Not a good time to command Russian troops

[UncleEd]

I believe those who minimize the
gains Ukraine has made don't
realize how important the taking
of the Kharkiv region was.

If during winter Ukraine holds the
region, Russian efforts to supply
its forces will continue to be dismal.

The Ukrainians even before retaking
Kharkiv were extremely effective in
hitting Russian supply dumps and
routes.

While it's true the Russians may
continue to turn some Ukrainian
cities into rubble, the Ukrainians
might well be grinding the entire
Russian force into the ground.

Remember the elderly Ukrainian
woman who gave a Russian soldier
a packet of sunflower seeds so
that his body might fertilize them.

 

[Der Verminator]

As a good number of EU nations are also members of NATO, the thought of them losing interest in this war is frankly absurd. They joined NATO for a reason.

They joined NATO for protection.

Ukraine is not a NATO member.

Ukraine is not protecting anybody.......in fact, the opposite........and has no claim for protection.

There will be sympathy for Ukraine, but sympathy wanes when it starts to cost you a lot in money and worse, pain and even hunger.

This winter will be a starvation winter in many nations due to the loss of wheat from Russia and Ukraine........suffering will extend to most parts of the world.

Pressure will be heavy and increasing for Ukraine to agree to a peace settlement.

If they refuse..........much of the sympathy for them will end.

 

[UncleEd]

Starting in July, wheat and corn
has been shipped from Ukraine
using Odessa and safe passage
routes in the Black Sea.

Also more exports were being made
through Romania, Poland and
Lithuania.

Chief buyers of Ukraine wheat are
Egypt, Ethiopia and Indonesia.
As soon as shipments began, prices
forf the commodities fell.

However, Russia is lagging in its
exports.

 

[Der Verminator]

Starting in July, wheat and corn
has been shipped from Ukraine
using Odessa and safe passage
routes in the Black Sea.

Also more exports were being made
through Romania, Poland and
Lithuania.

Chief buyers of Ukraine wheat are
Egypt, Ethiopia and Indonesia.
As soon as shipments began, prices
forf the commodities fell.

However, Russia is lagging in its
exports.

Near as I can figure from a lot of news stories, Ukraine normally ships about 45 million tons of grain a year and this year has shipped three to four million tons with only three months left in the year.

And there seems to be some doubt as to whether or not even this small amount will continue.

High fertilizer prices are scaring all the producers.

Also........the problems of war mean next year's crop will be a lot smaller so there won't even be the usual amount available.

Russia still totally controls the Black Sea shipping and there is no predicting when Putin might shut things down again.

All in all......the future is not looking good in the Ukraine bread basket.

FAO food price index fell sharply in July but the respite may not last

 

[IronSkillet]

FWIW from us wheat.org;

U.S. wheat highlights included the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimate of 34.4 million acres of winter wheat planted for harvest in 2022. That is the largest area since 2016/17. The report noted that “combined spring and durum wheat plantings for 2022/23 are also projected higher,” but could be constrained by higher potential return from other crops that farmers in the Northern Plains can grow

 

[bushmaster1313]

I have no first hand experience, but I read that battles end when one side loses its will to fight. We can only hope that Russia is losing its will and Ukraine’s will is gathering strength. Zelensky and those he inspires are worthy of our admiration.

 

[Greyman50]

Regardless of “ reports” from Russia the internet has changed Russians ability “ to see the rest of the world”. Revelations and outside news has certainly changed many Russians “ view of things”. This is reflected in the actions of Russian troops. Conscripted troops will just add to Russia’s losses. By chance ole Putin is holding his “ reserves” only time will tell. The Big question is, just how many “ reserve troops” does he have???

 

[Greyman50]

Russia is not the same as it was under communist rule, sure its still very corrupt But the internet has changed how many average Russians see the world. This will be reflected more so with conscript troops. Think the losses we have seen are bad? Wait until the conscripts hit the front lines. By chance ole Putin has reserves, how many and how are they equiped?

 

[Rudi]

Puti looks to have reached the bottom of the barrel. Plus, in WWII they had been attacked, patriotism and love for Mother Russia played a big role. Not this time.

 

[Greyman50]

Not sure what happened to my post???? Didn’t show up so did sort of a repeat????

 

[Der Verminator]

The Moscow Times is an independent paper now based in Amsterdam after being banned in Russia.

It's a good source of more accurate news and some stories we won't get from American Media.

Russia to Hand Summons to Conscripted Reservists at Georgia Border - The Moscow Times

Russian military reservists attempting to travel to neighboring Georgia to escape Moscow’s “partial” mobilization will be handed their draft summons at the border, regional authorities in southern Russia said Tuesday.

