Local Gun Store - Well Stocked But Overpriced

[GT_80]

Took a quick run out to a local gun store yesterday. The shelves were really packed and not many people buying. No restrictions on anything, but still 2x pre pandemic pricing. They were running "sales" on some items which were still overpriced.

Reloading supplies were slim, they had Hornady XTP bullets in .38, 55 grain .22 for 223 and .45. A few pounds of Accurate powder, and 0 primers.

Feels like supply is starting to catch up. If prices are going to come down, they should start to do so soon. I can't imagine supply issues continuing with what I am seeing available on-line and locally, unless we have additional shutdowns.

Just my .02.

Most of the small and even medium sized shops around me are stocking up, but same story as you... Prices are still way up.

I hate to admit it, but I buy as much of my 22 and shotgun shells as I can from Walmart and Cabelas. Every once in a while Cabelas has like .38 special for like $24 a box of 50 or some decent 9mm for like $17 a box of 50 - but they usually don't have a lot... they have a ton of .223 and 5.56 but no one is buying it because it is is still $14 for 20 rounds and bulk packs are 40 cents a round and up. Supply is getting a little better though.

There are a couple high volume shops in my area (within an hour) that have the best local prices on ammo, I try to stop in once in a while, but most of my buying has been from Target Sports USA - Free Shipping On Bulk Ammo & All Firearms when I can't find it anywhere else.

 

[BC38]

FWIW, I recently bought 1,000 Berry’s plated 38 HBWC from their site. ~$145.

What I’m not seeing as often now as I was six months or a year ago is the Cabelas/Bass Pro house brand Herter’s ammo (loaded by Winchester) for sale in local gun stores at 2-3 times the Cabelas/Bass pro price.

Even 14.5 cents apiece looks like highway robbery to me. I have tens of thousands of 9mm/38/357 projectiles I bought for 5-10 cents each as recently as 2-3 years ago. Xtreme was selling them by the thousand for 50-60 bucks.
I know all about 7% inflation over the last year, but a 200%-400% increase in 3 years is more than I'm willing to stomach.
Prices will likely never get back down to what they were, but I'll wait until they get back down to something more like inflation adjusted prices instead of panic-induced shortage prices.
That would be more like 5.5-11 cents apiece at 7% inflation. When production catches up (assuming it ever does) those are the kinds of prices I expect we'll see.

 

[llowry61]

Even 14.5 cents apiece looks like highway robbery to me. I have tens of thousands of 9mm/38/357 projectiles I bought for 5-10 cents each as recently as 2-3 years ago. Xtreme was selling them by the thousand for 50-60 bucks.
I know all about 7% inflation over the last year, but a 200%-400% increase in 3 years is more than I'm willing to stomach.
Prices will likely never get back down to what they were, but I'll wait until they get back down to something more like inflation adjusted prices instead of panic-induced shortage prices.
That would be more like 5.5-11 cents apiece at 7% inflation. When production catches up (assuming it ever does) those are the kinds of prices I expect we'll see.

I am not so naive that I think we will see the same prices as before, but I do fully expect prices to come down and I plan to wait it out as well.

To those who think this is the new normal just consider the lumber market and how it has fluctuated based on production capacity and demand. The same thing applies here. Only time will tell, and I hope I am right for all of our sake.

 

[AJ]

Our LGS resembles the title of this thread. But for the next week they are closed due to the lack of staff. They all have either Covid or the Flu....

 

[Arub01]

People keep complaining about prices but some keep buying. One economics view is that something is worth what it sells (exchanges hands) for. So, if you actually buy "over priced" ammo, or anything else, you must have deemed it to be worth what you paid for it. Why complain?

 

[llowry61]

People keep complaining about prices but some keep buying. One economics view is that something is worth what it sells (exchanges hands) for. So, if you actually buy "over priced" ammo, or anything else, you must have deemed it to be worth what you paid for it. Why complain?

Fair point. I agree and am not buying. The free market is definitely in play here and will work itself out.

 

[John Patrick]

Even 14.5 cents apiece looks like highway robbery to me. I have tens of thousands of 9mm/38/357 projectiles I bought for 5-10 cents each as recently as 2-3 years ago. Xtreme was selling them by the thousand for 50-60 bucks.
I know all about 7% inflation over the last year, but a 200%-400% increase in 3 years is more than I'm willing to stomach.
Prices will likely never get back down to what they were, but I'll wait until they get back down to something more like inflation adjusted prices instead of panic-induced shortage prices.
That would be more like 5.5-11 cents apiece at 7% inflation. When production catches up (assuming it ever does) those are the kinds of prices I expect we'll see.

I think that’s wishful thinking. Producer Price Index was up 9.7% in 2021, the highest recorded (since the current index calculation began.) I think ammo prices track better with PPI than CPI, which is “watered down” with some necessities underweighted or not counted, like fuel.

I also suspect that the plaited bullets have always been a bit more than typical cast or swaged bullets, but don’t recall since my bullet buying has been limited in caliber and type.

But I hope you’re right and prices continue to drop.

 

[ArchAngelCD]

People keep complaining about prices but some keep buying. One economics view is that something is worth what it sells (exchanges hands) for. So, if you actually buy "over priced" ammo, or anything else, you must have deemed it to be worth what you paid for it. Why complain?

This is true IMO too. Sometimes we are our own worse enemy. People will pay prices they know are too high and then they buy anything and everything they see on the shelf exacerbating the problem.

