Labor shortage?

[Telecaster]

I can't figure this out. I keep reading about a lack of people willing to work. How are those people surviving? The blanket answer, "welfare" isn't enough to explain it. Last time I checked, welfare doesn't last forever and doesn't pay a man diddly squat. A woman with multiple kids, maybe, but to an able-bodied man? Sure, a true slacker will choose to do nothing for a small amount of money vs. do a lot for more money, so they must be choosing a life of poverty. If so, how is housing demand so high? Who is paying these ridiculous housing prices?

The baby boom started in about '46 and today those people are 76 and are largely retired or nearing their actuarial limits. So the baby boom is about to fade, and people are having kids now at less than replacement rate. That means a population decline is inevitable, probably even with immigration factored in. That should eventually kill demand for labor, but slowly enough to adjust.

Why is demand for housing up? If so many people aren't working, and baby boomers retiring and passing on, how is that possible? The stuff we're told can't all be right, because it doesn't seem to add up.

 

[UncleEd]

Maybe the "stuff" YOU'RE told, not
WE'RE told, is coming from the wrong
medium.

 

[LVSteve]

A lot of them are living on the streets of Vegas, if you can call it "living".

 

[HOUSTON RICK]

Honest need aside, a lot of folks far more interested in what they get for nothing rather than ever doing anything. I call it lazy, but I am old and there are a lot of other new words and rationales that claim to redefine the situation.

 

[fordson]

With winter setting in up north, there are a lot of “unemployed “ folks panhandling at major intersections here in the greater Jacksonville area…..none out in the more rural areas where I live…..

 

[glenwolde]

This really isn't new. Labor economists have been warning about this for a decade. Covid just accelerated it, causing some to retire sooner than they would have otherwise.

I do think Social Security Disability fraud (aka the "Tennessee 401k") has added to the problem. All you need to qualify is have some sort of infirmity and the money for a lawyer.

 

[Muss Muggins]

The last three years have given the average hustler a graduate level experience in “the hustle . . . “

The thing that you and others similarly situated have to internalize is that about 60% of the population doesn’t live like you and I. It’s a day to day, one step ahead, hit up every gov’t and charitable program, ignore the mail and the calls from the bill collectors and the landlord, and just survive. They’re not striving for 40 acres and a lake house, they’re trying to make it to Saturday without going to jail or sleeping in their car.

It’s next to impossible to evict someone since COVID, and there’s only about a two week gap in spring and fall when you can disconnect utilities, and if there’s a baby in the home you can’t do it at all.

Like I said earlier, these people don’t live like you and me, and they don’t want to. All I know is that they don’t have $100 for the power company, but if Bubby goes to jail, they got $500 for me to get him out in an hour. Every so often I get rolls of quarters and a bag full of singles covered in glitter, but it all spends. Different lifestyles. You wouldn’t live like they do, and they can’t live like you do . . .

I can't figure this out. I keep reading about a lack of people willing to work. How are those people surviving? The blanket answer, "welfare" isn't enough to explain it. Last time I checked, welfare doesn't last forever and doesn't pay a man diddly squat. A woman with multiple kids, maybe, but to an able-bodied man? Sure, a true slacker will choose to do nothing for a small amount of money vs. do a lot for more money, so they must be choosing a life of poverty. If so, how is housing demand so high? Who is paying these ridiculous housing prices?

The baby boom started in about '46 and today those people are 76 and are largely retired or nearing their actuarial limits. So the baby boom is about to fade, and people are having kids now at less than replacement rate. That means a population decline is inevitable, probably even with immigration factored in. That should eventually kill demand for labor, but slowly enough to adjust.

Why is demand for housing up? If so many people aren't working, and baby boomers retiring and passing on, how is that possible? The stuff we're told can't all be right, because it doesn't seem to add up.

 

[Jon651]

The current US Unemployment Rate is 3.7%. Anything below 5% is generally considered "full employment" so from an employers perspective there just aren't that many people available to work, hence the labor shortage. And No, the methodology for determining this number hasn't changed in years.

