsportsusa either. No reason to sell below $15 a box at that point.

 

[waffles]

I posted at the beginning of this that it'd be a year and change and prices would get back to normal, then crater for a bit before the next panic as they always had. Now I think I was wrong, and I don't think $200/case centerfire is coming back. It's really changed my relationship with the shooting hobby, I'm now shooting practical things and rimfire to stay proficient, but I don't think I'll be doing anymore long days of just blasting away or friendly competitions.

These days most of the lead I'm slinging is split shot on the end of my tippet. It stinks but I'm priced out of the converting money into noise and fun category.

 

[ArchAngelCD]

I'm willing to pay $12.00 to $12.50 a box/50 but no more. I also doubt we will ever see $10/box again.

 

[Dave Lively]

. . .
It's really changed my relationship with the shooting hobby, I'm now shooting practical things and rimfire to stay proficient, but I don't think I'll be doing anymore long days of just blasting away or friendly competitions.
. . .

Its got me considering whether to hang on to the reloading equipment that has been gathering dust for the past 15 years. Even at today's price I am not considering reloading cartridges I shoot a lot of like 9mm and 223.

But a couple of cartridges I do not shoot very often have become very expensive and it might make sense to reload for them even though I do not like reloading.

In particular every two or three months I put about 100 rounds through my 44 and the ammo I like best is now over $1/round. And my favorite ammo for the bolt action 308 I shoot once or twice a year is now nearly $3/round. I expect those prices to come down too but given the small volume and high cost of those cartridges I am going to hang on to my press, scales, etc until I decide for sure.

 

[AlHunt]

Even handloading with a 10 cent primer is about $7.00/box if I use my cast bullets. If ammo prices drop and primers stay high, it might be worth buying factory ammo at $10.

 

[coachray]

I have enough supply to last my normal shooting (2 times a week), for about 3yrs. If I do need to buy any I'm hoping that by that time it's about 15.00 a box. I kind of agree we may never see 10.00 a box again.

 

[pharmer]

I'm willing to pay $12.00 to $12.50 a box/50 but no more. I also doubt we will ever see $10/box again.

Yeah, when $250/case hits I'll get 4. If it goes to $200 I'll get 5 more. That should hold me for this lifetime. I'm still shooting the last of my 2004 "BassPro mass purchase" of 13,500 rds of WWB 9mm 115gr ball @ $3.88/box. I bought about 6K Federal AE at the same time but that was $5/box. Joe

 

[BC38]

Answer: Pretty much however long it takes. With 2k worth of 9mm factory rounds and supplies to reload another 8k, I should be good for quite some time. Plus I can reload and shoot several other calibers AND I have 25k worth of 22lr stockpiled. By the time I get through all that and HAVE to buy ammo I'll likely not be very able or interested. If I'm not already pushing up daisies before then.

 

[ladder13]

 

[ISCS Yoda]

Lucky Gunner has 1000 rounds of Winchester white box 9mm for $550. That's 55 cents per round if my math is right = $27.50 for a box of 50 (the case actually has fifty 20-round boxes). They have training ammunition at .37 cents per round so fifty is $18.50. They have Tula 115 gr 9mm at $16.00 for fifty round boxes. Tula sales are about to be banned in the USA (I think it's an international political thing but I am uncertain) and Blazer for .17 cents a round making a fifty round box = $17.00 - - that's about as cheap as it's going to get presently. With inflation as it currently stands and supply way behind demand I'd recommend buying the ammo you need now if you I don't have a sufficient supply. It's not pretty out there..........

 

[ArchAngelCD]

Lucky Gunner has 1000 rounds of Winchester white box 9mm for $550. That's 55 cents per round if my math is right = $27.50 for a box of 50 (the case actually has fifty 20-round boxes). They have training ammunition at .37 cents per round so fifty is $18.50. They have Tula 115 gr 9mm at $16.00 for fifty round boxes. Tula sales are about to be banned in the USA (I think it's an international political thing but I am uncertain) and Blazer for .17 cents a round making a fifty round box = $17.00 - - that's about as cheap as it's going to get presently. With inflation as it currently stands and supply way behind demand I'd recommend buying the ammo you need now if you I don't have a sufficient supply. It's not pretty out there..........

Not to contradict you but @ 17¢ A round that would put a box of 50 @ $8.50, not $17. For $8.50 I think it's worth buying for sure.

 

[BC38]

Not to contradict you but @ 17¢ A round that would put a box of 50 @ $8.50, not $17. For $8.50 I think it's worth buying for sure.

I noticed that too.
I'm betting that should have said 34 cents a round or $17 per box of 50