Of course if you have no ammo left at all you will have to make the choice of paying highly inflated prices or not shoot at all. Everyone has to make that decision for themselves and we have no right to judge their choice. That said, if you see only a few boxes on the shelf don't clean them out, buy what you need and leave some for the next person. (all IMO of course)

 

[AJ]

This is true IMO too. Sometimes we are our own worse energy. People will pay prices they know are too high and then they buy anything and everything they see on the shelf exacerbating the problem.

Of course if you have no ammo left at all you will have to make the choice of paying highly inflated prices or not shoot at all. Everyone has to make that decision for themselves and we have no right to judge their choice. That said, if you see only a few boxes on the shelf don't clean them out, buy what you need and leave some for the next person. (all IMO of course)

Some of the folks want to shoot no matter what the price. For some of the folks just getting into shooting these prices may seem normal to them. I hope these folks can figure out they are part of the cause the prices are so high by their willingness to pay the high prices. Inflation has something to do with it and the lack of raw materials may also have a bearing on the costs. Guess we just have to ride it out.

For me, I have not bought any ammo in two years. Between the factory .22 ammo and the fact that I reload for every centerfire hand gun I own has saved me from the high prices. My purchasing firearms has slowed down too.

 

[ladder13]

Within the current inflationary period we are experiencing, I believe the best that can be hoped for is that prices may stabilize at a higher level. I do not expect to see any significant price declines soon. I hope I am wrong.

I have observed that stores and restaurants, at least locally, seem to be drawing noticeably fewer customers over the last few weeks. Of course there may well be several good reasons for that, but I believe that one of them is that many consumers are finding prices have gone too high and are reducing or deferring spending for discretionary and non-essential items. That is how economics is supposed to work.

Yeah, restaurant prices have escalated rapidly.
Lack of product.
Lack of workers.
Labor costs have skyrocketed to attract and keep the few that apply.

Higher inflation is here for quite awhile. How does a business go backwards from paying double+ with benefits as many have been forced to do?
I know people think higher wages are great for the “downtrodden” workers but has it really improved their lives when costs are outstripping those increase in wages?

As far as shooting, I have to eat, I don’t have to shoot.

 

[Ackley1952]

Quality guns are not going to go down. They never have and never will. Used smith and Wesson’s sell for more than they did when new. This is a good thing cause when gun prices start going down it’ll be time to load them all cause something strange is coming.

 

[giants1]

I realize that the 2012 ammo shortage was under different circumstances than now, but does anyone know how long that shortage lasted and what trends took place near the end, eg certain calibers becoming more available and/or cheaper first?

 

[GF]

I went to my local LGS to view the carnage that is their ammo display.
$65 boxes of 110gr 357, $19 for 50 rounds of Stinger 22 rimfire and so on.
I did see something that interested me for a second, S&B 300blk in 200gr subsonic.
It was my most fired round right behind 22 rimfire.
$25 for a 20 round box. I didn't bite.

I'm gettin' kinda old these days.
I bought all that ammo back in the day for a reason.
I may shoot up my stash of ammo and then buy a bass boat.

 

[OldOutlaw]

Eh, same with energy companies. Same with banks.

I don’t buy into this conspiracy theory.

I work a gun counter at a Bass Pro Shop on Sunday mornings. It’s clear US ammo companies are rotating the ammo they’re producing. Now that production is much stronger than it was and The Remington plant is back in business, we’re seeing a glut of 9mm, followed by a glut of 40S&W, then a glut of 45acp. Some 38spl here and there, likewise 380… Then repeat.

For shotshells, it’s similar. Pallets of 12ga target ammo, then pallets of 20ga target ammo, then lots Turkey ammo, then waterfowl ammo… rinse and repeat.

For rifles. It’s a glut of FMj 5.56, then 7.62x51, a smattering of hunting ammo then a glut of 7.62x39. Rinse and repeat.

We see primers about as often as 380 ammo. Same with powder. Same with brass.

I will say it’s astonishing how much ammo is still being bought. Prices are down some, pretty much across the board. But I don’t think they’ll return to pre COVID/riots prices.

I am seeing the same around here at stores. I also see it happening online. Manufacturers only run certain calibers for X period of time. Then change tooling and run another caliber.
And so it goes as it has been always.


Now, I have seen various ammo shortages for what ever reason for the last 60 years. I have not seen prices completely return to any pre-shortage prices. Nor will they IMO this time either.



Material cost, labor costs, and inflation alone will keep prices higher than they were in 2019. And don't forget about World Conflict situations.I think what I am seeing happen now is this for 9mm. US made brass 9mm will most likely bottom out at about $.30 per round. ($15 per box) for 115gr FMJ.

Perhaps down to $.28 per round.



Now, this Ukraine situation may well have our companies
go full bore again on Military Orders. For us and so called Allies. In turn, making ammo less available to us and raise prices again. Just beware!!



I have been pretty accurate on this situation before. That is why I no longer need to purchase any 9mm for what years I may have left.

 

[OldOutlaw]

I realize that the 2012 ammo shortage was under different circumstances than now, but does anyone know how long that shortage lasted and what trends took place near the end, eg certain calibers becoming more available and/or cheaper first?

I can't remember how long it lasted. However, near the end a certain caliber came back first. Then another one and so on. One caliber at a time. Just as we are seeing again today.