So I guess NEVER really isn't such a long time after all, huh?
And we aren't even past the shortage yet - much less into the glut that will follow...
How long will you wait for $10/box 9mm?
- Thread starter Dave Lively
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And we aren't even past the shortage yet - much less into the glut that will follow...
Over the past week, I've loaded almost 2k but I don't cast my own, so they cost a bit more. I like using a semi-wadcutters, either 115 or 124 grain. I got a thing about nice round holes in paper!
ChillyDog
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I have to disagree, found 9mm FMJ last week for $13.99 a box. CCI brass.
sigp220.45
US Veteran
Yep. Same here. The market will work it out.
Yup, every ammo shortage so far has been followed by a glut that causes the bottom to fall out of the pricing. And every time, the folks with an Eeyore attitude lament "things will never be the same" and "get used to it this is the new normal".
The shortage has always been followed by a glut and it will happen again this time. There haven't been that many fundamental changes to the market forces that cause the cycle.
When all the dust settles and things normalize, will the prices end up being a little higher due to inflation? DUH! Of course they will - but only a LITTLE more - not double or triple like they are now (during the actual shortage). For the price to stay at 200% or 300% higher would require
1) the current shortage to continue indefinitely - we know that won't happen since it is already starting to ease up, or
2) the current level of inflation (7%) to continue unabated for the next 10+ years - or even get considerably worse.
Neither of those things are going to happen. The short term increase in demand and decrease in production will end. We're already starting to see prices fall. The supply & demand equation will balance out and we'll see cheap ammo again when they do.
The shortage has always been followed by a glut and it will happen again this time. There haven't been that many fundamental changes to the market forces that cause the cycle.
When all the dust settles and things normalize, will the prices end up being a little higher due to inflation? DUH! Of course they will - but only a LITTLE more - not double or triple like they are now (during the actual shortage). For the price to stay at 200% or 300% higher would require
1) the current shortage to continue indefinitely - we know that won't happen since it is already starting to ease up, or
2) the current level of inflation (7%) to continue unabated for the next 10+ years - or even get considerably worse.
Neither of those things are going to happen. The short term increase in demand and decrease in production will end. We're already starting to see prices fall. The supply & demand equation will balance out and we'll see cheap ammo again when they do.
scoobysnacker
Member
I hope you're right...
I've bought very little during this. I have a comfortable supply of most ammo. Ironically, my biggest want is steel-cased 7.62x39. I have several cases, and tended to not buy it much even as prices jumped; that jumped the least so I figured it would be safe. I have some SKS's, and decided to build an AR to shoot it since it was cheap.
That Russian ammo ban caught me there. I don't think it's going to come back down to the prices it was before. Would like to have added a couple more cases to future-proof.
ArchAngelCD
Moderator, SWCA Member, Absent Comrade
I will add, so did I and I saw it at a store I would never expect to see low prices, at the Field & Stream store. As a matter of fact the Blazer brass 9mm ammo was less expensive than the Blazer Aluminum ammo by $2.
I am shooting less than $3 a box 9mm past and present. Loaded with my cast bullets and stored components.
scoobysnacker
Member
without being rude...
unless you have an infinite supply of components, you and other reloaders are in the same boat (perhaps a different seat) as those of us who purchase manufactured ammo.
And when I say infinite supply, I mean that. Please don't say "I have more than enough to last a lifetime", because there are those of us who could claim the same with our stockpiled reserves of ammo. The point remains- given enough shooting (and the more the merrier, I think we all agree), reloaders will run out of components too.
The question remains, do we have enough x to ride this shortage out, and what will the price be going forward if we need to buy more? I have thousands of rds of various calibers, enough to wait out the demand. To do so, I've cut back on my shooting drastically, taking a lot of the fun out of things. I'm planning on not needing to buy ammo for at least a decade or more, at the rate I'm going now. If I hit my old pace, I'd probably make 5-6 yrs pretty easily. So this is more of an theoretical discussion on my part. I'd still like to see things settle down, so that we ALL can enjoy our hobby to the fullest.
THE PILGRIM
Member
The other day I was way up yonder on the Indian Nation,
(San Felipe Pueblo)
Riding my Toyota on the Reservation.
Bought Gas for $3.25.
I expect gas to be back in the $2 zone about the same time that 9mm gets down to $10.
(San Felipe Pueblo)
Riding my Toyota on the Reservation.
Bought Gas for $3.25.
I expect gas to be back in the $2 zone about the same time that 9mm gets down to $10.
StakeOut
US Veteran
I still have 40+ boxes of Walmart Perfecta 9mm that was $5.00/50
I have fired many thousands of those over the years without any problems. I have fired them in 39's, Sigs, RIA, and BHP's.
I will be very surprised if we see 9mm at $10.00/50 again. In any event I don't plan on waiting for it . Although I have several thousand rounds on hand that I purchased at pre pandemic prices I do go through a fair bit of it. I am buying here & there when I find it below $15.00/50 just to keep stocked up. Who knows what might happen in the near future to cause another shortage. Be prepared has always been the best advice in all things.
I always though the same thing but I did go ahead and try several boxes of CCI that I was able to purchase at a somewhat reasonable price. It shot and functioned fine in my Glock 34 that I use for steel plate matches. If priced right I would have no problem buying & using more. Unless you reload why pay extra for brass that you won't use anyway.
Chief Wiggums
Member
Inflation is at 7.5% today
1.7% this time last year
Oil is at $91+ per barrel today
27% increase from this time last year
pending all of the Ukrainian news , both of the above will likely go up
$10 aint happening anytime soon.
sub $15 is available all day long if you search.
as others have mentioned , by a couple boxes every week and stick to the schedule
1.7% this time last year
Oil is at $91+ per barrel today
27% increase from this time last year
pending all of the Ukrainian news , both of the above will likely go up
$10 aint happening anytime soon.
sub $15 is available all day long if you search.
as others have mentioned , by a couple boxes every week and stick to the schedule
I will buy more ammo, probably when Hell freezes over. I don’t shoot much and have a big supply. If it runs low, I have tens of thousands of primers and a lot of powder. If I run low on bullets, that might be a problem. All my casting equipment and several hundred pounds of wheel weights were stored at my late father in law’s home. I didn’t get it moved out before my sister in law sold it.
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Went in Academy today, 9 mm for about $16/50. Had CCI 22 standard velocity for $5.99, Walmart about 4 blocks away has it for $4.83, go figure, BTW both had Plenty of 22 s.
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Tim Stapp
Member
WOW!!! You guys that are finding any 9mm ammo at any price is amazing.
None to be found around me. I've got a meager supply of Winchester White Box bought at $20/50. I scored some primers, had a customer GIVE me 500 and have about 900 cases and 140 lbs. of lead to cast.
I'm not in great shape, but my nose is above water here.
None to be found around me. I've got a meager supply of Winchester White Box bought at $20/50. I scored some primers, had a customer GIVE me 500 and have about 900 cases and 140 lbs. of lead to cast.
I'm not in great shape, but my nose is above water here.