“Citizens of the Russian Federation who are wishing to leave the country but are subject to enlistment will receive summons at the border with Georgia,” the state-run TASS news agency quoted the head of the republic of North Ossetia’s press service as saying Tuesday.

 

[bushmaster1313]

Puti looks to have reached the bottom of the barrel. Plus, in WWII they had been attacked, patriotism and love for Mother Russia played a big role. Not this time.

In WWII it was do or die for the Russians as they were considered subhuman by the invading Nazi’s. The Russian men, and women, fought hard and brave and won the war.

 

[UncleEd]

In WWII, remember it was the
Soviet Union which included many
people INCLUDING Ukrainians.

Nazi stupidity/brutality created a
united Slavic force.

 

[Greyman50]

Just read couple articles from reliable source. One said Ruskies just lost brand new 152mm S.P. gun.
Second said new conscripts are not trained, only given uniform , weapon and ammo. No field hear, first aid or food.

 

[Der Verminator]

Here's information from an actual (and named and linked) "reliable source."

Understanding Russia’s Mobilisation | Royal United Services Institute

Russia's call up of reserves is, like all things Russian, slow and disorganized.

But it may not be as bad as the biased American Media would have us believe.

And, in the end, it may be effective. Putin can let Ukraine suffer a cold and difficult winter with little food and heat while he gets the bulk of his reinforcements trained.

After winter numbs the Ukraine resolve and saps their strength, a Russian spring offensive with the activated reserves could be successful.

Putin is in no hurry and will let winter do its work.

Time is on his side.

This is the most interesting military action since WWII.

President Vladimir Putin announced the long-awaited mobilisation of Russian society to fight the war in Ukraine on 21 September.

His speech, and the decree released at the same time, set in motion a series of actions across Russia’s military, and notionally its economy too, to prepare the country for war.

However, there is a lot to understand about Russia’s system of mobilisation and how it has changed in the past 30 years.

The specific conditions set forth in Putin’s decree cover those with former military experience, especially in desired areas such as drivers, gunners and artillerymen.

It established clear grounds for those that would not be involved in the mobilisation, as well as the vague promise of quotas per region. It is worth noting that the decree is likely to disproportionately affect Russia’s poorer regions.

The Russian armed forces are seen as one of the primary careers for young men from Dagestan, for example. This means that there will be more people in Dagestan liable for mobilisation than will be the case in other more affluent areas of Russia.

A decree was signed in 2014 announcing the formation of a voluntary military reserve. It was essentially re-announcing decrees issued in 2012 and 2013 but did lead to a small reserve system being explored experimentally in several regions. From 2016, reservists started participating in all major Russian exercises, although their role in those exercises is not clear. By 2018, Izvestia was reporting on the ‘full-scale formation of a mobilisation reserve’. Former service personnel were able to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defence. In return they would receive a small salary, and be required to attend monthly classes along with annual exercises lasting 20–30 days.

It remains to be seen just how effective these reserve forces may be........but they probably have a better chance than most American Media are giving them.

 

[UncleEd]

Some here seem to think that
during the long, cold winter
military operations will be static.

Some here seem to think that
the Kremlin will just have its
troops hunker down and wait
for nicer weather.

Some here seem to think that
the Ukrainian forces will just
hunker down as well.

That hasn't been the case since
at least WWII when operations
never ceased.

Mechanized warfare--planes,
missiles, rockets, armored
vehicles. sophisticated artillery
---is a most terrible thing.

 

[UncleEd]

To add,

since February, Ukrainians have seen
their people dumped in streets or
put in mass graves. But now with
another coming winter, they'll just
say, aw, what the heck.

Don't judge them by some The
American Conservative Magazine,
Mr. Dr Vermindator.

Yeah, monitors, I'm a bit peeved.
So ban me.

 

[Onomea]

UncleEd, for a relief from peevishness, try the forum's ignore function. It works as advertised.

 

[Tom Beavert]

UncleEd, for a relief from peevishness, try the forum's ignore function. It works as advertised.

Works for me!
TB

 

[Der Verminator]

Thousands of Russian troops are being encircled today.

Putin seems to be allowing the trap to close on his troops.

Is he maneuvering for an excuse to use tactical nuclear weapons?

A mass surrender by thousands of Russian troops would be a huge embarrassment for the already somewhat deranged Russian leader.

Large Russian Force Faces ‘Encirclement’ in Eastern Ukraine - The Moscow Times