My wife likes to blame the folks who for years used to tell people "If you don't like your job then quit and find something better." Apparently, they did.

 

[Yaworski]

My daughter says it's because young people are tired of working for low wages and not getting any respect. Surprise for them, you can work for high wages and not get any respect.

Last week, I went to the tire shop to get my daughter's snow tires mounted. He said, "I can get that in two days." Eight bays and only two tire guys. I went to another tire shop and they said we're backed up to Dec 3 because of no workers.

I guess if you're young with no wife and kids, you can mooch off mom and dad and cry about respect in the work place. Respect apparently means not being told what to do and taking frequent breaks.

A while back I worked with a young woman who told me that she had gone to school to be a medical assistant. I asked why she wasn't doing that. She told me that she had a job at a doctor's office but quit because "he was always telling me to do stuff." Huh? What kind of stuff, thinking the worst. "Oh, he tell me to take this person's BP or get blood from that guy." Isn't that your job?

 

[Rustyt1953]

Almost every Gen Xer and Millennial in my extend family and circle of acquaintances is gainfully employed.

Some of the jobs were not on their wish list but they are working nonetheless.

Good on them.

 

[Muss Muggins]

The current US Unemployment Rate is 3.7%. Anything below 5% is generally considered "full employment" so from an employers perspective there just aren't that many people available to work, hence the labor shortage. And No, the methodology for determining this number hasn't changed in years.

My wife likes to blame the folks who for years used to tell people "If you don't like your job then quit and find something better." Apparently, they did.

You do understand that the unemployment rate only only considers “those ready and able to work . . . ?” A significant portion of those not working are not drawing unemployment, not interested in drawing unemployment because it takes too much effort to keep job searching, and thus not included in the 3.7% . . .

 

[arjay]

I suspect a fair amount of housing is being bought up by various investors/speculators and the people who want to work for the wages and conditions offered are doing just that
.All of the homeless we see now boggles my mind and I suspect that’s because cheap residential hotels and boarding houses are mostly a thing of the past.There are some around,but they ain’t cheap anymore.

 

[venomballistics]

They seem to take a job for a while. Couple of weeks, maybe a month, then quit.
Lather rinse repeat

 

[Telecaster]

I suspect a fair amount of housing is being bought up by various investors/speculators and the people who want to work for the wages and conditions offered are doing just that
.All of the homeless we see now boggles my mind and I suspect that’s because cheap residential hotels and boarding houses are mostly a thing of the past.There are some around,but they ain’t cheap anymore.

Those “long term stay” places are often Indian owned cheap old motels that get shut down because they don’t meet building codes. Boarding houses ought to still exist, as they serve a purpose as you said, but the Karens don’t want to live next door to such places.

 

[Jon651]

You do understand that the unemployment rate only only considers “those ready and able to work . . . ?” A significant portion of those not working are not drawing unemployment, not interested in drawing unemployment because it takes too much effort to keep job searching, and thus not included in the 3.7% . . .

As I pointed out in my post, the methodology for determining the Unemployment Rate hasn't changed in years. I can't find the data, but it probably hasn't changed in decades so what we are seeing is not a new phenomenon. It's Economics 101 Law of Supply and Demand.

The long and short of it is, if you aren't looking for work for whatever reason then you aren't part of the labor force and therefore aren't counted. Percentages don't speak to absolute numbers but 3.7% is exceedingly low regardless if we have a larger labor pool or a smaller one. Everyone appears to need employees with the post-pandemic economic boom (except possibly for Twitter...) and demand has outstripped supply.

You can't force a person not in the labor pool to work, you can only plead with them or shame them - and neither are apparently very successful in expanding the numbers. The only thing you can do is entice those already willing to work with higher wages, which unfortunately can lead to inflation (one of many things that can).

So what do we do? Well, the Federal Reserve can try to slow the economy by raising interest rates so the demand for workers doesn't exceed the supply - and they are doing that. If anyone can figure out something else to do that won't either crash the economy or cause runaway inflation then I'll be happy to submit their name to the Nobel Prize Committee for Economics...

