More guns equal more crime? Not in 2009, FBI crime report shows.

[Bullseye 2620]

From today's Christian Science Monitor:

After several years of crime rates holding relatively steady, the FBI is reporting that violent crimes – including gun crimes – dropped dramatically in the first six months of 2009, with murder down 10 percent across the US as a whole.

Concurrently, the FBI reports that gun sales – especially of assault-style rifles and handguns, two main targets of gun-control groups – are up at least 12 percent nationally since the election of President Obama.

“We can absolutely draw a fact-based conclusion about [whether there’s a correlation between declining crime rates and increasing gun ownership], and the answer is no,” says David Kennedy, director of the Center for Crime Prevention and Control in New York. “There are very consistent findings that the acquisition and obtaining of carry permits by ordinary law-abiding people has either no or very little impact on the crime rate.”

“When you’re seeing declines [in violent crime] both in cities like Atlanta, which is in a relatively gun-friendly state, and in places like New York City, where it is essentially impossible for ordinary folks to acquire and carry especially handguns, then it’s not the guns that are driving the [statistics],” Mr. Kennedy says.



Bullseye

 

[imashooter2]

“When you’re seeing declines [in violent crime] both in cities like Atlanta, which is in a relatively gun-friendly state, and in places like New York City, where it is essentially impossible for ordinary folks to acquire and carry especially handguns, then it’s not the guns that are driving the [statistics],” Mr. Kennedy says.

Well then why do Mr. Kennedy and his organization continue to push for further restrictions on gun ownership?

 

[DeathGrip]

So what do you suppose is driving the statistics down?
Gangs,poverty,unemployment,dope?I don't get it.
Maybe it's the high moral standards taught in schools?
T.V.?Music?



D.G.

 

[tops]

Ther should also be more laws that say that any property is worth more than a thiefs life. Also laws that say you do not have to retreat as long as there is air at your back. That would give first offenders something to think about and there would be no second offenders. Larry

 

[Andy Griffith]

Crimes may be down because people have less to fight over?

Busy folks stay out of trouble. They may be making less, but working more.

"Idle hands are the devil's workshop."


I honestly don't believe that you can classify crime into numbers alone.
There are only a few things that motivate people to crime:
Lust, pride, envy and plain old meanness!

 

[Bullseye 2620]

DG,

As to why the crime rate is going down while the purchase of firearms has gone up is simple: the folks buying the guns (you and me) ain't the folks doing the crime.

EDIT: AS CAP'N STEVE POINTS OUT BELOW, THE FOLLOWING DATA WAS PUBLISHED BY AN ORGANIZATION THAT THE RESPECTED ANTI-DEFAMATION LEAGUE HAS CHARACTERIZED AS PROMOTING 'GENTEEL RACISM.' SEE MY SUBSEQUENT POST FOR MORE RELIABLE DATA.

Race

• Blacks are seven times more likely than people of other races to commit murder, and eight times more likely to commit robbery.
• When blacks commit crimes of violence, they are nearly three times more likely than non-blacks to use a gun, and more than twice as likely to use a knife.
• Hispanics commit violent crimes at roughly three times the white rate, and
• Asians commit violent crimes at about one quarter the white rate.
• The single best indicator of violent crime levels in an area is the percentage of the population that is black and Hispanic.

Interracial Crime

• Of the nearly 770,000 violent interracial crimes committed every year involving blacks and whites, blacks commit 85 percent and whites commit 15 percent.
• Blacks commit more violent crime against whites than against blacks. Forty-five percent of their victims are white, 43 percent are black, and 10 percent are Hispanic. When whites commit violent crime, only three percent of their victims are black.
• Blacks are an estimated 39 times more likely to commit a violent crime against a white than vice versa, and 136 times more likely to commit robbery.
• Blacks are 2.25 times more likely to commit officially-designated hate crimes against whites than vice versa.

Gangs

• Only 10 percent of youth gang members are white.
• Hispanics are 19 times more likely than whites to be members of youth gangs. Blacks are 15 times more likely, and Asians are nine times more likely.

