According to the Ballistics By the Inch website, most 357 magnum rounds they tested hit their max velocity out of a barrel right around 18" long +/- an inch. So for a handgun, the longest barrel you can get your hands on is going to provide the best velocity and flattest ballistic trajecgory.
In general you are correct. Longer means more velocity in a .357 magnum handgun.
But "hitting their max velocity right around 18" lomg +/- an inch" isn't quite how it works.
The folks over at ballistics by the inch take a barrel and cut it back an inch at a time on a chop saw.
They also test several brands and weights of bullets but they only fire three rounds of each type at each barrel length.
It's hard to come up with something worse than a three round sample size for determining velocity but by golly they found a way to do it. Those three rounds over two chronographs set back to back to generate 6 data points from those three bullets. The variation in each round is the same, they just measure it twice and add in two different sets of random instrumentation error.
It has a negative effect on the data.
Let's look at the Federal 158 gr JSP data from 18" down to 13". Again it's just three shots over two chronographs (first and second columns.
I have added the standard deviation (SD) as BBTI doesn't include it. SD is important as 67% of rounds fired will fall within +/- 1 SD of the average velocity 95% will fall within +/- 2 SD and 99.5% will fall within +/- 3 SD. For practical purposes +/- 3 SD is equal to the expected extreme spread in velocity.
So, with the SD of 30 for the 18" data 67% of the bullets in a box of 50 will have velocities between 1739.5 fps and 1698.5 fps. The extreme spread in the box will be a max of 1780.5 and 1657.5.
Now there are two problems with using SD with a sample of 3 (or 6). Random chance affects the shots fired. In some cases you get lucky and all three shots in the sample are within 1 SD and you get a low SD (like the 13" data) However with three shots the odds are you will also get at least one 2 SD shot, and a larger SD. And if you are as lucky, you will get a couple 2 SD shots and a larger SD. Which is to say, the SD with a small sample tends to be larger than it probably really is.
Ideally you'll shoot three 10 shot groups and include all 30 rounds for the SD calculation. That will give you move very accurate average velocity numbers and an accurate SD.
In the BBTI data the three shot sample also means the velocity isn't very accurate as any one round being in the second or third SD will skew the average velocity significantly higher or lower.
I've added the differences in velocity from bottom to top between each inch of barrel difference. You can see adjacent barrel lengths with differences of -24 to +58, and yet a total difference of only +45 from 13" to 18".
18"
1698 1692
1742 1726
1738 1720
Average = 1719
SD = 20.5
————————— (+30)
17"
1692 1664
1696 1675
1694 1710
Average = 1689
SD =16.4
————————— (-50)
16"
1709 1741
1732 1763
1730 1756
Average = 1739
SD = 19.5
————————— (+31)
15"
1679 1691
1715 1718
1717 1728
Average = 1708
SD = 18.8
————————— (- 24)
14"
1706 1714
1721 1729
1755 1765
Average = 1732
SD = 23.4
————————— (+58)
13"
1672 1677
1668 1668
1680 1678
Average = 1674
SD = 5.2
What it tells me is that it's junk data. Now, if you look across all the .357 data, you might see that in most barrel lengths the highest velocities occur at 16". But the differences between the 16" and 18" velocities are generally less than the SD of those velocities, meaning the differences between velocities are actually less than the shot to shot variation at a given barrel length.
——
In practice I have a Rossi 92 20" short rifle and a Rossi 92 24" rifle that are identical except for barrel length. Based on a 30 round sample, I get an average velocity of 1805 fps with the 20" barrel and 1820 fps with the 24" barrel.
Thats not a big change with 4" more barrel, but it's still an increase. There is still more pressure behind the bullet than in front of it and that's the case until length is well over a yard.
Bullets reach a point where the gain in velocity per inch gets progressively lower, but the extra barrel doesn't cause them to slow down.