 

[twodog max]

Unemployment figures come from the government and therefore consist largely of totally processed male bovine fodder.

 

[venomballistics]

Not too long ago, and after overcoming some key hardships, I took a job in what is essentially Googles junk drawer.
I'm a few months in.Out of a group of 35 I was hired with, I'm the last man standing. Demographics are not limited to the young either

 

[Yaworski]

I'm a few months in.Out of a group of 35 I was hired with, I'm the last man standing.

Forty plus years ago when I was in college, my summer job was in a steel mill. Basically, they gave me a big bag and shoveled money into it. Every summer there were safety classes for the new hires, both full time and summer replacement. I was always astounded at how many guys wouldn't last the first month. Too hot, too noisy, too dirty, too scary.

 

[sigp220.45]

I used to be the FBI guy for 8 counties in Southern Idaho. My only fed buddies were the ICE agents there.

They were there because S Idaho is all dairies. At the time they were paying about three times the minimum wage, with benefits. All you had to do was be ready to go at 4am and stick milking things on cow boobs for several hours, in the dark and cold, and in semi-frozen poo and pee. Guess who were the only guys who would do it? Hence, the ICE boys.

Good thing those guys are here to molest those cows and send money home to mama, or your milk would cost 13 bucks a gallon.

 

[llowry61]

I may be way off base here, but I will share a couple of thoughts on the subject FWIW.

If a person's lifestyle is the same whether they work or not I guess not working makes sense in a weird sort of way.

Conceptually, you start at min wage and work your way up like many of us have, however there are some folks out there that this is the best they are going to do. I am by no means surprised that segments of the population are opting out of work. Others that might be able to do better over time are stuck because if they earn too much, they will lose their benefits. This one is a bit of a catch 22.

It is a complex problem that we have literally spent trillions on and the poverty rate remains static. The only difference is how poverty is defined. My sense is the definition of poverty today compared to poverty early in this century are very different.

We all have a responsibility to help those in need and as described the forums members do their fair share.

It is an economic fact that in a capitalist society there will be folks at the bottom of the financial pile.

 

[SMSgt]

This really isn't new. Labor economists have been warning about this for a decade. Covid just accelerated it, causing some to retire sooner than they would have otherwise.

I do think Social Security Disability fraud (aka the "Tennessee 401k") has added to the problem. All you need to qualify is have some sort of infirmity and the money for a lawyer.

Don't need money. The lawyers will take their cut right out of your first payments.

Years ago, when I lived in Spokane, WA, the Forestry Dept ran an ad for laborers to plant seedlings in the logged/burned areas in northern ID. They hired a bunch of immigrant labor. The locals raised cane with the usual accusations until the Forestry Dept told them--These are the only ones who responded to the ad. None of your locals showed up.

Mike Rowe would tell you Americans have mostly lost the will and desire to do actual labor. They'd rather earn their living in front of a computer screen. You know, like "professional" gamers.

 

[Muss Muggins]

Yeah, that’s it. Why are you whining? That’s what we’ve brought upon ourselves . . .

Edit: Nobody that you are talking about gives tin snot about the Federal Reserve. I doubt they even know it exists. . .

As I pointed out in my post, the methodology for determining the Unemployment Rate hasn't changed in years. I can't find the data, but it probably hasn't changed in decades so what we are seeing is not a new phenomenon. It's Economics 101 Law of Supply and Demand.

The long and short of it is, if you aren't looking for work for whatever reason then you aren't part of the labor force and therefore aren't counted. Percentages don't speak to absolute numbers but 3.7% is exceedingly low regardless if we have a larger labor pool or a smaller one. Everyone appears to need employees with the post-pandemic economic boom (except possibly for Twitter...) and demand has outstripped supply.

You can't force a person not in the labor pool to work, you can only plead with them or shame them - and neither are apparently very successful in expanding the numbers. The only thing you can do is entice those already willing to work with higher wages, which unfortunately can lead to inflation (one of many things that can).