Incarceration

• Between 1980 and 2003 the US incarceration rate more than tripled, from 139 to 482 per 100,000, and the number of prisoners increased from 320,000 to 1.39 million.
• Blacks are seven times more likely to be in prison than whites. Hispanics are three times more likely than whites.


Other studies in the past have looked particularly at the use of guns in violent crimes in terms of race and what emerges is the same pattern -- the use of firearms in the commission of crimes is highly associated with race.


Best regards,



Bullseye

 

[charlie sherrill]

Sentences for violent offenders are longer now. Criminals very often remove themselves from a life of crime. An example is when one criminal murders another and the result is two criminals are removed from society. This happens very often in the drug world. In my experience, the large majority of guns used in crimes are obtained from sources other than legal gunshops. Most were stolen or traded for drugs. Very few were legally purchased and this includes FTF transactions. If you sell a gun FTF make sure you know who you're selling it to. They may problems later on if the guy you sold it to is a convicted felon and later uses the gun in a crime.

 

[DeathGrip]

Bullseye,
That's the ugly truth and it sure aint P.C.In my locale I'm see'n more white "gangsters" than ever.Discusting!
The thing that burns me up is the glorifying of felons on the socalled educational channels.Think,Dog the bounty hunter and the newest one "Pitt Boss"that even the advertisement tells you that he "was" a bad midget.Then goes on to show him attempting to break into someones place to save a pittbull....Gimme a living break!!!

D.G.

 

[Capt Steve]

Bullseye, I would think twice about quoting anything from Jared Taylor. Do a little research on who he is, and who he represents, boards he sits on etc.. About the only thing missing in his resume is a set of white sheets.

I am as delighted as anyone at the reduction of violent crime and agree that law abiding citizens not only are not the problem but probably are helping to a degree. Taylor's questionable manipulation of statistics is so blatantly racist it hard to imagine anyone taking him seriously. Statistics can lead one to just about any conclusion desired.

I believe that most crime is more a function of economic realities than race. The economy gets better/worse and it is reflected in the incidence and nature of crimes committed. I think there are two reasons for the decline in crime: First, slowly but surely the economy is beginning to improve. If it continues to do so hopefully we will see a commensurate continuing decrease in crime. Secondly there has been a huge increase in gun ownership by us good guys. Whats ironic is that this rush to arm America has been largely due to the right wings knee jerk reaction to Obama. I am all for it whatever the reason. The second amendment seems to be holding its own of late and gun rights have taken on a PC aura of their own. No bad news in that. Just my 2 cents worth.

 

[Group 4]

The 3 strikes law in California has been responsible for putting away a lot of career criminals who are responsible for the bulk of our problem.

 

[Bullseye 2620]

Bullseye, I would think twice about quoting anything from Jared Taylor. Do a little research on who he is, and who he represents, boards he sits on etc.. About the only thing missing in his resume is a set of white sheets.

Well, I'll be dipped. I've never heard of either one (Taylor or his foundation) which just shows ta go ya how uninformed the well-informed can be. To tell the truth I was looking on-line for a DoJ statistical report, couldn't locate it, and used the quoted material instead. That is what I get for being lazy, and I apologize to all concerned.

Race and economics both come into play of course. But, I do recall several studies that controlled for poverty in the analysis and found that race was still highly correlated to violent crime and specifically handgun use in the commission of felonies. As penance, I will do my homework and report some less questionable data as soon as possible.

Thank you Cap'n for bringing this to my attention. I stand humbly chastened.



Bullseye

 

[DeathGrip]

Let the chips lay where they fall.Or something to that effect.

D.G.

 

[Damn Yankee]

MSN has a short article on this subject.