So what do we do? Well, the Federal Reserve can try to slow the economy by raising interest rates so the demand for workers doesn't exceed the supply - and they are doing that. If anyone can figure out something else to do that won't either crash the economy or cause runaway inflation then I'll be happy to submit their name to the Nobel Prize Committee for Economics...

 

[Yaworski]

My sense is the definition of poverty today compared to poverty early in this century are very different.

I have a friend whose father grew up in a one room shack. Mother, father, and eight kids in one room. That's poor. He joined the army to escape.

Today, if you're poor you get better health insurance than people who work for a living, free food, free phone, free internet, rent assistance and more. Let's add that up.

I'm currently paying $175 a month for health insurance. Food it varies but I've read that $200 a month isn't uncommon for someone collecting SNAP. $50 a month for phone. Another $50 for internet. Let's say $300 a month for rent assistance. That's $775 tax free. If we add a fudge factor for taxes, that's about 65 hours at $15 per hour.

 

[Yaworski]

You know, like "professional" gamers.

It's amazing what some of those guys earn.

If I was a hot young woman, I'd be on OnlyFans making as much as Dr. Fauci.

 

[GypsmJim]

Lots of reasons.

Some of the youngins don't work because it's beneath them and they are comfortable living with their parents.

Many boomers retired and are living off SS so they don't need to work.

Companies have reduced the workforce because they found out they can live without them. Ever look at customer service these days - it's non-existent.

The pandemic (AKA ******) has had a profound impact on companies business and profits. They won't hire new employees because they are still trying to recoup the losses when they were shut down. (see customer service above)

 

[crankyoldlady]

There is a great crash coming and there is nothing we can do. Nothing! You will own nothing and you will be happy.

 

[pantannojack]

I'm a wyt guy, a Viet vet. I earned my passage in right to work state, construction states. i got no envy for bushiness which made money off my contribution. I resent the policy some managers used of down talking along CLASS lines. I usually quit when it happened. Business prefer illegal labor because they can intimidate workers. Politicians wish to intimidate citizens along similar lines. Interpret as you wish.

 

[Kinman]

People in general have learned to live with less, at least from what I've seen. It's funny how people will always have money for whatever it may be that they want. Some will cry poverty, yet are running around in a fairly new car, with their nails and hair done, eating at fast food places all the time. I sometimes wonder if many boomers are now living off what their parents left them, whether that is the old home or left over from their retirement savings...that older generation believed in saving money. I know dozens of boomers that have their kids and often their kids (grandkids) living under their roofs. My neighbor across the street has two twenty somethings' sons still living with them. The younger one has a girlfriend that just had a child. My neighbor has turned the basement into an apartment with kitchen and all for them. He loves having the family around. I hear some pretty bad stories from young guys working at Amazon and UPS, workloads above and beyond what I would consider fair, and I was in labor all my working life. I know I had to put my foot down when my son asked us to literally buy a house on acreage worth upwards of $600K. He said, "Wouldn't you like to see me enjoy my inheritance while you're alive?" I remember being shocked that he would even bring something like that up but do remember responding with "I believe the key word is "alive", last time I checked we are both still alive...inheritance implies something being left behind when we no longer need it." Consequently, due to that conversation and other political differences we haven't spoken for over a year, we should have done it twenty-five years ago.

 

[SMSgt]

Amazing how so many in poverty can drive a Mercedes and have bigger flatscreen TVs than I can afford.

 

[swsig]

...Last week, I went to the tire shop to get my daughter's snow tires mounted. He said, "I can get that in two days." Eight bays and only two tire guys. I went to another tire shop and they said we're backed up to Dec 3 because of no workers...

Last week I went to Discount Tire to get new tires. The place was full of customers, but because I ordered my tires and paid online in advance, I went to the head of the line. I was in and out of there with four new mounted and balanced tires in less than an hour. The shop was swarming with employees, so even the non-VIP customers didn't appear to wait very long. Maybe Discount Tire attracts employees because they pay well, or maybe Texans have a strong work ethic, but in any case they treated me well. So if you have one in your area, I can recommend them for your tire needs.