Will crime drop keep gun sales rising?- Top Stocks - MSN Money

 

[Bullseye 2620]

Better Data on Race and Murder

Here are the official DoJ statistics. There is a lot of interesting information here:

Bureau of Justice Statistics Homicide trends in the U.S.: Trends by race

Some of the highlights:

• in 2005 blacks were 6 times more likely than whites to be victims of homicides and 7 times more likely than whites to commit them;

• for the 30-year period 1976 - 2005, 65% of all drug related homicides were perpetrated by blacks, and 34% by whites;

• for the same period, 54% of gang-related homicides were committed by whites (including non-black Latinos), and 41% were committed by blacks;

• for the same period, 86% of white victims were killed by whites, and 94% of all black victims were killed by blacks;

• during this 30-year period, whites were more likely to be the offenders in cases involving multiple victims, but blacks were more likely to be the offenders in cases involving multiple assailants.

Teasing out the handgun vs. other weapon data is more complicated, but I'm working on it. Again, I apologize for posting that data from the apparently white supremacist New Century Foundation.


Bullseye

 

[cabindriver]

Teasing out the handgun vs. other weapon data is more complicated, but I'm working on it. Bullseye

I don't know how hard it is to find, or even if you're so inclined, but I would like to see rates across the decades. Thanks for the information so far.

 

[Bullseye 2620]

A Response to Cabindriver's Question and More Interesting Facts

Here it is, showing raw number of homicides by weapons type, by year:

I do not know if this can be further broken down by race of perpetrator and victim, but there is some interesting data available in terms of the connection between age of the offender and the use of a gun. The percentage of homicide victims killed with a gun increases with age up to age 17 and declines thereafter. See: Bureau of Justice Statistics Homicide trends in the U.S.: Weapons Used

If there is interest, I will do what I can to develop some further reliable information.

In the meantime, the best statistical analysis ever performed on the relationship between gun ownership, concealed weapons permits, and crime is to be found in John Lott's book, "More Guns, Less Crime." Here is an interview with Lott in which he demonstrates (to scientists) in a convincing manner, that for each additional year that a concealed handgun permit law is in effect the murder rate declines by 3 percent, rape by 2 percent, and robberies by over 2 percent:

Interview with John Lott, author of More Guns, Less Crime

Other fascinating findings reported by Lott include:

• The effect of "shall-issue" laws on mass shootings has been dramatic. When states passed these laws, the number of multiple-victim shootings declined by 84 percent. Deaths from these shootings plummeted on average by 90 percent, and injuries by 82 percent.

• An additional woman carrying a concealed handgun reduces the murder rate for women by about 3 to 4 times more than an additional man carrying a concealed handgun reduces the murder rate for men.

• High crime urban areas and neighborhoods with large minority populations have the greatest reductions in violent crime when citizens are legally allowed to carry concealed handguns.



Bullseye

 

[cabindriver]

Thanks for that link.
I couldn't copy the link for the table, but go to this page and select crime rates for the U.S. from 1960 to 2007. It's clear that, even with crime dropping, we're not the country we were half a century ago.
Bureau of Justice Statistics Crime and Justice Data Online

 

[Gutpile Charlie]

"Secondly there has been a huge increase in gun ownership by us good guys. Whats ironic is that this rush to arm America has been largely due to the right wings knee jerk reaction to Obama. I am all for it whatever the reason."

____________________________________________________________

Right wing knee jerk reaction?

Really?

Here again, I think if you really believe that, we live in parallel universes.

Obama is the most anti gun, left wing, socialist, communist, libtard politician that I can remember. He is completely anti American and will do anything he can get away with to permanently change our country and way of life. He personally believes that he is above the law and is a bold face lair!

Knee jerk?

You've got to be kidding.

 

[cabindriver]

First, slowly but surely the economy is beginning to improve. If it continues to do so hopefully we will see a commensurate continuing decrease in crime.

The report says, "After several years of crime rates holding relatively steady, the FBI is reporting that violent crimes – including gun crimes – dropped dramatically in the first six months of 2009, with murder down 10 percent across the US as a whole."

Where have we seen this improvement in the economy that would give a dramatic drop in the crime rate?

 

[Gutpile Charlie]

Oh yes Steve, in case you haven't noticed, the economy is in the toilet.

This was FYI!